Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211830 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 230 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain ending. Drier and cooler airmass settles in through the early part of the week. Next cold front approaches by the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Getting some enhancement to the line of showers along the cold front as it accelerates through the eastern portion of the CWA into the mountains. No lightning yet...but received a wind gust in the 25-30kt range as it went through CRW. Expecting this trend to continue eastward. While the convection is forecast to exit by 00Z...this front will not be a clean sweep in terms of the moisture. will likely be dealing with clouds hanging up in the mountains...and in some locations where it does clear out...river valley fog can development...although this will have better chances in the coming mornings. No major changes to the dewpoints and temperatures in the airmass following the cold front. Drier and cooler air will make a relatively short stay through the near term and into the beginning of the short term. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 235 PM Sunday... Guidance show good agreement with high pressure building from the west Monday night. Expect mostly clear skies, plenty of sunshine, dry and cool weather conditions. Despite dry conditions...highs Monday will remain in the upper 70s. The dry and cool air mass does not stay with us. Diurnal heating and a modified air mass will bring temperatures into the lower 80s on Tuesday. The high center will move east of the area, but conditions will remain dry and warm. Used a combination of super blend and persistence from previous forecast for temperatures through the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday... High pressure drift east of the Appalachian continuing with dry conditions at least through Wednesday night. Then, a cold front approaches Friday keeping the area in the warm sector and chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Went closer to the GFS with the onset of PCPN starting Thursday with slight chance for showers and storms, and chance PoPs Friday and Saturday. Followed WPC for temperatures through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 140 PM Sunday... Showers ahead of a cold front advancing through central WV have briefly resulted in IFR conditions Sunday afternoon. Front currently passing CRW and will continue east toward the mountains this evening...exiting the BKW and EKN areas before 00z. VFR conditions after the front passes for all sites early tonight. Development of fog resulting in IFR or worse visibility appears likely in CRW and EKN after 06Z tonight. Low confidence forecast for IFR stratus at BKW after 10z. Low level moisture will slowly be eradicated Monday morning across all sites with VFR conditions area-wide after sunrise. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility may vary Sunday afternoon as front passes. Overnight fog questionable in the lowlands. IFR ceilings at BKW may not materialize. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY M H M M H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Fog possible most mornings early next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26/MAC

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