Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 051934
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
234 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016
Low pressure crosses Tuesday. Weak high pressure in charge Wednesday.
A cold front crosses early Thursday, followed by much colder
weather into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday...
Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations
indicate patchy low level clouds continue across the forecast
area. In addition...mid and upper level clouds have already begun
to push northeast ahead of an area of low pressure which is
located over the Gulf of Mexico.
These clouds should lower and thicken tonight, as the low
pressure system approaches from the southwest. The system is
expected to be located over the Tennessee Valley late tonight.
In response, an area of rain is expected to push northeast. Latest
model guidance indicates the onset of the rain will be a little
slower than previous runs and have adjusted PoPs to reflect this
trend. By the time the precipitation reaches the northern West
Virginia counties, low-level temperatures could be cold enough for
the precipitation to fall in the form of freezing rain.
The low should weaken and push into the upper Ohio Valley by late
Tuesday, with precipitation overspreading the entire area by late
Tuesday morning. Temperatures should remain cold enough for
freezing rain across portions of Randolph and Pocahontas Counties
through the morning hours, with some localized areas of extreme
eastern Randolph possibly seeing freezing rain into the afternoon
Overall ice accumulations should range from a trace to around 10
inches, with the highest ice accumulations anticipated across the
eastern slopes. Current thinking is that elevated surfaces will
be impacted the most.
The precipitation should taper off from the west by late Tuesday
as the system pushes northeast.
Latest temperature guidance is close to previous numbers. So only
made some tweaks.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Monday...
High pressure moves back into the region for Wednesday and brings
back a brief period of dry weather before next cold front arrives
Thursday. On Thursday, strong cold front pushes through the region
and will bring snow showers and well below average temperatures
with it. In the NW flow the favorable upslope regions will have
the best chance to see accumulating snowfall, however even the
lowlands may see a very light accumulation but moisture is
limited. Thursday night is expected to be one of the coldest so
far this season, with H850 falling to -15C will likely translate
to widespread lows in the teens with single digits possible in the
mountains. Wind chills could be an issue as well, with conditions
reaching as low as minus 10 across parts of the Northern
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...
The cold temperatures and NW flow will remain over the region for
Friday and isolated snow showers could still be a possibility.
Temperatures will remain slightly below average into the weekend.
Overall the pattern looks to be zonal with several disturbances
quickly moving through the flow into the early half of next week,
but the lack of moisture and the fast moving nature of the systems
should keep precipitation amounts fairly light.
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 AM Monday....
Patchy low level clouds with some MVFR conditions were located
across the forecast area.
A Low Pressure system will approach from the southwest through the
period. In response, mid and high level clouds should lower and
thicken with MVFR conditions in rain expected across the south
The precipitation should then overspread the entire area by 13Z
with IFR or lower conditions spreading northeast between expected
should quickly deteriorate with IFR or lower between 09Z and 16z.
Some of the precipitation could fall in the form of freezing rain
across the northern West Virginia mountains between 07Z and 18Z.
Light winds will prevail through the evening with east to
southeast winds expected to develop tonight. Southeast winds will
become gusty on the ridges toward 12Z Tuesday with lighter
southeast easts anticipated across the remainder of the area after
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated ifr or
worse conditions may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H M L
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in rain on Tuesday afternoon, and in possible snow
showers, mainly in the mountains, Thursday through Thursday night.
WV...Freezing Rain Advisory from 2 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for