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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 051750
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1250 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAY BRUSH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
OVERALL...A RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1230 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR HOURLY
ADJUSTMENTS PER TRENDS. DID DELAY INCREASE IN SKY COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECT A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES BY THE 21Z TIME FRAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME LOW DEAD CLOUDS AROUND 1 TO 2 THSD FT AGL HAVE BEEN SNEAKING
NE...UNDER THE CIRRUS COVER ALOFT...IN THE WEAK 925 MB FLOW. USING
THE POOR MAN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THIS FINGER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RUNS NORTHEAST...UP THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS EVEN REACHED UP TOWARD CKB AT 07Z. THE 925 MB
FLOW TURNS WEAK NORTH AROUND 15Z. THINKING ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS AT
THAT LEVEL WILL BE NUDGED BACK S TOWARD TOWARD THE KY/VA BORDER
AREA. BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THEIR COVERAGE AND TIMING. AS A
RESULT...MORNING CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES IN QUESTION
IN THE MIDST OF THIS GRAVEYARD SHIFT. AS THE CIRRUS THINS...GOES
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL COME INTO PLAY MORE.

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO NORTH EVEN AT 850 MB TODAY...LOWER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE PROCESS.  SO NO MAJOR WARM UP FOR TODAY.
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY KEEP AN INVERSION ALOFT TODAY...SO COULD SEE
SOME HAZE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 925/850 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

WAS A BIT SLOWER INCREASING THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH...AHEAD OF THE OVERNIGHT WEAK DISTURBANCE.

THAT WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DOES PASS
THROUGH EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 00Z TO 06Z
THURSDAY.  DECIDED TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTH...ROUGHLY THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR NORTH.

FLOW KEEPS VEERING TONIGHT...SO THAT THE 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...UPSLOPE MAY FORM MORE LOW CLOUDS IN OUR POCAHONTAS COUNTY
AND EASTERN RANDOLPH...BUT HOW FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES WAS
QUESTIONABLE.   WITH THE COOLING MOSTLY AOB 4 THSD FT...TRIED TO
HOLD ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET WARMER TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SHORT TERM GETS
STARTED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM BREWING IN THE SE US. NAM
HAS HAD SOME FLIP-FLOP ISSUES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WHEN DEALING
WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500MB LOW. YESTERDAYS 12Z...AND THE NEW 00Z RUN
BOTH PRODUCE A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH SLOWS THE ENTIRE FLOW DOWN...AND THEN AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK WEST INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO TRENDS A BIT NW WITH THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS THE 12Z NAM. THE REST OF THE
MODELS...AND AS MENTIONED...THE OFF HOUR NAM RUNS KEEP EVERYTHING
PROGRESSIVE AND MOSTLY SE OF CWA. WILL INCREASE POPS JUST A TOUCH
ACROSS EXTREME SW CWA...USING THE ECMWF AS A GUIDE. WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW...WILL LIKELY HAVE A COLD WEDGE IN PLACE ON EASTERN SLOPES
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FOR THOSE EASTERN
SLOPE LOCATIONS AS 850S WARM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH POPS
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO YET.
HOWEVER SHOULD A LARGER NUMBER OF MODELS START TRENDING
WESTWARD...CONCERN FOR SOME SORT OF WINTRY IMPACT WOULD INCREASE.
THE 850MB WAA WILL LEAD TO NON-DIURNAL TEMPS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. OVERALL...HAVE A WARMING TREND FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS SE OHIO COULD KEEP THINGS
A BIT COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED.  NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES
WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AS L/W TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA.  THIS
IS A HIGH HEIGHT WNW FLOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NRN
STREAM...SO TEMPERATURES STAY CLOSE TO NORMAL.  ALSO...SRN STREAM
AND ITS SERIES OF SMALL CLOSED OFF LOWS...REMAINS PRECARIOUSLY
CLOSE...SO THAT ANY OF THESE CLOSED LOWS CAN EVENTUALLY BECOME AN
ISSUE.  THE ECMWFHIRES HAS BACKED OFF ON ONE OF THESE FOR DAY
7...ITS PREVIOUS SOLN SHOWING ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
RIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

PERIOD OPENS WITH E COAST STORM HAVING JUST PAST S OF THE AREA...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED OFF LOW.  FCST AREA
REMAINS DRY FRI NT INTO SAT UNDER SFC RIDGING BETWEEN IT...AND NEXT
NRN STREAM COLD FRONT.  THIS...WHICH CROSSES LATE SAT...AND THE NEXT
FRONT...WHICH CROSSES DAY 7 TUE...DO NOT FEATURE ARCTIC OUTBREAKS IN
THEIR WAKE LIKE THEIR PREDECESSORS DID...AS THE PATTERN IS LESS
AMPLIFIED.  AS SUCH...THESE FRONTS DO NOT FEATURE MUCH INFLOW AHEAD
OF THEM EITHER...SO ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.

BLENDED IN SOME MEX / BIAS CORRECTED MEX AND MOSGUIDE TEMPERATURES.
NOT FAR FROM WPC...AND CLOSE TO PREVIOUS EXCEPT ON HIGHS
LATE...WHICH WERE CONSIDERABLY LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT BECOMING BROKEN AT 4-6KFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS ROUGHLY ATHENS OHIO TO PKB TO CKB BY 21Z WED - 00Z
THU. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES IN THESE LOCATIONS PRIMARILY BTWN 00Z
-06Z THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT THAT VIS WILL REMAIN IN LOW VFR RANGE
THOUGH BRIEF HIGH MVFR VIS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FORM MORE STRATUS CLOUDS
06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. SOME QUESTION STILL
REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR NORTHWEST DOWN THE WINDWARD SIDE THESE
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...WHICH LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE MORNING TAF
AT BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR LOW STRATUS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50