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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 192352
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
734 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...KEPT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES FLOATING AROUND THE
OHIO VALLEY WHICH IDS TOUCHING OFF THE ACTIVITY. SOME SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIT THE FOG HARDER GIVEN
THE WET GROUND...NEAR CALM WIND AND ANTICIPATED BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOW...WHAT A YUCKY DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...MORE
REMINISCENT OF FALL. IN FACT MANY AREAS BARELY ABLE TO SURPASS THE
70 DEGREE MARK TODAY IN THE LOWLANDS. ALL TIME RECORD LOW MAXES
FOR MONTH OF JULY APPEAR SAFE AT ALL SITES.

S/W TROF AND EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SLIDE OFF TO NE AND WEAKEN
INTO THIS EVENING...TAKING MUCH OF THE STEADIER RAINS WITH IT.
LEFT SOME SCHC POPS IN OVERNIGHT FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA WITH BEST
SHOT ACROSS S WV. NOT SURE HOW MUCH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT. OF COURSE THAT WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN
FACTORS IN HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FG COMBINED WITH MAGNITUDE OF
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. SREF PROBS AND NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LOW STRATUS AND FG WOULD BE CONFINED MORE INTO C OH AND C KY WHILE
LAMP GUIDANCE SLAMS AREA IN THE DIRT OVERNIGHT. WILL PLAY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH PREV FORECAST GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND KEEP DENSE
FG OVER SE OH.

TOMORROW...COLUMN IS DRY ABV H85 AND WITH OVERALL FLOW BECOMING
RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...WILL CONT WITH SCHC POPS THRU THE DAY WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHRA TO GENERATE ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THUNDER W OF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL UNDER UPPER TROUGH WITH SOME 500 MB VORT IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND UPPER LOW...BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT BAY.
TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FOR MINOR CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT ARRIVES
AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS OFF OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A DECAYING
MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS GOOD IN
FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW AND A
DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO.
ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR AVIATION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STICK AROUND TONIGHT. LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EXPECT A GENERAL TREND TO IFR AT MOST TERMINALS
BY 08Z...BUT HIGHLY VARIABLE CEILINGS/VSBY...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLOUDS BREAK OVERNIGHT AND HOW MUCH THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 13Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY BECOMING VFR CEILINGS BY
16Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER...AT ANY
TIME...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: VERY LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSE VALLEY/RIVER FOG MAY BE MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SHOULD BREAKS IN CLOUDS MATERIALIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 07/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JW
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...JMV