Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 272014 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 404 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. COLD FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME THICKER CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS STILL HAVE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE WORK WEEK. WITH OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...A SMALL DIFFERENCE MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RUN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR NOW. WITH GFS MOS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LIKELY POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/AND ECENS MEAN. THIS WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING BY TODAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW CU ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS COMING IN TONIGHT...SO HAVE LESS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH...ONLY MVFR. STILL INCLUDED LIFR AT EKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JW

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