Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 081127 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 627 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure overnight and Friday. Low pressure and cold front likely to bring snow showers Saturday afternoon and night, and again early next week, after a brief, modest warm up on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 615 AM Friday... Had to bump temps from this AM up given insulating low-level cloud cover. Otherwise, forecast on track. As of 350 AM Friday... The period starts with an axis of surface high pressure building up the Ohio Valley into the western lowlands of Central Appalachia. With it, surface dewpoints fall to the teens and low-20`s across the area. Have trended temperatures down through the period according to trends in numerical guidance. A plume of low-level moisture originating from the Great Lakes region continues to produce low-level cloud cover across northern zones. Expecting this to wane by sunrise as deep flow turns westerly and southwesterly. Meanwhile, a strong low- pressure system moves through the southern Piedmont region through the period. As a result, upper- level cloud cover will overspread this area with lowered ceilings favoring the mountain zones. Isolated to scattered snow showers are possible in the eastern mountains at the end of the period as the low pressure center rides up the Atlantic coast. Look for area-wide height and pressure falls Friday night ahead of a clipper system that will bring our next chance for appreciable weather, featured in the short-term.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 AM Friday... A moisture starved cold front will push through the region on Saturday. Nonetheless, it will bring the probability for some scattered snow showers to much of the area. Not expecting much in accumulation through the Lowlands, but can`t rule out a few some spotty areas that see at least a coating of the white stuff. Behind the front on Saturday night we will likely see decent accumulations in the mountains with upper trough swinging through and orographic accent in the NW flow. Generally, at this time it appears 1 to 3 inches looks possible. Conditions will improve through the day Sunday, but temperatures will be well below average behind the front. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 425 AM Friday... We will start the next work week with a brief warmup before another cold front pushes in on Tuesday. Southerly flow out ahead of the front will send temperatures into the mid to upper 40s on Monday, but the rest of the long term looks to return temperatures to well below normal once again. Models are in fairly good agreement with the front and upper trough moving through Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will bring the threat for more snow, with possibly the entire forecast area seeing some light accumulation. GEFS are showing 500mb height anomalies of 3 to 4 standard deviations with the deep upper trough overhead Tuesday night. There looks to be a threat for some potential snow squalls Tuesday evening through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings are indicating steep lapse rates and potential Great Lake moisture filtering in on the north-northwest flow, so we will have to monitor how the timing of the forecast unfolds as this cold impact the Tuesday afternoon commute in some areas. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 615 AM Friday... SCT to BKN MVFR decks still plague all sites with the exception of PKB, who has gone CLR by this time. Guidance has trended toward keeping this low stratocu, especially for WV lowlands, through the morning hours. Cloud decks lift to VFR by 15Z. Visibility remains VFR. Winds for the most part remain west-southwesterly through Friday and turn more southerly Friday night into Saturday. A storm system skirting to the southeast through the Carolinas and Virginia has the potential for light snow showers and lowered cats in the mountains Friday night into Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SCT decks may briefly go BKN and vice versa this morning. More dramatic cig and vsby drops are possible Friday night with storm system moving through Piedmont to SE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 12/08/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in snow showers Saturday afternoon and night, mainly in the mountains at night, and then again Monday night through Tuesday, again mainly in the mountains.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/MC NEAR TERM...MC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...MC

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