Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261833 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 233 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front crosses the region on Thursday. Weak warm front move through this weekend. Stronger cold front Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 220 PM Wednesday... Cold front approaches from the west tomorrow morning. Strong thunderstorms will be possible with this front, but the risk for strong storms will be greatest east of the Ohio River. Across the Western CWA it appears that clouds and showers out ahead of the front will limit daytime heating there and thus lower instability will be the result. Further east however, we will likely see clouds and convection hold off until early afternoon. Highest dew points will be well to our south, but low 60s dew points across Central West Virginia will be possible by early afternoon. Forecast soundings are showing some modest CAPE at about 1000 J/Kg and fairly strong 0-6 km bulk shear out ahead of the front upwards of 50 knots. With the strong wind profiles, the main severe threat will be damaging winds, but this will likely be an isolated threat as the limited moisture/instability should keep most of the storms below severe limits. Severe hail will be less likely, but certainly not out of the question with the strong shear even with limited instability. Showers and storms will be through most of the area by late afternoon to early tomorrow evening, but we may see a few storms linger in the NE Mountain Counties of West Virginia through 00Z Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Thunderstorms will develop on Thursday as an upper level trough and surface cold front move into the region. Overall, strong thunderstorm threat looking a little better, with strong winds being the primary hazard as strong 60+kt 0-6km shear and moderate cape develops across the region. SPC has placed the western 2/3 of the cwa in a marginal risk for severe on Thursday. In addition, heavy downpours will also be a possibility with any thunderstorms, but moisture feed at this point doesnt look to be quite as impressive as in previous model runs. Cold Frontal boundary exits to the east of the CWA Thursday night, with drier, and warm weather taking hold for Friday as the frontal boundary gradually lifts back north as a warm front. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Focus this weekend shifts to a developing and strengthening low pressure system across the Southern Plains. Warm frontal boundary across Ohio at the start of the period, with showers and thunderstorms developing, some of which could be heavy at times. Strong low pressure system will gradually move north and east into the midwest Sunday into Monday, gradually sweeping a cold front across the area on Monday. Strong moisture transport into the area with PW values rising to 1.2 inches or greater, well above normal, particularly for this time of year. In addition, it will be rather hot and humid for this time of year, with dew points rising into the 60s, and max temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for much of the lowlands. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Wednesday... Should see VFR conditions through at least the first 12 hours of the TAF period. However, at EKN, with the clear skies, low level moisture and weaker winds near the boundary layer, there will be a chance for some fog through the early morning hours. After 12Z Thursday a cold front approaches from the west and this front should arrive in time to bring scattered showers and storms into the Ohio Valley by noon. Still not very confident in coverage of the showers and storms tomorrow, so have left them out of HTS, PKB, and CRW for now. The showers and storms could have potential for MVFR or even brief IFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low early tomorrow morning at EKN, then medium to high late tomorrow morning into early afternoon. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may may not develop at EKN. Timing and coverage of showers and storms late tomorrow morning into early afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... MVFR to IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...MPK

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