Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 051934 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 234 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure crosses Tuesday. Weak high pressure in charge Wednesday. A cold front crosses early Thursday, followed by much colder weather into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 PM Monday... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate patchy low level clouds continue across the forecast area. In addition...mid and upper level clouds have already begun to push northeast ahead of an area of low pressure which is located over the Gulf of Mexico. These clouds should lower and thicken tonight, as the low pressure system approaches from the southwest. The system is expected to be located over the Tennessee Valley late tonight. In response, an area of rain is expected to push northeast. Latest model guidance indicates the onset of the rain will be a little slower than previous runs and have adjusted PoPs to reflect this trend. By the time the precipitation reaches the northern West Virginia counties, low-level temperatures could be cold enough for the precipitation to fall in the form of freezing rain. The low should weaken and push into the upper Ohio Valley by late Tuesday, with precipitation overspreading the entire area by late Tuesday morning. Temperatures should remain cold enough for freezing rain across portions of Randolph and Pocahontas Counties through the morning hours, with some localized areas of extreme eastern Randolph possibly seeing freezing rain into the afternoon hours. Overall ice accumulations should range from a trace to around 10 inches, with the highest ice accumulations anticipated across the eastern slopes. Current thinking is that elevated surfaces will be impacted the most. The precipitation should taper off from the west by late Tuesday as the system pushes northeast. Latest temperature guidance is close to previous numbers. So only made some tweaks. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 135 PM Monday... High pressure moves back into the region for Wednesday and brings back a brief period of dry weather before next cold front arrives Thursday. On Thursday, strong cold front pushes through the region and will bring snow showers and well below average temperatures with it. In the NW flow the favorable upslope regions will have the best chance to see accumulating snowfall, however even the lowlands may see a very light accumulation but moisture is limited. Thursday night is expected to be one of the coldest so far this season, with H850 falling to -15C will likely translate to widespread lows in the teens with single digits possible in the mountains. Wind chills could be an issue as well, with conditions reaching as low as minus 10 across parts of the Northern Mountains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM Monday... The cold temperatures and NW flow will remain over the region for Friday and isolated snow showers could still be a possibility. Temperatures will remain slightly below average into the weekend. Overall the pattern looks to be zonal with several disturbances quickly moving through the flow into the early half of next week, but the lack of moisture and the fast moving nature of the systems should keep precipitation amounts fairly light. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 620 AM Monday.... Patchy low level clouds with some MVFR conditions were located across the forecast area. A Low Pressure system will approach from the southwest through the period. In response, mid and high level clouds should lower and thicken with MVFR conditions in rain expected across the south after 05Z. The precipitation should then overspread the entire area by 13Z with IFR or lower conditions spreading northeast between expected should quickly deteriorate with IFR or lower between 09Z and 16z. Some of the precipitation could fall in the form of freezing rain across the northern West Virginia mountains between 07Z and 18Z. Light winds will prevail through the evening with east to southeast winds expected to develop tonight. Southeast winds will become gusty on the ridges toward 12Z Tuesday with lighter southeast easts anticipated across the remainder of the area after 12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated ifr or worse conditions may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in rain on Tuesday afternoon, and in possible snow showers, mainly in the mountains, Thursday through Thursday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freezing Rain Advisory from 2 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ523>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/MPK NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JSH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.