Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 142345
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
645 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017
Low pressure to the south tonight. Cold front late tonight into
Wednesday. Cool under northwesterly flow aloft Wednesday night
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 149 PM Tuesday...
Models show a wave moving south of the area overnight. Surface
temperatures should be warm enough for mainly rain. Some snow is
possible in the higher elevations, but with readings above freezing,
don`t expect any snow accumulation.
A cold front will also push down from the north late tonight into
Wednesday. Low level moisture is fairly thin and 850 mb temperatures
are marginal during the day, so don`t expect a typical upslope
situation during the daytime hours. Will just run some small pops in
the favorable areas.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Tuesday...
CAA Wednesday night amid a decent upslope trajectory will allow
for mountain snow showers to develop, most notably across the
northern mountains where 1 to 2 inches may accumulate.
Elsewhere, thinking more of a scattered flurry scenario. An
interesting scenario may present itself on Thursday courtesy of
a developing warm front along with energy diving along the back
side of the mean longwave trof. The American models are
consistent in developing light precip Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night across southeast OH and the northern half of WV.
This would tend to fall as wet snow/rain mix in the lower
elevations with all snow in the mountains. The non American
models are much less enthused for any precip during that time
frame. As such, have confined low pops to the mountains for now.
Friday will be the transition day to much warmer weather beyond
the short term. There may be some WAA clouds to contend with
which should provide for a decent temp gradient from SW to NE.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...
Upper level ridging will be building into the region for the
weekend and early next week. However, there is a fly in the
ointment and that is an upper level system coming out of TX as
the mean ridge builds over the Eastern CONUS. This will bring an
increasing clouds and the threat for a few showers Saturday
night...with clouds lingering on Sunday as the system pulls
east. This will tend to tamper the warmup but still looking at
above normal readings. The warmest stretch will be Monday and
perhaps Tuesday where most places surge through the 60s with
some lower 70s possible across NE KY and S WV on Monday.
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 640 PM Tuesday...
VFR for now. Increasing chances for MVFR overnight into Wed
morning. IFR conditions possible at KBKW and KEKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility could vary in the
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.
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