Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291033 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 514 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING. WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES READING IN THE MID 20S...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR EVEN IT READINGS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. WILL EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO INCLUDE VINTON AND ATHENS COUNTIES. MES NAM SOUNDING ALSO SHOW SOME CONCERN FOR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY WHEN THIS BAND ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF IN THIS AREA DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED DURATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THE SITUATION. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR. IT APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT WILL BE POST FRONTAL. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE NIGHT AND START A DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BUSY MOPPING UP ONE STORM AND BRINGING IN ANOTHER ON THIS GRAVEYARD SHIFT... ITS ALL DOWNHILL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AS CAA ON GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY. SO...HAVE HIGHS AT 12Z...GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S SE OH/N WV TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. TEMPS WILL FALL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SOME 30 TO 35 KT GUSTS WILL BE REALIZED. AS SUCH...WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO TAKE A HIT BUT NOT EXPECTING CRITERIA TO BE MET OVER THE N MOUNTAINS. AS FOR SNOW...DESPITE A SHRINKING MOISTURE COLUMN...CAA WILL ALLOW FOR A COLDER CLOUD LAYER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT WITH SHRINKING CLOUD LAYER COOLING TO -15 TO -20C IN THE MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY ACROSS S OH AND NE KY. MODELS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL THOUGH...NONETHELESS...FELT PRUDENT IN GOING DETERMINISTICALLY HIGH WITH POPS IN THE MORNING. WITH RATIOS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE...THE FLUFF FACTOR MAY PRODUCE SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 IN THE N MOUNTAINS /DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION/ TO 1 TO 2 FURTHER S DOWN THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO SW VA. IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY 12HR PERIOD MEETS CRITERIA OVER THE N MOUNTAINS. SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW TO COMPOUND THINGS...FELT BEST WAY TO GO WAS WITH AN ADVISORY WHICH MATCHES WILL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE W AND S ZONES. HARD TO SAY IF N MOUNTAINS CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE THERMAL TROF GETTING PINCHED OFF. DO THINK SOME CLEARING WILL WORK ITS WAY THRU REMAINDER OF CWA WITH A COLD NIGHT IN STORE WITH WINDS SLACKENING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE STRATOCU ACROSS SE OH AND N WV...WITH THE MOST SUN NE KY/S WV/SW VA. THERE WILL BE REBOUND IN TEMPS WITH WAA BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE N MOUNTAINS. STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE VOLATILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS WITH N STREAM ENERGY AND ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF SW CONUS. AS HPC NOTED...UNTIL THE N STREAM ENERGY CAN GET INTO W CANADA...SUSPECT WAFFLING TO CONTINUE WITH JUST HOW STRONG OF A WAVE/LOW PRESSURE THERE WILL BE. THE ENSEMBLES DONT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH LARGE SPREADS OVER THE OH VALLEY ON THE GFS ENSEMBLES. ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO A HAIR COOLER ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MAIN FEATURE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY WILL BE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE. DO FEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A BLANKET HWO OUT GIVEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WITH THIS BAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047. OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066- 067-075-084. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...RPY

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