Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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507 FXUS61 KRLX 040234 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 934 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper trough Sunday into Sunday night. Low pressure Monday night Tuesday. Briefly milder in its wake mid week, then much colder late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 930 PM Saturday... No significant changes made. Stratus continues to erode on the southern edge as cirrus takes over. As of 145 PM Saturday... As expected the stratus has held firm today as cirrus overspreads the area ahead of the next system. Even though some of this stratus will lift as the low level flow turns more SE, this will keep temps from dropping much tonight so another day of going above guidance for lows. A southern stream system will approach Sunday in the form of a surface wave with induced isentropic lift overspread the TN Valley into SW VA. Given how dry the low levels are, this will fall as virga initially before reaching the ground around sunrise. Thermal profiles suggest some wet snow may fall on the highest ridges in SW VA early Sunday morning but with little if any accumulation. Most of the lift will slide into VA as the day progresses with a S/W trof tracking thru the OH Valley. This combined with some downsloping SE flow should leave much of the area dry as the shadow and dry air keep any precip as virga until late in the day. Across the mountains, in particular Pocahontas County, light precip will fall as a mixture with all snow on the ridges. Temps on Sunday should manage to warm well into the 40s across the Lowlands with 30s in the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Saturday... Weak high pressure fills the void behind the Sunday/Sunday night system as the flow aloft turns southwesterly in advance of the next fast moving upper level low. In the cyclogenesis over the lower Mississippi Valley, a warm front/baroclinic zone sets up across the Tennessee Valley, bringing rain Monday night and Tuesday. The system strength will likely peak as it moves into the lower Ohio Valley, and then begin to fill as it continues northeastward. Overall, going to be about a one half to one inch type event, with the frontal boundary lingering from the mountains back into the lower Mississippi Valley. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM Saturday... Strong cold front arrives Thursday with an amplification to the synoptic scale pattern and a sharpening of the low level temperature gradient. Thunder potential is on the lower side right now, but will need to watch this as the event approaches. Likely to see some wind, and a cold airmass at -16C at 850mb will advect into the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Upslope snow likely to follow through the weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 640 PM Saturday.... Still have some lingering MVFR in stratus across the northeast, but this should gradually lift and break up through the night. Cirrus already firmly in place above this. Clouds should start to lower again Sunday, from south to north as a disturbance approaches. Held off on any precip mention in the TAFs for now, but may need to add some in late Sunday afternoon...better chance Sunday night though. Low level winds will gradually shift to SE through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes in clouds may vary this evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 12/04/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR possible in rain and snow, particularly in the mountains Sunday night into Monday. Additional IFR possible in rain and snow towards mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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