Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281705 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1154 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts east today with increasing southerly winds. Periods of rain with several waves of low pressure Monday night through mid week. Cooler high pressure to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Monday... No significant change to forecast. As of 450 AM Monday... A big change from quite dry conditions today to very wet conditions tonight. Models remain consistent on high pressure with very dry air shifting eastward today. A frontal system will approach from the west and move across most of the area tonight. The pressure gradient increases over the area today between the two systems, with increasing southerly winds that will become gusty especially in the mountains. A wind advisory for our SW VA counties is in effect later this afternoon into tonight, with an expansion possible into the other mountain counties tonight. This scenario will also bring a rapid increase of moisture originating from the Gulf of Mexico later today, which will combine with the front to bring widespread rain showers tonight. For today, while we expect an enhanced fire danger, we do not expect to meet red flag criteria. Models indicate that the parameters needed for a red flag do not really come together, that is, while the winds will be increasing so will the moisture, and fuel stick moisture is marginal at best. So no fire headlines. For tonight, good moist inflow and dynamics will bring the widespread rain showers across the area from the west. No mention of thunder with lack of deeper instability. However, there will likely be a relative precip shadow just west of the mountains as southerly winds do a component of downslope for awhile. Nevertheless, we do expect a decent QPF with perhaps near a half inch rainfall in this shadow zone to near one inch elsewhere. Temperatures will be well above normal today despite all the mid- high clouds. Tonight will also be quite mild with the clouds, showers and southerly winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Monday... Operational and ensemble model guidance is in good agreement through the short term period. Start the period off with warm occlusion exiting the region mid morning Tuesday. A cold front will remain to our west on Tuesday and we will be well within the warm sector with deep southwesterly flow by midday. After we clear out, we will see temperatures soar to near 70 degrees across a large portion of the CWA by Tuesday afternoon except for in the mountains. The dry period will be short lived as pattern amplifies and surface low pressure develops on frontal wave along the Gulf Coast States and heads northeast along the front. This next system has better dynamics than the wave coming through tonight into Tuesday morning. We will be in close vicinity to a 150 knot jet entrance region. With diffluence aloft, decent convergence with the front at the surface and weak instability with near a couple hundred joules of CAPE, it will be possible that the heavy rain could have some embedded thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. PWATs are also going to be about 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year, but for the end of November that is only about 1 to 1.1 inches. So there is potential for moderate to heavy rain, and generally widespread 0.5 to 1 inch of QPF. However, there will likely be some isolated spots that receive 1.5 inches or more if some training were to occur. Even if amounts are a bit higher than that the flash flood potential remains very low due to the very dry conditions we have had of late. The creeks/streams should be able to handle a decent amount of rainfall and if any issues arise it will be an isolated incident. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 405 AM Monday... Colder air pushes in on Thursday behind the cold front. Surface high pressure builds in and this will keep us mostly dry, however with northwesterly flow late Thursday night into the weekend I can`t rule our the potential for upslope snow showers. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1200 PM Monday... VFR mid/high clouds can be expected this afternoon and evening...with the exception of some southeast upslope clouds on the eastern slopes of the mountains. Some showers may cause restrictions this evening over southeast OH, northeast KY, and western WV. The band of showers will push eastward overnight with some restrictions possible with the band. The precipitation will move off to the east Tuesday morning, allowing for improving conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this afternoon and evening, then medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in heavy rain midweek.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...RPY

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