Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 120534 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1234 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front pushes north tonight. A cold front crosses Thursday night, but stalls just south of the area Friday. It then meanders about the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 940 PM Wednesday... Not much change as rain showers moving out per forecast and temps slowly rising overnight. Main change was to keep things breezier overnight. As of 200 PM Wednesday... Warm front will cross from south to north through the remainder of the afternoon, bringing showers back into the picture. Once the warm front passes, temps may actually climb a bit overnight with everyone waking up to a very warm morning. Winds will be gusty at times tonight, especially on the hilltops and ridges. Thursday will feature the area firmly entrenched in the warm sector. There may be some spotty showers from time to time across southeast OH but most of the area should be dry, though clouds will be abundant. Despite the cloud cover, temps should surge well into the 60s across the lowlands, with a few locales perhaps touching the 70 degree mark. The front will make a run into southeast OH late in the afternoon with a narrow band of showers. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Models show strong southwest flow at H850 about 50-60 knots. These winds will bring warm advection once again Thursday. colder air behind the front will bring temperatures into the 30s Friday night. Cold front will sink southward Thursday night and Friday, and stall south of the area Friday night. Overrunning precipitation is possible north of the front, given the confluence zone in zonal flow sets up north of the area. A flat wave nudges the front northward into the area Saturday, increasing the chance for precipitation, which is most likely Saturday afternoon and evening, before the wave moves on past. Arctic high pressure over the Great Lakes Friday night through Saturday night will funnel low level cold air into the area. This will make freezing rain possible across northern portions of the area Friday night into Saturday, before the front pushes northward. This pattern will shift back south Saturday night, as the wave exits. Will add a mention of this threat into the HWO. Used the blend of models for temperatures through the period. There will be a gradual warming trend through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Sfc high pressure over the northeast and the mid Atlantic states will diminish chances for PCPN Sunday night. The front that stalls across the south, then lifts north as a warm front bringing chances for shower Monday. Another cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday keeping chance for showers. Went with the blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Thursday... Mainly VFR conditions through at least 22Z, when rain showers will move back into the region, although local MVFR conditions in a passing shower are possible across southeast Ohio. Widespread MVFR will develop after 00Z Friday as a cold front, and associated showers move back into the region. In addition, gusty southwesterly winds out ahead of approaching cold front, with gusts in the 20 kt range across the lowlands, and in the 30 to lower 40 kt range higher terrain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Conditions may be more variable north and west this afternoon. Timing of precipitation and associated MVFR conditions could vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 01/12/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Local IFR possible Thursday night in rain showers and low cigs.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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