Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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600 FXUS61 KRLX 271355 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 955 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. Northwest flow with several upper level disturbances next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 945 AM Saturday... Main update was to raise highs today a degree or two in the river valleys of the Lowlands. H85 temps are progged to be 1 to 1.5 degrees higher than yesterday and combined with a light SE downsloping flow...think mid 90s will be realized in those locales. Even with the higher temps expected than yesterday...thinking that same SE flow will allow dewpoints to drop back a degree or two this afternoon. This should keep most areas shy of heat advisory criteria aside from some of the urban centers within the river valleys in the Lowlands. After collaboration with surrounding offices...have elected to stick with an SPS for heat index values nearing 100. As of 130 AM Saturday... High pressure firmly in control at the surface and aloft through the near term period. This will lead to another hot and humid day...with heat index values approaching 100 degrees. Do not have 100+ heat indices wide spread enough to meet county average criteria for a heat advisory. But do have some locations...like HTS for example...around 100 for an hour or two this afternoon. Much like yesterday...cannot rule out an isolated thundershower popping up in the heating of the day. Best chance should be the elevated heat source of the mountains...so have some isolated POPs this afternoon across generally the eastern third of CWA. Only minimal changes made to temperatures using a blend of bias- corrected MOS for lows and bias-corrected SREF for highs -- based on recent verification scores.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 220 AM Saturday... The area remains under an upper level ridge on Sunday. Can not rule out some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms...but chances remain small. Moisture increases some on Monday as a weak front approaches from the north. Therefore...will increase pops some. Considerable model differences by Tuesday on where the back door front will be. Will stay with a more northerly position for now since the flow is so light in the low levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 220 PM Friday... On or about Tuesday, the upper level ridge that has been lingering over the region begins to flatten allowing a more zonal progression. By Thursday an upper level trough digs over the mid atlantic. With progressive flow, left at least a schc to chc PoPs most periods. Best chance for a fropa would probably be Wed evening though not much qpf with any of the weak fronts that cross the area. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Saturday... 06Z Saturday through 06Z Sunday... Expect river valley fog to form early this morning, only have EKN going IFR, with other valley sites MVFR. However there could be some variability in this through sunrise. Otherwise VFR today, with only few to scattered cumulus. Cannot rule out an isolated shower...but coverage not high enough to warrant even a vicinity TAF mention. Light low level flow expected...mainly out of the S to SE this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of dense fog is in question overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L H M M H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover. Brief IFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms through mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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