Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281945 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 245 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH FORECAST AREA BRINGING RAIN. DRIER...COLDER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR ECHOES SHOW HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KHTS TO KCKB. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES ON TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO THIS EVENING BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE COOL AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...WITH BRINGING A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THAN OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH SHOW A MUCH DRIER SOLUN. BASED ON HPC PREFERENCES...TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SOLUNS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND GRADUAL DRYING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME -SN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EVENTUALLY DRY OUT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER...AND DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON EXPECTATION OF -8 TO -10 850MB TEMP AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING POPS. HAVE POPS MAXING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SLOWED DOWN OVERALL PROGRESSION JUST A LITTLE BASED MAINLY ON THE GFS. RECENTLY THE ECMWF HAD BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS...HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS NOT USED. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOST OF THE AREA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN IFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAINING THE WORST FLYING CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR VIS/CIGS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H L H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. MAY ALSO SEE IFR FOG IN VALLEYS IN THE MORNINGS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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