Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 112003 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 303 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WENT ON LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ...BUT DID NOT HIT THAT TOO HARD DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY LATER ON TONIGHT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST BY FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE HERALDING AN ARCTIC FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND BEST FORCING LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE...SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PASSES AND NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...WE LOOK FOR THIS TO TRANSITION INTO MAINLY AN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN EVENT...BUT WITH THE BEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. THUS...OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL FRIDAY...WE LOOK FOR GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN MOST OF THE REMAINING LOW LANDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE HAVE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. GIVEN ALL THIS...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES. LOOK FOR FRIGID TEMPS TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING CLOSER TO THE 30 DEGREE MARK AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY AND THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PLACES SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUB-ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM RALEIGH COUNTY...NORTH TO RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND TAYLOR COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 15 TO MINUS 30 DEGREES. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A WINTRY MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY... GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS 19-22Z...THEN SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET AGL AFTER 00Z. ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AOA 4000 FEET AGL...EXCEPT VFR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO. WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 04Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN MAINLY SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR IN GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD...WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY END QUICKER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JMV

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