Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271124 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 624 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer weather moving in with a strong cold front expected midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 610 AM Monday... Have increased pops across the northwest half of the area this morning per radar trends. Still, any QPF will be quite light. As of 240 AM Monday... This will be a transition period toward warmer and unsettled weather. Models in very good agreement on an upper disturbance lifting a weak warm front northward across the area today. Models actually split the energy with this upper feature as it approaches, with one piece tracking mainly across the north portion of the area, and a second piece tracking south of the area. This means while clouds will be widespread today across the area, precip chances will most likely be restricted to the north. Since the air is initially quite dry, will keep highest pops in the chance range today up north, and any QPF that may occur would be very light at best. Despite the clouds today, southerly flow behind the warm front will boost temperatures. Look for highs today in the lower 50s north to the lower 60s far south. For tonight, the upper disturbance and warm front will be north of the area, but another upper disturbance will approach late tonight from the southwest. So, we start out dry and bring a low chance of rain showers late, especially west. With the clouds and south breeze tonight, low temperatures will only be in 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Monday... Highlight of the short term will be the approaching cold front and potential water/severe weather threats heading into Wednesday. Flows increase ahead of the front with strong shear profiles, and 850mb dewpoints on the increase to 10C. Decent available PW with NAM showing 1.25 inches aided by surface dewpoints pushing the 60F mark, especially for the beginning of March. Looking at the potential for a stout line of storms to roll through with a low end severe potential and marginal potential for excessive rainfall. From the QPF standpoint, the system looks to be progressive, and should move quickly thru the CWA. Storms would likely bring wind, but given the time of year, hail would certainly not be ruled out and should easily sustain themselves moving south and east with height falls aloft. SPC day 3 has the whole CWA in the slight risk, and will add this to the HWO. In the wake of the cold front, residual moisture will result in rain/snow showers Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 AM Monday... Broad scale trough aloft situated over the Great Lakes takes the temperatures back below normal, reinforced Thursday night with another embedded short wave within the broader scale flow. Pattern becomes more zonal heading into the weekend with strong temperature recovery back into the 15-20 degree above normal range. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 12Z Monday thru 12Z Tuesday... As of 615 AM Monday... An upper level disturbance will lift a weak warm front northward across the area today, with winds becoming southerly 3 to 8 KTS. Today...This disturbance and warm front will bring widespread clouds, and some light rain showers mainly over southeast OH and northern WV this morning and early afternoon. However, the low levels are quite dry when this disturbance and warm front move across, thus, VFR ceilings 4000-10000 feet and VSBY AOA 7SM will generally prevail. The exception may be over southeast Ohio and northern WV where brief periods of MVFR are possible in scattered light showers. Tonight...As one disturbance lifts north of the area by evening, another will approach toward the end of the period, with a low chance of a shower in the west by 12Z. In any case, expect VFR conditions with ceilings mainly AOA 10000 feet and light south winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR in the north may be more widespread if the showers are heavier. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 02/27/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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