Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190809 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 409 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front sinks southward into the area today, only to retreat back northward on Saturday. A new cold front will cross from the west Sunday night. High pressure crosses Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 355 AM Friday... A weak cold front will meander across the region today and remain in the vicinity into the weekend. Another warm and humid air in place clashing with the frontal boundary should kick off isolated showers and storms early and more scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon. SPC does have the region highlighted in a marginal risk for the day, but the severe threat is relatively low. Instability is definitely there by max heating today with 1500 J/Kg of Cape for most of the area, however wind shear is lacking. 0-6km bulk shear values only topping out in the 20 knot range today will make for unorganized convection. There is also some inhibition with fairly dry air in the midlevels today, but the column does start to moisten up by later this evening. Can`t rule out the potential for an isolated severe storm or two late in the day as precip loading could cause localized damaging winds. Flash flood threat will also be low today due to the highly scattered and unorganized nature of the convection today, but with PWAT values in the 1.25" to 1.5" we will have to watch for the slow moving storms in the weak flow. Localized heavy downpours may produce water problems if they strike more flood prone areas. Convection will likely weaken after sunset tonight. However, with the front still in play and forecast soundings indicating decent elevated Cape values, isolated showers and storms could persist into early Saturday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday... By Saturday, a nearly stationary frontal boundary will be oscillating back and forth across the southern portions of the area. Meanwhile, a very juicy air mass remains in place with theta-e values exceeding 340K at H850 and pwats from 1.5 to 1.78 inches. Deep layered shear looks low. Therefore, seems like we can experience pulse type storms with heavy rain on Saturday. Conditions remains unstable Sunday ahead of the cold front and with the cold front Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday... Cold front exits east of the Appalachians my 12Z Monday with much drier and cool air behind it. Went closer to the blend of models for temperatures and PoPs through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM Friday... A weak cold front approaches from the west through the early morning hours today. However, this first round of showers and thunderstorms is likely only to affect BKW before daybreak. Not very high confidence of anything occurring on station at this time, so have kept BKW at VFR with VCTS this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are looking to be more widely scattered by this afternoon. If any showers or storms pass over any terminals a drop in Category is likely, but at this time there is very low confidence on where exactly the storms will be. For now I have went with VCTS at all location this afternoon into the this evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High until Friday afternoon then Low to Medium confidence. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More restrictions in thunderstorms through 02Z Saturday may be needed. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/19/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Isolated IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through Sunday with afternoon timeframe most likely occurrence. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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