Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221328 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 828 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 820 AM UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION A BIT SLOWER TO PICK UP THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO LOWERED TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS ALSO PROMPTED AN EXTENSION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM. HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE CALLS FROM MORGAN COUNTY OHIO OF FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ON ROADS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE GONE. THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06 TUESDAY. WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION. SHORTWAVES ARE MORE EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW. TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009. OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066- 067-075-076-083>086. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...MZ/JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JW

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