Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
567 FXUS61 KRLX 230523 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 123 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and east today and tonight. Upper level low brings chances of showers Wednesday into Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 115 AM Tuesday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary. As of 725 PM Monday... No significant changes necessary. Previous forecast on track. As of 205 PM Monday... No significant changes to the forecast this afternoon. Did introduce slightly more cloud cover in the sky grids to account for lingering clouds and streaming cirrus. Otherwise, forecast is on track. As of 1050 AM Monday... Radar still showing some lingering showers in the mountains with other locations rain free. Visible satellite imagery highlights clearing north of the Ohio River. Expect rain to taper off in the next few hours and clearing to slowly overspread the area as a surface high slowly slides northeast across Ohio. Until the pressure gradient relaxes more, could see occasional gusts on the order of 10 to 15 kts. Otherwise, temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s this afternoon. Moisture returns tomorrow ahead of a wave rounding the base of an upper trof to our west. While there are questions as to how far the moisture will reach, will carry PoPs south of the Ohio River with the best chance of showers in the mountains.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 PM Monday... A weak low pressure system will move off to the east Tuesday night as a slow moving upper level low pressure system approaches from the west. This upper level system will bring a cold front through the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, providing a band of showers and thunderstorms. The front will be followed by the upper low on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 324 PM Monday... Showers should end on Friday as the upper level low pulls off. The dry weather will be brief however, as the models are showing a warm front for Saturday. For Sunday and Monday, some considerable differences exist in the models, so confidence in the forecast declines. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 725 PM Monday... Radar and satellite images show no rainfall activity over the region. VFR conditions have been reported at all sites. However, visibilities at CRW has dropped from 10 to 8 miles, and down to 6 miles at EKN. These features could indicate that fog is forming along these river basins and perhaps become MVFR/IFR later overnight. Plenty of clouds will prevent fog from forming at many places. Only the protected valleys could experience fog this morning. High resolution and synoptic models suggest a series of shortwaves will lift north across eastern KY and southern WV to produce showers mainly western slopes and eastern mountains during the afternoon hours. These showers could produce brief periods of IFR under heavy rain. Otherwise, expect MVFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low particularly concerning fog potential tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and density of fog may vary overnight. Timing on lower cigs and SHRA may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Increasing chance of MVFR to IFR in SHRA through mid week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK/DTC NEAR TERM...SL/DTC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.