Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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256 FXUS61 KRLX 051925 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS HAVE THE BROAD AND COLD UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE...ROTATING EASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TONIGHT...THEN LIFTING ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP MOST SHOWERS CONFINED TO EASTERN WV. ENOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WESTERN WV BEHIND THE UPPER LOW ON ON FRIDAY TO BRING SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TRENDS IN THE HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIP ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW KEEP IT MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS ONLY POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES LEFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPON EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW...A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY INCREASES BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE AIRMASS...AND THE MORNING SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS GENERAL STORMS CREEPING BACK INTO THE LOWLAND AREAS WITH THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM. FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THINK WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL OF THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. KEEP THESE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE WEEKEND/START OF WORKWEEK. HOWEVER...THIS DOES LITTLE TO CHANGE THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. ONCE AGAIN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER SOGGY WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. TIL 00Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 00Z...IMPROVING TO VFR CEILINGS OHIO RIVER WESTWARD BY AROUND 03Z...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING THERE...AFFECTING HTS AND PKB. ELSEWHERE...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY DECREASE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 12Z...WHILE RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN WV...INCLUDING CKB AND EKN AND BKW...LOOK FOR CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO VFR CEILINGS AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL WV...INCLUDING CRW. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 12 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M L L L L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL COULD CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...JB AVIATION...JMV

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