Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201535 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1135 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level impulse brings some showers, perhaps a thunderstorm, this afternoon. Weak high pressure builds through the weekend. Cold front approaches by mid next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1130 AM Wednesday... Made slight adjustments to PoPs this afternoon, and for temperatures climbing a little fast out of the gate. Otherwise forecast on track. As of 630 AM Wednesday... Tweaked POPs to better reflect the showers which have drifted a bit farther NE than previously forecast. Also made some minor changes to temperatures and sky based on current obs and trends. As of 140 AM Wednesday... An upper level disturbance is driving showers across the Ohio River Valley early this morning. This feature will gradually move east today, with isolated to scattered showers possible across the entire forecast area. Also expecting some rumbles of thunder, but with no surface help convection is fully reliant on upper forcing. So other than brief downpours in a 1.5 inch precipitable water environment, no impactful thunderstorms expected. Any showers and storms should taper off after sunset tonight. Temperatures will continue to run a couple degrees above normal for both highs and lows. Blended in ECMWF MOS with only minor changes to previous forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Diurnal heating and orographic effects could produce isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms over the central and southern mountains Thursday into Thursday evening. Drier conditions expected Friday and Saturday as drier air moves in. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for this time of year, with foggy mornings continuing. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... High pressure with very relaxed pressure gradient will prevail this weekend into the beginning of the new week. A cold front will approach the area from the west by mid week to bring isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms. With very light sfc winds, mostly clear skies and available low level moisture will continue to produce foggy conditions in river valleys. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 630 AM Wednesday... Any fog will dissipate 12Z-14Z with generally VFR expected today. Will have some isolated to scattered showers around, so could get brief restrictions if these pass over a TAF site. Valley fog expected again tonight, however just where and how dense will depend on how the cloud deck evolves late today and tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need amendments to add MVFR to IFR in showers or storms this afternoon. Fog forecast for tonight may need adjustments on timing and density. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning through the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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