National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 020753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
237 AM EST MON DEC 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED VERY NEAR A DAY TO CMH TO CLE LINE
AS OF 06Z. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF SE OH BEFORE
BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY TODAY AND FINALLY BECOMING A WARM FRONT AS
IT LIFTS BACK NO TONIGHT. QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN A THIN LAYER
H85 TO H8 WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT MAY PROVIDE FOR A FEW SPITS AND
SPATS ON RADAR PREDAWN. MUCH OF THIS WOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING
THE GROUND EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE ABOVE 3500 FT IS POSSIBLE.
TRANSITIONED AWAY FROM DRIZZLE AFTER 12Z TO SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA AS
ONE OF TWO S/W TROFS ROTATE THROUGH. THE SECOND POISED TO CROSS
THIS EVENING BUT AGAIN HELD POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE. EXPECT A NEARLY
SOLID OVC DECK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP
ACROSS THE S LATE TONIGHT AS SW FLOW KICKS IN AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE.

FOR TEMPS...MET MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD.
LIKE LAMP/MAV MOS/INHERITED FCST NUMBERS WHICH PUTS UPPER 40S FOR
MOST WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT SIMILAR NUMBERS AS BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY AMID
AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR THE TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ALONG IT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
CANADIAN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH HOWEVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE THIS PERIOD IS AMPLIFYING MID-CONUS L/W TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE GFS HAS WON THE BATTLE AT LEAST IN TERMS OF FLATTENING THE RIDGE
QUICKER ON WED...ALLOWING FOR THE START OF THE SHOWER POSSIBILITY AT
LEAST IN THE W AT THE START OF THE PERIOD /00Z THU/.  THIS FASTER
TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF AND THEN THE CMC...AND FINALLY THE UKMET
HOLDING UP THE REAR.  THE GFS HAS THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z
FRI...WITH MOST OF THE NCEP CHAIN HAVING IT THROUGH BY 12Z FRI...THE
UKMET NOT PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL NEAR 00Z SAT.  THIS FCST
LARGELY FOLLOWS WPC THINKING...WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z
FRI.

ENTERTAINED MOVING THUNDER CHANCE BACK TO WED NT / THU MORNING GIVEN
THE FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND
DOUBT AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OPTED
TO NIX THE CHANCE ALTOGETHER FOR NOW.

HAVE HIGHEST POPS...HIGH LIKELIES...LATE THU INTO FRI...AS FRONT
CROSSES AND THEN ONE OR TWO WAVES MOVE UP ALONG IT.  THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE MID-CONUS
L/W MAKES LITTLE EWD PROGRESS UNTIL A CABOOSE KICKER S/W TROUGH
MOVES IT ALONG EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS A RESULT...HOW MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR IS ABLE TO MAKE IN ROADS TO START THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND
UPON HOW MUCH THE UPPER FLOW CAN FLATTEN. IN EITHER CASE...ANOTHER
WAVE IS LIKELY TO PUSH MOISTURE BACK OVER TOP OF THE COLD AIR LATE
IN THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS IN ADVANCE OF THE CABOOSE
KICKER S/W.

BLENDED IN ECMWFHIRES AND HPC FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALSO ADDING
IN ADJMEX TOWARD THE END TO REFLECT LESS COOLING THEN THE ECMWFHIRES
DEPICTS.  USED A SIMILAR BLEND FOR LOWS EXCEPT BIAS CORRECTED
VERSIONS EMPLOYED FOR THE ADJMEX AND ECMWFHIRES.  DID A RARE NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR DAY 7 NT AS MODELS INDICATE WARM AND WET BY 12Z
MON.  HOWEVER...THE NEW GFS SHOWS THE FCST AREA REMAINING ENTIRELY
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE WAVE...BUT STILL A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT
GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE GENTLY SLOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

VFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO TO THE
LOW END OF THE VFR RANGE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN. ALSO...SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY 09Z TO 13Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
OTHERWISE PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. SFC FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH WILL RETURN N
AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO INCREASE. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS MAY TEETER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OH AND THE WV MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 12/02/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
MOUNTAINS. IFR AGAIN POSSIBLE IN RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30