Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 300243 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1043 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HEAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1040 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON NEW NAM COMING IN. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS TRI-STATE AND SOUTHERN OHIO AS ALL MODELS SHOW THIS AS A LULL...WITH DEVELOPMENT HAPPENING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BACKING UP TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE MAINLY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE MORE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FACTORS...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPROACHING 100 DEGREES TO CONTINUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CAUTION. FOR THE FRONT...EXPECT IT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z...CKB-CRW LINE BY 14Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 17Z. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...LOSS OF HEATING...AND WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE VERY JUICY AIRMASS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH 30-40 POPS. MODELS INDICATE MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. THUS...WILL TIME CONVECTION MORE WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. MOST OF THE CONVECTION BY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND EXITING EARLY AFTERNOON...AND DO NOT REALLY EXPECT A WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHIELD BEHIND THIS FRONT. NOTHING REALLY SHOWING UP AT THIS TIME BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL KEEP MINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...QUITE MUGGY. FOR THURSDAY...TOOK A BLEND OF THE MODELS WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL...BUT ALSO DRIER AIR. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SIG WX NIL...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS IN THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEAR TERM MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT ENTERS CWA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. DUE TO THIS...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT INSTEAD KEPT A MORE GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH VCTS. MAY NEED TO UPDATE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON FOG FORMATION. WITH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS AROUND...WENT WITH MVFR VALLEY FOG... HOWEVER SHOULD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PRECIP DENSER FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY VARY. FOG OCCURRENCE DEPENDS ON EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/30/15 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26/DTC AVIATION...MZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.