Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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359 FXUS61 KRLX 251513 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1113 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances providing a few light showers, even a thunderstorm. Dry midweek under high pressure. Progressive pattern takes hold late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 615 AM Sunday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary. As of 405 AM Sunday... Minor flooding continues across portions of NE Kentucky. Waters will recede slowly in many locations. High pressure will provide mostly clear skies today and tonight. This will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 70s lowlands ranging to around 70F higher elevations. Dry conditions will continue through tonight. Areas of fog could be possible later overnight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 435 AM Sunday... Monday brings a reinforcing shot of cooler air on a weak, dry cold front that will be hardly noticeable. High pressure passes south of the area late Monday and Monday evening. A stronger reinforcing cold front and upper level short wave trough cross overnight Monday night and Tuesday. Models have come into better agreement on this being the last and strongest of several short wave troughs moving through, and that it can garner enough moisture for the chance for showers and thunderstorms, the best chance for thunderstorms in the heat of the day Tuesday midday and afternoon. The timing of the exodus of the system is such that showers and thunderstorms will die down and/or move out of the area early Tuesday evening. High pressure builds in Tuesday night for a clear, calm night, which then sets up a gorgeous day on Wednesday, with bountiful sunshine and comfortably low humidity, especially for late June. As the high exits Wednesday night, a return southerly flow of warmer and more humid air ensues. Central guidance temperatures accepted, below normal early on, then getting closer to normal Wednesday afternoon and night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 435 AM Sunday... Upper level low flattens this period, as surface high pressure exits. This results in a low level south to southwest flow of increasingly warm and humid air, beneath westerly upper level flow. With ripples in the upper level flow, this will bring an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms into the middle Ohio Valley Thursday, and then throughout the area on Friday, the thunderstorms being mainly diurnally driven. The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases further Saturday, as a cold front, and stronger upper level short wave trough, approach. This feature may push on through the area on Sunday. Central guidance temperatures accepted, which are a little above normal. The latest MEX is even higher for highs Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1110 AM Sunday... High pressure with VFR conditions through the period. Flow will be mainly west today turning calm tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None except fog possible KEKN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog early Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.