Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222041 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 340 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY. CLIPPER/TURNING COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL...MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD. STILL HOLDING ONTO A CHANCE OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL...CALM NIGHT ON TAP...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CREATING WINTRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL LOOKING LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL START ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY...SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...AND LOOKING LIKE MOSTLY RAIN IN THE FRIDAY PERIOD...EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET...WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET OR SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THEY HAVE ALSO SHIFTED THE DRY SLOT A BIT WEST. TRIED TO INCORPORATE A HINT OF THIS DRY SLOT MAKING IT INTO EASTERN ZONES...BUT STILL KEEP POPS AT AND ABOVE 50 WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF DRY SLOT. DID INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SOME AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT ONLY LITTLE CHANGES MADE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. BEST CHANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WILL AS EVERYTHING PULLS OUT. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ONLY LITTLE CHANGES TO SNOW IN LOWLANDS. THIS HAS US GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILE...DRY SLOT POSITION AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO AS IS. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY...WITH MORE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THIS IS QUICKLY PUSHED OUT WITH LITTLE TO NO LINGERING NW FLOW UPSLOPE AS CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE TREND THAT WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY REMAINS...THE CLIPPER COMING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AT A HIGHER LATITUDE REMAINS. AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT SLOWER BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. POPS INCREASE NW TO SE DURING SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER PASSING OUR LONGITUDE. WE WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS MOISTURE THINS...850 TEMPS BECOME COLDER...SO HELD ONTO SOME FLAKES EVEN INTO TUESDAY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. STILL DRY ON WEDNESDAY. WARMING 850 TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NEXT WESTERN FRONT LONG ABOUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS...WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2500 FEET. ISOLD -SHSN ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 23Z...INCLUDING AT KEKN. OTHERWISE...GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER LONGER...THROUGH AROUND 12Z. AFTER 18Z...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR CIGS TO VFR MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...SL

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