Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300001 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 801 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trof will keep the weather unsettled into early next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter interlude during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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745 PM UPDATE... Widely scattered shra/tsra will wane over the area as the evening progresses. Cant fully take pops out overnight with the subtle ripples in the flow traversing thru the region. In uptick in coverage may present itself after midnight across portions of SE OH and N WV. Otherwise...low stratus and fog will develop with areas that received rain taking the dive first. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Latest radar mosaic shows scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing across the region at this time. With continued heating...expect the areal coverage to continue to increase. Models indicate a trough axis will approach the forecast area from the west tonight and then remain in the area on Saturday. Several disturbances will move through the upper level flow, one this evening and another on Saturday. The disturbance this evening should result in some showers and storms overnight. However, expect the areal coverage to decrease with the loss of sunshine. with abundant low-level moisture in place, expect a repeat of last night with some stratus and valley fog developing. Expect conditions will slowly improve after sunrise with some sunshine possible by late morning. Another disturbance will combine with daytime heating and low- level moisture to result in the development of showers and storms by late morning on Saturday. The storms should become more numerous across northern and western portions of our forecast area and because of this, I have gone with likely pops in those areas. PW values still expected to be around two inches with each of these features. This moisture and light deep layer flow will continue to support locally heavy downpours. Because temperatures looked good, I did not make any significant changes.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Continued hot and humid Sunday and Monday...with frontal boundary continuing to hang out across northern zones. Weak disturbances in the well as daytime heating...will trigger rounds of showers and thunderstorms at times...but overall...coverage should be less than in recent days. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overall...drier to start next week...with high pressure...surface and aloft in control. Upper ridge strengthens across the area mid week...with increasing temperatures. Looking at generally diurnal showers and thunderstorms...mostly in the mountains...although a slight chance cannot be completely ruled out elsewhere. Frontal boundary approaches late in the extended...but at this point...lots of uncertainty in timing. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Widely scattered shra/tsra will gradually wane this evening over the area. However...models indicate a potential uptick over portions of SE OH and N WV after 06z. Otherwise IFR conditions in stratus/fog will develop this evening...first for any terminals that received KHTS/KBKW. Confidence in where fog and thus lower vsby prevails or stratus is not particularly high attm. Conditions gradually improve after sunrise...but VFR conditions may not be realized until 15z given the abundant low level moisture in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should once again develop after 16Z with resulting IFR or worse vsby restriction possible in any convection...however confidence not high on any terminal getting hit to include in TAF at this distance. Light southwest winds should become light and variable tonight and then become light southeast again by late morning. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The fog and low cloud forecast for overnight tonight depends upon higher clouds and precipitation. A thunderstorm may directly impact an airport with IFR conditions anytime through 18z Saturday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/30/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L L L AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions in low clouds and/or fog during the overnight into the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and thunderstorms mainly Monday afternoon and evening.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL NEAR TERM...JSH/30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.