Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020903 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 430 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY FORECAST REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON NT. THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE W ON MON...THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT AN INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING IN THE MORNING MAY BREAK UP AS IT ENTERS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AT ANY RATE...THE LATE DAY / EVENING TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS ITS DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED 30-40 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW COULD CONVERT DIURNAL HEATING TO 1 TO 2 GRAND OF CAPE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AS DEPICTED BY SPC IN THEIR SWODY2 OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4 DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CAPE AND DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FARTHER E. WILL ADD AN HWO MENTION FOR MAINLY THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT BARELY GETS THROUGH THE FCST AREA MON NT BEFORE THE W-E ORIENTED TRAILING PORTION OF IT SLOWS DOWN OR EVEN STALLS. THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS S LINGERING THROUGH TUE NT...MAINLY FOR JUST SHOWERS. BLENDED IN MET/MAV FOR HIGHS FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE...AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOWS MON NT...AGAIN FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE. BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N. THE MEX SEEMED A BIT HIGH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/02/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L L L M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L M H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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