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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 021830
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
111 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
THIN CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DOMINATE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...VFR
BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN
AND FOG AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...MANLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ON MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV