Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190725 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak front crosses the area today. Upper level high pressure dominates for the remainder of work week with hotter afternoon temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Enough northwest flow aloft to drive the last short wave thru the area this morning...which will then help to drive the front just to our north southward across the area today. Behind the exiting short wave this morning will be drier air aloft spreading southward out ahead of the front itself. Will account for widely scattered morning showers ahead of the short wave...but drier air aloft feeding southeastward will help limit the coverage of showers and possible a storm ahead of the front to mainly the afternoon and in the south. Most of any convection in the south will shut off fairly quickly this evening with loss of heating...and with arrival of drier air. So look for clouds area wide early...generally decreasing from northwest to southeast during the day. Little cooling behind the weak front today...will bring similar highs to yesterday...upper 80s. However...drier air working in tonight with weak high pressure will allow for cooler temperatures tonight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure...surface and aloft to start the period. Mainly dry and warm on Wednesday...with little chance for a shower or storm...with warmer air aloft keeping atmosphere capped. Heat and humidity will be on the increase as the week progresses...and upper ridging builds eastward into the region. Nam and ECMWF indicating the possibility of a shortwave rounding the ridge and moving southeast into the region Thursday night into Friday...generating showers and thunderstorms. For now elected to add just a slight chance across the north due to model disagreement and in coordination with surrounding neighbors. Biggest story of the period will be the increasing heat and humidity...with heat indices possibly making it into the lower 100s across much of the lowlands by Friday into the weekend. Added a mention for the possibility of a heat advisory in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... During the extended period...the upper ridge continues to be the dominate feature. This could bring a mini heat wave for this weekend as most areas will see highs at 90 and above from Friday through at least Sunday. The Euro and GFS are in pretty good agreement in having the ridge flattening out on Sunday. Weak waves moving through the flow could kick off some showers and thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 06Z Tuesday thru 06Z Wednesday... Weak disturbance moving southeast across the area overnight with mainly clouds. Otherwise...weak front drops south across the area Tuesday with widely scattered mainly afternoon convection southern coal fields and mountains. Weak high pressure then takes over Tuesday night. Ceilings with disturbance thru 14z ranging from 4000-6000 feet lowlands to 1500-3000 feet mountains. After 15z...decreasing VFR clouds from northwest to southeast in low lands behind the front...and 3500-4500 feet southern coal fields and central/southern mountains with widely scattered showers and a possible tstm. After 23z...generally clear...except SCT 4000-6000 feet AGL southern mountains. Light and variable to calm winds...except west to northwest winds 4-8 kts during the day. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection today in the south may be less than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/19/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Local ifr in predawn valley fog Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JMV

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