Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 121951 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 351 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front and showers exit the mountains this evening. High pressure crosses to north Sunday with some showers east early next week. Brief high pressure, then unsettled to end the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Saturday... Models are in decent agreement with an eastward moving cold front exiting the mountains later this evening. However, band of showers and storms are well ahead of the front in a prefrontal surface trough, will exit the mountains early this evening. High pressure will build in tonight and bring clearing skies to the western half of the area tonight. East of a Charleston to Clarksburg line, light northerly winds above the surface will develop a band of clouds southward across that area overnight. Otherwise, conditions tonight are favorable for river valley fog and where it rains this afternoon. Look for river valley fog later tonight in the west under ideal radiational cooling, and despite more clouds, also look for fog in the east where rain effects will be important. For Sunday, look for plenty of sunshine after early morning fog burns off and clouds in the east scatter out due to mixing with drier air aloft. The big difference for Sunday will be much drier air, but with high temperatures similar to today. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 350 PM Saturday... The period starts with largely zonal flow in the upper levels with the bulk of drier air and high pressure passing north of the area. Increasing moisture east of the Appalachians will begin encroaching into the eastern eastern half of the forecast area. Ripples in the H500 flow may help generate some showers, so included chance PoP. By Tuesday, a building shortwave ridge and surface high pressure will knock any showers back, likely keeping most rain east of the area. Temps will begin a warming trend ahead of another system progged to cross later in the week.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 350 PM Saturday... Operational models still having trouble handling the amplitude and timing of an upper shortwave crossing during this period. Ensemble guidance also exhibits increasing uncertainty with the overall synoptic pattern. Aside from these differences, expecting surface high to slide east with upper troughing and unsettled weather pushing back in late week. Blended guidance yielded PoPs increasing to high end likely through the day Thursday, but knocked them down to chance until confidence increases. Warming trend continues under high pressure through mid week but expecting some cooling once showery/stormy weather sets in late in the week.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 18Z Saturday thru 18Z Sunday... As of 0200 PM Saturday... Eastward moving cold front along the Ohio River at 17Z will exit the mountains by 03Z. Associated line of showers and storms well ahead of the front at 17Z from CKB-CRW-JKL will exit the mountains by 00Z. Thru 03Z... Generally VFR SCT-BKN 4000-6000 feet AGL, briefly lower in convection mainly in the thin line well ahead of the front. Winds ahead of the front west 5 to 10 KTS becoming northwest 5 to 10 KTS behind the front. After 03Z... High pressure building in from the north. Light north winds becoming calm for river and valley locations. While skies will generally clear west of a CKB-CRW line by 02Z, expect MVFR-low VFR ceilings to develop east of this line by 06Z, especially affecting EKN and BKW. Conditions would be favorable for fog after 05Z, especially where it rained and in river valleys. At this time, expect LIFR fog and CRW and EKN, IFR fog at HTS, PKB and CKB, MVFR fog at BKW between 06Z and 13Z. After 13Z...Fog dissipates by 14z and ceilings in the east scatter out for a VFR SCT 4000-6000 foot stratocu field. Exception will be over the far south where mid clouds from a southern system will move across during Sunday. Northerly winds 4 to 8 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low to medium in fog tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog development and intensities may vary considerably tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR fog possible overnight with clearing skies. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...DTC LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...JMV

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