Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270655 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 155 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 915 PM SUNDAY... Only minor tweaks to the forecast this evening. AS OF 521 PM SUNDAY... SLOWED SKY COVER ARRIVAL A BIT THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS EXPECTED TO GO CALM, SHOULD HAVE SEVERAL GOOD HOURS OF RADIATIVE COOLING. WILL LOWER VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN, A SERIES OF H500 SHORT WAVES NOTICEABLE IN VORTICITY FIELD, WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THESE FEATURES COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S LOWLANDS, INTO THE MID 20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. USED THE BLEND OF MODELS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY... WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE UNDER DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING ANOMALOUS PWATS OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE AND CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GROWING. WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THIS PAST SATURDAY, BUT CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS FRONT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS INSTEAD OF OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND EVEN IF THERE IS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, CAPE VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD YIELDS AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILE WITH CURRENT GFS INDICATING 60 TO 70 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE MODEST INSTABILITY COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE FORECAST DETAILS UNFOLD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTS, BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY... FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND MOST OF THE AREA HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS, WITH NORTHERN AREAS AND THE MOUNTAINS BEING MOST LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z Monday thru 06Z Tuesday... As of 120 AM Monday... An upper level disturbance will lift a weak warm front northward across the area today, with winds becoming southerly 3 to 8 KTS. Today...This disturbance and warm front will bring widespread clouds today, and a chance of a light rain shower across the north. However, the low levels are quite dry when this disturbance and warm front move across, thus, VFR ceilings 4000-10000 feet and VSBY AOA 7SM will generally prevail. The exception may be over southeast Ohio and northern WV where brief periods of MVFR are possible in scattered light showers. Tonight...As one disturbance lifts north of the area early, another will approach toward the end of the period, with a low chance of a shower in the west by 06Z. In any case, expect VFR conditions and light south winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers are not included in the TAFs due to chances of precipitation being below 50 percent. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 02/27/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JMV

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