Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011449 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1049 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME. .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN PULLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1045 AM UPDATE... LOWERED POPS TODAY ON UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER APPARENT DEFORMATION ZONE SUGGESTED IN NAM12 AND NEAR TERM MODELS ACTUALLY SETS UP. 630 AM UPDATE... NO CHANGES ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... WILL BE TRACKING S SYS ROUNDING BASE OF MEAN TROF THIS MORNING AND TRACKING THRU NC/VA PIEDMONT TODAY. WHILE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...CLOSED LOW IN THE H85 TO H7 LAYER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPING TO TRANSPORT ATLANTIC MOISTURE W. WHAT THIS MEANS IS AN UNSETTLED DAY E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MAGNITUDE OF LLJ AND W EXTENT OF RAINS...ALONG THE I79 CORRIDOR. GFS...HI RES WRF MODELS AND REGIONAL GEM FOCUS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. SO WHILE SOME STEADIER RAINS MAY SNEAK INTO SW VA AND SE WV PLATEAU THIS MORNING...THINK BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS TO COAST TODAY. HAVING SAID THAT...STILL A GOOD BET OF SCT SHRA ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH CHANCES TAILING OFF ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. STILL SEEING SIGNS OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SHIFTING W INTO SE OH IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THUNDER IN ACROSS W LOWLANDS/NE KY/SE OH LATER TODAY. TONIGHT MAY BE RELATIVELY QUITE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE HAVING PULLED E OF THE CWA. GIVEN VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...DENSE FOG TONIGHT TRICKY. STAYED CLOSE TO IN HOUSE LOCAL MOS AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH WARMER THEME ALONG AND W OF OH RIVER. STAYED ON WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THE TROUGH WILL SUPPLY SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING IN THE WEST. BY MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FINALLY RISE TO NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE LOWERING CIGS TODAY E SLOPES WITH SOME MVFR STRATUS GETTING INTO KBKW IN INCREASING MOIST SE FLOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SHRA AND AREAS OF -RA MAY SKIRT SW VA/SE WV THIS MORNING POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBKW TERMINAL BUT KEPT PREDOMINATE VSBY IN VFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE HAVE PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TDY AND THIS EVENING WITH A SHRA MENTION. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE KHTS/KPKB AFTER 18Z. PRECIP CHANCES WIND DOWN TONIGHT BUT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUD COVER...CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH FOR DENSE FOG. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF MVFR STRATUS FOR KBKW IN QUESTION TODAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30

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