Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 102135 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 435 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek bringing another arctic blast and ushering in a more unsettled pattern through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday... Clouds will be increasing tonight as mid and high level moisture advect into the area ahead of the next system. WAA will be increasing over the upper Ohio Valley on low level SW flow. Some good isentropic lift will develop as well, which will allow snow to overspread portions of the upper Ohio Valley. It still appears most of this will fall just north of the RLX CWA, perhaps clipping Perry/Morgan over to Clarksburg/Elkins later tonight. The consensus in the hi res models though keeps all of precip north of the CWA with the GFS/ECMWF showing QPF over the aforementioned areas. Given the amount of low level dry air in place...tend to favor keeping the precip north of the area but will leave a tight gradient of POPs across our northern fringe counties for some wiggle room. The best chance for any accumulations would across Perry/Morgan where a tenth or two is possible. This all pushes north Sunday morning with mainly a dry forecast for the daylight hours in broad SW flow aloft/SE flow at the surface. Expect some sunshine in the afternoon across SW VA and a good portion of WV. This along with downsloping should allow temps to approach 50 in the typical banana belt areas along US 119/I 79 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Saturday... The period starts with another front knocking on our doorstep. Continuing WAA will push H85 temps to near +10C ahead of this system, so predominantly a rain event for most areas. There will be a small window for brief frozen precip in/near the mountains from late Sunday evening into the pre-dawn hours Monday before too much warm air moves in aloft. Forecast soundings show low level thermal profiles favoring brief SN along the taller ridges with ZR possible in mountain valleys. While a light glaze of ice is possible, the changeover to rain should occur relatively quickly Monday morning with all rain across the area before dawn. Temperatures will remain cool but relatively mild compared to the previous several days and rain should end west-to-east late Monday into Tuesday with sfc high pressure building back in. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Saturday... Confidence remains low concerning overall pattern evolution for the long term. Regardless of spatial and temporal discontinuities in model guidance, it does appear that another arctic airmass will filter in by mid week. Multiple rounds of precipitation are also possible through the period with any waves embedded in the larger scale flow.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Saturday... Low level WAA is eradicating the MVFR stratocu this afternoon from south to north. CKB/EKN should improve to VFR around 21Z or so. VFR conditions for tonight amid increasing high and mid level clouds. The exception will be across portions of SE OH and N WV where cigs will lower in response to increasing isentropic lift which will allow snow to break out, sending conditions into IFR. Current thinking is this will stay just north of PKB/CKB/EKN, though cannot rule out a brief window for light snow but confidence too low to put any mention in those TAFS. SW flow aloft/SE surface increases on Sunday as any snow across the north shifts well north of the area. The result is VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium SE OH/N WV. High elsewhere. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Light snow tonight may sneak into northern TAF sites which would bring MVFR into play. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/DTC NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...DTC LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...30

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