Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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903 FXUS61 KRLX 121830 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 130 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Snow showers continue this evening in cold air advection. Another system arrives by late week with another chance for snow showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 115 PM Tuesday... Strong cold air advection behind a cold front will continue this evening. This will combine with an upslope flow and a plume off of Lake Michigan to provide some snow showers. With the arctic air becoming drier as the night progresses, the snow showers will become tighter against the mountains except in the lake plume. This plume should gradually lift northward overnight. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the WV mountains for snow. The combination of winds and cold temperatures will push wind chills in the higher elevations into the -10 to -20 F range. Will continue the Wind Chill Advisory for these areas. Warm air advection can be expected on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 233 AM Tuesday... High pressure builds into the area on Wednesday bringing any remaining mountain snows to an end. As the high builds in, winds should diminish allowing the wind chill advisories to come to an end as well. The dry weather does not last long. An upper level trough and surface low pressure will push east Wednesday night into Thursday bringing another round of wintry precipitation to the region. Another upper level trough and surface low will bring yet another period of unsettled weather from late Thursday night into Friday night. Went with model blends for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 233 AM Tuesday... Another area of high pressure will build in Saturday. As a result, dry weather is anticipated for much of Saturday into early Sunday. Another low pressure system will approach the area from the southwest on Sunday and then push east Sunday night. Expect precipitation associated with this feature to spread into the area on Sunday with precipitation chances expected to continue into Monday. With southwesterly winds in place ahead of the low, expect temperatures to rebound with daytime temperatures above normal on Saturday. The airmass immediately behind the low is not that cold. So expect afternoon readings on Sunday to be close to normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 115 PM Tuesday... Snow showers can be expected this afternoon and evening, producing IFR/LIFR conditions at times. As drier arctic air moves into the area, predominate ceilings in the lowlands outside of the Lake Michigan plume will become VFR. The lake plume will continue to produce IFR conditions at times, gradually shifting northward tonight. As warm air advection sets in Wednesday morning, expect any remaining restrictions in the northern WV mountains to end. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow showers and associated restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY L M L M M L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L H M M H M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M L L M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M L H H H L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Another round of snow is expected Wednesday night and Thursday, particularly across the north, with IFR conditions possible.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ516- 518-520-522>526. Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ518-520- 522>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY NEAR TERM...JB/RPY SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...RPY

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