-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
954
FXUS61 KRLX 301244
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
844 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Primarily diurnally driven convection through today. Cold
frontal passage Tuesday with strong to severe storms. Drier
airmass settles in for the rest of the week and holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 845 AM Monday...

No changes necessary.

As of 115 AM Monday...

With good instability this afternoon and weak shear much of the
activity will be confined to the afternoon with slow moving
storms and shower activity. These storms could produce heavy
downpours with PWATs nearly 2 inches and a moist column along
with sufficient DCAPE, so there could be some isolated
instances of localized flooding issues.

We are in an marginal for excessive rainfall outlook as well as
a marginal for severe storms. Some storms that do develop in
the afternoon could be strong to severe with the main threats
damaging wind and heavy downpours.

By late afternoon instability drops off and so does chances for
shower and thunderstorms. The morning should be fairly quiet
although we can have some isolated showers and a possibly storm
or two. The severe weather threat will be during the afternoon.

Chances of shower and storm activity will go into the evening
and at night due to possible activity ahead of the cold front
shifting into our region which is forecast to pass through in
the next period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Monday...

The month of July opens up in the midst of a cold frontal
passage marching in from the west. This feature will help
promote widespread rain along and out ahead of the boundary by
late Tuesday morning and gradually making a departure to the
south and east through the course of the evening. An uptick in
instability arises during peak heating hours as the front sails
overhead, which could yield scattered strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms. A weak low level jet focused along the
front may aid in supporting localized damaging wind gusts within
mature storms with enough steering flow to propel activity
northeastward and mitigate widespread flooding concerns.
However, localized heavy downpours and repetitive storms could
lead to some trouble spots ahead of the frontal passage.

Precipitation concludes along the higher terrain overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the front completes its
passage through the forecast area. The rest of Wednesday will
then feature mostly drier weather, outside of a rogue shower
still loitering over the mountains, clearing skies, and near
seasonable temperatures for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 AM Monday...

Surface high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley will
support dry weather for the metro valleys and southward on
Thursday, while some light chances for rain sneaks back into our
northern territories. This will be in response to a frontal
boundary sinking down from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley,
tapping into diurnal heating to stir up a few isolated storms
across southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia.

Stretching into the Independence Day holiday, a mostly dry
forecast triumphs over the Central Appalachians due to high
pressure anchored overhead. A rise in temperatures will also
make a return to the lower elevations, with many spots in the
Tri-State area teetering over the 90 degree mark by Friday
afternoon. Much of the same is anticipated over the weekend, if
not even hotter, as a dome of upper level ridging settles over
the eastern half of the country.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 620 AM Monday...

Some valley fog may spill into a few sites and be there for the
next few hours. Thereafter, VIS restriction go away and the
sites open up to VFR conditions going into the afternoon.

Lower clouds make an appearance by this afternoon but should
stay scattered in nature along with possible shower or storm
activity. VIS restrictions could come to fruition under heavier
shower activity. By late afternoon or early evening the storm
threat will diminish, however shower activity will be left on
the table into the nighttime with MVFR CIGs prevailing as
activity will likely persist ahead of a cold front forecast to
pass through on Tuesday.

Cloudy skies by mid to high clouds will be likely throughout
the period and shower activity will be high during the afternoon
and evening. Winds will be weak in nature and storms and
showers will likely move somewhat slow. Winds will be out of
the southwest, therefore any activity will likely track
northeast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorm activity may vary
from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 06/30/25
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms through Tuesday and
in morning fog Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...SL/JZ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JZ