Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281718 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SFC OBS. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW STRATO CU MORE ABUNDANT ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A RENEGADE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW LEVELS...WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND. CLEAR SKIES WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT FLOW. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH BC BLEND. HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LOWER FOR MOST AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS...AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES FROM A DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS AIRMASSES BECOME MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS ON. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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