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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 081750
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1250 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORM SYSTEM
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --1230 PM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP
BY AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR MANY OF THE EASTERN ZONES...AS
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 50S FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV LOWLANDS. COLD FRONT STILL
ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH OF CANTON OH W/SW-WARD TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA.

930 AM UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW COSMETIC TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...BUT
OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CIRRUS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
THICKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FIRST SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING IN THE PERRY/MORGAN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LIFT/FORCING IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THINK THIS
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WITHOUT A LOT OF FANFARE IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION. SHOULD BE MAINLY A PAVEMENT-WETTER AND WILL ONLY
CARRY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THE FORECAST. IT IS FOR THIS
REASON THAT POPS ARE KEPT LOW...AS MEASURABLE RAIN ON AN HOUR BY
HOUR BASIS IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

FRONT WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES DOWN MODESTLY IN ITS WAKE...BUT
MAY GIVE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM A CHANCE A COUPLE OF FLAKES.
THE HIT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT MORE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
TERRITORY ON SUNDAY.

DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...STUCK WITH THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUIET AND MODERATING PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF OUR
AREA AND ALLOWS MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH...THAT AREA BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEMS PASSING NORTH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S SUNDAY...BUT REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S
BY TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT US MID WEEK.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MID WEEK...BUT
HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN AT GREAT ODDS ON THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERN SYSTEM
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE NEW EURO HAS NOT
ONLY JOINED THE OTHER MODELS IN NOT PHASING AND KEEPING THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...BUT IS ALSO
FLATTER AND FASTER PER OTHER MODELS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH AS IT DIGS ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. STILL...IT IS A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QUITE UNUSUAL IN THAT THESE LOWS
USUALLY FIND A WAY TO SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER...WE WILL SEE.
NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM CUTTING OFF DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FEEDING UP AHEAD OF THIS LOW...STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. AND RAIN IT WILL
BE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY...WITH QUITE MILD
AIR CONTINUING MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW WILL CHANGE THE RAIN
TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT SOME UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS
TIME...EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND DOMINATE INTO FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. WHILE NOT AN OVERLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER...THIS
FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE BRINGING IN MVFR CEILINGS
THAT MAY DROP BELOW THE 2KFT THRESHOLD...WITH BRIEF MVFR VISBYS IN
THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES.

CKB...EKN...AND BKW CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF THE WEST
TODAY DURING BEST MIXING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF
GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 15-20KTS.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BTWN 12Z-15Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT...WITH CIGS
POSSIBLY TAKING JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO BREAK UP OVER THE EASTERN
HIGH TERRAIN AS USUAL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY. BRIEF IFR IN A
HEAVIER SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...50

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