Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240031 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 821 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. WARM FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO TAKE CONTROL IN COLDER WEEKEND AIR. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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730 PM UPDATE...WITH SOUTHERN END OF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RACING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING...RAISED POPS AND INSERTED MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FOR PORTIONS OF PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO. SENT OUT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR A QUICK INCH IN THOSE LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AREA REMAINS WITHIN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN SO...CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL SHOWN TO MINOR OUT AS IT SKIRTS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SFC LOW FCST TO FILL ALTOGETHER. IT WAS STILL WELL DEFINED IN THE SFC WIND FIELD AS 0F 16Z...BUT CG LIGHTNING WAS ON THE WANE AND SFC PRESSURE WERE CLOSE TO MODEL FCSTS. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION JUST N OF THE CWA AND THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER N THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON LIKELY POPS SAVE FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS. THIS PLACEMENT COINCIDES WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE H3 JET. THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SO USED HIGHS SFC TEMPERATURES THRESHOLDS AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES IN THIS EVENING GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. KEPT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...MAINLY IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH THERE. MEANWHILE...FRONT S OF THE AREA STARTS TO RETURN FROM THE SW AS A WARM FRONT TUE AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION IS COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE AREA OF THE SAME H3 JETLET. MODELS DO DIFFER ON TIMING OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WENT WITH A COMPROMISE...WITH POPS INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE LATE IN THE DAY TUE. LITTLE CHANGE ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE HIGHS REFLECT LOWER GUIDANCE TUE BENEATH CLOUD CANOPY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY...AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...AS THE WF LIFTS NORTH. EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLDER TREND SHAPING UP FOR THE EXTENDED BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MODIFIES THE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE MARCH. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL KNOCK THEM BACK DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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00Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY... CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSES MAINLY N OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTHERN EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF A PKB...CKB...AND EKN LINE. IFR IN SNOW...OTHERWISE VFR. THEN MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTH AFTER 03Z AS NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS THAT MOISTURE UP NORTH SOUTHWARD REACHING BKW BY 12Z...WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 13Z...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM THE SW TUE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 03/24/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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