Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 192350 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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730 PM UPDATE... ADDED FROST TO THE FCST IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOG FOR THE DEEPER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN LAST NT. INCREASED DEW POINTS SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLIER MON WITH INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. PREV DISCN... COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ELSEWHERE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD...MOVES AWAY TO THE E OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FORM IN DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...HAVE EKN VLIFR 06-13Z. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FOR BRIEF IFR FOG AT PKB 08-10Z. THERE MAY BE FOG ALONG THE ELK RIVER BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT OVER THE PLATEAU AT CRW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND MON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. OTHERWISE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MON IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR. AFTER A CALM NT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SW ON MON AND BE A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON. LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO SW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SW ON MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG MAY NOT FORM AT PKB. DENSE FOG AT EKN MAY NOT BE AS PERSISTENT AS FCST 06-13Z. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MON...AND MORE MVFR CIGS THAN FCST MON...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 10/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR IN STRATUS TUE INTO WED...ESPECIALLY AT NT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...JS/TRM SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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