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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191311
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
911 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY FROM STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...BUT DRY WITH
WARM AFTERNOONS FOR EASTER WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
9 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS...OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS SHOW THAT THE STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROVING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER. MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL
SIDE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...SO WILL STAY
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES
GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE
INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR
FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN
ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE
LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS
BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF
WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED
THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY