Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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102 FXUS61 KRLX 070905 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 405 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure visits today. A cold front crosses early Thursday morning, followed by much colder weather through Saturday. Next system crosses Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... WeaK high pressure starts to build into the area today, only to get cut off at the pass, as low level west to southwest gradient flow increases ahead of a cold front that approaches from the west tonight. Stratus/ stratocu beneath inversion was breaking up from the west, although this process was obscured by a higher mid deck in the mid and upper level southwest flow. While model soundings do not strongly support clearing early this morning, it could make farther progress at least into the low lands through daybreak. After sunup, the morning cu effect will likely cause the clouds to fill back in for a time, before mixing and the arrival of drier air bring clearing this afternoon. Higher clouds will lower and thicken tonight, as the cold front and associated upper level short wave trough approach. In coordination with neighbors, opted for a dry forecast tonight, given little inflow and marginal moisture ahead of the front, along with weak and transient forcing. Forecast does still reflect the slight chance for snowflakes reaching the ground across higher terrain from south to north toward dawn Thursday, from a dampening flat wave. Temperatures and dew points slightly higher this package from a blend of near term sources, reflecting a slow push of only slightly chillier and drier air in the wake of the weak cold front that crossed on Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... Colder air will infiltrate into the region on Thursday as an upper trough deepens across the area. Temperatures will remain either steady, or gradually fall as the day progresses on Thursday, with light snow showers developing later in the day Thursday and Thursday night, mainly across the higher terrain counties, with flurries elsewhere. Friday looks to be continued cold, along with additional light snow showers in favored upslope regions as a more favorable northwesterly flow takes hold. Still looking at light accumulations, generally an inch or two across the higher terrain, with little to no accumulations elsewhere. Snow showers will taper off later in the day Friday and Friday night, as flow becomes less favorable, and weak ridging takes hold over the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... Milder air to take hold over the weekend as weak upper ridging builds in response to approaching sw trough/low pressure system, which will spread light rain and snow showers back into the region by late Sunday. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 AM Wednesday... Stratus in the wake of the rain Tuesday will go IFR in the mountains at times overnight into Wednesday morning, but should lift out of IFR at CKB before dawn, with otherwise MVFR ceilings throughout the lowlands through Tuesday morning. The stratus will evolve into stratocu / morning cu that then lifts above 3 kft and breaks up Wednesday afternoon. As the next cold front approaches from the west Wednesday night, mid level clouds from the associated upper level short wave trough will overspread the area. This should be enough to keep fog from forming. West to northwest surface flow will be a bit gusty in the mountains overnight, and generally be enough, together with the stratus deck, be enough to keep fog from forming overnight. Surface flow will diminish on Wednesday, and be calm to light and variable Wednesday night. Moderate northwest flow aloft overnight will become light northwest on Wednesday, and then light west Wednesday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium into Wednesday morning, then high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR to IFR ceilings may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 12/07/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H L M L L M M M L L M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H M M M H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H M L L M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR in possible snow showers Thursday through Thursday night in the mountains, && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM/SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.