-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
004
FXUS61 KRLX 242346
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
746 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues through the end of the workweek for
much of the area, but the chance for mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms slowly increases.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

 * Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories continue in effect
   across the lowlands and southern and lower mountainous terrain
   for heat indices in the 100s Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue with hot
afternoons and muggy night through Wednesday. Clear skies, abundant
low level moisture and near calm flow will allow for dense fog to
develop mainly along river valleys tonight.

The combination of heat and humidity will produce heat index values
as high as 109 degrees across portions of the lowlands Wednesday
afternoon. These values may cause heat illnesses. Consecutive days
of excessive heat and humidity can be especially hazardous as warm
overnight temperatures will provide little relief.

It will be mostly dry for most of the area tonight into Wednesday
morning. A cold front approaches from the north, to stall just
north of the area Wednesday night. Meanwhile, abundant moisture,
the heat and the vicinity of the frontal boundary will serve as a
focus for mainly afternoon and evening convection on Wednesday. The
lack of upper level support and of deep layered shear suggest
convection will be isolated and disorganized. Allowed central
guidance to code chance PoPs across the north and eastern mountains,
and slight chance elsewhere. SPC has us in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms across the northern portions of SE OH, northern
WV and eastern mountains of WV for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

Similar environment continues in place for Thursday and Friday with
instability building during the afternoon and evening, providing
diurnal showers and thunderstorm chances through the end of the week.

Allowed guidance to populate likely PoPs both Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons and evenings as convection will be driven by
afternoon heating.

Hot temperatures and high humidity values will allow for heat
index values to reach the 100 mark Wednesday and Thursday across
the lowlands. Heat Advisories may be required.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

Guidance suggests an upper level shortwave within the dome of high pressure
arriving to our area Saturday night. This feature could bring an increase in
showers or storms activity Saturday night into Sunday.

It will still be hot this weekend, with afternoon temperatures reaching
the lower to mid 90s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 80s
higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 746 PM Tuesday...

Radar activity this evening shows a few diurnally driven storms
across various spots of the Central Appalachians and Ohio
Valley. These storms will remain fairly stationary and pose no
concern to any TAF site at the time of writing. Once the sun
sets, convection will diminish and mostly quiet weather will
resume under high pressure.

Clear skies and light winds at the surface and into the lower
levels of the atmosphere will once again impose a decent
signature for river valley fog late tonight into Wednesday
morning. IFR/MVFR and locally dense LIFR conditions were
included at most airfields overnight, then quickly eroding after
daybreak.

The surface high pressure will slowly lose influence over the
area for the second half of the week, inviting better
opportunities for afternoon and evening showers and storms
beginning on Wednesday. However, confidence was not quite yet
high enough to include with the latest TAF issuance. VFR
conditions will therefore round out the most recent forecast
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may form earlier and/or be worse than
forecast again late tonight into Wednesday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Periods of IFR visibility possible under heavier showers or
storms Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Forecast and Record High Temperatures:

June 24:
KCRW: 96    96/1929
KHTS: 98   105/1930
KCKB: 95    97/1923
KPKB: 97    96/1930
KBKW: 92    90/1949
KEKN: 93    90/1949

June 25:
KCRW: 95   103/1930
KHTS: 97   101/1921
KCKB: 94    96/1930
KPKB: 95   100/1988
KBKW: 90    91/1914
KEKN: 92    92/1914

June 26:
KCRW: 93    99/1934
KHTS: 94    99/1954
KCKB: 91    96/1930
KPKB: 92    97/1952
KBKW: 88    93/1934
KEKN: 88    90/2005

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ024-025-032>034-
     039-040-515-517-519.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>031.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ066-067-083-084.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ101-102-105.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ103.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MEK

CLIMATE...TRM/JZ