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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 280716
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
316 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING
THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS IN ITS
WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30