Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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632 FXUS61 KRLX 102331 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 631 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A WINTRY MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL EVENTUALLY JUST TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HTS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG RIDGE TOPS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION AND EVEN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MPK

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