Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 271750
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
150 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Cold front crosses Thursday with showers. High pressure Friday
into Saturday. A weak cold front Saturday night or Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Thursday...
An increase in coverage of showers has occurred which resulted in
upping the POPs through the morning and early afternoon.
As of 255 AM Thursday...
Some light precipitation moving across parts of Ohio this morning,
with warm frontal boundary associated with low pressure, currently
centered across northern IL/IN, in place. Models having a
difficult time depicting this precipitation this morning, so
generally tried to base morning pops off radar trends, with better
chances across northern SE Ohio and northern WV zones.
Focus then shifts to a cold front that will push east into the
region later today as the aforementioned low moves north and east
into the Great Lakes region. Cold front should enter southeast
Ohio zones by early to mid afternoon, and exit to the east of the
CWA late this evening. Out ahead of the front and behind, expect
gusty southwesterly to westerly winds to develop, along with
-shra. There could be a rumble of thunder later this afternoon,
with best chances across the north and east. In addition, plenty
of low cloud cover behind the front, which should linger for at
least much of the evening/night, particularly across the higher
terrain/eastern counties. In addition, could even see a
transition over to -dz later this evening behind the front,
particularly across eastern zones. Some partial clearing is
possible late tonight across parts of SE Ohio and WV lowlands.
Much cooler air will filter in behind the front tonight, with the
coolest temperatures across the higher terrain counties, and
southeast Ohio zones. At this point, not expecting any frost or
freeze headlines, with the expectation of some light wind
continuing for at least the first half of the night, although
winds should decrease particularly across western zones late
as high pressure builds in from the west.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM Thursday...
Models show sfc high pressure under zonal flow at H500 without any
shortwave running through. Under southwest flow at the sfc and H850
temps reaching 12C, expect dry weather with above normal
temperatures Saturday and Sunday.
Used a blend of models for temperatures through the period.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Thursday...
Despite of uncertainty in the extended periods, like the idea of
the gfs model with a clipper like features passing north of the
area Saturday and Sunday. Coded higher PoPs Saturday and Saturday
night with an associated cold front. Trended drier the rest of the
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 150 PM Thursday...
Cold front is fast approaching the Ohio Valley, and with it, a
wind shift of 30 to 60 degrees /veering/ can be expected with wind
gusts 15 to 25kts for an hour or two behind the front. Upstream
from the cold front lies a stratus deck with ceilings in the
2-3kft range, that may come down to the 1-2kft range in the
This stratus could start eroding overnight west to east, and
leaving the potential for very late overnight/early morning fog
development for the lowlands. For now, the thinking is that it may
occur too late, and rainfall across the area may be too sporadic
until that time to prime the boundary layer. The result is a more
conservative forecast, with very little in the way of IFR in the
forecast. The lower MVFR stratus should erode out lastly in the
CKB area...just before 18Z Friday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of gusty winds or MVFR conditions
later today may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M L H H M M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H L M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L M H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Widespread IFR not expected, although isolated valley fog in the
late overnights may occur.
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