Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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579 FXUS61 KRLX 240525 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low digs into the Tennessee Valley and brings chances of showers overnight through Thursday. Unsettled again for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 730 PM Tuesday... No significant changes necessary. As of 235 PM Tuesday... Digging upper level low over the Midwest is kicking out embedded waves in the cyclonic flow out ahead of it, the first of which arriving is responsible for an expanding precipitation shield now pushing across the Tug Fork Valley. So the coverage of rain will be on the increase through this evening, especially over the Ohio Valley as the waves aloft push into the region. Really wanted to take the thunder out, but will allow the slight chance of thunder through the evening even pushing the procedure with higher CAPE criteria to generate the areas of thunder. The upper closed low will continue to dig into the Tennessee, while continuing to eject energy into the CWA. Should get a lull later tonight, but ramp the POPs up fairly sharply heading into Wednesday. The old day 2 rainfall forecasts from WPC puts the mountains in a marginal risk for excessive tomorrow. For the lowland areas, this should equate to a half inch to three quarter inch even through 00Z Thursday, and possibly double that for the mountains. Not expecting water issues as of this issuance, and no headlines in place. Upper level low to keep the temperatures in check through the near term, with lowland 50s tonight and around 70 to the lower 70s Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM Tuesday... Upper low over the Ohio Valley early this period gets kicked out by end of this period. Til then, upper disturbances swirling around this upper low will bring likely chances for showers through the day Thursday. Temperatures will be cooling by Thursday as we get on the back side of the upper low itself, with temps slightly below normal for this time of year with all the clouds and showers. Instability looks very meager so no thunder included with the showers. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM Tuesday... With the upper low having been kicked out by Friday and high pressure moving in, it looks to be dry Friday with some temperature recovery under more sunshine. The flow aloft quickly becomes zonal by the weekend. We again return to unsettled conditions for the weekend as upper disturbances within this zonal flow act on increasing moisture from the gulf of mexico on the back side of the high pressure. Temperatures will respond to slightly above normal levels. High pressure finally builds in for awhile early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1245 AM Wednesday... Radar show areas of rain moving northeast across the tri state area, and another batch across the northeast mountains. Expect mostly MVFR conditions with very brief IFR/LIFR along with the rain. Bufkit soundings suggest saturation at the lower levels at PKB, CRW, HTS and BKW by 07-08Z.A low stratus deck is expected to develop overnight across most sites. Conditions could improve to VFR/MVFR in the morning by 14Z. But the environment will remain unsettled through Sunday with the passage of a low pressure system. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain could vary. May need to be more aggressive with IFR or LIFR tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Upper level low keeps IFR chances in play through Thursday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.