Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241004 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 602 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MODELS SHOWING A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...JUST SOME CLOUDS. WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. DUE TO THE WINDS...WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE IN THE PROTECTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...WILL SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF POPS SLIGHTLY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. SO...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY... BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END. HOWEVER...A SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...AND THEY LIMIT THE LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FAR NORTH FOR SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER. THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS WORKING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE GFS INDICATES THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY. WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MODELS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED WEATHER AND LATEST MOS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS WARMER FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE TWEAKED OUR TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS TREND. DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN TWEAKED OUR EXPECTED HIGHS UP. BUT I STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...DESPITE SOME VFR CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...PROVIDING SOME CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/24/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ008-010-011- 016>020-027>032. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/SL NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...RPY

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