Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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426 FXUS61 KRLX 162006 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 306 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold under northwesterly flow aloft tonight through Friday. Warmer over weekend with building heights. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday... Low level moisture coming from the Great Lakes under deep northwest flow continues to decrease this afternoon putting an end to upslope snow showers. Skies will become mostly clear, except for high level clouds, seen on satellite images, that will move over the area tonight. Expect the lower atmosphere to decouple providing light to calm winds tonight. Light winds will pick up from the south on Friday. Another crispy night is in store per caa and radiational cooling on areas that clears. Used a super blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 310 PM Thursday... Other than some pesky showers Saturday night and Sunday morning...the weather in the short term will be quiet with a notable warming trend.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 310 PM Thursday... Dry and very warm to start next week as high pressure, surface and aloft take hold. The next weather maker looks to arrive mid week, with some showers expected.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1200 PM Thursday... Northwest flow and moisture coming from the Great Lakes continue to produce upslope light snow showers over our northeast mountains. This activity will continue through at least 21z. However, widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northwest gusty winds will become light or calm tonight FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could vary in clouds this evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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