Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261509 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1009 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... SNOWFALL RATES ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SITES REPORTING OVER 6 INCHES AT THIS POINT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. STARTING TO LOSE THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION LINE MOVING OUT OF THE VIRGINIA COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME...WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL IN THE KANAWHA VALLEY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DESPITE THE HIGHER EXTREMES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CURRENT FORECAST IS HOLDING UP FAIRLY WELL. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL WV TODAY. REPORTS OF SNOW OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WRFNMM...WRFARW...AND RUC13. SYNOPTIC MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A GOOD TIMING AS SEEN IN QPF FIELDS. A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. OMEGA VALUES OF 15-20 MICRO BARS PER SECOND WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BURST OF SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EAST. MINOR OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT WEST INTO THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. BLENDED THEM WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MET NUMBERS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST WESTERN SITES TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN SITES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO AFFECT BKW AND CRW TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY VARY LATE THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H M M H M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H M L M M L H H H M M M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ032-037>040. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046- 047. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ033>036. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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