Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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138 FXUS61 KRLX 190537 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1237 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday. A cold front crosses late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1230 AM Friday... Quiet near term period ahead. Not much in the way of clouds with a dry column in place. This does create tricky low temperature forecasts... with some snow on the ground and clear skies, spots the decouple have the potential to really drop quickly. But, with some WAA off the surface, and lingering flow the question becomes if valleys can decouple or not. So far early this morning, we have kept a surface puff going at most locations and temperatures have not dropped overly fast -- in fact here at the office we have been warming slightly over the last couple hours. Models have quite a spread tomorrow night as well, opted to go colder than the previous forecast by several degrees for most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Thursday... Warm air advection continues with surface ridging into the area to start the weekend. Gradual warming is expected through the weekend ahead of the next storm system. High clouds start streaming in later Saturday, with enough sunshine during the day, especially toward the east, to warm us nicely into th 40`s and 50`s. A warm frontal boundary lifts across the region Sunday with some modest over-riding flow. Overall not expecting a heavy rain threat with this - expect mostly cloudy temperatures and a continuation of the warming trend light rain showers. Depending on timing, i.e. if the warm front lifts before diurnal heating takes over, there could be a wintry mix in the mountains upon precip onset. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 PM Thursday... The cold front associated with the aforementioned system skirting across the region moves through Monday into Monday night according to latest model guidance. Expect good moisture with PW around an inch or so, far above the climatological norm. Luckily, this is a progressive system so not expected widespread water issues at this time in spite of heavy rain potential. Will have to keep an eye on rivers for ice jams, however. Expect a Tuesday morning changeover to a wintry mix and snow, especially across higher terrain. Models at this time don`t show great potential for cold air advection/upslope showers for very long behind the front, but long range models are notoriously poor in modeling these things - so have added in low PoPs Tuesday especially across the north. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Friday... VFR expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally be S to SW, with some gusts of 15-20 kts possible during the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 01/19/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MZ

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