Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191311 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 911 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH CLOUDS TODAY FROM STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...BUT DRY WITH WARM AFTERNOONS FOR EASTER WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS...OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MODELS SHOW THAT THE STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROVING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER. MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL SIDE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...SO WILL STAY TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/SL SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...RPY

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