Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230529 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 129 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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130 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP. FROST COULD BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THAT AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES 18-23Z. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT KEKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE .AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.
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&& WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...JS/SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...SL

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