Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 031352 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 952 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIND SHIFT SCOURS OUT CHILL OF DAYS PAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS BY TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEK...WITH EAST FLOW HERE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE WEEK...THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE ESE WHICH WILL BRING A DECENT WARM UP FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EASTERN SLOPES WILL STILL BE STUCK IN THE CHILL FOR ANOTHER DAY. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES AS WELL...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW MEANDERS BY TO THE SOUTH. MODELS ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP NEAR THE TRI-STATE REGION/MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND HAVE A RATHER BROAD AREA OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO ALLOW FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT LOCATION. ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...AND CONSEQUENTLY HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE EFFECT WE SEE IN THE I- 79 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...WHILE STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY...CLOUDS WILL BE HIGHER OFF THE GROUND WHICH SHOULD ALSO GIVE US A BRIGHTER DAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA...HAVE RATHER COOL AIR ALOFT...SO DID INCLUDE SOME THUNDER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE HERE OR THERE. HANG ONTO SOME POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR THE LOWLANDS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS BUT LINGERS THURSDAY...THEN IS GONE BY FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OFF THE NC COAST. HOWEVER...OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY TURN EASTERLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY... AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ONLY LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WERE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...IF THAT EASTERLY FLOW DOES REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY. REMOVED ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER IN THAT EAST FLOW ON THURSDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FURTHER W THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THOUGH...DIFFICULT TO TIME AND TRACK DISTURBANCES MOVING ESE FROM THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. THINK THE 00Z NAM WAS OVERDONE ON INITIAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS WERE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. ALL IN ALL...TRIED TO LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY AND WAS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY...WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WHERE THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP CLOUDS LIFT EVEN MORE FROM CKB TO CRW...BUT EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO BKW FOR TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY VARY. MAY NEED TO ADD AMEND FOR SHRA AS TRENDS BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE TODAY. .AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...MZ

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