Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231518 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1118 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Disturbance aloft drifts off Virginia coast today. High pressure takes control for Tuesday/Wednesday. No fronts nearing. Marginal moisture/instability may produce showers/storms late Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Fog has burned off and much of the low clouds have either burned off or lifted. Have made some tweaks to sky conditions to reflect this trend. In addition...have made some tweaks to PoPs/Wx to reflect latest short-term guidance. Current forecasted Max Temps are generally higher than any of the guidance. Plan to generally leave these temps untouched for now. Previous discussion... As the upper level low over the mid Atlantic/Carolina coast continues a slow drift east before its turn to the north...the reach of energy aloft to induce convection will shrink over the western half of the CWA. Confine POPS to west/south of the Ohio River for the most part...and will see showers and storms rotate through in a general north to south fashion...similar to yesterday. Areas of north central WV have lower flash flood guidance values given the recent rain in these area...down to around an inch and a quarter in a three hour period. This bears watching...but expect a scattered nature to the convection today...which should limit issues in these wetter areas. Will see better clearing tonight with the exit of the upper level low and surface high pressure settling in...with some development of fog possible in the valleys...especially for the valleys of the higher elevations. No major changes to the temperatures today or tonight...with gradual warming taking place heading into the short term forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The transition to a warmer environment starts on Tuesday. Despite the weak wind flow and poor mixing...the strong May sunshine should counteract the lack of mixing to boost temperatures. In the weak wind flow...and before dew points increase...tried to stay on the low side of mos temperature guidance for Tuesday night minimum temperatures...especially in the mountain valleys. No surface front in sight. Moisture tries to increase and weak disturbance approaching from the west...denting the 500 mb ridge... will keep just the minimum chance pops Wednesday afternoon and model sounding showing some limited instability. For example...00z gfs shows about 500 cape vcnty Hts late Wed...and about 1000 Thursday...but flow remains weak. Those weak 500 mb disturbance pass late Wednesday night into Thursday kept pops through the night for our western and northern counties. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Get ready for summer! Bermuda High to our Southeast will bring warm tropical air into the region with southwesterly return flow off the Gulf pumping northward across the Eastern U.S. Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s by the end of the week with Dew Points possibly getting close 70F. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible each we maximize daytime heating in the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be weak with high Cape pulse air mass storms could bring localized heavy rainfall. With already moist ground in place...any storms that can develop over more flash flood prone areas will have to be monitored closely. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Fog to lift gradually this morning. Ceilings over the mountains may take until 15Z to reach VFR. Convection to fire from CRW to CKB and to the east after 17Z today. Cover this with VCTS/CB in a short window after 19Z when coverage should be nearing its peak for the day. Further to the west at PKB and HTS...VFR with only FEW-SCT cumulus expected. Valley fog expected tonight in clearing. Conditions to deteriorate rapidly after 04Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need brief IFR in prevailing TSRA. Fog timing tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/26 NEAR TERM...JSH/26 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.