Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 130554 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 154 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MORE HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND LINGERS ON MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 145 AM UPDATE... SLOWED ONSET OF POPS A BIT SUN MORNING...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...COVER WITH PATCHES OF MOSTLY MID DECK CLOUDS. SO THE MOON SHOULD STILL BE EVIDENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR EXAMPLE 925 MB FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS AT 00Z THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE 20 KNOTS AFTER 06Z. SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH. MANY URBAN AREAS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR A MINIMUM IN THE WEST. WITH THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL INCREASING ON SUNDAY...INCREASED OUR SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. HAVE WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY AROUND 12-15Z. CERTAINLY NOT YOUR TYPICAL DOG DAY MID JULY PATTERN. LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOWN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF THE 250 MB JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SO SIMILAR TO TUESDAY THIS CONVECTION HAS DYNAMICS...NOT THE TYPICAL MID SUMMER HEATING/BUOYANCY ETC. THOUGH FLOW AROUND 850 MB LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR ABOUT 30 KNOTS...A BIT WEAKER THAN THIS PAST TUESDAY. STILL PICTURING THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SW DURING THE LATE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING INTO THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW MAY BE PARALLEL TO THAT DEVELOPMENT... WHICH MAY HINDER INFLOW TO STORMS FURTHER NORTHEAST...UP THE LINKS IN THE CONVECTIVE CHAIN. INCLUDED DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDDED HOURLY FORECAST. OF COURSE MANY SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD USE SOME RAIN. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED HPC THINKING...WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE PERSISTENT ON TWO ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DROP EAST SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A LEAD SHORT WAVE...WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TIMING...WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE...WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SECOND BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LEAVES MUCH OF MONDAY FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STORMS SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR. WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND THE FRONT...SOME OF THESE STORMS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE SEVERE. CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH LOTS OF HUMIDITY MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 70S TUESDAY IN THE DRIER CANADIAN AIR. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE OVER MOST OF OUR AREA FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK. THUS...THERE WILL ALSO BE JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE ARA WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD WILL PREVENT FOG FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AT EKN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREA COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THEY WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...WHERE STRONG TO DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WORK SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY NT. THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN A BIT AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG INTO THE NT. BY LATE SUNDAY NT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DURING AND AFTER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME COMMON. IFR OR WORSE WILL OCCUR RIGHT UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NT. LIGHT S SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW...FRESHEN AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY ON SUNDAY AND THEN DIMINISH A BIT SUN NT. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MODERATE W TO SW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NT CAN BRING DOWN THIS MOMENTUM ALOFT TO PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG OVERNIGHT MAY VARY A BIT. TIMING OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 07/13/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR IN ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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