Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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751 FXUS61 KRLX 191922 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 222 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Active pattern returns with a warm front crossing Friday followed by a stronger system early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Thursday... Midlevel clouds and cirrus are arriving out ahead of a warm front this afternoon. Up north at Parkersburg through Clarksburg, the edge of the low level stratus is slowly inching northward, but with no sunshine so far today I had to pull back high temperatures in these areas to the upper 40s. They still have a chance to see some late afternoon sun, but overall temps will not warm too much from current values. Clouds will continue to increase ahead of an approaching warm front through the evening. Overall, I just tweaked the timing for the arrival of rainfall just a bit later from the previous forecast. Rainfall will be light with widespread QPF amounts of a quarter to a third of an inch. Rainfall will end from south to north starting tomorrow morning, but the Northern Mountains will likely see light rain continue well into the afternoon. After the warm front passes we will warm up well into the 60s tomorrow across a large portion of the forecast area. Depending on the amount of clearing tomorrow, some areas will likely climb into the upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Thursday... Warm front lifts north on Friday for another round of precipitation with 0.25" of QPF expected and temperatures still remaining well above normal. In between systems Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 235 AM Thursday... Deepening 979 mb low approaches from the south on Sunday night with its trajectory just to our east leaving the area in the comma head which could lay down a line of high QPF amounts and this bears watching for flooding concerns. At the same time, cold air begins to wrap around the system from the north and snow may be a concern especially in the mountains. Snow showers should linger into Tuesday in the mountains while it still looks warm enough for rain elsewhere. Weak front brushes the area Wednesday. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1255 PM Thursday... Still some MVFR and IFR ceilings holding on across the north this afternoon. However, the stratus continues to erode and should see PKB and CKB come up within the next hour or two. A warm front that is currently stationed across Central Tennessee will continue to push northward this evening. This will spread mid level ceilings across the area at first, but decks will lower after midnight from south to north. Look for mostly MVFR conditions with rain through the morning hours Friday. Although current TAFs don`t contain IFR tomorrow morning, it is possible that in the heavier pockets of rain we will see IFR for ceiling and visibilities. Conditions will start to improve towards the end of the forecast period once the warm front pushes through. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thresholds lower ceilings and visibilities tomorrow morning with approaching warm front may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday as another system passes to our south. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MPK

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