Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 252355 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 755 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...SOME CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THANKS TO A LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AT BAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST AS CLOUDS ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL YIELD A DRY FORECAST WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BESIDES BEING A TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST THE CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. FEEL THAT A STRATUS DECK WILL DEVELOP...AND INHIBIT THE FOG FORMATION. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION LIFTS OUT THIS PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY THIS PERIOD. NIGHT TIME MINS WILL STILL BE CHILLY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THANKS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. LESS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WITH CLOUDS AROUND AND WITH WIND OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5 TO 10KTS...DON`T SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESS CLOUDS...BUT THE NW WIND IS EXPECTED TO STAY UP AND LIMIT CHANCES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR FOG MAY VARY...IF IT FORMS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/26/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/JS/JMV NEAR TERM...FB/JS SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JS

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