Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230523 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1223 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through early next week with numerous rain showers, as an upper low rotates through the area. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1015 PM Sunday... No changes needed at this time. Compact and intense low pressure center located across the GA/TN line will move northeast overnight while slowly weakening. Rain will overspread the area as a result with a soaking through tomorrow. It still appears that the eastern half of WV and southwest VA will see some of the highest QPF amounts...either side of an inch but over a 12 hour period. There could be locally higher amounts in the mountains. As of 640 PM Sunday... Just some minor changes to the forecast through tomorrow...mainly to nudge pops toward latest runs of HRRR. QPF amounts still look manageable with regards to flood potential...so no headlines planned attm. It still appears the highest ridges of Randolph and Pocahontas will change to wet snow tomorrow with some accumulation likely by late afternoon. As of 250 PM Sunday... Weak short wave is currently pushing northward across West Virginia and spreading some light rain showers across the Eastern Forecast Area. There will likely be a break in the action before a more robust short wave arrives later tonight as upper low approaches. Rainfall tonight will likely be moderate to even heavy at times as the lapse rates increase with approaching 500mb low over the warm moist airmass settled in the low levels. Forecast soundings indicate some weak elevated instability, too weak to mention thunder in the forecast, but an embedded thunderstorm or two is certainly not out of the question. Have decided to not go with a flood watch with about an inch or slightly more QPF expected. There is some concern with the low level southeasterly flow late tonight. The upslope component could enhance some higher amounts along the east facing slopes and this is where I have currently placed the highest QPF values. However, in the Lowlands this could also cause the opposite scenario with a shadow effect. Overall, any flooding should be minor and localized. Precip will lighten up tomorrow morning, but wrap around showers will likely persist through the day. Flow turns to the NW as low passes to our SE. Model guidance is still trying to bring in colder temps aloft and rain may turn to snow at the higher elevations late Monday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... By Monday night, the strong low moves to our east taking most of the rain showers with it. However, wrap around moisture will continue to produce rain showers across the north and the possibility of snow showers along the northeast mountains under north to northwest flow into Tuesday. Guidance suggest it should be dry with mild temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Another but weaker low pressure system crosses east north of the area Wednesday bringing a pair of fronts with chance for mainly rain showers. Temperatures at H850 cool down to minus 7C suggesting all snow possible Wednesday night and Thursday. From Thursday night on, deep northwest flow will persists through the end of the week, allowing mid level short waves to ride along and produce upslope snow over the northeast mountains through the weekend. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1220 AM Monday... Overall, deteriorating aviation conditions expected through the TAF period as a strong upper level and surface low brings copious rain to the central Appalachians and middle Ohio Valley. Wind flows in the lower levels will keep the ceilings from lowering too quickly across the lowlands, but saturation of these lower levels will eventually bring conditions down to low end MVFR to IFR. However, increasing winds will keep them in check at the same time. A lot of moving parts to this forecast, so some lower confidence is involved here. EKN will also hold off the IFR with downsloping easterly winds. LAMP guidance is the most pessimistic with the forecast, but the pattern/timing is good, so tempered this with a blend of the MET and MAV for ceilings and visibilities. Heavier rain may need IFR TEMPOs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Conditions could fluctuate continuously with rain bands from system overnight and tomorrow. Timing of MVFR/IFR onset may vary slightly. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 01/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L H H M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H M H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L M M M L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR in rain and fog possible Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26

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