Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 141915 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 215 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A front remains near the area through Monday, before lifting north as a warm front. A cold front can be expected Tuesday night. Another system is possible toward the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday... The next area of rain currently moving into the area. Thankfully most places have warmed above freezing...thus the freezing rain advisory has been cancelled. This final impulse will move out tonight with the old frontal boundary riding its coat tails out of here. In its wake drier and colder air will be trying its hardest to advect south into the area late tonight. This should allow the low stratus to scatter out across portions of southeast OH and northern WV which could result in dense fog or freezing fog forming along with some black ice as surface temps fall into the 20s. Will pass along concern to evening shift for perhaps an SPS to address this. Elsewhere...a period of drizzle will be realized after the system departs with low stratus and fog hanging tough into the morning hours. This will gradually break up as the day progresses on Sunday with some sunshine being realized across the north. This will be temporary as mid and high clouds build in from the west ahead of the next isentropic lift system. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Saturday... The front that has been waffling around the area will lift northward as a warm front Sunday night and Monday. Some models indicating that freezing rain is a possibility Monday morning. Will have to monitor this situation closely. An approaching weak cold front will then bring chances of showers Tuesday, with the front pushing through Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday... Cooler air will move in behind a cold front on Wednesday. Models then have considerable differences for the end of the week and into the weekend, although agreeing on unseasonably warm weather. Therefore, forecast confidence in precipitation is low during this period. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 115 PM Saturday... Widespread IFR or worse conditions will continue through tonight across the area. One final area of rain is moving into the area as of 18Z and will allow vsby to improve out of VLIFR...but still staying below IFR. Cigs may improve a bit as well but will stay IFR or LIFR. This system will move out of the area this evening along with the old frontal boundary as the flow turn more northwesterly. A period of drizzle is expected following the frontal passage. As such we do not anticipate any improvement with cigs or vsby except for northern taf sites as drier air will try to advect in from the north...making it into southeast OH and northern WV late. However, this will only increase the dense fog potential should the low stratus scatter out. Drier air will continue to slowly advect south Sunday morning...allowing for a slow improvement into MVFR at KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing improving conditions at northern taf site may vary several hours. Dense fog may not form is low stratus holds there overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M L M M M L L L L M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H M H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M L L M L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M L L L M L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY M L L M M L L L L L L L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Sunday night into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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