Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190532 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 132 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weather remains unsettled with a warm front crossing overnight and Wednesday, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night. Low pressure keeps rain in the forecast through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1020 PM Tuesday... Trimmed PoPs tonight per current trends, as dry air continues to east up showers despite theta e feed / warm advection upglide. Left High chance Pops in after overnight into Wednesday morning as showers to the south move north and additional showers can easily pop up in the nocturnal / early morning warm advection / elevated instability. As of 805 PM Tuesday... Forecast generally on track as warm advection showers initially have dry air to fight as they move northward tonight. Temperatures were raised and dew points lowered north early tonight per current trends. The MAV appeared to have a decent handle on the dew points. As of 120 PM Tuesday... Main band of clouds cover southern half of the CWA and these expected to spread northward in response to approaching wave from the southwest. Weak frontogenetic forcing at mid levels over the ohio valley through tonight should help squeeze out a few showers, mainly on a line south of the I-64 corridor. Elsewhere, atmospheric column fairly dry and only light qpf amounts are expected. Used a models blend for temps, giving deference to clouds cover expected on the over night which should keep min temps up a bit. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Weak upper level vorticity max passes Wednesday night/early Thursday, ahead of a cold front poised to pass Thursday night. Entering a more active period in terms of showers and thunderstorms, while getting into a more spring like airmass with dewpoints making the climb into the low 60s. So, will carry a thunderstorm threat in the grids given the setup, but largely of the non severe variety for now. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Cold front stall south of the CWA, then lifts back north into the southern mountains heading into the weekend where it appears to stall out. This will necessitate a watchful eye for repeated hits in terms of rain, but will not add a mention in the HWO just yet. Could see more rounds of showers and storms than continuous rain, so breaks in the action could mitigate any water hazard threat. Otherwise, the active trend continues, trending higher than normal amounts of rain in general across the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Wednesday... A warm front lifts northward through the area this morning and through the day today. Overall, ceilings are in the 5K ft range, but ceilings may lower to MVFR across the Southern half of West Virginia with light rain showers. The highest confidence of MVFR ceilings will be at BKW with lower confidence at HTS and CRW. The front will take on a north to south orientation this afternoon. East of the front, CKB and EKN are likely to remain VFR in downslope flow. BKW will likely see MVFR stratocu on strong gusty southeast upslope winds with obscuration of the higher ridges possible. While showers remain possible Wednesday, thunderstorms will become possible west of the front by later this afternoon, but still little confidence in storm development so will leave out of TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR ceilings may differ this morning. Isold IFR may occur with heavier rain showers and possibly thunderstorms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/19/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night, as a cold front approaches, and then in stratus behind the front overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/26 NEAR TERM...KMC/TRM SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MPK

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