Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260641 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 241 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. WARMING LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY MEAN GOING ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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DEEP TROF WILL LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHRA IN POCAHONTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON WEAK CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AMID A COMMENCING WARMING TREND. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH. THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION. THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS DECK WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/26/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...RPY

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