Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 110602 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 152 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT BOUNDARY WEAKENS BY SATURDAY BUT REMNANTS LIFT NORTH. SUMMER LIKE SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO SLOW THE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS WELL AS LIFTING THE FRONT NORTH. HOWEVER...MODELS BRING NONE PCPN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AT H850 TO 30 KNOTS AND ON SUNDAY FROM 40 TO 50 KNOTS BRINGING A WARMER AIR MASS TO THE REGION INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE... MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHEAST FLOW ADDING DOWN SLOPE WARMING...TO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BIAS CORRECTED SREF AND NAM LOOK IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THOUGHT...THUS USED THEM FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW A WEAKER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS INCREASE CONFIDENCE ON THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT SWINGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST...THEN REMOVED POPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE THREAT FOR WATER PROBLEMS HAVE DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVE SOUTH...AS REPETITIVE SHOWERS COULD NOT MATERIALIZE. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOUT 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED. THESE VALUES ARE LOWER THAN 6 HOURS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WHICH RAIN FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FURTHER GUIDANCE IN CASE CHANGES ARISE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE ALONG COLD FRONT. AS SUCH HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE PUSHED BACK EVEN A FEW HOURS LATER. MAJOR TROF AMPLIFICATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MEAN ANOTHER COOL DOWN. THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY HANGS BACK FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG FRONT NEAR THE E COAST LATER TUESDAY. THE NEW RUN OF ECMWF BACKS THIS UP...WHICH WOULD BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF RAIN...A RATHER CHILLY RAIN AT THAT. IN FACT...SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AN APRIL SNOWFALL AS H85 TEMPS OF EURO ARE RATHER CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE MIDWEEK WITH A DRY BUT STILL COOLISH WX REGIME. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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06Z FRIDAY THRU 06Z SATURDAY... A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE TONIGHT...BUT IF CLOUDS BREAK WITH A VERY LIGHT WINDS FLOW TONIGHT...FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AFTER 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW TO MEDIUM BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES COULD VARY. FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IS AN ISSUE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/11/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... FOG OR LOW STRATUS DECK MAY DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30/JW NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JMV

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