Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301731 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 131 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak cool front crosses today. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1000 AM update... No changes this morning. Previous discussion... The line of showers and thunderstorms that moved across Ohio and Northern Kentucky overnight...is dissipating as it gets to the Ohio River early this morning. Expect little will survive east of the Ohio River before it dissipates by dawn. The very weak cool front that generated the convection...identified mainly by lower dewpoints behind it...is still over western Ohio and western Kentucky early this morning. However...this front will act in a typical summer time fashion...where the upper support and deeper moisture has continued to track east ahead of the surface front. We expect that after any early morning fog dissipates...and with diurnal heating later this morning and afternoon...the surface front will literally jump eastward across the area as drier air aloft mixes down. The front will likely jump through our western zones around mid morning...through central WV by early afternoon...and through the mountains by late afternoon...with winds turning northwesterly and bringing some drier air in behind the front. With the drying out process aloft ahead of the front...we expect just mainly widely scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to work eastward with the front. Will confine most pops with the front to the east of the Ohio River today...with best chance in the mountains in the afternoon heat. Otherwise...cold advection is lacking behind this front...and with more sunshine today...temperatures will actually be at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday...in the lower to mid 80s. So going on the high end of guidance. For tonight...look for clearing skies and decreasing winds to enhance radiational cooling in the drier air...so temperatures will actually be cooler tonight. look for lows ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south with some late night fog. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Much of short term periods will feature mainly tranquil wx. Upper level heights will quickly build back over the region Tuesday into Wednesday before height falls work back in with the approach of the next wx maker. As for Tuesday and Wednesday...kept isolated mention of popup shra/tsra over portions of the northern mountains...otherwise rolling with a dry and warm forecast. I suspect there will be the daily morning does of dense river valley fog to contend with. As mentioned above...an amplifying trof will move into the upper Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring a cold front thru long about Thursday. This will bring a good chance of shra/tsra to the area and have coded up pops into the likely range. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 230 AM UPDATE... Model consensus is for a deeper push of drier air into the area later Friday and Saturday. Updated pops to reflect this drier trend taking hold. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The mid levels of the atmosphere are very dry...which is a main reason why the cumulus formation during heating today does not have much vertical extent to it. There are low chances of showers or an isolated thunderstorm from about CKB to CRW and east through 00Z Tuesday...but not high enough for prevailing or VCTS/CB. Valley fog to settle in to many locations tonight...and relied heavily on LAMP guidance for this. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of valley fog tonight may vary. May need brief MVFR in SHRA through 00Z Tuesday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...ARJ/30 AVIATION...26

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