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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 160737
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WINTER STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR UPDATES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  EXPECT HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO
BEGIN TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER OVER THE PLAINS...BUT TAILED BACK
SKY GRIDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY.  MODELS STILL INSIST THAT PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL 12Z OR AFTER CWA-WIDE...AND TEND TO AGREE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.  TWEAKED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.

NO CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.  ALL HEADLINES WILL REMAIN
AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODELS SHOW TONIGHTS SYSTEM PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. NAM
THEN DEVELOPS A SECOND WAVE AND PUSHES MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING IT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. WILL DISCOUNT THE NAM FOR NOW.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS A BIT. WILL GO WITH
THE GFS/CANADIAN COMBINATION FOR NOW SINCE THAT IS MOST CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND
SUPPORT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING A BRIEF WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATION REACHING THE LOWER 60S UNDER DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
MODELS SHOW SIGNS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER...EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT THEY
ARE CLOSING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT. LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN ECMWF
ENSEMBLES MEMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME SPREAD IS NOTICED
ON THE GFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE STILL SOME
CONSENSUS AMONG MOST OF ITS MEMBERS. PREFERRED THE GFS SLOWER
SOLUTION AS THE ECMWF SEEMS TO CATCH UP WITH IT.
THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

GENERALLY USED HPC GUIDANCE. TWEAKED DOWN TEMPS FRIDAY DAY 7 TO
COMPROMISE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NO ISSUES FOR THE FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THICKEN/LOWER TOWARDS
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE
SW VA AFTER 15Z...ALONG WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH BUT SPREADS MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY..WHILE COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL START AS RAIN...BUT QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW..ALTHOUGH
THE SW VA WILL HANG ON TO MAINLY RAIN THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST LOCATIONS...SAVE PKB AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO...THROUGH THAT TIME. IFR POSSIBLE IN SPOTS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE I-64 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL
MOTION/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE. AS THE LOW PASS OFF THE NC COAST
AFTER 06Z...THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL FLIP AROUND TO THE NE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:  MODERATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AND
ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 03/16/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO INTO MONDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR WVZ005>008-013>018-024>030-035>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30