Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 250912 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 412 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SCREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE ABOVE 12000 FEET. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS OH...SOME TRYING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OH AND WV OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THESE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...UNDER LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 11/25/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.