Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 010754 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD REMAINS IN CONTROL PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. ANY SHOWER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR DEVELOPING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PLACES REACHING 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND TO THE MID 80S TO UPPER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IS RELUCTANT TO CHANGE. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOWING SIGNALS ON THE SREF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUPPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MOST SITES DURING PREDAWN HOURS. HTS SEEMS THE FIRST ONE TO FOG ALREADY IN MVFR VISIBILITIES UNDER FOG. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DECK ACROSS CKB SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. THESE CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER EKN PREVENTING OR DELAYING FOG FORMATION THERE. FOR TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DIURNAL CU AND ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE EXACTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP...MORE LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/01/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...FB AVIATION...ARJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.