Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261909 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 205 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER AIR SQUEEZES OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIPPER LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST IN WAKE OF EAST COAST STORM. DRIER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS 18Z TO 00Z. WILL STILL LEAVE A POSSIBLE INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS THE AIR TURNS COLDER...AND BETTER CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES. CERTAINLY THE COLD IS THE MAIN STORY THE NEXT 36 HOURS...OVER ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW IN SNOW SHOWERS. BROAD 850 MB THERMAL TROF ON FRIDAY AT MINUS 18 TO MINUS 19C...BUT LATE FEBRUARY SUN SHOULD STILL HAVE AN EFFECT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY TO RECOVER TEMPERATURE A BIT IN THE LOWLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TOUGH TO FIGURE FOR DAWN...SINCE HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS BECOME...IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...IS ALSO IN QUESTION. WILL TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AFTER SUNSET..SAY BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE IMPENDING COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN...MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT. FIRST...ALL MODELS HAVE WHAT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE LEFT FROM AN EXITING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH ENDING EARLY FRIDAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA DURING FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A MODERATING TREND...AND TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 30S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA...BUT ALLOW A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL TRACK A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TO JUST NORTH AND WEST OF US...AND LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. LOOK FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP MAY START AS A WINTRY MIX...BUT THEN GO OVER TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY MORNING AS A GOOD WARM SURGE PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE 40S. THEN...HERE COMES THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY CHANGE THE RAIN BACK TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY DECREASES. RAIN AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS THE REGION MID WEEK. FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN TO START...BUT TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MID WEEK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTH THROUGH OHIO. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...AND PW VALUES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BASED ON THE PATH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE A BRIEF DRY SLOT DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WV LOWLANDS...BUT TOO EARLY TO FIGURE THAT IN AT THIS POINT. WITH THE RAIN...COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AT THIS TIME...AS IT IS SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE EVENT...AND ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN IN THE MODEL RUNS UNTIL THEN...THUS CHANGING THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONFIDENCE SET AT MEDIUM...DUE TO QUESTIONS ON HOW EXTENSIVE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REFORM IN THE COLDER...BUT DRIER...ARCTIC AIR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT 18Z...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES 18Z TO 00Z. YET...IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SOME 15 HND TO 3 THSD FT BKN CEILINGS SHOULD REFORM 03Z TO 06Z ESPECIALLY IN WEST VIRGINIA. SOME MVFR VSBY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY 04Z TO 14Z. MOSTLY VFR AFTER 14Z FRIDAY IN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LESS STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS THAN EXPECTED ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER BUT DRIER ARCTIC AIR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KTB

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