Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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879 FXUS61 KRLX 210531 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1231 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through the work week. Weak system late Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong cold front Friday night brings cooler weather for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 9 PM Monday... Basically took most of the fog out of the forecast tonight. Despite valley winds decoupling for at least much of the night before increasing late, air is just too dry. As of 130 PM Today... High pressure north of the area today slides off to the northeast, and off the northeast U. S. coast, on Tuesday. That high will keep dry weather in place most of the period. There is a chance for showers getting into the middle Ohio Valley late in the day on Tuesday, as an upper level short wave trough approaches, but deep layer moisture and instability remain absent. Lowered lows a bit tonight but still closer to the higher MET versus the lower MAV. Highs Tuesday were close to a blend of the guidance and accepted. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Monday... Light shower activity will return to the region by Tuesday evening/night, as a weak frontal boundary, and moisture from a low in the Gulf of Mexico, interact. Overall, amounts look to be light, with greatest activity expected across the southern zones, where more moisture will be present from aforementioned low. Mostly dry by mid week, but a warm frontal boundary will lift north across the area on Thursday, with isold-sct showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north, as it does so. Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal, particularly Thursday into Friday, as southerly flow increases out ahead of approaching cold front. In addition to the warmth, winds will pick up as we approach the end of the work week, with gusty conditions developing due to enhanced pressure gradient and increasing winds aloft. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... Strong cold front will move through the area Friday night and Saturday. Still some uncertainty in this time period, but possible we could be looking at strong thunderstorms during this time period. However at this point, greater chance of severe lies just to the west of the CWA, where better instability and shear will exist. Behind the cold front, Saturday will become much cooler, and windy due to strong CAA, with the possibility of light rain and snow showers developing later on into Sunday, particularly across the higher terrain. Linger some low end POPs Friday as well in the warm sector, and then have POPs increasing pretty quickly Friday night as a cold front moves through. ECMWF pretty quick on moving the moisture out by Saturday afternoon, while the GFS has wrap-around moisture lingering. For now stuck closer to the ECMWF and have POPs ending by Saturday night, with a dry forecast on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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00Z Tuesday thru 00Z Wednesday... As of 1230 AM Tuesday... VFR expected for most of the period. Fog should not be an issue given dew point depressions. LLWS is possible as southerly flow at 925 mb increases, but not confident to put in TAFs. A weak system begins to make its way into the area towards the end of this TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High becoming medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS may be an issue. MVFR possible at end of TAF period. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 02/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/JW NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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