Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 022345 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 730 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MORE STABLE AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. LATEST RUN OF THE MESO NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO USED A COMBINATION OF IT AND RADAR FOR THE UPDATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES. STILL IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME SE COMPONENT TO WHAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WE HAVE... WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. OTHERWISE MORE STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL INCLUDE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS. STILL KEPT DEW POINTS HIGHER THAN MOST MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. WAS A BIT SLOWER INCREASING POPS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM OUR EXTENDED FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AGO. ANOTHER FRONT COMING INTO AHEAD ON DAY 4/SATURDAY AND TRYING TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN. AS USUAL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVIATE ON THEIR RUN TO RUN FRONTAL SPEED. THE ECMWF HAD A FASTER TREND TODAY THAN YESTERDAY ON DRYING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. ALL IN ALL...THE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. SLOW DRYING TREND SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. MODELS SHOWING A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. IF THIS DECK DEVELOPS TOO LATE...THEN SOME FOG COULD BE COMBINED WITH THE STRATUS DECK. IF THIS DECK DOES NOT DEVELOP...EXPECT DENSE FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE FOG/STRATUS SITUATION IS LOW. CLOUDS/FOG WILL LIFT INTO A CUMULUS DECK ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LOW THROUGH MORNING...THEN HIGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. ONSET OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/03/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H L L L AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ015-024>026- 034>037. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...RPY

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