Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201251 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 851 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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MUGGY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY CONVECTION. ONE DISTURBANCE EXITS BY MID MORNING. A WARM FRONT SETS UP TO OUR WEST TONIGHT. SECOND WAVE PASSES THURSDAY. WARM FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CUT OUT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...FOCUSING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. PRESERVED INHERITED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER JUICY ATMOSPHERE AND DIURNAL HEATING EFFECTS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 700 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK SAVE FOR FASTER TIMING ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...THE MAIN AREA FALLING APART AS SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMS TO THE E OF THE ORIGINAL AREA...ABOVE THE COOL EARLY MORNING SFC LAYER. PREV DISCN... SOLID BAND OF RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE ENTERING FCST AREA 07-08Z EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BEFORE EXITING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE PEAKED AROUND 40 KTS AND NOW APPEAR TO BE 30 KTS OR LESS. RAINFALL IS HARD BUT QUICK HITTING WITH MOST OF THE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS COMING WITHIN AN HOUR/S TIME. THE FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING AFTER SUNRISE BREAKING UP THE AREA COVERAGE A BIT. THE FEATURE...AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH CROSSING THE GRETA LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...WAS NEVER HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS...WHICH DID KEY IN ON THE CONVECTION MOVING INTO PA MUCH BETTER. THAT CONVECTION GOT CLOSE TO...BUT NEVER REALLY PENETRATED THE NRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN THE WAKE OF THE SRN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT...LIKE TUE...THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTION TO FIRE. THESE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING FASTER THAN ON TUE...IN THAT 25 KT OR SO SWEET SPOT TOO LOW FOR SEVERE AND TOO HIGH FOR FLOODING. THE NEXT THING IS A WARM FRONT THAT SETS UP NW TO SE OVER THE MIDWEST...PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FORM NE OF THE WARM FRONT UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIKELY BEGIN TO ENCROACH THE AREA FROM THE SW TOWARD DAWN THU. A FOCUSED LOW LEVEL FEED INTO THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LACKING IN FAVOR OF A MORE UNIFORM 20 KTS...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BROAD AREA OF GENERAL CONVECTION RATHER THAN SOMETHING FOCUSED...HEAVY AND STRONG. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN INHERITED HIGHS BUT MADE NO CHANGE OWING TO ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND THIS MORNING. BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT FOR LITTLE CHANGE...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY ONE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING DURING THE PERIOD. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED DURING THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO PUSH 2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER ISSUES DURING THE PERIOD IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN LATE. AT THE SURFACE...A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEARBY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WITH A DISTURBANCE FIRST THING THIS MORNING...MAINLY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES BUT DOES NOT ENTIRE GO AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...A QUIETER EVENING SHOULD SETTLE IN THOUGH WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE W. AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLY STRATUS MAY START TO FORM LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT HTS...WHERE HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP TO THE W MAY STUNT THIS. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT SW WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT MAY STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS LIKELY TO VARY IN TERMS OF TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS MORNING. ONSET AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IN THE HUMID ENVIRONMENT...IFR EASILY POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION AGAIN THU NT AND FRI NT. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...TRM

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