Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 050000 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 755 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS SPELLS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. FIGURING LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMED OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...WHILE THE LARGER COMPLEX IN OHIO IS WANING IN SOUTHERN OHIO. FOR THE 3RD DAY...LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS WITH THE COOLING STORMS. CELLS COULD STILL FORM THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT HAD NOT DONE SO EARLIER. SO KEEPING THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED BY 04Z OR SO. SE FLOW ON SATURDAY - HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES LOWER THAN FRIDAY. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST 850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR 2 COOLER...SO WILL LEAVE MAX TEMP UNDER 90 DEGS FOR THE USUAL HOT SPOTS FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... STAGNANT PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE E CONUS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS OVER THE REGION THAT COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THERE SHOULD BE DIURNAL POPCORN SHRA/TSRA MAXIMIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AMID SOME SE FLOW. STILL...LOW POPS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS ON THE MUGGY SIDE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK TOWARD THURSDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AMID A TRANSITION MORE INTO A E CONUS TROF. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO CROSS LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH A GOOD SHOT A MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONVECTION MAINLY CENTERED ON THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 17Z TODAY...SO WILL PUT VCTS/CB IN AT CKB AND EKN. USING LARGELY A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WHEN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. BASED THE FOG THREAT TONIGHT ON DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE TERRIBLE SIDE...DUMPING ALL RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS INTO LIFR WHEN THERE TENDS TO BE MORE UNCERTAINTY AND BOUNCING OF THE OBS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY STILL NEED A TEMPO FOR CONVECTION IN CRW LATER THIS EVENING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT 2330Z TO INCLUDE IN TAF...THOUGHT VCNTY WAS BETTER. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/05/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING NEXT SEVERAL NTS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/30/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB/26

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