Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270808 AAC AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 408 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE W EARLY THIS MORNING..WITH ITS WARM FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST...MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH ERN WV...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND A NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...THIS SOUNDS MORE REASONABLE IF THE WARM FRONT IS SLUGGISH ENOUGH FOR THE COLD FRONT TO OCCLUDE IT. EITHER WAY...THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ON THROUGH THIS MORNING...DECREASING IN AREA COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT CROSSING THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THIS ALLOWS TIME FOR HEATING AND RECOVERY OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS RESURRECTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE DAY 1 SWO OUT OF SPC...WHICH NOW HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE NAM12 ACTUALLY SHOWS THE GREATEST CAPE IN THE NARROW PART OF THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN OHIO...CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW. WITH MANY THOUGH NOT ALL AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE FRI...ANY DOWNPOURS TODAY CAN CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE FFA CONTINUES. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD HYDRO EVENT APPEARS TO BE WANING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE EXITING SYSTEM TONIGHT KIND OF AKIN TO A COOL SEASON SYSTEM. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON EACH COUNT...BUT A COOLER NIGHT THAN RECENT NIGHTS NONETHELESS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY....WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...WHERE COOL/CLOUDY/SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST PART OF SUNDAY. BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY...OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...EVEN AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS EXITS EAST BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NEWD THROUGH WV AS OF 06Z WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA WAS ALLOWING DENSE FOG TO FORM HTS AND PKB AND THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ON THROUGH. NEW AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ERADICATE THE FOG BY DAYBREAK BUT CAUSE INTERMITTENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARD IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES E...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. MVFR STRATOCU WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY TO THE NE WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NT. SE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW SAT AND W TO SW SAT NT...AND MAY BE A BIT GUSTY. MODERATE S FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME STRONG S OVERNIGHT AND THEN MODERATE SW ON SAT...AND MODERATE W SAT NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING AND CONDITIONS COULD VARY. DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT WILL VARY. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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