Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 021732 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 07Z GENERALLY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST...BISECTING CWA IN HALF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATH OF THIS LOW...AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...OR TIMING. NAM TAKES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN...WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING AND NORTHERN EXTENT...WHICH KEEPS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. NUMEROUS VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...WILL HELP TO TRIGGER PRECIP AT TIMES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH TIME. MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.7 ACROSS THE SOUTH...COMBINED WITH A WEAK FLOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER/ENHANCE CONVECTION AT TIMES...COULD SEE ISSUES DEVELOP WITH TIME. SOMEWHAT GOOD NEWS IS THAT FFG VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR...AND AROUND 2-2.2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...WILL FOR NOW...CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO. COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... IFR/LIFR FOG ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MVFR STRATUS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KHTS TO KCRW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE AFTER 14Z...HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. NUMEROUS WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY 15-03Z...WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN QUESTION. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006- 013>015-024>027-033>037. OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.