Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251128 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 627 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. ARCTIC FRONT AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...BASED ON NEW MODEL QPF ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP IN SW VA AND ISSUED SNOW ADVISORY FOR THEM. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EXIT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND ONLY EXPECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT TODAY AND WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOW FAR NORTH WILL IT GO IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ATTM SNOW AMOUNTS THIS GO AROUND ARE STAYING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IF STORM TRACK DIFFERS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS SOUTHERN SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM US. GRADUALLY INCREASED CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF CWA TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY WENT WITH CONCENUS GUID TEMPS THROUGHOUT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE MODELS CONCERNING THE WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS PERIOD. WE STILL HAVE THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTING JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM ENDING BY THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COMES A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TAKES SOME OF THE STARCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT ADDED...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS OUT...BUT THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF A BIT DIFFERENT ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER BRINGING THE HIGH IN THUS TRYING TO LINGER PRECIP A LITTLE LONGER. WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LINGERING THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SPEED DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ALSO CARRIES OVER INTO THE NEXT SYSTEM...A LOW RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS A GOOD 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z GFS BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA...HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED THINGS DOWN. WITH SUCH LARGE DISCREPANCY WILL STICK CLOSE TO WPC ON...ALTHOUGH WENT A BIT SLOWER BRINGING INITIAL PRECIPITATION IN BASED ON 12Z GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS MEASURABLE PRECIP IN SUNDAY...WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND EXIT THIS MORNING. MAINLY VFR CLOUDS BETWEEN 35 TO 50 THSD FT BKN TO OVC. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH REST OF FCST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BKW AND POINTS SOUTH AS A SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW AFTER 05Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JS

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