Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 200710
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016
Warm, very humid air today. Cold front Saturday night into
Sunday. Cool canadian high pressure then takes hold for the early
and middle part of next week. Cold front late in the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --At least one more day of hot and humid weather...before a cold
front approaches late tonight/early Sunday. Area in the warm
sector of low pressure that will move northeast into Canada
today...sweeping a cold front through the area...mainly on
Sunday...with frontal boundary progged to be near the Ohio River
at the end of the near term period. Showers and
thunderstorms...isolated in nature this afternoon in the
heating...increasing in coverage later tonight as cold front
approaches. Still looking at brief heavy downpours with any
storms...and storms that pop up this afternoon in heating will be
rather slow moving...until flow increases later on with approach
of front. With a lack of strong dynamics and timing of front...not
expecting severe weather at this time.
Sunday will start out with showers and thunderstorms...with
frontal boundary in vicinity of Ohio River...and plenty of low
cloud cover across the CWA...with gradual clearing occurring
across the north and west...more into the short term period as
drier air gradually filters in behind the front. With the expected
cloud cover/timing of front...kept overnight lows on the warm
side of guidance everywhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 am Saturday...
Other than the models slowing the cold front down just a bit as it
moves across the area Sunday...we do not look for much change in the
current forecast for this period. The cold front still exits the
mountains Sunday afternoon with showers and storms mostly ending
upon frontal passage...and even some sunshine returns Sunday
afternoon...especially in the west. As drier air moves in behind the
front Sunday...any initial cooling of temperatures under cloud cover
will recover somewhat in the afternoon as sunshine increases from
the west. Still...compared to Saturday...it will be cooler...with
highs around 80 degrees in the low lands. High pressure will settle
in Sunday night and slowly shift east of the area by Tuesday. This
will bring dry and cooler air for Monday. Despite abundant
sunshine...highs Monday will mainly be in the upper 70s for the low
lands. Even as the high pressure center shifts east of the area
Tuesday...with a warming trend back into the 80s...dry weather with
abundant sunshine will prevail.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 pm Friday...
High pressure brings a cooler, less humid reprieve for the first
half of the extended period, Wednesday. While low level moisture
may start to return northward on the backside of the exiting high
Wednesday, the weather will remain dry until Thursday, when
another cold front approaches from the west.
The onset of the precipitation looks to be a bit fuzzy at this
distance, with the chance gradually increasing Thursday and
Thursday night, a part of the forecast that will likely need fine
tuned with time. Friday carries the best chance for showers and
thunderstorms associated with this front, with the front itself
progged to cross Friday night.
Temperatures were close to a blend of the MEX, blended and central
guidance with no major changes.
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...
Still a question of valley fog versus stratus overnight tonight.
Looking like LIFR stratus is starting to develop across the higher
terrain...and this may affect sites such as kbkw and possibly
kekn. Elsewhere...still expecting fog to initially form...followed
by stratus deck that raises visibilities...but creates widespread
mvfr conditions. Confidence is low.
Generally expecting conditions to improve to VFR after
14-16Z...with light southwesterly surface winds. In addition...sct
showers and thunderstorms will develop...generally from west to
east...mainly after 18Z as a cold front approaches the region...with
widespread mvfr and ifr cigs developing after 02Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Stratus may or may not form, effecting density
of the fog overnight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 08/20/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H M H M
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M L L M M M H M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H L L M M M M M M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M L L L L M M H M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M L M H M M M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR stratus possible Sunday morning...with fog possible most
mornings early next week.