Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 120640 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A few lingering showers tonight and Thursday and cooler. High pressure builds in for Friday and lasts into the weekend. Another cold front Sunday afternoon or evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 720 PM Wednesday... Latest surface observations indicate a cold front was pushing across eastern portions of the area. Ahead of this front, scattered showers continued. Front and associated showers should continue to move east this evening. However, still believe there could be some isolated activity during the overnight behind the front. Dewpoints have fallen much faster than expected behind the front. The dewpoint at PKB appears to be an outlier...so do not feel it is representative of the airmass near that site. Have made some tweaks to the dewpoints to reflect this thinking. As of 240 PM Wednesday... Line of broken showers, no thunder yet, with modest gusts pushing eastward with the cold front. Showers largely end after 03Z, with only isolated activity expected during the overnight behind the front. Low level temperature gradients forecast to pass during the early overnight, so should see temperatures drop considerably lower than the mid and upper 60s from the last night. Surface pressure trough lingers over the mountains for Thursday, so will bring the POPs back up to chance during that time frame and extending into the short term forecast period. Moisture depth for these showers will be on the shallow side, so expect the activity to have difficulty maintaining itself. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 AM Thursday... A sfc ridge will extend from the Northeast states southwest into WV Friday providing light flow and dry conditions. A CAD event will result in very light rain or drizzle over the eastern mountains Friday and Friday night. In the lowlands, expect mostly clear skies with diurnal cu developing during the afternoon hours. High pressure will be in control of the weather conditions bringing mostly clear skies and weak flow Saturday. The pressure gradient tightens Saturday night increasing southeast flow, warm and moist air, ahead of an approaching cold front. Went with superblend guidance for temperatures through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 AM Thursday... Expect an increase in rain showers activity with isolated thunderstorms. Coded thunder for few hours over portions of southeast OH early Sunday night as we loose heating, resulting in scattered to numerous showers across the entire area ahead and along the cold front. Some post frontal upslope showers may linger across the northern mountains late Sunday night as strong CAA commences. Models show H850 temperatures around 4C. This will set the stage for true Autumn weather Monday and Tuesday, with highs/lows actually running a bit below normal both days. Areas of front will be possible over the higher elevations of northeast mountains Monday night and Tuesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 135 AM Thursday... Widespread MVFR and IFR cigs spreading into the area behind a cold front. These will generally scatter out/improve to VFR after 15Z, with mountains slower to clear. However, increasing southeasterly flow Thursday night, generally after 00Z, will lead to widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions/cigs once again across parts of the higher terrain, including at sites KBKW and KEKN. Elsewhere, fog is possible in river valleys in lowlands. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of dissipation of stratus may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/12/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H L M M L M H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M L H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M L L L M L PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H L L L H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H M L AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR in areas of fog or stratus again Friday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...JSH/26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.