Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171036 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 536 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. NO CHANGES OTHERWISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE REVERTING TO A SIMILAR SET UP FROM LATE LAST WEEK WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER ANOTHER MASSIVE INVERSION WITH AROUND 60-90MB DEPTH. THIS IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH GOING 100 SKY COVER ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 00Z TONIGHT. CARRY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO GO LONGER IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND STAYING UP SHOULD KEEP ANY POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AT BAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TEETERING ON THE MVFR/IFR CEILING THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISSUANCE JUST A TOUCH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE TAF PERIOD UNDER A STRONG DEVELOPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT...RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH LOW CEILINGS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL KEEP ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES FROM OCCURRING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SOME MIXING TODAY COULD BUMP THE CEILINGS UP OVER 2KFT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. MAY SEE BRIEF VFR AT PKB AND HTS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...26

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