Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 060007 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 707 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT. THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL ADVISORY ANTICIPATED. FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK. A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP... SITE BKW CRW EKN HTS PKB RECORD 16-2001+ 10-1917 0-1901 8-1902 6-1960 FCST 5 6 - 3 1 - 1 && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N. STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER FCST. BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING CLOUDS W. LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST. DID RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING SNOW COVER && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH. THIS EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE. STILL DO SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR AND THE MARCH SUN. BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY... BAND OF -SN MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING...SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY 03Z. EXPECT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS BAND OF SNOWFALL. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING TO VFR IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO VFR OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND PARTS OF WV...WITH CLEARING TO VFR EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BY 06Z...ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST VA LOWLANDS 09-12Z. MOUNTAINS MAY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR TO VFR...AND MAY NOT LIFT TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M H H M H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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