Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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534 FXUS61 KRLX 110313 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1013 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek bringing another arctic blast and ushering in a more unsettled pattern through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1010 PM Saturday.. Used the latest runs of the HRRR and RAP to give the POPs, QPF, and snow grids some TLC along the far northern tier of the CWA beginning tonight through 18Z Sunday. The changes do not amount to all that much, and max out the totals to around 1.5 inches, but for only a very small area up in far northern Perry County. As of 200 PM Saturday... Clouds will be increasing tonight as mid and high level moisture advect into the area ahead of the next system. WAA will be increasing over the upper Ohio Valley on low level SW flow. Some good isentropic lift will develop as well, which will allow snow to overspread portions of the upper Ohio Valley. It still appears most of this will fall just north of the RLX CWA, perhaps clipping Perry/Morgan over to Clarksburg/Elkins later tonight. The consensus in the hi res models though keeps all of precip north of the CWA with the GFS/ECMWF showing QPF over the aforementioned areas. Given the amount of low level dry air in place...tend to favor keeping the precip north of the area but will leave a tight gradient of POPs across our northern fringe counties for some wiggle room. The best chance for any accumulations would across Perry/Morgan where a tenth or two is possible. This all pushes north Sunday morning with mainly a dry forecast for the daylight hours in broad SW flow aloft/SE flow at the surface. Expect some sunshine in the afternoon across SW VA and a good portion of WV. This along with downsloping should allow temps to approach 50 in the typical banana belt areas along US 119/I 79 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Saturday... The period starts with another front knocking on our doorstep. Continuing WAA will push H85 temps to near +10C ahead of this system, so predominantly a rain event for most areas. There will be a small window for brief frozen precip in/near the mountains from late Sunday evening into the pre-dawn hours Monday before too much warm air moves in aloft. Forecast soundings show low level thermal profiles favoring brief SN along the taller ridges with ZR possible in mountain valleys. While a light glaze of ice is possible, the changeover to rain should occur relatively quickly Monday morning with all rain across the area before dawn. Temperatures will remain cool but relatively mild compared to the previous several days and rain should end west-to-east late Monday into Tuesday with sfc high pressure building back in. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 PM Saturday... Confidence remains low concerning overall pattern evolution for the long term. Regardless of spatial and temporal discontinuities in model guidance, it does appear that another arctic airmass will filter in by mid week. Multiple rounds of precipitation are also possible through the period with any waves embedded in the larger scale flow. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 PM Saturday... For the area terminals, forecast is VFR ceilings and visibilities with winds turning southerly less than 10kts. Off the surface, low level flow to increase steadily through the period. Warm front will develop north of the terminals with light snow overspreading the region. Again, this will fall north of the PKB- CKB-EKN line, and will end up in warm advection warm sector flow through the period. Rain will move in from the west northwest towards the end of the period, but will lie just beyond the temporal scope of the TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium SE OH/N WV. High elsewhere. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Light snow tonight may sneak into northern TAF sites which would bring MVFR into play. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 12/11/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/DTC NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...DTC LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...26

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