Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190535 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 135 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front sinks southward into the area on Friday, only to retreat back northward on Saturday. A new cold front will cross from the west Sunday night. High pressure crosses Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1045 PM Friday... Dried and cleared forecast out early on during the overnight, per loss of diurnal convection earlier, and large dry slot evident on GOES-R upper vapor channel 8. As of 810 PM Thursday... Forecast on track with diurnally driven convection having waned. As of 215 PM Thursday... Got all kinds of cloud streets going on in the southwesterly flow, with a few of the towering cumulus actually bringing showers with isolated lightning. The main issue preventing full fledged development is the dry mid and upper layers, and the moisture depth is largely insufficient. Cold front drops into the CWA later tonight, keeping the chances for convection going into the overnight. Through the day 1 period, not expecting a severe threat, and activity should be scattered enough to prevent hydro issues. Cold front retreats back north as a warm front Friday, before sinking back to the south Friday evening. Moisture depth increases, losing the issues from today in that regard, but the flow will be on the decrease. 850mb winds should be under 15kts, and the 0-6km bulk shear vectors will be in the same neighborhood. Coverage of the activity should increase substantially however, and this is reflected in overall higher POPs. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM Wednesday... Shortwave moves through Friday afternoon for afternoon showers and tstorms. High pressure builds for Saturday though low level instability remains. Prefrontal showers and storms move through Sunday. Dynamics are ok, but likely little to no severe threat. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 255 PM Thursday... Cold front exits during the day Monday and a building surface ridge will help clear out precip. Next system arrives Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 aM Friday... A weak cold front approaches from the west through the early morning hours today. However, this first round of showers and thunderstorms is likely only to affect BKW before daybreak. Not very high confidence of anything occurring on station at this time, so have kept BKW at VFR with VCTS this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are looking to be more widely scattered by this afternoon. If any showers or storms pass over any terminals a drop in Category is likely, but at this time there is very low confidence on where exactly the storms will be. For now I have went with VCTS at all location this afternoon into the this evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High until Friday afternoon then Low to Medium confidence. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More restrictions in thunderstorms through 02Z Saturday may be needed. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/19/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Isolated IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through Sunday with afternoon timeframe most likely occurrence.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...TRM/MPK

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