Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200810 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 410 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level impulse brings some showers, perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm, today. Weak high pressure builds late week through the weekend. Cold front approaches by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... An upper level disturbance is driving showers across the Ohio River Valley early this morning. This feature will gradually move east today, with isolated to scattered showers possible across the entire forecast area. Also expecting some rumbles of thunder, but with no surface help convection is fully reliant on upper forcing. So other than brief downpours in a 1.5 inch precipitable water environment, no impactful thunderstorms expected. Any showers and storms should taper off after sunset tonight. Temperatures will continue to run a couple degrees above normal for both highs and lows. Blended in ECMWF MOS with only minor changes to previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Diurnal heating and orographic effects could produce isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms over the central and southern mountains Thursday into Thursday evening. Drier conditions expected Friday and Saturday as drier air moves in. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for this time of year, with foggy mornings continuing. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... High pressure with very relaxed pressure gradient will prevail this weekend into the beginning of the new week. A cold front will approach the area from the west by mid week to bring isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms. With very light sfc winds, mostly clear skies and available low level moisture will continue to produce foggy conditions in river valleys. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... Difficult forecast through early this morning with a mix of clouds and fog. Have all valley sites eventually getting into some IFR fog, however confidence is rather low on this due to the clouds. Obs may bounce around quite a bit. Any fog will dissipate 12Z-14Z with generally VFR expected today. Will have some isolated to scattered showers around, so could get brief restrictions if these pass over a TAF site. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low this morning then high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary this morning. May need amendments to add MVFR to IFR in showers or storms this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L M H H H H L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H M M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.