Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 180236 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 936 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak system brings spotty light precipitation this evening, lingering into Monday. Cold fronts cross Tuesday and again Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 930 PM Sunday... No significant changes made. As of 1245 PM Sunday... A dampening wave will move across the region this afternoon and evening. While some light precipitation is expected, most of the moisture will be used trying to wet the lower levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, precipitation amounts will remain on the lighter side. Models showing a stratus deck moving in behind the system overnight, with some drizzle possible. Models differ considerably on the handling of this deck on Monday, with some maintaining the stratus deck for much of the area and other raising the deck. Will lean toward the higher resolution models which are maintaining the deck for most of the area and keeping drizzle a possibility.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Sunday... Weak lift and saturday low levels will allow areas of drizzle to linger Monday night across the area, and perhaps into Tuesday morning across northern counties. Attention then turns to a southern system that looks to pass close enough for some rain Wednesday across southwest VA and southern WV. Temps will moderate through the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Superblend guidance was generally followed in the extended with trend to delay any significant cold air into the area until the following week. There remains uncertainty on how much of a push the cold front gets this weekend, regardless Saturday looks wet. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 630 PM Sunday... Cloud deck beginning to lower from south to north as low level dry air is squeezed out. Expect MVFR ceilings and patchy drizzle to develop late this evening, and linger through much of Monday. Some guidance showing stratus could lower into IFR range late tonight and Monday. Did include this at CKB and BKW, but may become more widespread. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May get lower visibilities in fog and/or drizzle tonight. May have more widespread IFR ceilings Monday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 12/18/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H L M H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L M M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR in stratus possibly lingering Monday night into Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.