Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 211400 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 900 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS ON THE STRONGEST FORCING. STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW. STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS. WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE HIGH. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30 NEAR TERM...MZ/JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.