Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250555 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 155 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low over Ohio Valley will move east across the area bringing chances for showers and storms through Friday. Additional disturbances provide precipitation chances over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 130 AM Thursday... Current forecast remains on track. No changes necessary. As of 905 PM Wednesday... Not much change except for trying to time PoPs in the 0-6 hr range. As of 215 PM Wednesday... Upper low continues to dig into the Mid Mississippi Valley with energy rotating into the CWA in the cyclonic flow. The weak instability has been overcome enough to get embedded convection within a stratiform rain shield, making the severe threat rather tricky given the directional shear profiles. Expecting more convection to fire in the dry slot in the wake of this shield where clearing has taken place. Wind and hail threat exists as well. Take the POPs down considerably tonight in this drier air after frontal passage from south to north with the absence of the heating. As the low continues to rotate into the northeast, additional embedded waves will be the source of forcing in the cold pool aloft heading into Thursday. There will also be a low level jet streak across the southern CWA which will help with some of the organization of the convection, but just in the general thunderstorm area from the SPC guidance. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM Wednesday... Upper level low will move off to the northeast Thursday night and Friday, with showers pulling out of the area. Models are fairly consistent with a disturbance then moving through Friday night into Saturday, providing additional showers, with thunderstorms possible by Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 PM Wednesday... Models show a disturbance moving across the area Saturday night or Sunday. Depending on the timing of this disturbance, could see some decent CAPE for Sunday afternoon. Will need to keep an eye out for the possibility of hail. Models then diverge a bit with the timing of a cold front for early next week. This leads to a low confidence forecast for the timing of precipitation Monday and Tuesday, in addition to temperatures during this time frame. By Wednesday, cooler air from an upper level trough should be over the area with a few showers not out of the question. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1050 PM Wednesday... Showers are moving north away from HTS, CRW, BKW, but affecting CKB, EKN and PKB with IFR/MVFR conditions through a least 08-09Z. An MVFR ceiling could stay over most sites for the rest of the night. Conditions should improve by 13-14Z. A low pressure system could produce numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and evening. Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible along the heavier showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... Forecast Confidence: Low ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Post thunderstorm environments tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 05/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible during rainfall. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...JW/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.