Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150552 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 152 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Irma remnants push east tonight. Weak high pressure builds for the weekend, and even into next week, with warm and slightly more humid air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 130 AM Friday... Added in some low end PoPs through central portions of the CWA in addition to chance PoPs in the mountains for the afternoon on Friday. Hi-res models agree on moisture availability with a timely afternoon mid-level weakness. Dropped afternoon high temperatures by a degree or so to account for greater cloud cover. As of 1000 PM Thursday... No changes this evening. Dense fog is forming where pockets of clearing exist. As of 745 PM Thursday... Diurnally driven showers are waning this evening. This will set the stage for areas of dense fog to develop quickly in pockets of clearing, with dense fog and low stratus becoming more common overnight across the remainder of the area. I will be monitoring how things play out over the next few hours to determine if an SPS for fog is needed. As of 215 PM Thursday... Radar images and sfc obs indicate areas or light rain or drizzle across the area. Opted to code stratiform pcpn instead of showery. Satellite images show a broad cloud shield extending from southern IL and western Ky east and north into our area and the further north and east. Expect these low level clouds to persist tonight as they gradually dissipate or move east aways from the area. A high pressure will build to improve conditions across the region Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Thursday... High pressure, at the surface and aloft, will continue to build into the region during this period. As a result, expect mainly dry conditions with a slow warming trend. However, models suggest there is a possibility of a few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly in the northern mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM Thursday... Upper level ridge is expected to strengthen while surface high pressure remains in place. Tranquil weather should continue with a few more afternoon and evening mountain showers and storms Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures should remain a little above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Friday... With showers tapered down for the night, patiently awaiting the formation of LIFR/VLIFR conditions across the remainder of the area this AM. At this hour, still have lingering low and mid level clouds causing vsby to bounce around with the formation and dissipation of fog. Expecting fog and low stratus to fill in over most TAF sites within the next hour or so. Conditions will gradually improve Friday morning as fog lifts into a period of of MVFR stratocu...which will scatter through the mid-day hours by 19Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High on IFR or worse vsby/cigs developing. Low on timing. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR/IFR stratus may become the dominate player tonight versus dense fog. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 09/15/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H L L M M L L L M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY L H H M M M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M L L M L M M M M L M L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L H M M M M M M M M H L CKB CONSISTENCY H L M L L L L L L L M L AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in morning river valley fog through the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ/30/MC SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...30/MC

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