Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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696 FXUS61 KRLX 260822 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 415 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbances aloft in an upper level ridging pattern. Slow moving convection possible Friday/Saturday. Southeast flow may eventually increase shower coverage late Sunday or Monday...especially over mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The center of the upper level ridge off the Atlantic Coast puts us on the periphery of that ridge...and prone to waves within the weak synoptic scale flow aloft. All in all...this is not much of a change from the previous is the fact there is very little in the way of surface forcing mechanisms. Still have very little in the way of flow in the lower well as surface based instability...although this may be slightly higher across the CWA given the slightly higher dewpoints expected. Dewpoints will push the mid 60s by the afternoon hours...but peak heating will once again be tempered somewhat by variable cloud cover. The end result is slight to low chance POPS with low confidence of thunder...although this was added to the showers for a few hours this afternoon. SPC day one outlook has the CWA well entrenched in the area of general change from the previous issuance in terms of our area. No severe weather expected in the near term. Temperatures continue to creep upwards...with only cosmetic changes to these for the most part for max temperatures today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Very weak flow on Friday...tries to increase just slightly on Saturday...with no fronts in sight. As a significant mid level disturbances to latch onto. Will try to have the higher pops Friday over the central mountains counties...and forming first...with the differential heating. As mentioned yesterday... can still picture convection over the southern mountains late afternoon trying to drift north into southern coal fields and toward Hts or Crw. So left chance pops over the southern lowlands well into the warm Friday evening. Localized/isolated downpours can occur under this slow moving convection on Friday afternoon and evening with precipitable water around 1.5 inches. Forecast model soundings showing more instability Saturday afternoon...while drier air aloft tries to move northwest into the mountain counties during Saturday afternoon and evening. So chance pops just as high in the western lowlands Saturday...when compared to mountains. Again...isolated downpours Saturday afternoon and evening...probably western lowlands. On Sunday we are still looking south and southeast. Disturbance along Carolina coast may increase moisture late Sunday into Monday and hold down temperatures...especially along eastern slopes. Temperature wise...forecast a few more 90 degree reading Friday afternoon if convection holds off until evening for the southern river valleys like Logan ...Louisa...Charleston...and Huntington. At this distance...with weak downslope winds west of the mountains... we did not lower maximum temperature forecast on Sunday in the western lowlands as much as...say the 00z Gfs mex guidance suggests. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Summer like weather will continue during the period as an upper level ridge remains over the area. Warm afternoons and cool nights will be the rule. There could be some convection Saturday night due to afternoon heating and juicy airmass. The upper level ridge hold until Sunday before drifting off the east coast. Continue with low chance for the remainder of the period especially during the afternoons. A developing tropical system approaches South Carolina by Tuesday morning. It is a little early to have high confidence on the track of this system. Will monitor the development and track of this tropical system. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Brief MVFR mist at some locations through 12Z...bouncing back quickly to VFR through the day. Showers possible after 12z...moving southwest to northeast through 22Z. No prevailing categories for this amendments may be needed in increasing coverage. Mist development after 04Z Friday is possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR in a shower is possible. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 05/26/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.