Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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083 FXUS61 KRLX 191455 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 948 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through the work week with another weak system Tuesday into Wednesday. A more organized system drifts this way for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 948 AM Sunday... With low clouds hanging around for much of the day, will lower high temperatures closer to LAMP and the lower MET MOS. As of 615 AM Sunday... Any lingering rain/drizzle will come to an end over the next several hours. However, stratus will remain in place through most of the morning. The clouds should scatter out through the afternoon. Only minimal changes made to temperature forecast through the period, with 50s and 60s today and upper 30s to low 40s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Not a whole lot of change from previous forecast. Still think most models are running precip in too fast, so tried to hold back on early PoPs on Tuesday. As of 300 PM Saturday... Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. I hedged toward the slower NAM given the stout upper ridge that will be in place ahead of this system. Still feel many southern areas hit or surpass 70 degrees Monday and possibly Tuesday, despite the abundance of high clouds. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... The very warm pattern continues through the week. Introduced thunder on Thu and Fri as moisture from a warm front begins to nose into the region from a much larger system headed through the Great Lakes region. This system`s cold front will move through our area on Saturday giving a sharp cool down and perhaps thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 615 AM Sunday... Surface wave passing by early this morning. Precip has mainly come to an end, however low stratus has developed with MVFR to IFR across the forecast area. Expecting the IFR to linger through around 15Z before lifting into MVFR then scattering out through the afternoon. Wind will generally be SW to W through the TAF period. Not really typical fog season, but with valley winds becoming calm tonight, and mostly clear skies, MVFR to IFR valley fog is possible tonight. Hit it hardest in the areas the got the most rain last night -- across the southern CWA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving ceilings may vary. Fog formation overnight rather uncertain. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M H M H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... Widespread IFR not expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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