Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230626 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 226 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low passes to the south and then to the east, keeping rain mainly in the south and east through Sunday. High pressure early next week. Next system late Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 225 AM Sunday... Brief break in the precipitation across much of the area this morning. Upper low near SE MO/SO IL/WRN TN areas, will deepen and gradually move east and south into the southeastern U.S. today and tonight, with precipitation gradually working its way northward into the CWA once again. Still a bit of a discrepancy between the models concerning how far north precipitation and cloud shield will make it in the near term period, but generally thinking southeast Ohio and adjacent counties will stay relatively dry in the near term, with increasing chances of moisture spreading into these areas towards the end of the period/Monday morning. Still looking like most favorable area for heavier precipitation is across extreme southern/eastern zones, and thinking current watch headlines in place look good for now, so no plans to expand at this point. Creeks and streams have been running high across the FFA area, but at this point, no problems have been identified. Across the north, a drier air mass is in place, with dew points in the 30s. This, with the expected less cloud cover, will result in warmer temperatures across the north today, with southern half of the CWA, particularly the mountainous counties, remaining cloudy, and cool, along with the increasing threat of shower activity as the day progresses.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday... As the stacked low pressure system creeps towards the southeast coast, inverted troughs aloft and at the surface will prevent a quick exit to the showers through the Monday evening time frame. The system will travel up the coast, lending its influence both in terms of the non dry forecast and considerably cooler temperatures on the eastern slopes of the mountains for Monday and Tuesday, comparatively to the lowlands on the other side. Will take some time to eliminate the mid level moisture from the lows to the east, so have a mainly cloudy forecast in place for the short term. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday... After warming through recovering thicknesses and 850mb temperatures through mid week, long range operational models still having trouble with the next system, which has now become more of a Thursday entity. Two weak upper level waves will merge to the northwest over the western Great Lakes, and continue a track northeastward into northern Ontario, but a frontal system will be poised to push through the Ohio Valley. However, with the main energy well away from our CWA, the frontal system will likely shear out, and the low POP solution into Thursday night is likely to fluctuate in coming runs, but stay on the low end. Baroclinic zone sets up into the weekend, so the higher temperature forecast for the end of the week that came out yesterday has come down a few degrees back to lowland low 80s. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 126 AM Sunday... VFR conditions, generally along and north of a line from KCRW to KCKB. This will be the general rule through at least 15Z, although, patchy mvfr and ifr fog cannot be completely ruled out at this point in areas that have cleared. South and east of a line from KCRW to KCKB, IFR and LIFR conditions exist, particularly at site KBKW, where VLIFR is expected to continue through at least 15Z when some improvement to IFR is expected. Otherwise, shra and lowering clouds will increase from south to north later today, generally after 15Z, with widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions redeveloping, mainly along and south of KCRW, with mainly VFR conditions expected north of KCRW into parts of northeast KY, southeast OH, and northern WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could develop in areas that have cleared tonight. Timing and development of rain and associated MVFR and IFR conditions on Sunday may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 04/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H M H M M H M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible into Monday with another wave of low pressure.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ033-034. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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