Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270535 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 135 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front is crossing the area tonight though showers and thunderstorms have largely moved east of the area. A large upper level low drops into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, and then swirls about the area Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 130 AM Tuesday... No significant changes necessary. Forecast on track. a bit concerned that there will not be much fog formation tonight as previously forecast as thinking a light puff of wind will linger for much of the night. Any fog that does form will probably be rather thin/patchy...and not long lived...and confined to deeper river valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Monday... Some seasonable Fall weather is finally on tap for the region. A Broad upper low/trough will dig south across the region and remain nearly stationary overhead. We will be mostly clear Tuesday night and will have a cool start to the day on lows drop into the 40s just about everywhere. The cool weather will remain through the end of the week as H500 anomaly of 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal expected with upper low. As the upper low pushes in we can also expect an increase in shower activity with cooling temps aloft and continued height falls on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 PM Monday... Operational and ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement with large upper level low remaining overhead well into the weekend. With the cool temperatures aloft...any daytime heating we receive will quickly yield showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. The good news is that this should bring some much needed rainfall to the region and amounts will remain light enough so we are not expecting any hydro issues. The upper low meanders northward Sunday into Monday with ridging moving in behind it. This will bring warm air back into the region with upper 70s to near 80 degrees for the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Tuesday... Cold front and associated showers to the east of the WV mountains...with gradual clearing to VFR taking place area wide. Could be some patchy mvfr/ifr fog late...generally after 09-10Z in deeper river valleys...possibly affecting sites such as KCRW and KEKN...but thinking most of the area will remain VFR overnight. Any for that is able to form should burn off by 13Z. Remainder of the TAF period should see VFR conditions...with West-southwesterly winds. Some gusts in the teens are possible during peak heating hours...dying off around sunset. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of any fog overnight in question. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/27/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H L L M L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L L M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Morning valley fog possible through Friday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK NEAR TERM...SL/JW SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.