Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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608 FXUS61 KRLX 272316 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 600 PM EST MON FEB 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A DISTURBANCE BRINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY. WARM WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 600 PM MONDAY... WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND MESO MODEL TRENDS. AS OF 215 PM MONDAY.. BULK OF RAINFALL HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION TO THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON A LITTLE WHILE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS ATHENS AND PARKERSBURG. AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT, BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY. HAVE BROUGHT LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST, BUT EVENTUALLY LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING WARMTH, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70 DEGREES FOR A HIGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 320 AM MONDAY... HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL WATER/SEVERE WEATHER THREATS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. FLOWS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES, AND 850MB DEWPOINTS ON THE INCREASE TO 10C. DECENT AVAILABLE PW WITH NAM SHOWING 1.25 INCHES AIDED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS PUSHING THE 60F MARK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF MARCH. LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STOUT LINE OF STORMS TO ROLL THROUGH WITH A LOW END SEVERE POTENTIAL AND MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FROM THE QPF STANDPOINT, THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE, AND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY THRU THE CWA. STORMS WOULD LIKELY BRING WIND, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, HAIL WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT AND SHOULD EASILY SUSTAIN THEMSELVES MOVING SOUTH AND EAST WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. SPC DAY 3 HAS THE WHOLE CWA IN THE SLIGHT RISK, AND WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 320 AM MONDAY... BROAD SCALE TROUGH ALOFT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TAKES THE TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL, REINFORCED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE FLOW. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 600 PM MONDAY... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN WV ADN SW VA THIS EVENING COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO A BIT CONCERNED WTH FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT IN EASTERN VALLEYS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY, PROVIDING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MVFR, OR BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT IN EASTERN VALLEYS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...RPY

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