Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160540 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings comfortable, dry weather the balance of the weekend. Cool front Monday. Dry high pressure mid week, then warmer and more humid with more storms by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1028 PM Saturday... Delayed the fog an hour or two given the lingering clouds. As of 230 PM Saturday... High pressure rules the roost this period, with near normal temperatures. Dense valley fog will form overnight tonight, and then quickly dissipate first thing Sunday morning. A mixed layer persists above the surface based radiation inversion tonight, so neither stratus nor morning cu is expected. Fair weather cu will reform atop the mixing layer on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 PM Saturday... Upper trough swings southward over the region on Monday. Surface moisture will be lacking out ahead of the trough, but with the cool air aloft we should be able to still kick off at least some diurnal showers Monday afternoon and evening, but QPF will be light. High pressure starts to push in on Tuesday, but some showers may linger over the mountains. Temperatures should be seasonable through the period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 PM Saturday... Ridging build in for the remainder of the work week, but so will the heat and humidity again. Heat index values will climb into the upper 90s to near 100F on Thursday. On Friday, we will be on the periphery of upper high over the Central Plains. As mentioned in previous forecast, we should be in the area of NW flow aloft. Any short waves moving through the flow will kick off showers and storms Friday and Saturday with abundant moisture from the surface through 700mb. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 135 AM Sunday... Timing of the fog in the river valleys and their associated terminals remains tricky given the patchy stratus deck at around 5kft. Observations are giving hints that fog development is ongoing since visibilities are now coming down below 10SM as the temperatures drop towards the dewpoints. Have all terminals except BKW in LIFR fog at some point in the next 6 hours. VFR expected in scattered cumulus field beyond 14Z as winds increase to 5kts at the surface. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing tonight could vary by an hour or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 07/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L M H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...TRM/30 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...26

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