Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241031 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 631 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STRONGER FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... RIVER VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TO DEVELOP SOME DAYTIME CU...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...A SHORTWAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT PRODUCES SHOWERS AND A STORM ALONG ITS PATH. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING IN THEIR QPF FIELDS. DELAYED POPS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY...KEEPING SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES AT H500 WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORM THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO THE ADJUST MET NUMBERS FOR LOWS...AND CLOSER TO THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERALLY USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKING. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO REGION AND WEAKENS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN PUSHES EAST LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY... IFR/VLIFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RIVER VALLEYS...GENERALLY AFTER 08Z. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER 13-14Z FOR A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TONIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE BECOMES SPARSE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF FOG BURN OFF. ALSO SLIGHTLY CONCERNED ABOUT INTENSITY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/24/15 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/MZ/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JW

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