Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 172334 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 734 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front this evening. Cold front late tonight into Saturday. Disturbance Saturday into Saturday night. Another system Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 725 PM Friday... Continue to see some thunderstorms across the southern CWA -- these are associated with a wave of low pressure and secondary warm front that appears to have become somewhat disconnected from the overall synoptic pattern and is trapped over the Coal Fields. The HRRR shows this feature transitioning into the mountains over the next 3-5 hours, and eventually getting kicked out by the cold front currently moving into NW Indiana. Obs across the forecast area show all precip has changed over to rain... except some small hail in the thunderstorms. Precip should remain mostly rain through the night, with the best chance of some snow continuing to mix in across the northern mountains. As of 220 PM Friday... Areas that got the precipitation early today had an effect on thwarting the progress of the temperatures as wet bulbing largely held the western half of the CWA just above freezing. The wet bulbing itself has also been responsible for these zones to hang on to snow well into this afternoon. Area cameras showing none of it is sticking except on some grassy areas. Mountains are also expected to have a difficult time finishing their path above freezing, and if they do go, they should remain just above. Therefore, carry snow there tonight with minor accumulations on the highest ridge tops. Expect the precipitation to be relegated to the mountains by 06Z or so and frontal passage around 12Z. Cold advection aloft brings chances back quickly during the day Saturday, but keep the chances lower in the lowlands with temperatures continuing a slow improvement. Snow will begin to pick up again over the highlands heading into the short term period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday... A disturbance will move across the area Saturday and Saturday night. With boundary layer temperatures marginal in the lower elevations, most of the precipitation is expected to be in the form of a cold rain. Higher elevations of the mountains however, could see several inches of snow. Some upslope will continue into Sunday before tapering off. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday... Models are showing a lot of differences with timing of a system arriving on Monday. These differences continue with the timing of a cold front either Monday night or Tuesday. Depending on the strength of the cold air behind this system, may or may not see some upslope snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. Seesaw pattern continues on Thursday night as another warm front arrives. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 725 PM Friday... Very messy aviation forecast tonight as a cold front with a wave along it pushes through. Expecting a lot of IFR to LIFR in showers initially, but then transitioning to low stratus/fog as the showers decrease in coverage late tonight and relative humidity levels stay very high. However, upper level low moves in early Saturday, which should bring increased precip coverage again, lingering through the day. Tried to pinpoint some drier periods but still included VCSH due to low confidence in overall progression. Wind will be quite variable due to the surface wave moving through. Overall, there should be a trend towards SW winds, becoming tonight then becoming NW behind the cold front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR and MVFR timing may vary at times from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H L M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H M L M L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M L M M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L H M H H M L L L AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR also possible Saturday night into Sunday morning, in snow showers in the mountains, and in low clouds throughout the area.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...MZ/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MZ

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