Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180520 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure through most of this week, providing warm afternoons and cool nights. Weak upper level impulse mid week with some showers possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 120 AM Monday... Mainly quiet weather is expected today and tonight with weak high pressure remaining in the region. Highs this afternoon should be a degree or two warmer than Sunday. Have isolated to scattered showers across the mountainous counties of WV this afternoon and evening. Moisture is on the thin side, but we had some showers POP up Sunday afternoon/evening so do not see a reason why today will be much different. Fairly strong cap in place just above the layer of best moisture, so did not include any thunder mention. For tonight, expect similar conditions to the past few nights with cool temperatures and dense valley fog. As an upper level ripple approaches from the west, do have a bit more cloud cover across the Tri-state area, so fog may not be quite as widespread of dense there. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday... Weak surface reflection of a front across central Ohio finishes its dying process this period with little to account for in the sensible weather by Tuesday. Meanwhile, Irma should remain well to our east, brushing the eastern seaboard per the latest NHC guidance. We remain under 5h ridge with weak gradient flow and some trapped boundary layer moisture. Thus, a continuation of fair forecast with unseasonably warm temperatures and a few diurnal showers still in the offing through mid week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday... Large scale anticyclonic circulation at the mid and upper levels becomes entrenched over the northeastern United States. Kept current long term trends in place. It is a weak easterly flow pattern with some low level moisture in place. Just enough there to kick off a few mountains showers each day. Also relied on blend for temperature forecast. Temperatures will run unseasonably warm for this time of year. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 AM Monday... Persistence forecast looks like a good bet tonight, with dense valley fog forming over the next couple hours. Have IFR at typical valley sites, improving 13Z-14Z. Isolated showers possible across the mountainous counties this afternoon and evening with another dose of dense river valley fog expected tonight. Winds will be light and generally out of the north today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog formation tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/18/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L L M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...MZ

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