Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020604 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 152 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATED THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE. THE SOUTHERN RIDGE OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH. SUCH IS THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT. DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS. DID NOT INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR. WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR FRIDAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT. PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY... WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHEAST WV WILL END BY 10Z...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOSE DEFINITION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ALSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. AFTER 00Z...FRONT LOSES DEFINITION AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DECREASING...EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY 06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE MAJOR TERMINALS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED IF CLOUDS HANG ON LONGER. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/02/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...JMV

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