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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 110239
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1033 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE
MONDAY...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HOPEFULLY THE LAST OF THE SMALL LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
IN EASTERN KANAWHA COUNTY.

SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY PEACEFUL LATE SUMMER NIGHT WITH A NEARLY FULL
MOON.

AREAS OF FOG STILL EXPECTED MAINLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND OUR 2
COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA.

STILL FIGURING ON A NICE MID SUMMER FRIDAY. BUT SOME OUR COUNTIES
ACTUALLY COULD USE THE RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SYSTEM THEN MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MODEL TIMING STILL VARIES WITH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. NAM
HAS A LOT LESS DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING MUCH MORE. NAM HAS
VARIED CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BUT WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS BRINGS A SYSTEM INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL THEN MOVE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ONGOING AROUND 00Z FRIDAY...CRW MAY BE HIT BY
ONE 00Z TO 01Z.

WILL HOLD ONTO SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TIL ABOUT 03Z IN MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN SLOPES.

ADDED A BIT MORE FOG AT HTS VCNTY SINCE LOCAL SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  ALSO HAD FOG A BIT SOONER OVERNIGHT AT CRW FIGURING
ON LOCAL RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING.

BY 13Z...VFR WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULUS AT 4 TO 6 THSD
FT AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
06Z THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 07/11/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. IFR IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB