Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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753 FXUS61 KRLX 201914 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 214 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather continues later this weekend as strong closed low passes just to the southwest. Brief high pressure builds in behind it midweek before another colder system passes towards the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 21 PM Friday... Warm air has surged into the region behind a warm front that passed earlier today. Temperatures have already reached the low 60s across the Southern half of the forecast area. Although it remains mostly cloudy this afternoon, there are some breaks in the clouds and areas that see any persistent sunshine could climb into the upper 60s. Forecast soundings indicate enough low level moisture lingers tonight for mostly cloudy skies to persist. This will also keep us quite mild overnight with lows generally in the low 50s to upper 40s. With the saturated ground, it is possible that we see some fog develop by early Saturday morning, but this will depend on cloud cover. Tomorrow will be another very warm January day as warm air advection continues. Weak overrunning starts again in the afternoon. Right now the current thinking is that precipitation will likely hold off until after 00Z, but have added some slight chance to low chance PoP across the Southern forecast area tomorrow evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday... 5h ridge axis shifts east of the forecast area on Saturday with slight drying trend to start the period. Then flow trajectories shift more toward the southwest as another warm front surges north with over running precipitation. Atmospheric dynamics weak, and will carry general chance pops and lighter qpf amounts into saturday night. Longwave trough axis then starts a trend to shift eastward late in the period, perpetuated by a decent piece of energy working along the southern periphery across the Tennessee Valley. Models tend to keep best dynamics and moisture across southern half of our forecast area with sfc low passing across NC. Temps will remain well above normal through the period, with all precipitation falling as rain through Sunday night. There even be a few lighting strokes Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM Friday... Surface low tracks across to our south and then rides northward up the East Coast with Mid Atlantic region remaining in a warm airmass. Late in the period we see further indication that a change in the longwave pattern is afoot, with cooler airmass working its way into the upper midwest. By Thursday, we should see temperatures return to more seasonal values. Noted some variation with model solutions regarding the extended period. Thus, used a general model blend throughout the period with a few minor tweaks to pop and temperature values. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1250 PM Friday... A warm front has pushed through the region. Behind the front there is generally broken clouds as ceilings range from VFR to MVFR. Ceilings should continue to increase through the afternoon as we become firmly entrenched in the warm sector. Isolated showers will be possibly this afternoon across Northeast West Virginia, but for the most part we will continue to dry out. Confidence in the forecast starts to drop later tonight. There will remain breaks in the clouds and with low level moisture in place there is a chance that we could see some fog develop. Some sites could possibly drop to IFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: With broken clouds ceilings will likely drop to MVFR at times. Fog development tonight may be more widespread than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M L H H H M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M H L M L L L L L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H L H H H H M L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday with another system. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MPK

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