Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240530 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1230 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure provides dry weather today into tonight. A cold front crosses Saturday with limited moisture. Colder Sunday. High pressure Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1230 AM Friday... Quiet day expected today with mostly sunny conditions as high pressure gradually drifts east. Stayed on the higher side of the guidance envelope today for high, with generally 50s to around 60 degrees. Fairly weak system approaches tonight. Have clouds on the increase, with some low end POPs arriving prior to sunrise across the northwestern part of the forecast area. Southerly winds should keep hilltops and ridges a bit warmer, but low spots may decouple before the clouds arrive. This makes the low forecast a bit tough, ended up a degree or so warming across the west, and a bit cooler east where the clouds will arrive later.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Thursday... WAA continues Friday night and delays diurnal cooling somewhat in response to an approaching short-wave trough and high pressure sliding to the east. The passage of a cold front Saturday morning will bring temperatures back down. Models continue to differ in available moisture coincident with favorable forcing near the front, however there is decent consistency with CAA/upslope showers Saturday night. So, between cold frontal passage and upslope, have opted for slight chance PoPs across the north and mountains with a chance during upsloping across the northern mountains. Rain will transition to mixed precip and snow in the mountains as cold air settles in, and will taper off entirely by daybreak Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... High pressure dominates the first three or so days of next week. Southwest flow brings a promising warming trend into mid-week ahead of another system. Models agree on a shortwave, perhaps cut-off aloft, embedded within otherwise zonal flow though timing has been inconsistent among models. So, have opted to follow a general blend of models with low confidence resulting in light shower activity Wednesday night through Thursday. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Friday... High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place with generally clear skies through the TAF period. Temperatures cold enough already to trend towards frost instead of fog. Still...some guidance showing potential for some fog at mainly HTS and PKB early this morning. Low level flow becomes southwesterly today, and then more southerly tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A brief period of predawn dense fog may sneak into HTS/PKB. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 11/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MZ

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