Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190531 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 131 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure through most of this week, with warm afternoons and cool nights. Weak upper level impulse today into Wednesday, with showers possible.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Tuesday... Generally quiet weather continues with weak high pressure at the surface. We do have an upper level shortwave trough and very weak cold front approaching from the west. This is already pushing some mid to high clouds in from the west. The cold front looks to wash out as it reaches CWA, but with some moisture pooled along it and the help of the upper level forcing, have isolated to scattered showers and storms in the middle Ohio River Valley today. Models are showing potential for showers tonight as well as the axis of the upper shortwave trough drifts through. This feature currently has showers and storms with it across IL/IN, however concerned the washed out cold front will no longer have the umph to keep things going after the sun set. Still...maintained some isolated showers overnight for now...at least until higher res models add their input.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday... A weak upper-level disturbance moves overhead during the period with a boundary draped across the Ohio Valley. Although the front struggles to actually move into the area, upper- level support and extant low- level moisture indicates at least diurnal shower activity. Thunderstorms are possible with models indicating instability on the order of 1500 CAPE Wednesday afternoon, though little shear exists to organize into a severe threat. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday... Deep ridging across the eastern US extends into the region for the period upstream of a meandering Jose in the Atlantic. This more robust area of high pressure greatly limits shower and storm activity. Low-level moisture remains, however, so foggy mornings are likely. Mountain showers/storms are also possible though likelihood generally wanes through the period with high pressure building and pushing any opportunistic frontal boundary northward out of the area. Brought PoP`s up somewhat in the mountains through the period given moisture availability in spite of weak forcing. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Tuesday... Starting to see signs of fog formation early this morning, so going with a near carbon copy of yesterdays fog forecast. Delayed a bit across the west due to some initial clouds. Fog will dissipate 13Z-14Z with VFR expected today. Expecting some isolated to scattered showers across Ohio River Valley but not enough confidence to include even a VCSH mention at this time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary. May need to add a shower mention along and west of I-77. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/19/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L L L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning this week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MAC LONG TERM...MAC AVIATION...MZ

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