Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 210535
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
135 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017
Cold front with showers and thunderstorms crossing the area.
Upper disturbance passes Tuesday night. High pressure Wednesday
night and Thursday. Warm front Friday. Cold front over the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1030 PM Monday...
Another PoP tweak due to shower/tstorm development over Ohio.
As of 820 PM Monday...
Updated PoPs and wind to better reflect radar trends and HRRR
guidance. Current batch of showers and thunderstorms moving
through the area is generally not causing any issues with precip
gages coming in at near a 1/2". A second band of showers is
developing over Ohio and looks to also cross tonight. Again, no
Zonal upper level flow quickly rushes impulses through the
region with on/off PoPs over the next 24 hours.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM Monday...
Tuesday morning finds a cold front at least half the way through
the forecast area, and an upper level wave moving off to the
east. The cold front slips southward, through the remainder of
the area, by Tuesday afternoon, taking any showers with it. Left
a small chance for thunder in the extreme south midday Tuesday,
just before the front moves through there.
Models show a flat wave moving across the area Tuesday Night,
bringing about a renewed chance for precipitation. Given the
sloping baroclinic zone on the north side of the front south of
the area, we are looking at mainly mid and upper level moisture
and hence light precipitation.
The colder air moving in behind the front may allow a
transition from rain to snow from north to south overnight
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with very light
accumulations possible in the mountains. Cloud temperatures
favoring crystal growth and dry air below the cloud base favor a
transition of any precipitation to snow during this time.
Strong high pressure featuring cold and very dry air dominates
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, as it passes north of the
Temperatures close to central guidance including a very cold
Thursday morning, about ten degrees below normal, for a hard
freeze for any agricultural interests.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM Monday...
Warm advection precipitation may scoot across northern portions
of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The retreating
cold air may hang on long enough for snow furthest east, across
The area breaks out into a warm sector Friday afternoon into
Saturday. A cold front approaches later Saturday and is likely
to cross later Saturday night or Sunday, ahead of which thunder
is possible. Low pressure approaching from the west on Monday
may lead to a continued or renewed chance for precipitation.
Have lows occurring early Thursday night as warm advection
develops overnight. Otherwise temperatures close to central
guidance, which is a little below the MEX over the weekend.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 130 AM Tuesday...
Still an area of moderate showers and isold -tsra across
southern Ohio and central WV, creating brief MVFR/IFR
conditions. These will largely move east of the higher terrain
by 09Z, with just areas of -shra lingering across the mountains
through 16-18Z, with areas of mvfr conditions.
Otherwise, gradual improvement to VFR expected, particularly
across lowland locations after 18Z. Mountains may hold onto MVFR
for much of the day.
Light surface winds during the period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of IFR conditions
tonight and Tuesday morning uncertain. Also, timing of
improvement to VFR conditions uncertain.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 03/21/17
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H M M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H M L M H L L M H L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H M M M H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L L M M M M M L
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday.
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