Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 282356 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 756 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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800 PM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED. PREV DISCN... ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/29/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L M M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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