Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
801 FXUS61 KRLX 110539 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1239 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A WINTRY MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SNOW SHOWERS TO END OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BKW...AND THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EKN AND CKB JUST TO THE WEST...LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...IFR SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...BUT STILL SEEING 2SM SNOW IN BKW. WILL KEEP THIS GOING FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT AND DISSOLVES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.