Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190639 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 239 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level disturbances cross Friday and Saturday, then a cold front crosses Sunday morning. Cool canadian high pressure then takes hold for the early and middle part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 240 AM Friday... No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. Weak shortwaves progged to move through the region today...along with diurnal heating...will help to trigger showers and thunderstorms once again. Storms will contain heavy downpours...and be slow to move...but not overly concerned with water issues as should be not overly widespread in nature. Appears best location for activity today will be across the coal fields and southwest Virginia...with activity decreasing late this evening. Overnight...expecting patchy fog and stratus to once again develop...along with temperatures continuing to remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 pm Thursday... At the start of the period...an axis of moisture associated with a weak short wave trough will be positioned in the far southern reaches of the forecast area. PoP chances will remain elevated in SW Virginia through Saturday morning as both NAM and GFS solutions hold back the southern advancement of slightly drier air at mid levels. Relative minimum of PoP chances will occur early on Saturday afternoon before a cold front and associated moisture move in from the west later in the afternoon. The big change in this forecast package involves the timing of the cold front passage this weekend. The NAM solution has a considerably more progressive movement to the system than in recent days. With support from the latest GFS as well...have fairly high confidence in moving the timing of the precipitation associated with the cold front to early Sunday morning...with the actual front passing in the late morning to early afternoon hours. With this change in timing comes a change in the likelihood for thunder...given a relative minimum in diurnal influences at the time of passage throughout the forecast domain. The progressive nature of the front will likely limit any flooding potential with rainfall that does fall...despite a surge of low and mid-level moisture ahead of the system. Some precipitation will likely linger as moisture gets hung up in the eastern mountains...and have maintained slight chance PoPs in those locations as a result. Temperatures updated with latest MOS/WPC averages early in the period...with a slightly cooler trend on Sunday given more rapid advancement of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 pm Thursday... By Monday morning...any lingering moisture associated with the cold front should have been eradicated from the eastern mountains. Dry and cooler air will filter in behind the front as an airmass with Canadian origins settles in over the Ohio Valley. High confidence continues for a dry and more comfortable weather pattern through Thursday afternoon. As mentioned in previous outlooks...seasonable early morning fog will likely develop in the climatologically favored locations underneath the ridge next week. Our next chance for precipitation will likely wait until later Thursday evening as a front...indicated on both the ECMWF and GFS...approaches from the west. Slightly lowered morning lows from Monday through Wednesday given downward trend on ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance. No major adjustments to daytime highs through the period. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 am Friday... Widespread mvfr/ifr fog and stratus developing across the area this evening. Will generally improve to VFR conditions after 13Z with light surface winds. Convection will fire again...mainly after 15-16Z...with greatest coverage across southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia...creating brief MVFR and IFR conditions. Much of the convection will die down after 02Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except low with fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 08/19/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L M L L M L M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H L L M L L L M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M L M L H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L M L M M H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday evening, Saturday and Sunday, and in fog and stratus most mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...MAC LONG TERM...MAC AVIATION...SL

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