Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161826 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 226 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT POSSIBLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOWER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...AND SLOWLY MIXING OUT THE LOW STRATUS. MOST APPARENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AT THIS HOUR. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO DISSOLVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXTENSIVE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD SEE THIS COMING IN EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE 06Z IN PLACES...AND WILL BE STUBBORN TO MIX OUT WEDNESDAY. ALL SHOULD BE QUIET OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER...WILL BE EXPOSED TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE...DRIZZLE...AND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN. WILL KEEP SNOWSHOE BELOW 60F AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS MAY EVEN BE TOO GENEROUS AT THIS POINT. FEEL THE LOCAL MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS AREA IS TOO HIGH AS IT PUTS MARLINTON AT 70F. KEEP THE POPS/WEATHER UNMEASURABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... QUIET WX REGIME TO ROUND OUT THE WORKWEEK AS AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL NW FLOW. THERE WILL BE SOME STRATOCU AROUND AT TIMES...MOSTLY DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SE BY FRIDAY WHICH MAY KEEP MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE A WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF AMPLIFICATION AND COLD FRONT. TREND HAS BEEN TO DELAY THIS FEATURE SO THAT SUNDAY MAY END UP STAYING DRY UNTIL LATE. DELAYED POPS AND CLOUDS AS A RESULT. ONCE THE FRONT BLOWS THRU AND THE TROF SETTLES IN...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL SHOT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 30S IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STARTING TO SEE SOME MIXING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WHERE THE LOW STRATUS HAS PERSISTED...COMBINED WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE...SHOULD LOSE THE BULK OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 19Z AND BEFORE 22Z AS THE SKY BEGINS TO SLOWLY CLEAR AS WE HEAD TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY. INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG. DROP ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT BKW TO LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 06Z. FOG MIXES OUT AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY TO VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING OF THE MVFR COULD VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. TIMING OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H M M M M M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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