Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 021830 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 111 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SE OH. CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY... THIN CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DOMINATE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...MANLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JMV

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