Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250532 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 132 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure with increasing warmth and humidity by Wednesday. Weak disturbances aloft dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday with isolated storms. Ridge stronger into the Memorial Day weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 730 pm update. No significant change. Previous discussion... Afternoon cu will dissipate after sunset...with another calm clear night on tap...with patchy river valley fog mainly in favored deeper valleys. Warmer...along with increasing humidity...on Wednesday...as ridge axis shifts east across the area. Weak upper disturbance in the flow...in the increasingly humid and unstable atmosphere...may trigger isold showers or storms during peak heating hours mainly across the western 2/3 of the CWA...with the bulk of these dying down with the loss of heating. Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Forcing associated with series of upper level short wave trough moving through Wednesday night into Thursday looks less focused compared with prior runs, with light upper level flow contributing little to the terms. Thus left pops in the chance range and even trimmed back a little. Cells may be slow moving in the high pw air but any problems with water will be localized. Ridging builds in from the east Thursday night through Friday night, with very warm and humid air left in place. Have just the slight chance for late day thunderstorms on Friday. Temperatures were close to the latest guidance. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend. Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the ridge begins to drift east. As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non- negligible chance at night. Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance. Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and guidance. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Expecting less valley fog tonight...with minimal restrictions...except for EKN which should see 2-3 hours of IFR to LIFR fog before dawn. VFR expected today...although chances for showers exist thanks to a weakening upper level disturbance moving into the Ohio Valley. These chances are low overall...and do not warrant any prevailing or TEMPOs in the TAF...but some convective activity will be in the area...especially for the western terminals today. Thunder should be minimal due to increasing cloud cover in the mid to upper levels. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 08Z tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/25/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...26

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