Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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917 FXUS61 KRLX 140715 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 215 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A front straddles the area through the weekend and into next week. An organized cold front comes through mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM Saturday... Periods of light rain training west to east through the forecast area along a stationary front. Colder air to the north inching closer and will brush our northern counties with freezing rain. It likely will not come far enough south to have any significant impacts in the southern most advised counties, but not confident enough to shave off a row of counties given the hour. Drastically decreased amounts in the mountains given the warmer obs, but still have a tenth to two tenths of ice in the farthest east portions of Randolph County. A break in the moisture feed will bring a lull in PoPs tonight && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday... A high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region south into our area Sunday night. This high will push a cold front further south and bring a break in PCPN Sunday evening into Monday morning. The front becomes stationary south of the area. The flow becomes northwest keeping sfc temperatures near freezing across the northern sections and the northeast mountains. If it rains, it will freeze upon contact with elevated surfaces. But models are in agreement with a aforementioned lull in PCPN. A series of short waves will pass along the stationary boundary to produce additional rain showers Monday. With soggy ground, much of this will be runoff, so do expect rises on streams and rivers, however flooding not anticipated at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... A high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region south into our area Sunday night. This high will push a cold front further south and bring a break in PCPN Sunday evening into Monday morning. The front becomes stationary south of the area. The flow becomes northwest keeping sfc temperatures near freezing across the northern sections and the northeast mountains. If it rains, it will freeze upon contact with elevated surfaces. But models are in agreement with a aforementioned lull in PCPN. A series of short waves will pass along the stationary boundary to produce additional rain showers Monday. With soggy ground, much of this will be runoff, so do expect rises on streams and rivers, however flooding not anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 00Z Saturday thru 00Z Sunday... As of 1245 AM Saturday... Stationary front stalled across area making for a tricky TAF forecast. Very difficult to decipher between a VFR/IFR TAF. Went with the more pessimistic approach due to the shear number of restricted flight cats out there. Generally should remain sub- VFR for most of TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Temporary scattered breaks to VFR quite possible. VFR likely at times south of rain shield. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 01/14/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L M L HTS CONSISTENCY L M H H H H M L M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M L M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L M L M M M M L AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Saturday night and Sunday in rain showers and a wintry mix, especially north. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ009>011-017-019-020-031-032-523-524-526. OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW/30 NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JW

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