Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 020944 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 544 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TODAY. UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT. ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40 KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY. USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. A LINE OF SH0WERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG. NOT SURE IF ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS BEING MOST LIKELY TO SEE A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/02/16 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOMORROW IN FOG ONCE AGAIN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047. OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MPK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.