Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211836 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 236 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS. WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS. HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...RPY

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