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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 251108
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
708 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge crosses today and tonight. A strong cold
front will cross late Monday, setting us up with more autumn-like
temperatures for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 700 AM Sunday...

Forecast on track.

As of 430 AM Sunday...

High pressure northeast of the area slowly drifts farther away,
while an upper level ridge crosses this period. Low level flow
veering from east to southeast will brings stratus and light rain
or drizzle along the eastern slopes of the Central Appalachians,
but the tranquil weather with mainly clear sky will continue
elsewhere.

Temperatures were close to guidance so not much change needed, as
the slightly cooler weather introduced yesterday continues.
Temperatures continue to run above normal though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM Sunday...

Strong cold front will move through the region on Monday...exiting
to the east Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms...will develop
across the area on Monday...particularly across WV and southwest VA
based on frontal timing. There is the possibility that a few storms
could be strong to severe on Monday...as deep layer west-
southwesterly winds increase to 40+kts. SPC has placed much of WV
and SW VA counties in a marginal risk for Monday. Have added wording
to the HWO to mention the strong-dmg wind threat for Monday.

Frontal boundary will be to the east of the CWA Monday night...with
gradual clearing taking place behind the front. Remainder of the
short term period looks to be cool...as upper low/trough deepens
across the eastern U.S. There could be periods of cloud or
showers...particularly across the north at times before the low
finally moves off the coast by late week...but much of the time
should remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 PM Friday...

While the operational models are at least consistent with a stout
upper low bringing a cold front through in the short term portion
of the forecast, the evolution of the upper low beyond that in the
extended is where forecast spread comes into play. The ECMWF
continues to bring the upper low south into the central
Appalachians, with it oscillating around that general area
through the end of the week. The GFS brings a similar track to an
extent...but eventually has it become an open wave and exiting
our area by Friday. This makes the grids challenging because of a
GFS specific trough axis dropping in and creating more defined
areas of potential precipitation while the ECMWF will be more
involved with less specific forcing details. Crossing fingers for
increased model run consistency in the coming days to sharpen up
this part of the forecast. Will keep the cooler trend going
through the period regardless with low end POPs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 AM Sunday...

Fog and stratus over the eastern valleys of WV will burn off by
14Z this morning, although morning cu in the mountains may persist
much of the day once it this morning. It may break up this
evening, only to reform overnight tonight.

Out across the lowlands, a VFR day is expected once any early
morning fog is gone, and any valley fog should be mainly MVFR.

Light northeast surface flow will veer to light east to southeast
tonight. Light northwest flow aloft today will back to light
southwest tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of stratocu in the
mountians may vary. Fog formation and intensity may vary tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
Low stratus possible over the mountains Monday night. Morning
valley fog possible Tuesday through Thursday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM