Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 271506 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1106 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS TODAY. UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO OUR EAST SUNDAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE SOME CIRRUS DRIFTING THROUGH FROM SW TO NE TODAY...BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST RESULTING IN ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME THICKER CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR A TIME MONDAY FOR A FEW COUNTIES FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW AND INTO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR SNOWSHOE. THOUGH THE CMC SOLUTION KEEPS WHOLE CWA DRY. OTHERWISE LEFT A LOT OF INTERIOR SE OHIO WITH POPS AOB 14 PCT/NO MENTION OF PCPN. THIS MAKES FOR A TIGHT POP GRADIENT FROM S OF HTS...CRW TO EKN. OF COURSE...NO ORGANIZED FRONT...JUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING UP THE BACK/WESTERN SIDE OF THE WEAKENING 500 MB RIDGE MOVING OFF EAST COAST. THE 00Z GFS TRIED TO HANG ON TO THE WEAK 500 MB TROF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND DELAYED THE EXIT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL LEANED TOWARD THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING TO OUR E/SE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. YET...IN THE WEAK FLOW...STILL THINK PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL LINGER. EVEN ADDED SOME DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WHERE POPS WERE HIGHEST EARLIER ON MONDAY. ECWMF STILL CONSISTENT AND STRONGEST ON THE SEPARATE 500 MB DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH DROPPING SE AND SHARPENING UP... WHILE PASSING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP SOME 20 AND 30 POPS WITH THAT FEATURE MOSTLY FOR WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. HAD WARMEST TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OHIO WHILE HOLDING CENTRAL AND SRN WV MOUNTAINS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... REINFORCING SHORT WAVE CLIPPER LIKE FEATURE DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS. THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER AIR TROUGH/SOUTHERN SYSTEM TO BE PULLED INTO OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MID WEEK. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WENT WITH HPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCATTERED CIRRUS DRIFTING BY TODAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW CU ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS COMING IN TONIGHT...SO HAVE LESS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH...ONLY MVFR. STILL INCLUDED LIFR AT EKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.