Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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057 FXUS61 KRLX 181505 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1105 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons, with temperatures moderating through the weekend. A strong cold front and low pressure system cross early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1104 AM Wednesday... No changes necessary. It was another night of temps in th mid 30s within the growing season with reports of frost rolling in from various locations. We go back above normal for highs this afternoon, followed by another sharp drop in temps this evening. I`m not currently anticipating any headlines tonight with just patchy frost envisioned across the northern lowlands. As of 235 AM Wednesday... Looking at a rather carbon copy day today from yesterday, with slightly warmer temperatures, as high pressure slides eastward, and a light southerly flow takes hold. Kept temperatures a couple of degrees above guidance due to expected dry air and ample sunshine expected. Will be another day with low relative humidities, with humidities dipping into the 20 to lower 30 percent range again area wide. Winds however should remain relatively light. Tonight, not quite as cold as recently, but will still see some patchy frost, mainly in the mountainous counties where growing season has ended. River valley fog is also expected late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Wednesday... High pressure and upper level ridging cross this period, bringing about dry, pleasant mid autumn weather. Central guidance temperatures reflect a warming trend in increasing southerly flow, around the back side of the exiting high. Lowered afternoon dew points a bit. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 420 AM Wednesday... Pattern amplification takes place this period, with deep troughing developing in the east, and an equally amped up ridge in the west. After one more dry, warm day on Sunday, an initial upper level northern stream trough drives a cold front toward the area Sunday night, bringing an increasing chance for showers overnight Sunday night and Monday. A second upper level short wave trough digs deep into the eastern U.S. Monday night through Tuesday night, carving out a deep long wave trough by Wednesday. This drives a cold front through the area Monday night and Tuesday. This timing can vary, with the front possibly pushing into the Ohio Valley as early as Sunday night, on account of the initial northern stream short wave trough. Also, whether and when the second, digging trough picks up a southern stream feature, will determine whether and when a surface wave comes up along the front in the Monday night-Tuesday night period. With high confidence in trough amplification, and moderate confidence on a wave moving up along the front as the front crosses, have likely PoPs Monday and Monday night into Tuesday. Also have the chance for afternoon thunder ahead of the could front, throughout the area on Monday, and eastern portions of the area Tuesday. The northward transfer of moisture by the southern stream wave coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, will enhance precipitation amounts, if it comes up before the front is driven clear east of the area. The chance for showers continues Wednesday, beneath the low upper level heights. Central guidance temperatures reflect a cooling trend in response to the amplification of the trough in the eastern U.S., with highs below normal by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 120 AM Wednesday... VLIFR valley fog through 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions with light surface winds. VLIFR valley fog possible again late tonight, mainly after 09Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and development of valley fog tonight may differ from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... Dense valley fog possible each morning through the weekend, and in rain at times early next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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