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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 141814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND STALLS OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH THE YES/NO FACTOR OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING THROUGH DAWN WEDNESDAY.

WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ALOFT...AND WILL FIND THE CWA IN VERY
DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE COME THIS TIME WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...WARM FRONT IS LIKELY BACK IN INDIANA/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS
EVIDENCED BY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL DECK FROM WARM
FRONT/VORT MAX NOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT COULD LINGER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...WITH MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP HINTS OF PVA RUNNING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME HINTS OF PATCHY DEFORMATION OVER
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...BUT TWO INHIBITING PROBLEMS. FIRST IS THE
LACK OF MOISTURE. TONIGHT...WITH SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION
OCCURRING NEAR THE INVERSION AND ANOTHER UP AROUND THE 600MB LEVEL
MAY NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN WEAK ELEVATED ASCENT. SECOND IS
A SECOND INVERSION ALOFT IN THE 750-700MB LAYER. CANNOT DECISIVELY
SAY THAT NO PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND...BUT THE BET ON
THIS FORECAST IS NOTHING MEASURABLE WILL FALL. CAPPED THE POPS AT
14 PERCENT AND ADDED SPRINKLES TO THE 14 VALUE. SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY WET SURFACES FROM PERRY TO POCAHONTAS.

COLUMN RETURNS TO A PRIMARILY DRY STATE WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
RELATIVELY HIGH BASED CUMULUS IN PLACE FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
850MB TEMPERATURES HIT THE UPPER TEENS...TRANSLATING TO A JOLT IN
THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WARM FRONT LIFTING TO OUR NORTH BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE ONCE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO
FAR...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS...INTO THE LOWER
80S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT COULD STALL OVER OUR AREA ORIENTED WEST
TO EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST. IT IS ALWAYS
UNCERTAIN THE POSITION OF QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...AS THEY
USUALLY OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH. IN THE WORKS CASE
SCENARIO...THIS FRONT COULD INDUCE REPETITIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE SAME AREAS...CAPABLE TO PRODUCE WATER PROBLEMS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
SCENARIO IN CASE FLOOD WATCHES ARE NECESSARY.

THE BEST SFC BASED CAPE OF 1600 J/KG...ON TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE ZONE...PER NAM MODEL...STAYS ACROSS CENTRAL WV
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ON BY 18Z THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH BY
THE SAME TIME...ACROSS KY AND TN. VORTICITY MAXES ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORM ACTIVITY NEARBY THE
STATIONARY FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

WENT WITH THE CONSMOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY...LEAVING THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO WERE USED WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID LEVEL DECK THAT NOW IS ERODING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS MINOR DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AFFECTING PKB/CKB/EKN
PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES IN ANYTIME TONIGHT...TO EVEN AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY. COLD
FRONT TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20KTS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF/INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LONGER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26