Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181131 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 631 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow will bring milder air today through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday. A cold front crosses late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Thursday... Delayed clearing in the mountains until the low level moisture mixes out and the upslope component of flow diminishes later this morning. As of 350 AM Thursday... Arctic air mass, represented by high pressure over the southeastern states, modifies as that high drifts slowly eastward during the near term period, and beyond. In the meantime, a southwest flow of milder air had already become established over the forecast area, with rising temperatures over the hill and ridgetops early this morning. The stratocu in and near the mountains will be eradicated this morning, as the moisture mixes out, and the westerly flow there backs, diminishing the upslope component. The remainder of the forecast is dry with a mainly clear sky, with a dry column, even as upper level ridging gives way to a short wave trough passing by to the north of the area tonight. Temperatures do rise slowly today overtop the snow cover and beneath a low inversion, with wind chills rising above the -10F advisory threshold by 10 AM. Leaned on the lower side of guidance, with highs just making it above freezing across the southern lowlands this afternoon. It will be noticeably less cold compared with one of the coldest days of the winter Wednesday. Lows tonight close to the MET, except lower in the valleys, but not quite as low as the MAV. The persistent pressure gradient will make for only somewhat of a ridge / valley split tonight, as even the valleys are not likely to stay decoupled through the night. Lows generally in the teens, compared with the widepsread single digits of early this morning, reflect the ongoing retreat of the arctic air. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM Thursday... Warm and mostly dry during the short term period with high pressure in control. A warm frontal boundary associated with low pressure moving northeast out of the Plains will lift north across the area late Saturday night into Sunday, with light showers forming as it does so. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 AM Thursday... Cold front associated with aforementioned low will sweep across the forecast area on Monday, with rain developing area wide. Good moisture fetch associated with system, with PW values progged to rise to around an inch, will result in decent rain totals, with qpf values around 0.75 inches or more area wide. Any lingering precipitation will change over to light rain and snow showers Monday night, continuing into Tuesday, with light accumulations possible. Wednesday looks to be dry with more seasonal temperatures. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 630 AM Thursday... MVFR to IFR stratocu in the mountains will mix out later this morning, and the last of the snow flakes will go with it. Otherwise arctic high pressure passing south of the area will then bring VFR weather, a with mainly clear sky. Light southwest surface flow, west to northwest on the ridges, will strengthen and become a bit gusty today, before becoming light again tonight. Flow aloft will be moderate northwest into tonight, and then become moderate west overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR stratocu dissipation may vary this morning. Wind directions and gusts will fluctuate this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 01/18/18 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... None. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for WVZ520- 522>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.