Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270704 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 304 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION INTENSITY WANES AND WE TRANSITION TO A MORE STRATIFORM EVENT. FILLING UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING SURFACE SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...ACTUALLY DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPC GOING WITH A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MARGINAL RISK TERRITORY. LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MORNING AFTER THE CURRENT BATCH OF RAIN EXITS IS A CULPRIT IN THIS CASE. LOW LEVELS FLOWS ARE WEAK...AND INSTABILITY OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE MINIMAL...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY. SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WAS IN AN ABNORMALLY DRY STATE BEFORE THE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING NORTH TODAY...PRODUCING CONSISTENT RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO RE EVALUATE THIS AFTER TODAY...HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON EXACT TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW IA/IL...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR POP/QPF OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO PA AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE POPS DRYING OUT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS NE. USED A BLEND OF BIAS- CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ENDING UP A TOUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS USING A CONSENSUS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TIMING OF PRECIP. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WAVES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF CKB...WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. UPON EXIT...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO FORM IN ITS WAKE...AND ALREADY SEE HINTS OF WHAT IS TO COME AT PKB WHERE CEILINGS ARE DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. LOW END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS IN QUESTION AFTER RAIN EXITS THIS MORNING. TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/27/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L L M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L L M M H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...26

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