Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222052 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 350 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06 TUESDAY. WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE. GENERALLY WENT A BIT COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY. CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY 12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS. MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH COLDER. DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF. THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY. WILL INCLUDE SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...MZ

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