Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261037 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 637 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbances aloft in an upper level ridging pattern. Slow moving convection possible Friday/Saturday. Southeast flow may eventually increase shower coverage late Sunday or Monday...especially over mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 AM Update... Shower coverage on the slow increase this morning from low to mid level forcing. All rainfall rates are pretty low with this activity...and not seeing any lightning. Previous Discussion... The center of the upper level ridge off the Atlantic Coast puts us on the periphery of that ridge...and prone to waves within the weak synoptic scale flow aloft. All in all...this is not much of a change from the previous day...as is the fact there is very little in the way of surface forcing mechanisms. Still have very little in the way of flow in the lower levels...as well as surface based instability...although this may be slightly higher across the CWA given the slightly higher dewpoints expected. Dewpoints will push the mid 60s by the afternoon hours...but peak heating will once again be tempered somewhat by variable cloud cover. The end result is slight to low chance POPS with low confidence of thunder...although this was added to the showers for a few hours this afternoon. SPC day one outlook has the CWA well entrenched in the area of general thunder...no change from the previous issuance in terms of our area. No severe weather expected in the near term. Temperatures continue to creep upwards...with only cosmetic changes to these for the most part for max temperatures today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Very weak flow on Friday...tries to increase just slightly on Saturday...with no fronts in sight. As a result...no significant mid level disturbances to latch onto. Will try to have the higher pops Friday over the central mountains counties...and forming first...with the differential heating. As mentioned yesterday... can still picture convection over the southern mountains late afternoon trying to drift north into southern coal fields and toward Hts or Crw. So left chance pops over the southern lowlands well into the warm Friday evening. Localized/isolated downpours can occur under this slow moving convection on Friday afternoon and evening with precipitable water around 1.5 inches. Forecast model soundings showing more instability Saturday afternoon...while drier air aloft tries to move northwest into the mountain counties during Saturday afternoon and evening. So chance pops just as high in the western lowlands Saturday...when compared to mountains. Again...isolated downpours Saturday afternoon and evening...probably western lowlands. On Sunday we are still looking south and southeast. Disturbance along Carolina coast may increase moisture late Sunday into Monday and hold down temperatures...especially along eastern slopes. Temperature wise...forecast a few more 90 degree reading Friday afternoon if convection holds off until evening for the southern river valleys like Logan Louisa...Charleston...and Huntington. At this distance...with weak downslope winds west of the mountains... we did not lower maximum temperature forecast on Sunday in the western lowlands as much as...say the 00z Gfs mex guidance suggests. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Summer like weather will continue during the period as an upper level ridge remains over the area. Warm afternoons and cool nights will be the rule. There could be some convection Saturday night due to afternoon heating and juicy airmass. The upper level ridge hold until Sunday before drifting off the east coast. Continue with low chance for the remainder of the period especially during the afternoons. A developing tropical system approaches South Carolina by Tuesday morning. It is a little early to have high confidence on the track of this system. Will monitor the development and track of this tropical system. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Isolated to scattered showers with thunder possible after 16Z expected today...but the chances do not warrant prevailing conditions of SHRA at this time. Therefore...the forecast is VFR through 03Z Friday under cumulus formation in the 4-5kft range with another mid level deck possible. Chances for late mist...possibly down to IFR at times...returns. Light surface flow less than 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR in a shower is possible...requiring amendments or short duration TEMPOs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... The river gauge...and forecast point...at the South Side Bridge in downtown Charleston has not be reading correctly. The NWS hydrologist is working to correct this problem. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26 HYDROLOGY...

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