Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 130559 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 151 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. NEXT FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AFTERNOON CU FIELD NOW FALLING APART AS THE SUN SETS. LOOKING LIKE A RATHER QUIET NIGHT WEATHER WISE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED TODAY PREVENTING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS FOG FORMATION. SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND A MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM DECOUPLING ALL THE WAY. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE THEM PICK UP RATHER QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AS BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS MIX DOWN THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SOME CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL FILTER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...THERE SHOULD EASILY BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BRING LOWLAND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NAM APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST. HOURLY POPS WERE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF TIMING...SO ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY. OTHER THAN HIGHS ON MONDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS NUMBERS...AND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. NEW MET/MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS MONDAY WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NUMBERS. HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST NUMBERS UP TO REFLECT THIS TREND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY QUIET REST OF THE WORK WEEK WX WISE. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING WELL BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORE ROBUST WARMUP OCCURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND WAA COMMENCES ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BECOME EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY REGARDING INBOUND TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO WPC AND GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS AT THIS DISTANCE. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY... COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AT 06Z MONDAY. MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY 15Z UPON MIXING THRU HEATING...SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT AROUND 00Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS THRU 06Z...THEN CEILINGS AOA 8000 FEET RAPIDLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU 12Z. NO PRECIP. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 04/13/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/30/JR NEAR TERM...JR SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JMV

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