Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250520 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 120 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 115 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATED...AS WE RESIDE IN THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. VAD WINDS AROUND 02Z BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MB LEVEL. SHOULD MAINTAIN A S AND SE BREEZING ON HILLTOPS AND RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. SOME VALLEYS IN WV AND SW VA HAVE STILL DECOUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AT 02Z. YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT THE WIND MIXING DOWN INTO SOME OF THOSE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...SINCE 925 MB MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH. FIGURING DISTURBANCE NEAR BNA AT 02Z WILL WEAKEN...MAY BE SOME MID DECK BY DAWN IN THE HTS TRI STATE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z. FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED DURING THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. .AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV NEAR TERM...KTB/SL SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...SL

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