Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300815 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 414 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT IN OUR VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NEAR 08Z...VAD INDICATES SOME 25 TO 30 KNOT FLOW AT 925 MB...STRONGER THAN MODEL SOLUTIONS. PATCHES OF MOSTLY 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL CLOUDS FORMING. STILL SOME VALLEY FOG TRYING TO FORM IN AREAS THAT GOT SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THAT FOG SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...WITH OUR EARLY SUNRISE/SHORT NIGHT. MAIN TREND IS ACTUALLY TO LOWER POPS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BEFORE 700 TO 500 MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT...DRIER AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ACTUALLY WORKS NORTH TODAY. RAP MODEL EVEN TRIES TO HAVE SOME SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LOWER TO NEAR 50 LATE TODAY. DID NOT GO THAT LOW...BUT DID LOWER POPS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SO THINKING IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY...IT WOULD BE RELATIVELY EARLY...LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN TRY TO WANE LATER IN THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH. LOWERED OUR 12 HOUR POP A BIT FOR TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. BY DAWN SUNDAY...BEFORE 12Z...DO HAVE POPS INCREASING BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT EVEN THEN...WE ARE SOUTH OF THE MAIN JET DYNAMICS. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE... TRIED TO KEEP WESTERN COUNTIES AOA MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO START THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING FROM E INDIANA INTO W OHIO SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW OHIO...MOVING TO THE NE AND GRADUALLY BEING TAKEN OVER BY A BIT DEEPER 500MB TROUGH ENTERING THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS TO OUR NORTH...DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE ACTUAL FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE IN OUR VICINITY SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PREVIOUSLY HAD BEEN SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER WITH THE BEST FORCING NOW REMAINING NORTH OF CWA...FEEL THIS RISK HAS DIMINISHED. MODELS ALL INDICATE THE FRONT MANAGES TO CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. ECMWF DOES SHOW A DECENT SLUG OF LIGHT BUT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY...AS WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT. NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS KEEP ALL OF THIS SE OF CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AND HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE BACK TO A CRW-CKB LINE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AT 06Z...A 20 KNOT 925 MB WIND AND PATCHES OF CLOUDS AT 8 TO 12 THSD TRYING TO KEEP VALLEY FOG IN WV AND SW VA AT BAY. WHERE IT RAINED FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF IFR IN LOCAL VALLEY FOG 08Z TO 11Z SATURDAY. SOME DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TRIES TO WORK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON... INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE TODAY. THINKING ANY CONVECTION THAT TIRES TO FORM TODAY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS MAINLY 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT 15Z TODAY...THEN MOSTLY 4 TO 8 THSD FT SCT TO BKN AGL AFTER 22Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG IN WV AND SW VA MAY BE LESS IF MID DECK CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. VSBY WOULD DROP IF A CONVECTIVE CELL MOVES OVER AN AIRPORT SITE THIS AFTERNOON. .AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR IN CONVECTION SUNDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR IN LOW CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

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