Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212007 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 307 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... After another mild night, a cold front crosses the Middle Ohio Valley today. The front stalls or wavers through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Wednesday... A cold front currently over central portions of the CWA will stall as the 1st of several low pressure waves ride up along with it. NAM is further west and north with the GFS puts the axis along or near the Ohio River. All other models are somewhere inbetween. With the ground being saturated and and streams and rivers just experienced flooding, it won`t take much in the way of rain to cause flooding of small streams and creeks and get the rivers to rise as well. Rain from this 1st wave will set us up for the next wave on Friday into Saturday. So, have issue an FFA for our Ohio river counties and SE OH counties as 1st wave will pass over those areas starting 00Z Friday and continuing through 12Z Sunday. This watch may have to be expanded depending on where the heavier rains fall. Temperatures were a consenus of model guidance and QPF from OHRFC/WPC guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 135 AM Wednesday... Showers, heavy at times, will continue on Thursday as wave of low pressure moves northeast through the area along stalled frontal boundary. Anomalously high moisture content air, ushered into the region on strong llj, with pw values progged to rise to 1.3 to 1.4 inches. Could have a rumble of thunder during the afternoon Thursday, mainly across far southern/eastern zones. Frontal boundary will move back north across the area on Friday, with additional waves of low pressure moving northeast through the area, enhancing precipitation. Parts of southeast Ohio and northern WV still look to be hit the hardest in the short term period, with a general 1.5 to up to 2 inches of qpf expected across those areas, with lessor, but still significant amounts south and east of the Ohio River. Still looking like a good bet for at least localized flooding along creeks and streams during the period, and water headlines may be necessary in future shifts. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... Precipitation will be increasing during the period particularly Saturday night and Sunday out ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front will move through the area on Sunday, with a drying trend expected behind the front for early next week. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM Wednesday... A cold front, with showers along and behind it will bring MVFR to possibly IFR the rest of this afternoon into tonight. Also included some VCTS and wind gusts at all sites. MVFR to IFR is expected tonight in stratus and rain/fog. Winds will become W to NW with the frontal passage, and more northerly overnight. Cold front to stall over the area with waves of low pressure riding up and along the front overnight tonight and through the week. Best timing of the 1st wave will be towards 12Z to 18Z Thursday. Expect MVFR/IFR Cigs/VSBys as the wave of low pressure passes through during morning hours on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR Conditions along and behind the front could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L M H M M H L M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible at times in showers Thursday into the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011. OH...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday morning for KYZ101-103. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MC NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JS

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