Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 250532
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
132 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
High pressure with increasing warmth and humidity by Wednesday.
Weak disturbances aloft dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday with
isolated storms. Ridge stronger into the Memorial Day weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 pm update. No significant change.
Afternoon cu will dissipate after sunset...with another calm clear
night on tap...with patchy river valley fog mainly in favored
Warmer...along with increasing humidity...on Wednesday...as ridge
axis shifts east across the area. Weak upper disturbance in the
flow...in the increasingly humid and unstable atmosphere...may
trigger isold showers or storms during peak heating hours mainly
across the western 2/3 of the CWA...with the bulk of these dying
down with the loss of heating.
Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Forcing associated with series of upper level short wave
trough moving through Wednesday night into Thursday looks less
focused compared with prior runs, with light upper level flow
contributing little to the terms. Thus left pops in the chance
range and even trimmed back a little. Cells may be slow moving in
the high pw air but any problems with water will be localized.
Ridging builds in from the east Thursday night through Friday
night, with very warm and humid air left in place. Have just the
slight chance for late day thunderstorms on Friday.
Temperatures were close to the latest guidance.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend.
Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east
coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or
thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the
ridge begins to drift east.
As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas
this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may
actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature
inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system
under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that
the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better
chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non-
negligible chance at night.
Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through
the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for
Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the
pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance.
Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Expecting less valley fog tonight...with minimal
restrictions...except for EKN which should see 2-3 hours of IFR to
LIFR fog before dawn.
VFR expected today...although chances for showers exist thanks to
a weakening upper level disturbance moving into the Ohio Valley.
These chances are low overall...and do not warrant any prevailing
or TEMPOs in the TAF...but some convective activity will be in the
area...especially for the western terminals today. Thunder should
be minimal due to increasing cloud cover in the mid to upper
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 08Z
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --