Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240637 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 237 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon. High pressure will provide dry weather through midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Monday... Isolated showers will move across the eastern 1/2 of the area (along and east of CKB-CRW line) early this morning in association with leading shortwave. The hires guidance shows this activity exiting the eastern mtns by 12z. Residual low level moisture and light winds should promote fog development with dissipation by mid morning. A cold front will push southeast from the OH Valley across the central Appalachians tonight. The hires guidance shows isolated diurnally driven convection with the advancing FROPA mainly between 18-23z. Clearing skies tonight should result in valley fog which may become dense in spots early Tuesday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Sunday... The last gasp at any showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours associated with a weak front will slide through the areas Monday night. Behind the front, high pressure will take its place. Drier air will greet the forecast area bring small reprieve from the muggy,stormy and hot weather on Tuesday. This does not last long though. Some Mountain showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night as moisture surges northward in combination with a weak shortwave. Temperatures will be very close to climatology through this period. High will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s in the lowlands. The mountains will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s during the day with overnight lowers in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Sunday... The next cold front will move southeast from the Great Lakes Region late week. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. Timing will need to be monitored as currently, models suggest moisture increases substantially by Friday afternoon. For now, will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in late week. Should trends continue, could have heavy rain with thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonal through late week. Lowland highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s. The mountains will feature highs in the lower 80s with lows in the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Monday... Isolated showers over the eastern 1/2 of the airspace should weaken and exit the area by 12z. Areas of fog and low stratus should result in sub-VFR restrictions through 13-14z. VFR expected from mid morning through the afternoon. Cold front pushing southeast across the airspace should trigger isolated convection but coverage not enough for mention in 24/06z TAFs. Clearing skies tonight should promote fog formation into early Tuesday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More improved vis/cigs. Increased convective coverage this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H M M M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M L M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H M M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H M H M M M L M M M H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR Fog possible early Tuesday morning. Mainly VFR through midweek.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM...JB AVIATION...99

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