Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 070549 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 137 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THURSDAY..WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1030PM UPDATE... PREVIOUS FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY GRIDS AGAIN AND LOWERED THE POPS TONIGHT. LAST OF THE CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EVERY FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE. THICK VALLEY FOG ALREADY FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. IN EARLIER TONIGHT...IT LOOKED IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AND 925 MB FLOW IS INCREASING. 88D VAD HERE AT RLX HAS INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MB. WILL BACK OFF ON THE FOG FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVEN CRW. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY FORM A RENEGADE SHOWER 12Z TO 15Z IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT POP TOO LOW FOR TAF INSERTION. STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK. WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY... WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE BEING SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PCPN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF FOG 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY COULD VARY. TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS COULD VARY. AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/SL NEAR TERM...SL/26 SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM...JB/RPY AVIATION...KTB/26

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