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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240637
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
237 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the afternoon. High pressure will provide dry weather
through midweek.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Monday...

Isolated showers will move across the eastern 1/2 of the area
(along and east of CKB-CRW line) early this morning in
association with leading shortwave. The hires guidance shows
this activity exiting the eastern mtns by 12z. Residual low
level moisture and light winds should promote fog development
with dissipation by mid morning.

A cold front will push southeast from the OH Valley across the
central Appalachians tonight. The hires guidance shows isolated
diurnally driven convection with the advancing FROPA mainly
between 18-23z. Clearing skies tonight should result in valley
fog which may become dense in spots early Tuesday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Sunday...

The last gasp at any showers and thunderstorms during the overnight
hours associated with a weak front will slide through the areas
Monday night. Behind the front, high pressure will take its
place. Drier air will greet the forecast area bring small
reprieve from the muggy,stormy and hot weather on Tuesday. This
does not last long though. Some Mountain showers and
thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night as
moisture surges northward in combination with a weak shortwave.

Temperatures will be very close to climatology through this
period. High will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s
in the lowlands. The mountains will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s during the day with overnight lowers in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM Sunday...

The next cold front will move southeast from the Great Lakes
Region late week. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of the front. Timing will need to be monitored
as currently, models suggest moisture increases substantially by
Friday afternoon. For now, will keep shower and thunderstorm
chances in late week. Should trends continue, could have heavy
rain with thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

Temperatures will continue to be seasonal through late week.
Lowland highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the
60s. The mountains will feature highs in the lower 80s with lows
in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Monday...

Isolated showers over the eastern 1/2 of the airspace should
weaken and exit the area by 12z. Areas of fog and low stratus
should result in sub-VFR restrictions through 13-14z. VFR
expected from mid morning through the afternoon. Cold front
pushing southeast across the airspace should trigger isolated
convection but coverage not enough for mention in 24/06z TAFs.
Clearing skies tonight should promote fog formation into early
Tuesday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More improved vis/cigs. Increased
convective coverage this afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/24/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...

IFR Fog possible early Tuesday morning. Mainly VFR through
midweek.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...99