Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 230725 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 225 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BUT BRINGS RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND T0DAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG AND WEST OF THE OH RIVER. AFTER THIS MORNINGS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...CWA WILL BE LEFT IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AS BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH. WE THEN LOWER POPS FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AS ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES SOME DRYING WITH LARGER SCALE WWA. ALONG AND WEST THE OH RIVER...LEFT HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN PLACE IN REGION NORTH OF WHERE SFC LOW TO FORM...WHERE SOME UPWARD FORCING EXISTS. POPS THEN RAMP UPWARDS TO CATEGORICAL TONIGHT AS MAIN SFC LOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...AND INCREASED MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AS WILL AS MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE BOARD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... STILL LOOKS LIKE AN INTERESTING SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT IT APPEARS THE CHANCE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS QUITE SMALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY ONLY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE FASTEST MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST... FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF AND NAM. END RESULT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION...BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH...AND/OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE WEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY BY LATE CHRISTMAS. MODELS INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND ONLY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SO ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CHRISTMAS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE A WELCOME RETURN WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY 00Z...MODELS DIVERGE WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS FOR POPS AS THAT SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ECMWF. SOME WAVINESS AROUND THE TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY MIX AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW TWEAKS. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GENERALLY A MIXED BAG OF VFR AND MVFR TO START THE PERIOD AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. INTRODUCED MENTION OF PRECIP EITHER IN THE FORM OF VCSH OR AS A -RA VISBY RESTRICTION AT MOST SITES AS BATCH RAIN SHOWERS WORKS NORTH ALONG THE KY-WV BORDER. ALSO LENGTHENED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KBKW BASED ON LATEST SAT IR AND RADAR TRENDS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE COALFIELDS AND ACROSS THE OH RIVER SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT NOT BY MUCH AS WAA HELPS LIFT CIGS SOME. WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS AREA WIDE BY 18Z. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN. S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 12/23/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H M M H H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H M M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NT INTO WED...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WED NT...AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/LS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...KMC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.