Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 120540 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 128 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH SATURDAY WITH NO RAIN. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. NEXT FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... WILL LOWER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DUE TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H850 AROUND 35 KNOTS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE FOR WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO WAA ALOFT...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING WARMING. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H850 INCREASES TO 40-50 KNOTS ENHANCING THE WAA ALOFT BRINGING SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS UNTIL MONDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ARE DUE TO A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE H850 TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO 14C BY 00Z MONDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHEAST OHIO BY 00 TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING ON ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED NAM AND SREF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE SE STATES AND THEN MOVING UP THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCT THUNDER WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME INSTABILITY...BUT NOT GREAT. LOW QUICKLY MOVES UP FRONT AND CONTINUES HIGH POPS OVER THE AREA. THEN MOVES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS UNDER THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST EPISODE OF TYPICAL WARM SEASON EARLY MORNING RIVER AND VALLEY FOG. SCT-BKN 4000-8000 FEET AGL MAINLY SOUTH...WITH MVFR TO IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z AFFECTING MAJOR TAF SITES. AFTER 12Z...WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. GENERALLY SCT CLOUDS 6000-8000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY BKN NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG. HIGH OTHERWISE. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/DENSITY OF RIVER AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 04/12/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M H H M L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...21/ARJ/JR NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...JMV

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