Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 141819 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 219 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Irma remnants continue to push through the region today with showers. Weak high pressure builds for the weekend, and even into next week, with warm and slightly more humid air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Thursday... Radar images and sfc obs indicate areas or light rain or drizzle across the area. Opted to code stratiform pcpn instead of showery. Satellite images show a broad cloud shield extending from southern IL and western Ky east and north into our area and the further north and east. Expect these low level clouds to persist tonight as they gradually dissipate or move east aways from the area. A high pressure will build to improve conditions across the region Thursday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Thursday... With very light low level flow, stratus will only slowly lift Friday, allowing only some increase in sunshine as the afternoon progresses. After clearing Friday evening, fog is likely to form overnight, as weak high pressure and low level moisture remain in place. The fog will burn off Saturday morning, with less stratus or morning cu, compared with Friday. Ridging surface and aloft will keep the weather dry this weekend, outside of an isolated afternoon mountain shower, with overnight and early morning fog. Went a touch higher than central guidance via GFS-based blended MOS guidance on highs Friday. Otherwise central guidance temperatures accepted, with values a little above normal for mid September, and dew points in the lower to mid 60s making it a touch humid. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 420 AM Thursday... Upper level ridging, and weak surface high pressure, will keep the tranquil weather going early next week. By mid week, models begin to diverge on whether the upper level ridge starts to flatten or not. Central guidance temperatures accepted, with values about a nickel above normal. Lower to mid 60s dew points spell overnight and early morning fog, while making it a touch humid. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Thursday... Scattered areas of light rain are decreasing in coverage and intensity with some places receiving drizzle through this evening. However, IFR visibilities are bouncing to MVFR and forth in some places due to the light rain. An IFR solid 6-8 hundred feet will affect most of sites through around 23-00Z. Dry air is trying to move in but the air mass is moving slowly east, and could take all night to clear out. Conditions will improve early Friday once any low stratus lift and dissipate. On Friday, ceilings could persist during the morning hours improving conditions to MVFR/VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Could see IFR Stratus early Friday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M M M H M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L M M M M H H L BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H M M M H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M H H H M L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in morning stratus and fog through the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ

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