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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 142217
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND STALLS OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
615 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SCHC THUNDER INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN WV ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MENTION OF
THUNDER WANING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH THE YES/NO FACTOR OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING THROUGH DAWN WEDNESDAY.

WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ALOFT...AND WILL FIND THE CWA IN VERY
DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE COME THIS TIME WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...WARM FRONT IS LIKELY BACK IN INDIANA/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS
EVIDENCED BY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL DECK FROM WARM
FRONT/VORT MAX NOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT COULD LINGER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...WITH MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP HINTS OF PVA RUNNING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME HINTS OF PATCHY DEFORMATION OVER
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...BUT TWO INHIBITING PROBLEMS. FIRST IS THE
LACK OF MOISTURE. TONIGHT...WITH SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION
OCCURRING NEAR THE INVERSION AND ANOTHER UP AROUND THE 600MB LEVEL
MAY NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN WEAK ELEVATED ASCENT. SECOND IS
A SECOND INVERSION ALOFT IN THE 750-700MB LAYER. CANNOT DECISIVELY
SAY THAT NO PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND...BUT THE BET ON
THIS FORECAST IS NOTHING MEASURABLE WILL FALL. CAPPED THE POPS AT
14 PERCENT AND ADDED SPRINKLES TO THE 14 VALUE. SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY WET SURFACES FROM PERRY TO POCAHONTAS.

COLUMN RETURNS TO A PRIMARILY DRY STATE WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
RELATIVELY HIGH BASED CUMULUS IN PLACE FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
850MB TEMPERATURES HIT THE UPPER TEENS...TRANSLATING TO A JOLT IN
THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENTERING INTO UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. CULPRIT IS A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE CWA WED
NIGHT. BRING THIS INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING
BACK TO N CWA BOUNDARY THU. THERE ARE SOME DIFF AMONGST THE MDLS
PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AT ANY GIVEN
TIME. HEDGED FCST ON MESO NAM VS GFS. WILL CARRY A DIURNAL TREND IN
POPS...LKLY IN AFTN...CHC OVERNIGHT. PW ARND 1.4 INCHES POOLED ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS
AND QUASI STATIONARY NATURE TO BOUNDARY...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
TRAINING FOR ANY WATER CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY...LEAVING THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO WERE USED WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID LEVEL DECK THAT NOW IS ERODING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS MINOR DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AFFECTING PKB/CKB/EKN
PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES IN ANYTIME TONIGHT...TO EVEN AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY. COLD
FRONT TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20KTS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF/INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LONGER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/30/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26