Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151423 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 925 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SUNSHINE RETURNS TODAY. SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TUESDAY COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IN MIDWEST REACHES EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE STORM APPROACHES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS EXPECTED...HOLES AND THIN SPOTS DEVELOPING IN THE SHALLOW LOW OVERCAST BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z...NOT A DISTINCT CLEARING LINE. SO WILL TRY TO HOLD ONTO OUR HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL OUT OF THE SE AT 14Z...WILL TRY TO VEER AND BECOME SOUTH BY 21Z. THE ONE NOTABLE ADJUSTMENT WAS FOR THIS EVENING. THINKING WITH STILL A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NO CEILINGS...THAT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SEE THEIR TEMP DROP TOWARD FREEZING...BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES AND CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS APPROACH DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. SO HAVE A LOWER MIN TEMPERATURE FOR AREAS MOSTLY E OF THE I-79 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTRARY TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF STAGNANT WEATHER...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST MARCH ACROSS THE NATION...TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. WITH THE REALLY COLD AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA...WE JUST LOOK FOR NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THESE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THE SYSTEM IN PROGRESS TUESDAY LIFTS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS DURING TUESDAY. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE SEEN IN THE MODELS...SO THE GFS IS USED FOR DETAILS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH INITIALLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...IT TAKES A WHILE FOR THE COLD AIR TO COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT...ALMOST A SECONDARY FRONT DEPICTED. SO MODELS CONTINUE POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY... FINALLY CHANGING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN DRYING THINGS OUT IN THE LOW LANDS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LINGERING MAINLY NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DRY UP AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...AGAIN WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. MODELS KEEP THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...SO LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER THERE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HORIZONTAL FLOW ALOFT. H850 FREEZING LINE LIES SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE MINUS 5C DEGREES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES IN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONAL AFTERNOONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS TN AND KY INTO WV...TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY MIX OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT..AS THEY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME TIMING IN THEIR QPF FIELDS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS TAKES THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WV...WHILE THE ECMWF TRAJECTORY IS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONGER FORCING WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF AT H500 THAN THE GFS AND CMC FOR SATURDAY. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WV...AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AD HPC GUIDANCE FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY 20Z TODAY UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. CLOUDS THICKEN WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ARRIVING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...FIRST REACHING HTS AND PKB AND PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWER INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...DO NOT FEEL IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MVFR IN THESE SHOWERS. IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS IN LOW CLOUDS AND -SHRA/BR...BUT NOT AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS KEEPING IT OUT OF EKN AND BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY SLIGHTLY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26

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