Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200650 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 141 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK DISTURBANCE CLIPS THE AREA TODAY. DRY SUNDAY. SYSTEM MAY CLIP MOUNTAINS MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW STAYS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS LOTS OF RETURNS TO THE WEST...BUT MOST OF THIS IS STRUGGLING TO GET THROUGH A LOWER LEVEL DRY LAYER. SOME PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN KY IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHERE THE MESO NAM SHOWS THAT THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE MOSTLY SATURATED. BASED ON THIS...THINK SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION...AS THE MESO NAM SHOWS THAT MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER LEVELS HERE. THEREFORE WILL ADD SOME SMALL POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT MESO NAM SHOWS THE STRATUS DECK THAT RETREATS NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...PUSHING BACK SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO DUE TO THIS DECK PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A WAVE LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES. THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SKIRTS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AROUND THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIMES. WITH FAIRLY WARM GROUND AND A QUICK WARM UP AS THE SUN RISES...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING INTO THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT/ TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THERE -SN OR A -RASN WILL BE OBSERVED. AT THIS POINT...IMPACTS FOR THIS EVENT LOOK MINIMAL. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE OVER AN INCH...AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. THIS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY CHANGING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW CWA WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG AND POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REMAINS A TRICKY SYSTEM TO FORECAST IN TERMS OF OVERALL IMPACTS...AS GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY AT LEAST INITIALLY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOWLANDS...TO LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE HOWEVER DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THE STORM IN THE HWO...SINCE IT WILL AFFECT THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS. SPEAKING OF CHRISTMAS DAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...WITH PERIODS OF -SHSN. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRATUS DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY REMAIN IN OHIO TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS TODAY AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VA AND SOUTHEASTERN WV. SOME MVFR CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN VA AND SOUTHEASTERN WV. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...THE STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRATUS DECK...MEDIUM OTHERWISE. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK MOVING NORTHWESTWARD COULD CHANGE CONSIDERABLY. TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 12/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX. IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/LS NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...RPY

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