Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201251 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 851 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front today followed by a cold front tonight. Upper disturbance passes Tuesday night. High pressure Wednesday night and Thursday. Warm front Friday. Cold front over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 850 AM Monday... Quick update for convection to our west. Regional radar mosaic showing a slowly weakening convective complex moving through western OH and northern KY this morning. Hi-res guidance is struggling to resolve this, but the HRRR is more in line with observed trends. Expecting showers and isolated thunder to move into KY and OH counties by 15-16Z with a continued weakening trend anticipated as convection eventually enters WV. Low freezing levels and decent deep layer shear aoa 40 kts will favor hail production in stronger convective elements, both this morning and again this evening as a second round of showers and storms develop and move through after 22-00Z. Forecast on track otherwise. As of 540 AM Monday... Elected to increase cloud cover a little quicker than previously forecast, as satellite imagery indicating increasing clouds across our west from convection across the Great Lakes Region/Midwest. As of 310 AM Monday... The active weather pattern continues across the region. Still have an area of stubborn low clouds across northeastern parts of the CWA, but these should gradually continue to erode this morning, as high pressure and drier air continues to take hold. However, mid and high clouds will gradually take its place as the day progresses today. Warm frontal boundary, associated with low pressure across the central U.S. will gradually nudge its way east and north into the region later today, possibly kicking off isold showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. In addition, some of the near term models such as the HRRR seem to indicate the possibility of convection, which will develop across the midwest today, moving southeast into our region this afternoon. With weak instability, not expecting anything severe, although small hail is a possibility due to freezing levels below 10k feet. Showers, along with isold thunderstorms will increase in coverage later tonight, as a cold front, and upper level disturbance move into the region. Made no significant changes to previous temperatures in the forecast period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 420 AM Monday... Tuesday morning finds a cold front at least half the way through the forecast area, and an upper level wave moving off to the east. The cold front slips southward, through the remainder of the area, by Tuesday afternoon, taking any showers with it. Left a small chance for thunder in the extreme south midday Tuesday, just before the front moves through there. Models show a flat wave moving across the area Tuesday Night, bringing about a renewed chance for precipitation. Given the sloping baroclinic zone on the north side of the front south of the area, we are looking at mainly mid and upper level moisture and hence light precipitation. The colder air moving in behind the front may allow a transition from rain to snow from north to south overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with very light accumulations possible in the mountains. Cloud temperatures favoring crystal growth and dry air below the cloud base favor a transition of any precipitation to snow during this time. Strong high pressure featuring cold and very dry air dominates Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, as it passes north of the area. Temperatures close to central guidance including a very cold Thursday morning, about ten degrees below normal, for a hard freeze for any agricultural interests. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 420 AM Monday... Warm advection precipitation may scoot across northern portions of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The retreating cold air may hang on long enough for snow furthest east, across northeastern WV. The area breaks out into a warm sector Friday afternoon into Saturday. A cold front approaches later Saturday and is likely to cross later Saturday night or Sunday, ahead of which thunder is possible. Low pressure approaching from the west on Monday may lead to a continued or renewed chance for precipitation. Have lows occurring early Thursday night as warm advection develops overnight. Otherwise temperatures close to central guidance, which is a little below the MEX over the weekend. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 850 AM Monday... Convective complex to our west continues this morning. Hi-res guidance and observed trends suggest gradual weakening, but terminals near the OH River, particularly KHTS and KPKB, could see MVFR in SHRA or brief TSRA. Low freezing levels will promote small hail growth up to 0.5 inches in stronger showers/storms. As of 635 AM Monday... Still an area of MVFR cigs across parts of northern WV mountains. This will gradually continue to lift out of the area, with all TAF sites predicted to be VFR by 14Z. In addition, patchy mvfr fog has developed at sites adjacent to area waterways, such as KPKB and KCRW. This also should gradually dissipate by 14Z. Mainly VFR conditions for the remainder of today, with light southerly surface winds, however, an area of showers and thunderstorms across the midwest is sagging south into the region, and if it survives, will affect southeast Ohio and WV counties adjacent to the Ohio river around 14Z, creating brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, there is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 18-21Z, and mainly across southeast Ohio and central WV, although a shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out anywhere. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in vicinity of storms, along with small hail. Showers, and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage after 00Z, with widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions developing. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection in Ohio and Indiana this morning may survive into the Ohio Valley this morning. Timing of any showers or isolated thunderstorms, and resultant MVFR or worse conditions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in low cigs and -shra Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL/DTC SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL/DTC

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