Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 181532
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1132 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbance, combine with moisture from lake Michigan
will promote light snow showers today through Tuesday morning.
Clipper system crosses midweek more snow and strong gusty winds.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1120 AM Monday...
Updated temperatures and dew points to better reflect observed
conditions. Snowfall accumulations in the mountains have been
reduced some over the previous forecast. A strong inversion
noted near the bottom of the dendritic growth zone combined
with turbulent flow and warm ground conditions will make it
rather difficult to accumulate more than an inch or two of snow
in the mountains today and tonight.
Currently collaborating with land management agencies and
neighboring WFOs for fire danger statements for Tuesday.
As of 302 AM Monday...
A strong H500 positively tilted trough axis pivots down across the
Ohio Valley and WV today and tonight. This feature will combine with
cold air aloft (around -10C at H850), and a fetch of moisture from
the Lake Michigan to promote scattered snow showers across the area
through tonight. However, a well-mixed boundary layer with wide
surface dewpoint depression, will promote melting and evaporation of
hydrometeors, preventing some of the precipitation to reach the
ground, and resulting in periods of sprinkles or flurries across the
lowlands today.
Although little or no snow accumulations are expected across the
lowlands, 1 to 4 inches of snow could accumulate along the western
slopes and higher elevations of our northeast mountains through
early Tuesday morning. Locally higher amounts will be possible.
Accumulation averages expected not quite reaching advisory criteria
over those zones. In coordination with neighboring offices, opted to
hold off on issuance as heavier snow accumulations will occur during
the overnight hours Monday night.
Winds aloft will be west northwest 20 to 30 knots. Expect some
of these winds to mix down under CAA to produce surface wind
gusts up to 20 knots across the lowlands, and up to 30 knots
over the higher elevations.
With cold air in place, today`s afternoon temperatures will only
reach the lower 40s in the lowlands and the 20s/30s along the higher
terrain. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 20s in the
lowlands, ranging into the teens across the higher elevations.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...
Strong northwest flow behind exiting upper-level trough keeps gusty
winds around through the day Tuesday, with a wind advisory looking
likely across the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph
counties late Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow showers will be tapering
off Tuesday morning with a few residual upslope snow showers lasting
into the afternoon. Tuesday will be 7 to 10 degrees warmer than
Monday with the lowlands reaching the low 50s in spots.
Secondary shortwave trough(clipper system) moves through Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Reintroducing chances for snow and rain
showers across the mountains Tuesday night. Additional snow
accumulations look iffy, but minimal snowfall is possible across the
West Virginia Ski Country. Fire weather could be a concern Tuesday
afternoon as RH values are forecasted to be in the 20s and lower 30s
across the forecast area and winds will be gusty; recent moisture
that will be picked up today could mitigate this threat though.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...
Largely drying out Wednesday night and Thursday with high pressure
at the surface underneath strong northwest flow. Thursday afternoon
will certainly be a concern for fire weather as breezy to gusty
northwest winds will mix down drier air, creating afternoon RHs
forecasted to be in the 20s.
Models are starting to agree on a track for our weekend system. The
southern stream trough looks to track across the deep south on
Friday, then moves northeast through the Piedmont of VA/NC/SC and
the DelMarVa. Without a direct hit from this system, kept chance
PoPs Friday through Saturday, due to the proximity of the low and
energy from the system moving over.
There does appear to be a brief window of snow showers that may
occur across SE Ohio and the northeastern mountains Friday
morning, but at this time confidence is low that there will be
impacts or accumulations. Guidance is trending for warmer
temperatures later this coming weekend/start of next week.
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.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 630 AM Monday...
Widespread VFR conditions under gusty winds will prevail today,
despite of expected light snow showers or flurries across the
lowlands this afternoon and tonight. Satellite imagery and METARs
show mostly clear skies across most parts of WV, and a 5,000 feet
cloud base developing across the Mid Ohio valley. Under west
northwest flow aloft, colder air and moisture from lake Michigan
will arrive to our local region early this afternoon and tonight.
This will produce upslope snow showers across our central and
northern mountains through early Tuesday morning. IFR conditions
will be possible in snow showers across the northeast mountains
through tonight.
Strong upper level trough pivots across the OH Valley and WV today
and tonight. This feature will provide upper level forcing, to
enhance moisture from Lake Michigan into snow showers across the
area through early Tuesday morning. Little or no accumulations are
anticipated across the lowlands. However, upslope snow will develop
to bring light snow accumulations over EKN and possibly BKW later
this afternoon through tonight. Still general guidance suggest VFR
conditions under snow showers at EKN, which will deviate to at least
MVFR ceilings during the snow showers. Outside snow showers,
stratocu bases will generally be 4-5 kft with visibility
unrestricted.
West to northwest surface flow will become gusty once again by mid
morning through tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. TAF
amendments may be needed Monday afternoon for MVFR or even IFR
conditions, as scattered snow showers target individual sites.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Periods of IFR conditions under snow showers possible in the
mountains Monday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ