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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 290534
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
134 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low brings unsettled weather into the area
tonight. This system will affect the area through the work week,
before pulling out over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM Thursday...no significant updates needed.


As of 1015 PM Wednesday...

Have reworked the POPs to include higher values in the near term
based on radar trends and high resolution models once again. Also
took a glimpse at the new 00Z NAM for comparison sake. In the
end, no wholesale changes, but there are some decent increases
over the northeast mountains.

As of 145 PM Wednesday...

A broad and deep upper low over the Great Lakes region will move
south over the OH Valley and WV tonight. H500 charts show a
vorticity max producing a front for tonight into Thursday. Despite
of good forcing, low level moisture is not enough to sustain
organize convection.

Expect periods of showers or storms which each h500 vorticity
maximum through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

Large, anomalously deep upper level low meanders in KY Friday
before drifting north over into the weekend. This spells a cool
and showery regime, most notably across the northern half of the
CWA. As with previous forecasts, the highest pops remain across
these locales. We will have to watch for the potential for robust
tsra during the afternoon give the shear profiles and mid level
lapse rates. Diurnally driven instability accentuated with any
breaks in the clouds will ultimately determine just how strong any
cells would become.

As mentioned, the upper low will pull north into the OH Valley on
Saturday. As a result, the upper low will loosen its grip over the
region with improving weather. However, there will still be some
scattered shra to content with over parts of SE OH.

Temps were generally close to previous numbers with the coolest
daytime highs across western zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

The pesky upper low will be out of our hair Sunday. In its wake
the region will experience rising heights and warming conditions,
potentially to well above normal once again next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM Thursday...

Upper level low will continue to rotate across the area during the
period...with areas of showers...and thunderstorms...particularly
after 16-18Z. Expect brief gusty winds...heavy downpours...and
MVFR/IFR conditions at times...particularly in vicinity of
showers/storms. Bulk of convection will die off after
00Z...however...showers with restrictions...and areas of MVFR/IFR
cigs and vsbys will continue to linger for the remainder of the
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of any ceilings lifting to low VFR
this afternoon may vary from forecast. Coverage of convection this
afternoon...and resultant MVFR/IFR restrictions difficult to
pinpoint at this point.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 09/29/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Areas of ifr possible in showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...SL