Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271904 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 304 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Active, mild pattern continues in a parade of southern stream systems. The current system crosses tonight into Tuesday, and then another crosses late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday... A weak front remains stalled from west to east, along the Ohio River between Ohio and Kentucky, eastward through central WV, this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms were firing up south of the front, especially over eastern Kentucky, aided by a weak upper level disturbance, a moisture feed from the southwest impinging upon the front, and surface heating. All of this was leading to an effective bulk shear axis of 40-45 kts extending up through eastern Kentucky, along with 1000-1500 J/KG of CAPE. This has resulted in an earlier / faster severe weather threat, in concert with the eastward forecast trends from SPC. North of the front, low level moisture has kept heating to a minimum, helping to maintain a stout stable layer there until the front moves north in increasing low level south to southwest flow ahead of the main system approaching from the west this evening. The main system arrives tonight, after the loss of daytime heating. While this may temper the severe threat somewhat, associated organized convection associated with the main upper level short wave trough, over the middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon, may still pose a wind and excessive water threat, to the degree it is able to hold together. The system pulls off to the east Tuesday afternoon, leaving low level moisture in the form of low clouds in its wake. Near term temperature guidance resulted in slightly higher values in the warm sector tonight, wet-bulbing into the mid and upper 50s in the lowlands again, and slightly lower highs Tuesday versus the previous forecast and the latest MET/MAV. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Monday... Cold front moves away from the region with high pressure building in from the north. In response...precipitation chances should come to an end by late Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 305 PM Monday... Another system approaches the area for Friday bringing precipitation chances back into the region. This system should then push east Friday night with high pressure building in again Saturday Night and Sunday. Expect chances for showers and storms will decrease from the west on Saturday with the region expected to be dry Saturday night. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday... A weak front remains stalled from west to east, along the Ohio River between Ohio and Kentucky, eastward through central WV, this afternoon. North of the front, low level moisture will continue to bring MVFR ceilings at times across the middle Ohio Valley into this evening, as spotty light rain moves across. South of the front, heating beneath an upper level wave has prompted scattered showers and thunderstorms to pop up. Any heavier / stronger thunderstorm this afternoon into this evening can bring brief IFR conditions. The upper level wave was one of two disturbances ahead of the main upper level trough crossing the lower Ohio and TN Valleys this afternoon. That trough, and its associated surface low pressure system and cold front, will bring more numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area tonight into Tuesday. MVFR conditions will become much more common overnight tonight as a result. Low level moisture will result in widespread MVFR stratocu Tuesday once the cold front crosses, which will be Tuesday afternoon including beyond the TAF period. Gusty west winds in the mountains will diminish later this afternoon. Otherwise, surface flow will be light and variable. Light southwest flow aloft may strengthen a bit for a time overnight tonight, and then become light west for Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and category of showers and storms later this afternoon into Tuesday will be variable. There may be post-rain IFR fog and stratus overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.