Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 081956 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 256 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Digging upper trough/cold front Saturday/Saturday night, and again early next week after a brief, modest warm up on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 PM Friday... Bulk of the activity today falls to the south and east of the forecast area with an expansive area of frontogenesis stretching from the lower Mississippi Valley to the mid Atlantic coast. Northwestward extent of the precipitation shield will be dictated by the sheared out vorticity maximum embedded in the 500hPa flow, which will encroach into the far eastern counties/mountains of the CWA into the tonight and early Saturday periods. Carry less than an inch type snowfall accumulations for these areas, and favored the non convective GFS for placement of the POPs. Upper wave digs into the Great Lakes, bringing the next round of snow, which falls largely in the short term forecast period. Setting up for a convective snowfall event with increasing 925-700hPa lapse rates in the 7-8C/km range by 00Z Sunday. This suggests a squall type nature, but again, this will ramp up more in the third period, where the bulk of the accumulations are expected. May warm advect briefly before the arrival of the cold front, so that warranted rain/snow mix in the grids during the afternoon for the lowlands in daytime temps reaching the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 AM Friday... Cold front over eastern half of the cwa will continue to move east and exit Sunday morning. Snow showers with and behind the front will persist, especially in the upslope areas of the eastern and northern mountains. Most areas should see a dusting to an inch in heavier showers with 2-4 inches in the upslope areas. Strong NW winds with 30-40mph gusts are possible, especially on the ridge tops. Vsbys will lower in blowing snow and wind chills will be close to advisory criteria. Front exits Sunday morning along with any left of snow showers or flurries. Weak ridging will take place During the day on Sunday and conditions will improve from west to east Sunday and Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 425 AM Friday... A brief warmup on southerly flow on Monday out ahead of the next clipper/cold front system moves through the area on Tuesday. Temperatures Monday will top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s. This warm up will be short lived however with the front and and upper trough moving through Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will bring the threat for more snow, with possibly the entire forecast area seeing some sort of accumulation. Models indicate that there is a potential for some snow squall activity with the front as it passes through. The active pattern continues through the week, with a brief break Wednesday before the next system pushes through on Thursday, Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures stay cold enough for more snow or a rain snow mix with this system. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 PM Friday... Thick cirrus shield to affect the terminals through the bulk of the forecast, but at this point, VFR will prevail with the exception at CRW hanging on to the MVFR stratocumulus for a couple more hours at this point. Beyond 18Z, expect snow showers to move in. Surface winds less than 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceiling erosion at CRW could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in snow showers Saturday late afternoon and night, mainly in the mountains at night, and then again Monday night through Tuesday, again mainly in the mountains. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...26

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