Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221740 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 140 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Strong cold front and low pressure system crosses Monday and Monday night, with much cooler weather by midweek. Another cold front next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As 1255 PM Sunday... The last of the stretch of beautiful weather ends Monday. Clouds will increase tonight along with boundary layer winds. This should mitigate river valley fog, save for the mountain valleys. Overnight lows were kept on the warm side of guidance except across the mountain valleys. Temps may actually rise during the predawn as a stout LLJ moves approaches from the west. For Monday, we will be tracking the progress of a strong cold front into the area with surface low moves west of the area, up through the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers will be noted ahead of the front Monday morning. This will keep instability down and mitigate thunder. Having said that, this is a dynamic system overall, and given the strong forcing from the associated mid level system, concern exists for some of the stronger winds aloft to be transfered down with the front late afternoon despite. Temps were derived from a blend of guidance, trying to show warmer readings across the northern lowlands.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Main feature for the short term is the cold front which will push through late Monday and Monday night. Models have come into a bit better agreement on the synoptic features. A surface low should cross from central TN through central/western OH Monday and Monday night. Some small differences in the models at 500mb, namely on when the associated closed low opens and accelerates to the NE. Generally looking at 1-2 inches of rain...mainly Monday night. Will probably see some lingering showers behind the front on Tuesday, but main upper level forcing holds of until Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... In the wake of the cold front, much cooler weather is expected mid week. Will also have an upper level trough passing over Tuesday night through Wednesday night with showers. 850mb temperatures continue to look cold enough for show showers across the northern mountainous counties. Surface high pressure passes Thursday and Friday with another decent cold front expected Saturday per GFS -- or Saturday night per ECMWF. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 125 PM Sunday... VFR conditions should prevail tonight as boundary layer winds increase to near 40 kts out of the se. This should keep river valley fog in check, though EKN may decouple enough for MVFR vsby for a time overnight. The strengthening se low level flow will allow low stratus to move into the eastern slopes, but current thinking is that this will stay east of BKW through 12z. There is a concern for LLWS during the predawn, but confidence is too low to include in any tafs at this distance. Strong cold front approaches Monday with cloud bases lowering as scattered showers overspread the area by midday. VFR conditions were maintained as general MVFR/IFR conditions stay confined with frontal band which will move across just beyond the taf period. MVFR stratus may affect BKW on moistening se flow. Gusty se winds can be expected at most sites by late morning...generally 15 to 20 kts except 25 kts at BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers ahead of the front Monday may result in brief reductions in vsby. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... A strong cold front will cross the area in late Monday afternoon and early evening. IFR conditions and gusty winds can be expected along the heavier showers or storms.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30

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