Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211836 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 236 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE PLOTS AS IT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER. DEWPOINT DROPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SWIFT...ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO THE 30KT RANGE AT TIMES BACK IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. WATCHING THE DEWPOINT AT KILN DROP 13 DEGREES FROM 56 TO 43 IN THE LAST HOUR. COLD FRONTS OFTEN TIMES LIKE TO HANG UP IN THE CWA...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A CLEAN SWEEP. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT COVERAGE IS LESS THAN OPTIMUM LIKELY DUE TO THE STRATOCUMULUS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE MID MORNING HOURS. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER THE THINKING IS THAT DIURNAL HEATING WILL PLAY AS MUCH OF A FACTOR AS THE DYNAMICS IN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL EVAPORATION. WILL GET A BRIEF CLEAR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED IN BY MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID...DESPITE THE TSRA IN THE FORECAST...THIS SYSTEM RESEMBLES MORE OF A COLD SEASON WAVE CYCLONE AS WE TRANSITION TOWARDS FALL. WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY MONDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE BY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD. SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S IN THE LOW LANDS. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY. COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS AND CRW. THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING AROUND 5KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H M M M M H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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