Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221811 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 211 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in tonight and Thursday. Warm front Friday morning. Unsettled with waves of low pressure over the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 205 PM Wednesday... High pressure sails through PA tonight providing for a clear and cold night. There may be enough gradient wind across southern areas to keep at least the hills from tanking too much. Otherwise...rolled with the coldest guidance which resulted in little difference from previous grid. Freeze warnings have already been posted for the KY counties. Thursday will feature return flow setting up, allowing for a quick moderation in temps. It will be another low RH day and with another day of 10 hour fuels drying, an increasing fire danger threat will exist...though winds will not be a strong as today. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 510 AM Wednesday... A large high pressure system featuring very dry air over the northeast and mid Atlantic Thursday morning, moves off the east coast by Friday morning, but still ridges back into the middle Atlantic. RH values drop into the 20s north and upper 20s to lower 30s south Thursday afternoon, so will have to watch wind speeds, which should be light given proximity of high pressure, and fuel moisture, which has today and Thursday to dry out. Warm advection associated with a northern stream system may spread precipitation across northern portions of the area Thursday night into Friday. There is a small chance for snow, sleet and / or freezing rain at the front end over the northern WV mountains early Friday morning, until surface temperatures climb above freezing, which should occur by dawn. As that system moves on into the Canadian maritimes Friday afternoon through Saturday, the forecast area will reside in a mainly dry warm sector with southerly flow, as surface high pressure continues ridging back into the middle Atlantic. A southern stream upper level low will drive a cold front toward the area Saturday night, resulting in an increasing chance for showers, and thunderstorms may arrive late if they survive from upstream. Models continue to trend later with this feature. Temperatures close to central guidance other than to follow MOS and a regional blend, which better depict overnight warming, Thursday night. Highs Saturday are a little higher than previous in the warm sector which now dominates much of the day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 510 AM Wednesday... A southern stream upper level low opens up as it passes north of the area Sunday, dragging a weakening Pacific cold front across, with the likelihood for showers and the chance for mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Very weak Pacific high pressure follows for Sunday night and Monday, leaving a lot of residual moisture resulting in plenty of clouds, and even spotty light precipitation. Another southern stream upper level trough approaches Monday night, pushing a warm front, perhaps along with a warm wave, across the area Monday night. A cold front may approach on Tuesday, depending upon the influence of the northern stream. Temperatures close to central guidance and above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 210 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions through the TAF period amid a mainly clear sky. Winds will slacken tonight as high pressure builds across the north. Thursday, the low level flow will turn more easterly and southeasterly as the high pressure moves away. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.