Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 272357 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 757 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORM FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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800 PM UPDATE... COVERAGE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY ON THE WANE WITH APPROACHING SUNSET. FRONT MADE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FCST AREA BUT WAS WASHING OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE NOT MUCH DROP IN DEW POINTS. THUS ALSO ALLOWED SCHC CHC SHRA/TSRA FARTHER N ON TUE. KEPT IDEA OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WHERE IT HAS RAINED. PREV DISCN... SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CONVECTION WAS QUICKLY ON THE WANE AND SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG WHERE IT HAS RAINED. SO IT IS MOST LIKELY CRW AND PKB. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TUE AROUND THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES HTS...CRW AND BKW AND ABSENT FARTHER N PKB...CKB AND EKN. THUS NOT EXPLICITLY CODED IN ANY OF THE TAFS. NOTE ONLY CRW AND PKB HAD MEASURABLE RAIN AND AVIATION IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION THIS PAST AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH HTS DID HAVE AVIATION IMPACTS IN RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU TUE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...KMC/TRM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30/DTC AVIATION...TRM

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