Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281336 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 936 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure crosses and then moves away today, with lingering NW flow showers. Brief dry weather mid week with another system late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Tuesday... Vort max is passing Central West Virginia at this time and IR imagery showing higher cloud tops within the circulation. The brightness temperatures has remained fairly constant with these showers as they progress across the area, so have left thunder out of the grids with no cloud top cooling occurring. With upper trough remaining in our vicinity through early this afternoon I have left in the possibility for isolated to scattered showers into this evening. Other than updating PoP I also increase cloud cover with visible imagery showing robust stratus field behind a cold front currently analyzed just east of Cincinnati. Temps are fairly uniform across the area, given the cloud cover and decided to leave forecast highs as is for now. As of 600 AM Tuesday... Removed thunder from the forecast for today. We do have the influence of the upper wave, but there hasn`t been any thunder right with the circulation -- its all well east. As of 140 AM Tuesday... Pretty easy to pick out the upper level low via satellite -- spinning its way into southwestern Ohio. Somewhat elongated surface low stretches from southern IN into central OH, with a cold front draped across the lower Ohio River Valley. These features will gradually move their way through today with showers becoming more NW flow driven by this afternoon. The showers will gradually come to an end from west to east late this afternoon into tonight. With plenty of clouds around afternoon highs will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Monday. Low clouds will be slow to break up tonight. Despite cold front passage, clouds and linger low level moisture will hold overnight lows above normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Tuesday... High pressure Wednesday before the next system begins to make its way into the region on Thursday afternoon. A broad area of low pressure moves right over the region Friday for an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms. A high shear/low buoyancy kind of regime, so not much in way of concerns except for isolated water issues. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 335 AM Tuesday... High pressure builds Saturday and Sunday. The next system arrives Monday or Tuesday and is another broad low pressure system - probably similar to the Thu/Fri system. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 600 AM Tuesday... Low stratus has been slow to move in so far, but do expect MVFR clouds to surge in as the upper system drifts across. Passing showers also expected through much of the day, with MVFR possible. Lingering low level moisture should keep low stratus around tonight as well with MVFR to IFR. Could also get some fog to develop with wet ground, however with low stratus already in place and a puff of wind remaining, confidence not real high on the fog. Southerly winds will turn westerly through the day as a cold front passes, and then become more northerly tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and category changes may vary. Onset of MVFR and then IFR tonight in low stratus and/or fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M M M M H M BKW CONSISTENCY L H L L L H H H M M H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H L H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M M H H H L AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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