Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230541 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 141 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid weekend. Weak disturbance dropping through today. Front stalls in Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Still have some mid to high clouds across the southern half of the CWA, however no radar echos with this and have removed POPs for the remainder of the overnight hours. Weak ripple aloft may kick off an isolated thundershower this afternoon, but expect this to me more miss than hit. These should come to an end late evening, with just some clouds lingering overnight. Afternoon temperatures expected to top 90 degrees across much of the lowlands today. Combined with dewpoints in the low 70s, heat indices will climb above 100 degrees. No changes planned to ongoing heat advisory. CKB area is not included...and by blending in ECMWF MOS to previous forecast, still coming up just short of advisory criteria there. Regardless, a good day to take water/shade breaks if spending time outside.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Models have backed off a bit from any debris clouds to contend with on Sunday. Not fully sold on this and continued with some low pops but allowed for temps similar to Saturday with the potential for another heat advisory issuance. A weak cold front along with an elongating s/w trof will approach on Monday with convection chances increasing across the area. As this features approach...the upper ridge will flatten as the overall pattern turns more zonal with generally weak flow through the atmosphere. As such expect the unsettled wx to continue overnight until waning some late. Torrential downpours with the potential for a bit of training will have to be monitored for localized flooding concerns but it would take over 2 inches in an hour to cause issues. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... With the front meandering thru at least the S zones Tuesday...have kept some higher pops for the afternoon and evening hours. The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. This front dissolves on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains. Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels midweek...likely ending the heat wave over portions of the area Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Dense river valley fog forming early this morning. With dew points around 70, always a bit unsure if fog will form. However with obs already showing it, sided with LAMP which is heavy on the fog. Fog will clear 12Z-14Z. Cannot rule out an isolated thundershower this afternoon, but not enough coverage to include in TAFs at this point. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/23/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L L H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L L H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M L L L L L L L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L L H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L M M H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>029. OH...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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