Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150208 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 908 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance exits later tonight, and then another crosses Thursday. A cold front crosses early Friday. High pressure Friday night. Low pressure again this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 910 PM Wednesday... Adjusted PoP and weather per latest radar images. Removed thunder overnight as lightning is no longer occurring. The rest of forecast remains on track. As of 240 PM Wednesday... A couple of upper level waves will bring periods of rain across the area through Thursday. Models and other guidance suggest that the bulk of the pcpn will fall over the northern half of the CWA through Thursday. Models continue showing 1 to 3 inches possible. With soils near saturation, it will take less rain to cause flooding. Therefore, a Flood Warning continues in effect for all our CWA until Friday night. Warm and moisture advection will continue under southwest low level flow. Expect low clouds tonight. Went with the super blend of models for temperatures through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... A shot of heavy rainfall is expected Thursday night into Friday across Central to Northern West Virginia and SE Ohio. Strong southwesterly LLJ pumps moisture into the region tomorrow with GEFS indicating highly anomalous PWATs of 4 to 5 standard deviations across the Ohio Valley and into Northern West Virginia by 00Z Friday. Precipitation should intensify through the overnight hours and into early Friday morning as a frontal boundary, and surface low pressure system moves into the Ohio Valley region. Still some uncertainty exists on where the heaviest QPF will set up, but over 2 inches will be possibly through Friday morning. The front sags south across the area on Friday morning, with moderate rain moving south with time. However, amounts will be much lower across the southern half of the CWA, as moist SW inflow cuts off and best upper level support slides eastward. Have considered canceling flood watch across southern counties, but with as saturated as it has been we will let it ride for now. Colder air on NW flow pushes in behind the front Friday night, and some light upslope snow showers will be possible, although accumulations will be light. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM Wednesday... Brief dry period for at least the first part of Saturday, but high pressure will quickly slide to our east. Wet and unsettled weather will return by Saturday afternoon and more widespread rain is expected with a quarter to three quarters of an inch possible. Models have trended a bit colder across the mountains with this feature and now have 1 to 3 inches of snow in the forecast Saturday night into Sunday for the NE West Virginia Mountains. Next week continues look very active, with several waves possibly impacting the region. Ensembles and operational guidance continue to show ridging at H500 with deep return flow through the period. Temperatures will be warm and plenty of moisture will be available, so the threat for another heavy rain event is there next week. However, at this time, guidance solutions continue show tons of uncertainty. Any confidence on when or how much rainfall will be possible remains low past day 4, but will have to continue to monitor for the potential of flooding once again. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 715 PM Wednesday... Upper level wave crosses east to produce areas of rain and embedded rain showers tonight. Radar images indicate that this convection is moving rapidly to the east. However, brief periods of IFR visibilities are possible with the heavier showers. The rain will taper off from west to east later tonight. Models suggest that a low status deck will develop overnight across most sites except BKW. Fog should not be an issue since Boundary layer winds from the NAM and RAP13 show 15 to 20 knots through the early morning hours. Models are targeting the northern half of the area with moderate to heavy rain due to a second upper level wave through late Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes may vary. May get more visibility restrictions in mist/drizzle later tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M H L M M H M M H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M H H H M L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Periods of IFR possible in rain, fog and/or stratus at times through Friday, and then again late Saturday and Saturday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Friday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through Friday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Friday evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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