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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 141404
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1004 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND STALLS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
INGESTED RECENT OBS AND TWEAKED SKY COVER TO REFLECT APPROACHING
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL ALLOW ONGOING
FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPS ACROSS EAST AND
HIGH TERRAIN CLOSE TO IF NOT ALREADY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK WITH
ADJACENT LOCATIONS TO THE WEST IN THE LOW/MID 30S.

COLLABORATED WITH SPC TO CONFIRM THAT THEIR DAY ONE GENERAL
COVERAGE...WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND NOT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THAT...ELECTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WITH NO NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE
MODELS OR SHORT-TERM NWP DEPICTING ANY QPF. NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS
AROUND THE AREA BEAR THIS OUT...WITH MEAGER LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
SOME MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES ABOVE 750MB...BUT WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS BELOW 750MB...SUSPECT SOME ECHOES MAY SHOW
UP ON RADAR BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO SPRINKLES AT BEST.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS NORTH. INHERITED MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND
PERHAPS MID 70S LOWLANDS STILL ON TRACK.

WILL CONTINUE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN. BY 00Z WED VORT MAX
PROGGED TO PUSH SE-WARD JUST TO THE NORTHEAST WITH BEST LIFT JUST
OUTSIDE OF FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT EKN/CKB WITH ABOUT
2KFT OF SATURATION BY 06Z AT AND ABOVE 850MB. SIMULTANEOUSLY AN
850MB JET FORMS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF AREA WITH NOSE OF JET/BEST
CONVERGENCE AT 850MB JUST OVER THE NE CORNER OF FORECAST AREA AND
INTO FAR NE WV AND WESTERN MD. 500J+ OF MUCAPE LIFTED AT 850MB IN THAT
AREA AS WELL AND THUS THE CONTINUATION OF THE THUNDER MENTION. ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY 09Z AND ENDED BY 12Z WED. LITTLE
CHANGE WITH PREV FCST MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WARM FRONT LIFTING TO OUR NORTH BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE ONCE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO
FAR...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS...INTO THE LOWER
80S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT COULD STALL OVER OUR AREA ORIENTED WEST
TO EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST. IT IS ALWAYS
UNCERTAIN THE POSITION OF QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...AS THEY
USUALLY OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH. IN THE WORKS CASE
SCENARIO...THIS FRONT COULD INDUCE REPETITIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE SAME AREAS...CAPABLE TO PRODUCE WATER PROBLEMS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
SCENARIO IN CASE FLOOD WATCHES ARE NECESSARY.

THE BEST SFC BASED CAPE OF 1600 J/KG...ON TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE ZONE...PER NAM MODEL...STAYS ACROSS CENTRAL WV
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ON BY 18Z THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH BY
THE SAME TIME...ACROSS KY AND TN. VORTICITY MAXES ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORM ACTIVITY NEARBY THE
STATIONARY FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

WENT WITH THE CONSMOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY...LEAVING THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO WERE USED WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...
EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL SCATTER RAPIDLY SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EFFECTIVE
PERIOD. HIGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BUT AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8KFT.
GENERALLY LIGHT S/SW SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS BY MID-AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TUE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...50