Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 262338 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 738 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THURSDAY. AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES ON ALL HOLLOWS EVE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS AGREE ON A VERY TRANQUIL FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. QUITE DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL DROP OFF...AND WITH THE DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MINS HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES. HAVE JUST A BIT OF FOG IN THE TYGART VALLEY LATE TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR MONDAY JUST SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA...AS A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT AND BELOW 6000 FEET IN THE RH FIELDS...BUT MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT TRANSLATE THIS INTO MUCH CLOUD AT ALL. THIS LACK OF CLOUD TREND IS ALREADY SHOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR RIGHT DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THUS WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS MONDAY AND SHOOT FOR MOSTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S...AND TO AROUND 80 IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THERE REMAINS GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES THERE. DID SPEED THE FRONT UP AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CWA...AND HAVE IT IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO GET HUNG UP THERE WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS KEEPS SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE NEW SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS...THE OVERNIGHT DAY 3 PUTS THE CONVECTION HERE WITH THE FRONT IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY. DO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS...BUT WILL BE DOWNPLAYING THIS THREAT FOR NOW. WILL BE LOSING ANY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE SHORT DAYS AND EARLY SETTING SUN...SO SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION GETS TO THE OHIO RIVER. MAY NEED TO TRIM THUNDER CHANCES ON THE BACK END...AS THUNDER THROUGH 05Z MAY END UP NOT BEING VERY REALISTIC IN THIS SET UP. HAVE SOME LOWLAND 80S TUESDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEST COOLING EXPECTED THE FIRST DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TO START THE PERIOD...PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME TIMING/ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO...SO STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC...ALTHOUGH DID GO WITH A BIT HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE CONTROL. DO HAVE SOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 12Z...EXCEPT MVFR FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYGART VALLEY BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z INCLUDING EKN. AFTER 12Z...SCATTERED CLDS AOA 5000 FEET GENERALLY NORTHWEST HALF OF AREA AS A DRY WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER 12Z AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORMATION MVFR VSBY IN THE TYGART VALLEY...OR THE LACK OF IT IN OTHER VALLEYS...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 10/27/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JSH/JMV

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