Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150126 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 926 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms tonight into Friday as a cold front gradually passes through the region. Cooler and dry this weekend. Cold to start the new work week, with snow showers for some.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 915 PM Thursday... Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to drift southeast towards/into the far northwest portion of the CWA in southeast Ohio. While dry low-level air should begin to inhibit thunderstorm activity as storms move further south/east throughout tonight, the potential remains across SE OH for damaging wind gusts and hail over the next several hours, with even an isolated tornado or two possible. A Tornado Watch has been issued for Morgan/Perry counties until 1 AM. As of 435 PM Thursday... Made a quick update to increase PoPs across the Mid-Ohio Valley to represent the activity currently moving in/across the area. Activity has generally weakened, with mainly just scattered showers across SE OH and far northwest WV. A couple strong to severe storms are approaching NE KY and our far southwestern counties in SE OH. The area of most concern is NE KY as a gradually weakening supercell continues to slide eastward towards the area. Large hail and gusty winds are the main threats. The storm should continue to slowly weaken as it encounters dry low-level air across the region. Further southeast, the main concern continues to be elevated fire weather conditions this evening due to RH values in the mid 20s to low 30s, with wind gusts of 15-25 MPH. Please continue to follow local/state spring fire laws. As of 200 PM Thursday... Key Points: - A decaying line of storms may bring some briefly gusty conditions to Southeast Ohio in the middle or late afternoon. - Locally heavy rain is possible later tonight into Friday across much of the area. The line of storms currently moving across western Ohio will likely push east to our Ohio counties between 330PM and 5PM or so this afternoon. It remains to be seen how strong they`ll be by the time they reach there, but at least some showers and gusty winds appear possible. As they reach and pass Parkersburg, they`ll continue to weaken, and may completely dissipate before reaching the Clarksburg area. After that initial line, expect a brief break before areas of showers and some steadier rain ahead of the approaching front, along with embedded thunderstorms, slides southeastward across the area tonight. Expect the precip to continue for much of the morning, then gradually end from northwest to southeast in lower elevations between noon and sunset on Friday. Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the higher terrain at the end of the period. After a very warm day today, with lower elevation highs largely in the mid to upper 70s and mountain highs in the 60s, the clouds and S`ly winds ahead of the front will keep it mild tonight - 50s to near 60s for most. With the rain and clouds tomorrow, highs on Friday will be limited to the 50s in the mountains and 60s at lower elevations, and if the front moves faster than expected, that would limit temps further in our far northwestern zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 155 PM Thursday... A few showers may linger across the south and the mountains Friday evening before drier and cooler weather takes hold for the weekend. Lows temperatures Saturday morning will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with daytime highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Surface low pressure transiting north of the Upper Great Lakes Saturday night will drag a generally dry reinforcing cool front through the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 PM Thursday... Cool and dry conditions linger Sunday as much drier air behind the cool front filters into the region. Persistent, cold northwesterly flow over the Upper Great Lakes with H850 temps of around -18C should yield a decent moisture flux off the water surface where temperatures have risen to the mid 40s. Steep low level lapse rates overhead, coupled with wet bulb zero values below the freezing mark should yield some decent snow showers/squalls during the day Monday. With air temperatures generally above freezing, soil temperatures well above freezing and increasingly hostile to snow Sun angles, would not expect any impactful snow accumulations, especially with warm air above the cold dome constraining parcels to generally beneath the dendritic growth layer. Localized visibility impacts in heavy snow showers would be possible. Weakening northwesterly flow coupled with the loss of surface heating should see showers dissipating Monday evening with clearing skies. With the aforementioned dry air in place and slackening gradients, will likely see a hard freeze area wide Tuesday morning which could be detrimental to any early vegetation that has emerged in recent warmth. Models solutions differ in the handling a clipper system passing through the region on Tuesday night, this could yield some additional light rain or snow showers, confidence is low given expected rather dry low levels. For the remainder of the week the region largely remains in the baroclinic battleground between arctic high pressure and much warmer to the south. With the lack of appreciable moisture, the temperature forecast will be the primary conundrum. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 810 PM Thursday... VFR conditions persist early tonight, with gradually worsening flight conditions throughout the night as showers and thunderstorms move in from the northwest. MVFR CIGs and IFR/MVFR VSBY restrictions are expected as precipitation overspreads the area. Some storms across the Mid-Ohio Valley will likely have gusty winds, heavy rain, and potentially even hail with them. MVFR CIGs linger area-wide on Friday, with even IFR possible at times. Isolated to scattered rain showers persist throughout the day, with MVFR VSBY likely in any heavier rainfall. Rain gradually dissipates from northwest to southeast through the day. Southwest flow persists throughout tonight and could be gusty at times, particularly with any thunderstorms. A strengthening low-level jet could result in low-level wind shear overnight, with this coded into a few of the TAFs. Surface flow veers to northwest throughout Friday following the passage of a cold front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms tonight could vary. Timing of reduced ceilings along/behind the front on Friday may vary from the forecast. MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible within heavier showers on Friday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 03/15/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR possible Friday night with low stratus in/near the mountains. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JP/GW NEAR TERM...FK/GW SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GW

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