Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250600 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 200 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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200 AM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. 1000 PM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ASIDE FROM SOME POST COLD FRONTAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS...SIG WX NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOUD IN THE SKY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK OVER 580DKM IN STRONG RIDGING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 16C MARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...THINK 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND HAVE UTILIZED THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE. THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EARLY SAT MORNING. DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY E OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH JUST MVFR MIST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z SAT MORNING...YIELDING A VFR DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W MAY BRING SPRINKLES...EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...E OF THE OHIO RIVER SAT AFTERNOON AND NT. AN ASSOCIATED STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR SAT NT. NEAR AND W OF THE OHIO RIVER...THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AS THE BASES LOWER...SO MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER BE REALIZED. CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W TO SW SFC FLOW SAT...AND THEN BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS SAT NT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES. SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND SAT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG NW BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING COULD VARY. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES SAT EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 10/25/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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