Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191911 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper ridge over the Ohio Valley weakens today, with increasing heat and humidity, and mainly scattered afternoon mountain storms. Convective activity on the increase into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... Isolated showers have developed across the forecast area this afternoon in the moist unstable atmosphere. But overall, threat for showers remains quite low, and any should dissipate by sunset with the loss of heating. Tonight will be similar to previous nights, with a mostly clear sky, and patchy river valley fog developing towards morning. Thursday, strengthening upper ridge and warmer low level temperatures should result in temperatures a few degrees warmer. A shortwave will move east across the Great Lakes late in the day on Thursday/Thursday night, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across southeast Ohio towards the end of the period. Some of the storms could be on the stronger side, with increasing shear 30-40kts, but overall, better dynamics lie to the north, and timing of storms is late, which should help to mitigate the threat in the near term somewhat. SPC has the area in a marginal risk for storms. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM Wednesday... Weak High pressure will gradually shift southward but continuing to pump warm air and moisture up over the region. A frontal boundary across the Great Lakes will start to sag southward through Friday. This boundary will trigger showers and thunderstorms across the northern portion of the CWA late Thursday night into Friday Morning. As the boundary stalls over the area Friday night, the showers and thunderstorms shifts southward with it.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 235 AM Wednesday... Plenty of moisture will be in place as weak frontal boundary stalls and becomes non-existent as ridging starts to build again over the region. However, with any left over boundary, showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend, especially during peak heating. A cold front is expected to move through on Monday with greater chances for thunderstorms with the front. Warm airmass generally stays in place until the cold front pushes through on Monday. Drier and a tad cooler temperatures on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 18Z Wednesday thru 18Z Thursday... As of 130 PM Wednesday... Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds through 05Z. Isold showers and thunderstorms possible 18Z through 23Z, with brief MVFR conditions possible. Any convection will dissipate after sunset. Patchy IFR and LIFR valley fog possible after 05Z, particularly in favored river valleys. Any fog will dissipate by 13Z with a return to VFR conditions with light surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog development and severity tonight may be different than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible Friday morning, and Friday and Saturday in showers and thunderstorms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...SL

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