Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250806 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 406 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler today through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers. Dry midweek under high pressure. Progressive pattern takes hold late in week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Minor flooding continues across portions of SE Ohio and NE Kentucky. Waters will recede slowly in many locations. High pressure will provide mostly clear skies today and tonight. This will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 70s lowlands ranging to around 70F higher elevations. Dry conditions will continue through tonight. Areas of fog could be possible later overnight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Saturday... Cooler and drier in the short term period as upper shortwave trough and surface high pressure remain in control. Could be a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm Monday and Tuesday as the upper trough pushes farther south into the region, but most areas should remain dry. Temperatures during the period actually look to be below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday... High pressure will rebuild into the region mid week, for a return of dry and warm weather. However, a progressive pattern will take hold for the remainder of the period, along with increasing heat and humidity once again, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous again as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 725 PM Saturday... IR satellite imagery show mostly clear skies across the region. Dry conditions as a consequence of a building high pressure will prevail through Sunday. Abundant low level moisture persists over the area as dewpoints remains in the 60s. However, there will be a gentle breeze that can prevent dense fog formation overnight. Therefore, went with VFR conditions mostly everywhere except MVFR at EKN. Diurnal low level cu should develop this afternoon dissipating around sunset. Widespread VFR conditions will continue tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation tonight may be more widespread. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L M H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog early Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...JSH/ARJ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ

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