Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281807 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 207 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH ON WENDESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK. USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN. CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L M L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...KMC

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