Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261808 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 208 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. Northwest flow with several upper level disturbances next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 138 PM Friday... Combination of temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s... coupled with high humidity values...resulted in Heat Indices to exceed 100 degrees in a few locales. Latest models suggest there could be a few showers/storms this afternoon. However...the models are not consistent with the location where the storms may form. Current thinking is that High Pressure...at the surface and aloft...should preclude the development of storms and have kept POPs below 15. With the loss of sunshine...temperature should slowly fall and any diurnal clouds will dissipate. Believe river valley fog/mist will once again be possible. Any fog that does form should dissipate shortly after sunrise on Saturday. Previous forecast matches fairly well with latest models and have decided to keep slight chance POPs in the mountains for Saturday afternoon. Latest temperature guidance for lows tonight is fairly close and was followed. As far as high temperatures for Saturday...latest guidance is warmer than previous numbers and have bumped highs up a degree or so. Combination of these temperatures and continuing high humidity values suggest there may be a more widespread area of Heat Indices exceeding 100 degrees. There may be a need for a Heat Advisory for Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As 220 PM Friday... The area remains under an upper level ridge through Monday. There may be enough instability to pop a mainly afternoon shower/thunderstorm with best chances in the mountains.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As 220 PM Friday... On or about Tuesday, the upper level ridge that has been lingering over the region begins to flatten allowing a more zonal progression. By Thursday an upper level trough digs over the mid atlantic. With progressive flow, left at least a schc to chc PoPs most periods. Best chance for a fropa would probably be Wed evening though not much qpf with any of the weak fronts that cross the area.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 138 PM Friday... 18Z Friday through 18Z Saturday... VFR conditions are generally expected through 04z. Any clouds that form today will dissipate after sunset...with clear to mostly clear skies anticipated overnight. As previous forecast indicated...there is a continued relatively low confidence on extent of fog tonight. Because of this...have continued mention of mvfr river valley fog after 04z...with some favored valley locations seeing ifr conditions in dense fog. Any fog that forms should quickly dissipate after 12Z...with vfr conditions anticipated. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of dense fog is in question overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JW NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JSH

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