Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 140237 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 937 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance crosses southern portion of area through Wednesday morning. Additional shortwaves expected through Thursday. A cold front crosses early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 935 PM Tuesday... No significant changes made. As of 211 PM Tuesday... A high pressure to our north and east will provide dry conditions through this evening. However, a weak upper level disturbance will pass south of the area first thing Wednesday. This will be the beginning of soaking rain expected through mid week. Moisture will be on the increase overnight, which will spread light rain back into the region Wednesday morning. With the approach of the next system, expect a brief drop in temperatures tonight, before becoming somewhat steady overnight. However, highs on Wednesday could reach the lower 60s. Went with the blend of all models for temperatures through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 227 PM Tuesday... Models continue to indicate that deep layer southwesterly flow of increasingly mild and moist air will continue into Thursday night. Multiple upper level short waves will push east across the region. Precipitation chances will be quite high at the beginning of the period with wet weather anticipated into Friday when a cold front pushes southeast across the region. WPC indicates highest QPF is initially expected across the mountain counties Wednesday night. An area of low pressure and associated cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday into Thursday night. Ahead of the front, models are consistent at showing heavy rain will develop across our northern counties Thursday with the precipitation spreading southeast with time. Some of the models suggest some marginal instability may develop across our northwestern counties Thursday afternoon. Per discussion with SPC, have opted to leave mention of thunder out for now. The precipitation will come to an end late Thursday night into Friday as cold high pressure builds in. Some of the rain could chance over to snow as it winds down in the mountains Friday and Friday night. Current thinking is that rainfall amounts of one to three inches are possible from Wednesday Night through Friday. The ground across the region is already quite saturated and this additional rainfall should act to cause flooding issues. Therefore, a Flood Watch is being posted. Used a blend of the Latest temp guidance. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 227 PM Tuesday... Used a blend of model guidance for this period. As a result, have some pops across our southern zones Saturday with the chances spreading north on Sunday, as high pressure exits. Precipitation chances should then continue through the remainder of the period as moisture returns from the south. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 630 PM Tuesday... Generally expecting deteriorating conditions through the TAF period as moisture is on the increase. Have ceilings dropping into IFR at most sites late tonight into tomorrow. Expect light rain or drizzle to develop overnight, with rain lingering tomorrow. Wind will pick up out of the south over the next 6 hours, and remain south to southwesterly through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes may vary. May get more visibility restrictions in fog/mist/drizzle through sunrise. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 02/14/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H L H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H L H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L M M H L H H H H M M L AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... Periods of IFR possible in rain through Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...MZ

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