Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 252046 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 446 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY BEHIND MAJOR COASTAL STORM WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE LATE THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... QUITE A COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AT 18Z...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG IT. MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH AREAS OF EITHER RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...WITH SNOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. THE SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED ON SOUTHERN IL...WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING AS IT DOES SO. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAIN...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A RAIN SNOW MIX...THEN ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...FEEL CURRENT ADVISORY FOR JUST PERRY COUNTY SEEMS REASONABLE. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW...SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL HOVER AROUND OR ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...THUS LIMITING THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. SO ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SNOWING...WE MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW. OUTSIDE OF PERRY COUNTY...WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE CONFIGURED...GENERALLY HAVE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS SURROUNDING SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 4 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. PERRY COUNTY APPEARS TO STILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOWLAND COUNTY FOR ACCUMS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP EARLIER...AND STAY COLDER THERE LONGER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER... NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE ON TUESDAY WHEN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL DEEP ENOUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE SNOW CHANCES TO AN END. GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE COLDER FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE TWEAKED THESE VALUES DOWN TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THAT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY GIVES WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W. MODELS ARE GENERALLY A BIT FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIPITATION COULD REACH WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AROUND DAWN THU. THIS THEN SPREADS E ACROSS THE AREA THU...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THU NT INTO FRI. WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKING OF THE AREA...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR A MAINLY WET...NOT WHITE OR ICY...THU. HOWEVER...MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING IF PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO RUSH IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE BE OF THE WET VARIETY. COLDER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM CHANGES THE RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS BUT THEN QUICKLY CUTS OFF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE W AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH ON FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING FRI NT. ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS REMAIN DIVERSE ON THE NATURE AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NONE ADVERTISE ANYTHING MAJOR...AND ALL SHOW THAT THE OVERALL COLD THEME IN A POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES. THUS HAVE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. AT OR VERY CLOSE TO WPC VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY LOOKED LIKE A VERY REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE INORDINATELY COLD AND DRY ECMWFHIRES...AND THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TOO HIGH GIVEN ITS MASS FIELD SOLNS. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY...WITH PRECIP BREAKING OUT ALONG THIS FEATURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN IL WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX...THEN ALL SNOW. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS TERMINALS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES INCLUDING KPKB AROUND 06Z...AND A CHANGE OVER IN THE WV LOWLANDS 09-12Z...WITH CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS SUCH AS AT KCRW AFTER 15Z. MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS KEKN WILL GENERALLY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW AFTER 23Z SUNDAY. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOCAL LIFR AFTER 06-09Z. SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...GENERALLY AFTER 15Z FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING PRECIP AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L M H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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