Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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161 FXUS61 KRLX 311004 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 604 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6 AM Update. No changes. Previous discussion... Essentially a quiet period. Models are quite agreeable on the mass fields. Northern stream short wave passing well north across southeastern Canada will serve to reinforce surface high pressure ridging down from eastern Canada through the area...with a weak northeast to eventually east low level flow. Outside of the east facing slopes of the WV mountains...general subsidence under upper ridging will tend to dissipate advancing thicker higher clouds out west and keep abundant sunshine. This will lead to warmer temperatures well into the 80s...as models show warmer temps aloft under the upper ridging. The east facing slopes will be the real challenge today...as low level moisture and clouds currently lay east of the Appalachians. With an increasing easterly component to the low level flow later today...the moisture and clouds will tend to advect westward. With the aid of weak upslope...we look for clouds to increase this afternoon there. However...the NAM model is the typical outlier model with over forecasting moisture and instability under upper ridging...leading to significant convection along the eastern slopes of our mountain counties. Will go conservative for now with just a slight chance of afternoon showers there...with no mention of thunder as moisture depth is rather shallow and instability weak. For tonight.....will kill any mountain convection early with loss of day time heating...but keep clouds as low level flow becomes more easterly. Outside of our east facing mountain slopes...lack of clouds and night time river valley fog is again expected. Lows tonight pretty close to normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper level heights begin to fall Wednesday with the approach of an amplifying trof into the Great Lakes. Still keeping most areas dry on Wednesday except for some mountain diurnal convection. The trof...however...looks to lift out on Thursday...essentially slowing down the surface front a bit until a s/w trof within the mean trof helps to push things south a bit on Friday. As such have likely pops Thursday...gradually lowering from NW to SE Thursday night into Friday morning with hopefully a dry afternoon Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak upper level ridge moves in Friday evening helping to dry things out before another upper level wave begins to move into the area for Sunday for another round of showers and thunderstorms. Troughy pattern should keep lingering showers around...and temperatures may be quite cool up in the mountains. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 12Z Tuesday thru 12Z Wednesday... High pressure dominates. Near calm winds becoming light northeasterly by 15z...and again near calm to light easterly tonight. Til 13z...Locally dense river valley fog...otherwise VFR mostly clear. After 13Z...VFR with a few afternoon stratocu. For the east facing slopes including BKW...becoming sct-bkn 3500-4500 feet agl mainly after 20z. After 00z...These conditions will continue thru 12z Wednesday... except after 06Z generally MVFR river valley fog...and IFR fog at EKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... River valley IFR fog possible early Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/30 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JMV

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