Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201457 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 957 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure today yields to southwest flow tonight and Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again through Thanksgiving. Cold front crosses Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 957 AM Monday... Clouds are leaving the northern mountains as planned as low level flow turns southwesterly in response to building high pressure at the surface. Forecast performing nicely and no substantive changes needed at this time. As of 555 AM Monday... Hastened clearing early this morning, with a slightly colder start, per ongoing clearing. Otherwise forecast on track. As of 110 AM Monday... High pressure slides south of the area this period. It cuts off the low level west to northwest upslope flow first thing this morning, so any lingering snow over the higher windward terrain will be gone by dawn, and the clouds will follow suit shortly thereafter, save for a little morning cu. Otherwise dry weather ensues this period, with southwest flow developing later today, around the backside of the exiting high. Along with sunshine, this will allow for a milder afternoon compared with Sunday. The south to southwest low level flow will limit radiative cooling tonight. Ridges will level off, even rise a bit, overnight
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Monday... High pressure will remain in control on Tuesday, with a warmer southwesterly flow taking hold as surface high pressure slides off to the east, out ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. Models still not indicating lots of moisture with this front, which will push east through the CWA late Tuesday through Wednesday morning, but still looking like a decent chance for precipitation, albeit light, across the north. Expect precipitation to start out as light rain Tuesday night, before transitioning to light rain and snow showers early Wednesday morning. At this point, generally less than an inch of accumulation is figured for the northern mountains late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, with no accumulation expected across lowland areas. Any precipitation will taper off by late morning Wednesday as front moves off to the east and moisture depth decreases. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Monday... High pressure will dominate the weather Thanksgiving day and Friday, with dry, but cool conditions. Focus then shifts to the weekend, when another system will potential move across the north, possibly spreading light precipitation back into the CWA. There is still a lot of uncertainty in this, but looking at the possibility of rain and snow showers again towards the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 555 AM Monday... The last of the upslope stratocu in and near the mountains was quickly eroding early this morning. MVFR ceilings may persist or reform per morning cu effect during the first hour or so. Otherwise high pressure passing south of the area will provide VFR conditions. Light west to southwest surface flow early this morning will become light south to southwest today, and then light south to southeast tonight. Moderate west to northwest flow aloft will become light to moderate west later this morning, and then light to moderate southwest tonight. This flow regime, coupled with the dry air, will preclude fog formation tonight, and none of the guidance so much as even hints at fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR ceilings may or may not occur early this morning CKB, EKN, BKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ABE/TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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