Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 050550 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 150 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 730 PM UPDATE. NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN... WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN FORECAST. AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MZ

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