Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 092022 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 322 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Sfc obs, satellite and radar images show flurries and light snow showers across the area. It is evident that the available low level moisture comes from the Great Lakes region. Forecast on track. No changes necessary. Under northwest flow, upslope snow will continue mainly over the northeast mountains. High pressure builds in Saturday to bring drier but below freezing temperatures for highs on Saturday. Used the blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 PM Friday... A warm front will develop over the upper Ohio Valley Sunday in response to a surface low emerging out of the southern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level impulse zipping through the increasing zonal flow will help to increase the isentropic lift across the Ohio Valley in proximity to the warm front. Confidence is increasing on this staying just north of the area, perhaps clipping portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia zones with some light snow later Sunday before turning to rain overnight into Monday. This remains a low confidence forecast primarily due to the extent of WAA from the south. Much of the remainder of the area should stay dry until late Sunday as the cold front approaches. A non diurnal trace was maintained Sunday night with increasing WAA in the low levels as which point rain will be the predominate precip type for most of the area. CAD on the eastern slopes may keep a freezing rain threat in, at least initially. The cold front exits Monday with a drying trend to ensue. It will be warm with a spike into the low 50s possible before the front crosses.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 325 PM Friday... There continues to be some disagreement on how the next shot of cold air comes to fruition later next week. This argues for not straying away from the Superblend for now. This brings the next round of arctic air into the area midweek which may or may not be ushered in by a wave on the front.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Friday... Radar and satellite images show low level moisture from the Great Lakes region moving southeast into our area. Models suggest light snow showers will continue through 22Z lowlands, through 03Z higher elevations. Therefore, expect VFR conditions becoming MVFR/IFR along any snow shower. Abundant low level moisture could keep flurries going through Saturday morning mainly northeast mountains. Sfc high pressure builds over the OH valley Saturday bringing colder and clear conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may vary through tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M L M H M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H L M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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