Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210610 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 210 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead. Dry cold front late Saturday. Another cold front late Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 210 AM Wednesday... Forecast remains largely on track. Did tweak min temps a touch lower through tonight based on current observations and trends. As of 100 PM Tuesday... High pressure in control tonight and Wednesday. Fog is much trickier tonight, as drier air is mixing down and there is a bit of a pressure gradient that could keep a bit of stirring over the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 PM Tuesday... Upper level ridge will keep the remnants of Julia at bay along the Outer Banks...with a largely dry column over the CWA. Mainly clear conditions with above normal afternoon temperatures prevail in the dry September mode. No major changes to the temperature fields for this issuance. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 210 PM Tuesday... A dry cold front pushes through late Saturday into Saturday night...bringing another reprieve to the above normal temperatures across the area. In the progressive synoptic scale pattern aloft...brief ridging will follow...with another trough/cold front in the late Tuesday night time frame. This will be the next chance for significant rain in this overall dry pattern for the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 210 AM Wednesday... Still a tricky fog forecast for the overnight/early morning. Surface flow is virtually nonexistent and H925 flow remains right on the cusp between too strong for fog development versus weak enough for deep valley radiation fog. There is high confidence fog will not be as widespread and dense as last night. Fairly confident KBKW/KHTS should stay VFR through the morning with no significant fog development. Less confident in keeping KPKB/KCKB completely in the clear, so compromised with a few hours of MVFR mist during the early morning hours. Highest confidence in IFR conditions remain at KEKN/KCRW. Did slightly tweak timing to delay downward trend in visibility and ceiling. By around 13-14Z, should see all terminals return to VFR conditions that will prevail through the day and evening Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except low in fog overnight into Wednesday morning. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming overnight could vary. MVFR mist was added to KPKB and KCKB. KPKB may quickly hit IFR near dawn. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/21/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Dense valley fog is possible most mornings this week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/DTC SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...DTC/MPK

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