National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 180009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
809 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --8 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE S OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

PREV DISCN...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH WARM MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WSW FLOW BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER OR FOCUS
CONVECTION. THE VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE SUNSHINE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL DRIVE WHICH AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
GONE WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS TWO FEATURES
APPROACH THE AREA. ONE WAVE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BRUSH
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. NEITHER FEATURE IS PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT COMBINATION
FOR WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY DAMP DAY TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY S/W TROF AND VORT MAX WILL CROSS TUE NIGHT AND WILL HELP
TO PUSH THE FRONT THRU. WILL LINGER POPS UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES
WED MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH SFC HIGH TAKING CONTROL
LATER WED AND THU. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --LESS STRATUS AND MORE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT COMPARED WITH LAST
NT. THE FOG WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR...WITH IFR MOST LIKELY AT EKN.

A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP OR
INCREASE STRATOCU IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SW. THIS MAY CAUSE
THE FOG TO START LIFTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY ON TUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CODED...ESPECIALLY S. IFR
ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.

SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES LIGHT NE ON TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NOT GET THE MIST/FOG TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ALSO MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK MIGHT REFORM
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE SW MAY OR MAY
NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO SPREADING
OVER THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TUE MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE TUE 06/18/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND / OR LOW CLOUDS TUE NT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.-- End Changed Discussion --

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JR
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM

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