Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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837 FXUS61 KRLX 280727 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 327 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings a stellar day today, before yielding to a southwest flow of warmer and more humid air Thursday through Saturday. Cold front crosses Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM Wednesday... High pressure building over the area early this morning, with its clear sky and light wind, was allowing temperatures to fall to near record levels: LocationForecast low this morning Record Year Current as of 3 am CRW Charleston 51 53 50 1988 HTS Huntington 51 54 47 1915 PKB Parkerburg 50 51 48 1988 EKN Elkins 43 46 39 1988 BKW Beckley 49 50 39 1955 CKB Clarksburg 49 50 46 1927 The high will bring about a stellar day today, with a warmer afternoon. South to southwest flow tonight will bring in increasing moisture, resulting in patchy cloud. The clouds, along with the gradient flow, and warmer air, will lead to a warmer night, especially on the hill and ridgetops. Blended in the MET and MAV for highs today and lows tonight, still a little below both beneath high pressure today. For lows tonight, lowered the valleys a bit and raised the hill and ridgetop a bit, increasing the ridge / valley split that the models indicated. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Broad high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast, will extend west into WV Thursday night. This will continue to bring mostly clear skies and warm temperatures through Friday. Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly approach from the northwest stalling to our north Saturday. Its vicinity could enhance the formation of showers or storms during the afternoon hours. Models show a series of upper level shortwaves that should keep the warm sector convectively active through the weekend. Overall, dry Thursday and Thursday night with PoPs increasing to likely by Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... By Sunday, with the weakened stationary front just north of the area, chances for pcpn diminish to bring dry conditions Sunday and Sunday night. Additional upper waves will keep unsettled weather through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 155 AM Wednesday... High pressure brings VFR except for early morning fog. All guidance suggests only CRW and EKN go LIFR, and some guidance does not even bring CRW to IFR. Fog is not likely to form Wednesday night, as the high moves east, giving way to southwest flow increasing to 25 to 30 kts aloft. The calm surface air under high pressure overnight will give way to light south to southwest flow by Wednesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium overnight for fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR at EKN may begin later than the 07Z time coded in the TAF. IFR may not form at all at CRW, although there will be dense fog in the valley along the Elk River there. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 06/28/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M L L L M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.