Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181843 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 243 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weather remains unsettled for much of the week with a surface boundary oscillating in the vicinity. Low pressure keeps rain in the forecast through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main band of clouds cover southern half of the CWA and these expected to spread northward in response to approaching wave from the southwest. Weak frontogenetic forcing at mid levels over the ohio valley through tonight should help squeeze out a few showers, mainly on a line south of the I-64 corridor. Elsewhere, atmospheric column fairly dry and only light qpf amounts are expected. Used a models blend for temps, giving deference to clouds cover expected on the over night which should keep min temps up a bit. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 225 PM Tuesday... Weak upper level vorticity max passes Wednesday night/early Thursday, ahead of a cold front poised to pass Thursday night. Entering a more active period in terms of showers and thunderstorms, while getting into a more spring like airmass with dewpoints making the climb into the low 60s. So, will carry a thunderstorm threat in the grids given the setup, but largely of the non severe variety for now.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 225 PM Tuesday... Cold front stall south of the CWA, then lifts back north into the southern mountains heading into the weekend where it appears to stall out. This will necessitate a watchful eye for repeated hits in terms of rain, but will not add a mention in the HWO just yet. Could see more rounds of showers and storms than continuous rain, so breaks in the action could mitigate any water hazard threat. Otherwise, the active trend continues, trending higher than normal amounts of rain in general across the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 140 PM Tuesday... High pressure and relatively dry air mass slides east of the appalachian mountains, as weak warm front and overrunning moisture move north across the ohio river valley. Mostly VFR expected through this evening. However cig and vsby values lower to MVFR over the southern Coalfields, reaching a line from KHTS-KCRW by 06Z with light rain and drizzle developing. Precip and low clouds may cause some mountain obscuration away from TAF sites. Surface gradients will continue to pick up this afternoon as frontogenetic forcing takes place. Will see some gusty southeast winds through about 00z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High remainder of today then medium late tonight ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR ceilings may differ late tonight and into Wednesday. Isold IFR may occur late tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night, as a cold front approaches, and then in stratus behind the front overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/26 NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...KMC

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