Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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171 FXUS61 KRLX 201816 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 216 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... more widespread storms late tonight as a cold front crosses the region. Front lifts back north late Friday night/Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday... Surface boundary with associated surface trough acting as a trigger for some convective development this afternoon with a thin line of thunderstorms extending from just south of KPKB to KBLF. Also still seeing some isold redevelopment in eastern KY. Will keep at least isold POPs through this evening with higher values to the east. Front approaches from the west tracking through from the 06Z-12Z timeframe. Have not strayed far from inherited forecast in terms of timing the line that will be associated with front as it moves through. For temps...went with model blend with generous nod toward inherited forecast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday... The cold front will moves south southeast taking all pcpn to the eastern mountains and extreme southern coalfields of WV by Friday 12Z. Kept likely PoPs over the northwest slopes and eastern mountain per slower ECMWF model Friday morning. The front stalls south of the area and then returns north as a warm front to bring unstable conditions and showers or storms through the weekend. A sfc low pressure system then moves from west to east along KY and VA to enhance lifting over southern WV Sunday. With available low level moisture, pwats around 1.4 inches showers and storms will be possible mainly across extreme southern WV and extreme southwest VA into early Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM Thursday... Drier and cool air filters from the north northeast to bring pleasant conditions by the end of the weekend. Shortwave trough aloft lifts northeastward into the Great Lakes Tuesday night, so the rain from that system should stay north. Broad upper level trough sets up over the intermountain west, with a new baroclinic zone developing northwest of our CWA. Should stay dry until a surface low departs from the southern plains, while we get back into a warming trend. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday... Tracking fairly solid line of convection through central WV which should clear forecast area by around 22Z. Seeing up to 30KT gusts, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with brief IFR with this feature. In wake of line expect isold pop-up convection to continue for the remainder of the afternoon. Front and another round of associated convection will make its way through aft 06z. Will see return MVFR and brief IFR conditions arriving into the Ohio Valley aft 04Z. The storms will weaken as they head east early Friday morning. In wake of the feature broadbrushed IFR stratus for the early morning hours. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR and maybe IFR could occur with rain showers or possibly thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR possible Saturday into Sunday with another wave of low pressure. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...KMC/MPK

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