Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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083 FXUS61 KRLX 181119 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 619 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak system late today into Sunday with scattered showers. Unseasonably warm through the work week with another weak system Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 615 AM Saturday... Quite the spread between ridges and hollows right now, as some lower areas have decoupled and dropped into the 30s, while ridges remain mixed and in the upper 40s and 50s. Should see pretty quick warming as everyone gets in on the mixing after the sun rises this morning. Clouds will be on the increase into this afternoon as a weak system approaches from the SW. Models differ some on just how robust the moisture will be with this system. Will have pretty dry air to overcome initially, so held back on the POPs through early afternoon. Then have isolated to scattered showers drifting north late afternoon into tonight. With southwesterly wind through the period, temperatures will be unseasonably warm. Mid 60s will be common across the lowland today, with 50s in the mountains. Overnight lows will be in the 40s across most of the CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM Saturday... A weak system brushes the CWA Sunday morning with scattered showers. Anomalously warm pattern continues with temperatures reaching 70 degrees many times this week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM Saturday... The very warm pattern continues through the week. A weak system passes Wednesday. This prolonged stretch of warmth will allow for an early start to budding and blooming of some varieties trees/vegetation. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 615 AM Saturday... Clouds will gradually be on the increase while lowering through the day as a weak system approaches from the SW. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to develop by late afternoon. Hard to time this at this point, so went with mainly VCSH. Could be brief drops in visibility. Ceilings will eventually drop into MVFR late afternoon into evening, with some guidance hinting at potential for IFR ceilings after midnight. Winds will be fairly consistent out of the SW through the TAF period, with some ridge line gusts of 15-20kts this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers may vary. Could have brief visibility restrictions in showers. May need more widespread IFR ceilings early Sunday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 02/18/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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