Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRLX 231518
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1118 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016
Disturbance aloft drifts off Virginia coast today. High pressure
takes control for Tuesday/Wednesday. No fronts nearing. Marginal
moisture/instability may produce showers/storms late Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fog has burned off and much of the low clouds have either burned
off or lifted. Have made some tweaks to sky conditions to reflect
this trend. In addition...have made some tweaks to PoPs/Wx to
reflect latest short-term guidance.
Current forecasted Max Temps are generally higher than any of the
guidance. Plan to generally leave these temps untouched for now.
As the upper level low over the mid Atlantic/Carolina coast
continues a slow drift east before its turn to the north...the reach
of energy aloft to induce convection will shrink over the western
half of the CWA. Confine POPS to west/south of the Ohio River for
the most part...and will see showers and storms rotate through in a
general north to south fashion...similar to yesterday. Areas of
north central WV have lower flash flood guidance values given the
recent rain in these area...down to around an inch and a quarter in
a three hour period. This bears watching...but expect a scattered
nature to the convection today...which should limit issues in these
Will see better clearing tonight with the exit of the upper level
low and surface high pressure settling in...with some development of
fog possible in the valleys...especially for the valleys of the
higher elevations. No major changes to the temperatures today or
tonight...with gradual warming taking place heading into the short
term forecast period.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The transition to a warmer environment starts on Tuesday. Despite
the weak wind flow and poor mixing...the strong May sunshine should
counteract the lack of mixing to boost temperatures.
In the weak wind flow...and before dew points increase...tried to
stay on the low side of mos temperature guidance for Tuesday
night minimum temperatures...especially in the mountain valleys.
No surface front in sight. Moisture tries to increase and weak
disturbance approaching from the west...denting the 500 mb ridge...
will keep just the minimum chance pops Wednesday afternoon and
night...as model sounding showing some limited instability. For
example...00z gfs shows about 500 cape vcnty Hts late Wed...and
about 1000 Thursday...but flow remains weak.
Those weak 500 mb disturbance pass late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning...so kept pops through the night for our western
and northern counties.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Get ready for summer! Bermuda High to our Southeast will bring
warm tropical air into the region with southwesterly return flow
off the Gulf pumping northward across the Eastern U.S.
Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s by the end of the week
with Dew Points possibly getting close 70F. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day...as we maximize daytime
heating in the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be weak with high
Cape values...so pulse air mass storms could bring localized heavy
rainfall. With already moist ground in place...any storms that can
develop over more flash flood prone areas will have to be
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fog to lift gradually this morning. Ceilings over the mountains
may take until 15Z to reach VFR.
Convection to fire from CRW to CKB and to the east after 17Z
today. Cover this with VCTS/CB in a short window after 19Z when
coverage should be nearing its peak for the day. Further to the
west at PKB and HTS...VFR with only FEW-SCT cumulus expected.
Valley fog expected tonight in clearing. Conditions to deteriorate
rapidly after 04Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need brief IFR in prevailing TSRA. Fog
timing tonight may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning.