Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240846 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 446 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front exits eastern mountains this morning. High pressure builds providing dry conditions. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 430 AM Saturday... Rainfall has diminished or moved out of the area. Sent a quick update to cancel the flash flood watch. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 320 AM Saturday... Sfc analysis and radar images show the cold front moving east across WV to reach the eastern mountains by sunrise. Meanwhile, light rain will accompany the cold front with very little change in temperatures. High pressure ridge builds along the OH River through tonight. This high pressure will bring dry and fresh air mass to the area. A flash flood watch will probably be allow to expire at 6 AM. Some creeks and rivers are still running high and some are above flood stage especially in northeast KY due to recent rainfall. A river flood warning remains in effect for the Little Sandy River at Grayson as it remains above flood stage.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 445 AM Saturday... Reinforcing shots of progressively cooler air arrive this period, on a series upper level short wave troughs that act to deepen the long wave trough position over the eastern U.S. The final short wave may finally be able to summon enough moisture for a shower or thunderstorm north come Tuesday. Canadian high pressure builds in for the finale...as the nadir of this cool spell is reached under clear, calm conditions Wednesday morning.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 445 AM Saturday... This period begins with an increase in temperature and moisture, as an upper level long wave trough over the eastern U.S., moves off to the east. With the upper level high over the southwestern U.S. backing away, the upper level flow flattens. Increasing moisture in a return low level south to southwest flow around the surface high exiting to the east, and weak upper level short wave troughs in the flattening flow, will increase the chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Thursday and especially Friday. A stronger upper level short wave trough and surface frontal system will bring a better chance for less diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms next Saturday. Central guidance temperatures accepted, which show warming and then leveling off above normal, especially at night.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 145 AM Saturday... Radar images show most of the rain exiting the eastern mountains, while a boundary brings a fine line of light showers into southeast OH at the beginning of the period. This boundary could produce a change in winds more to the west northwest. Coded MVFR conditions for the most part except IFR ceilings at BKN and HTS per latest sfc obs. A low stratus deck could develop and bring IFR ceilings during the predawn hours. By 15Z...expect VFR conditions should prevail across the entire area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of MVFR/IFR conditions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 06/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L M H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M L H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog Saturday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ

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