Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161731 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 131 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mainly dry today and tonight. Weak cool front approaches Monday. Dry high pressure mid week, then warmer and more humid with more storms by Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Sunday... Plenty of cumulus out there this afternoon, but expecting a dry day for most. Like with previous forecast, maintained an isolated t-shower across the northern mountains this afternoon as a weak area of frontogenesis and 500mb vorticity drift through. A weak front approaches from the northwest late tonight and tomorrow. Also have a weak surface trough just east of the forecast area. Went with isolated to scattered showers and storms near these two features, but cut back POPs and cloud cover across the central part of the forecast area with dry air in place. Used a blend of near term guidance for temperatures with little change today and tonight. Did bump up highs a touch Monday, especially across the area where POPs/sky were cut back.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 255 AM Sunday... Models show weak upper trough over the eastern U.S. weakening further, allowing eastward expansion of the upper high into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this period. For Tuesday and Wednesday, with heights and temps increasing aloft, and a rather flat pressure pattern with the dissipation of the front, will keep these two days precip free. Temperatures will see an increase each day, reaching around 90 degrees by Wednesday. It will also gradually get more humid each day, but heat indices are expected to remain below headline criteria.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday... During this period, we will generally be on the northern periphery of the expansive upper high across the southern half of the nation. In this pattern, being on the very southern edge of the westerlies aloft with embedded upper disturbances, and a southwesterly low level flow of moist and unstable air around a surface ridge from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic, the prospects for convection increase. Given the forecast uncertainty at this time range of upper disturbances and any fronts to our north, will have general chance pops this period. It will be hot and humid with heat indices in the 90s, but still below headline criteria, especially with prospects of convection. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 125 PM Sunday... VFR conditions expected today with cumulus drifting through. Cannot rule out an isolated t-shower across the northern mountains, but low enough coverage to not include in EKN. Expect a repeat fog appearance tonight, with dense valley fog forming shortly after 06Z. Like this morning, the fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise. Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across mountains and in SE Ohio Monday afternoon, but low confidence in any of these impacting a TAF site so made no mention in the TAFs for this issuance. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and extent could vary tonight. May eventually need to add a shower or storm mention for tomorrow -- especially across mountains. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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