Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191600 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1200 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds today giving a brief dry period. A deep low pressure system arrives Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry high pressure moves east resulting in clear skies and mild temperatures. There will be fog development during the predawn hours. Models suggest that a warm front, evident in theta-e patterns, lifts north Friday morning keeping a chance for showers or storms. Additional showers and storm activity will come with a cold front with limited moisture, precipitable water around 1 inch. The nature of the convection associated with upper lows usually move slow or have rain over and over the same area. Therefore, expect periods of heavy rain and minor water problems. Used the bias corrected SREF and the superblend numbers for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure drifts away from the forecast area Friday, with moisture on the increase ahead of a surface low lifting out of the lower Mississippi Valley. Overall not any significant changes made to timing of pops, although did increase to 100% across the eastern slopes. NAM and ECMWF try to show initial surface low moving into the Ohio River Valley, whereas the GFS has it farther south and east. Overall track may have some impact on potential for downslope effect across central WV, but enough moisture should still be in place to maintain higher POPs. Precipitable water should be in the 1-1.5 inch range Friday night into Saturday...with areas of heavy rain possible. Best location for heavy rain will depend some on the track of the surface low, so will continue mention of potential for flash flooding across entire CWA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models show wrap-around moisture with the potential for some showers Monday and Tuesday. SFC high pressure will try to take control starting the new week. Have some chance to chance pops across the east Monday, but went dry on Tuesday. Went with WPC for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dense fog under light flow and wet ground. Conditions improve to VFR by mid morning. With some heating...expect some bkn MVFR stratocu over the mountains with just a sct VFR cu field elsewhere. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing the fog breakout will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... The next system could bring IFR conditions Friday night and Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...ARJ

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