Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161640 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1140 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in behind the front through tonight. Next low pressure system late Saturday/Saturday night. High pressure Sunday. Warm front Monday with a cold front midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1100 AM Friday... Adjusted PoPs according to latest radar images and high resolution models guidance. A cold front will cross the area from northwest to southeast spreading numerous rains showers tonight. As of 600 AM Friday... Only some minor adjustments needed this morning with categorical POPs and widespread rain across the bulk of the CWA. As of 235 AM Friday... High pressure influences building in from the upper high plains will assist in pushing the cold front through the region over the next few hours, and finally taking the axis of more persistent rain to the south southeast through the mountains. Bulk of the shower activity will be out by 00Z Saturday, lingering only in the mountains, and completely gone well before the end of the near term. Given the cold air advection, used a non diurnal temperature trend through 00Z Saturday with falling values all day and a Friday morning Max T for most locations. Flow aloft remains progressive with the next cyclogenesis occurring in the southern stream from an ejecting open wave over the southwestern states. Will only see the very front end of this in the near term with some overrunning providing very low chance mixed precipitation while the column moistens from the top down. Temperatures by 12Z Saturday will be below freezing again area wide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday... Precipitation will be on the increase early Saturday as a wave of low pressure passes by late Saturday into Saturday night. Have some wintry mix across very southern WV and southwestern VA to start, although POPs so low as this point not anticipating any impacts. Have changeover to rain here fairly quick, with rain through the day west of the mountains. Have half an inch to an inch of rainfall across far south, with a quarter to half an inch in the Ohio River Valley and Central WV. Will add HWO mention across the south for some flooding potential. Across the northern mountains and eastern slopes things are a bit trickier with cold air stuffed up against the ridges with southeast flow. Have this area staying all wintry mix, with snow, sleet and freezing rain in the forecast. Have 1-3 inches of snow with up to a tenth of an inch of ice forecast for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night across the northern mountains and eastern slopes. Will also mention this potential in the HWO. High pressure moves through Sunday, with any lingering precipitation tapering off early. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday... A warm front will lift through Sunday night, with non-diurnal trend and increasing POPs. Could be some brief snow across the eastern slopes, but otherwise it is all rain Sunday night into Monday. Have some dry time in the POPs Monday night and Tuesday before POPs increase again with cold front passage Wednesday or Thursday. Some timing difference between GFS and ECMWF with this, so stuck fairly close to consensus blend. Ahead of this cold front, temperatures will be unseasonably warm Tuesday. Some guidance... like the MEX... shows highs at or above 80 in some places Tuesday afternoon. Did not go quite that warm, but still have mid to upper 70s across much of the lowlands. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 600 AM Friday... Relied heavily on the LAMP guidance for the evolution of the ceilings and visibilities through the first 9 hours of the forecast. IFR is possible at all sites during the rain portion of the forecast, and will be most persistent at CRW and BKW. Flight categories will improve after 20Z when the rain finally exits the terminals from northwest to southeast. Drying behind the front and shield of rain will be fairly quick and ceilings will scatter out appropriately. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes will likely vary and is dependent on heavy rainfall. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M H M L M M M H H M H L HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L H H H H H L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M M L H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H L H L L M M H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M L L H L H M M H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H L L AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday and Saturday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...ARJ/MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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