Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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925 FXUS61 KRLX 220721 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 221 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm into the beginning of next week. Upper low rotates through the area Sunday and Monday, exiting Tuesday. Colder for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 PM Saturday... An area of rain has developed over northeastern KY and is moving northeastward. Have updated the forecast to account for this area. Have also delayed the arrival of precipitation Sunday morning based on the latest models. As of 210 PM Saturday... Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today and through Sunday. Even with mid and upper level clouds overspreading the region we have still seen widespread temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Generally, most of the area will remain dry through tonight as short wave passes just to our east. However, model guidance is still uncertain with meso guidance bringing measurable precip across the entire CWA, while the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF keep QPF along the Eastern Mountains. Current thinking is that the decent mid level instability is making meso models overdo QPF amounts. Based on forecast soundings it is very dry below 10K feet so likely we will see some very light rain or sprinkles in the Ohio Valley and the Lowlands as most of the returns currently on Radar is falling as VIRGA. I have kept some slight chance PoP in the Lowlands, but expecting very little in the way of any rainfall. Low level moisture is a little more intact across the Eastern Mountains and have left chance PoP here, but again the bulk of the forcing is to our east and any measurable rainfall is likely to hug our border with Blacksburg`s CWA. Another stronger upper trough ahead of the closed upper low will lift over our region through tomorrow and likely spread showers from south to north starting late in the morning. Guidance is in fairly good agreement with having this first wave through the area in the afternoon with a lull in the action before the more robust closed low arrives late tomorrow night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Heaviest band of rain should be departing to the north entering the start of the short term, with models suggesting a lull/dry slot for a short period of time in its wake. If nothing else, this would me a lesser coverage period of the rain, but will still carry the higher POPs given the abundant moisture and myriad of vort maxes rotating through the 500mb flow. As the parent upper level low exits to the northeast, there will be a transition to more of a modest northwest flow scenario with some upslope type precipitation. Cold advection will be modest, however, and the chances for snow will be limited to the northeast mountains. While the forecast snow amounts have been upped slightly, not anticipating any issues with mountain snow going forward. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Despite the lack of significant cold air on this side of the northern hemisphere, a building ridge aloft out west will result in a broad scale trough regime to set up for our area, changing the storm track to more clipper systems in the coming days with quick upper trough reinforcements of lower 500mb heights. Trend will be colder with northwest flow patterns in the low levels after a brief warm up mid week, and have extended chances for snow showers into the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06Z Sunday thru 06Z Monday... As of 115 AM Sunday... Very active weather pattern this period, with bands of rain rotating northward across the area as an upper low approaches from the west. For this morning, while the rain has ended for the time being, quite variable conditions will be the rule. There will be variable VFR clouds, except IFR ceilings on east facing slopes of the WV mountains affecting BKW. Where clouds break and winds stay calm, IFR river valley fog will occur through 13Z, affecting mainly EKN and PKB. After 13Z look for a band of generally light rain showers to lift northward thru the area today. Expect prevailing VFR conditions. This band will weaken as it gets into northern portions later this afternoon. However, more widespread rain showers will overspread the area by 00Z, with conditions lowering to MVFR by 06Z. South to southeast winds 5 to 10KTS today with higher mountain gusts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... Medium, except low with fog and timing of precipitation. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not form at more sites late tonight. Timing and location of southeast upslope clouds late tonight could vary, in addition to timing the rain. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 01/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY L H M M M M M M M L M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L L M H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L M H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR in rain and fog Sunday night and Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MPK/26 NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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