Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200604 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 203 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING WARMER BUT STILL DRY WEATHER SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY. FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 200 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z. WINDS SHIFT TO SE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW. INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP. WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER RESOLUTION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS. MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER SIDE. THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN WV COAL FIELDS. EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET. SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI. THE WIND WILL TEND TO VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN. LLWS CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET. ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L M M L L L L M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/TRM NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...TRM

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