Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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163 FXUS61 KRLX 271917 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses late today and this evening. A stronger cold front crosses Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM Thursday... Cold front will pass through CWA this afternoon and evening with associated convection pushing east of the mountains by around 06Z. Moderate instability and shear profiles support linear convection with gusty winds being the main threat. However, up until now, cloud cover has been suppressing sfc heating, so much of the development that we have seen so far has been forced by convergent airflow, especially over central and eastern KY, where visible satellite imagery depicting numerous CU cloud streaks aligned with the mean flow. Expect precipitation associated with these streaks to continue to track east into the evening. After some clearing for the overnight hours, expect a dose of fog along the rivers and in elevated valley as the boundary layer decouples. High pressure settles in on Friday after warm front lifts north of the region with a warming trend. For temps went with a blend of the short term models and kept the idea previous official forecast was carrying. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Thursday... We will look for a warm front to develop across the Ohio Valley Friday night with rounds of convection. It still appears the ridge will build in enough to keep most of this activity northwest of the area but clipping portions of southeast Ohio. This trend holds for Saturday as well with the active warm front shifting further northwest of the area through Sunday. As a result only slight chance pops was inserted across portions of the area this weekend given lack of forcing and a decent cap. Southeasterly low level flow will allow temps to soar well above normal this weekend with the first 90 degree coded up for the Kanawha Valley on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 PM Thursday... Cold front will push through the region Monday and Monday night, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be heavy at times. Much cooler air will push in behind the front for early next week. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM Thursday... Through this evening there will be bands of convection moving through the forecast area. Will see mostly VFR condition with MVFR and isold IFR in vicinity of any showers as a cold front pushes through the area. Expect gusty winds ahead of front into this evening and stronger gusts near convection. Expect most precipitation to exit east by around 06Z with VFR for the overnight. However, a moist boundary layer remains in place and expect IFR in stratus in fog, especially along rivers and elevated valley to develop from 09Z to 12Z. Cig and Vsby values improve Friday as high pressure build in. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of showers and storms, and associated MVFR or worse conditions, may vary into this evening. Formation and then breakup of MVFR stratocu behind the cold front tonight may vary, as may fog formation late. Fog formation may depend upon dissipation of stratocu in the mountains. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR fog possible Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/30 NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KMC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.