Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220008 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 808 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... THE COLD FRONT IS 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE CALENDAR...WITH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET SUNDAY...WITH DEW POINT GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW. CRW DEW POINT FINALLY DROPPING AT 00Z. IN WAKE OF FRONT...DRY SLOT. WILL BE SLOWER INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850 MB...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE COOL POOL...08Z TO 16Z. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EARLY EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE SOME FOG THERE FOR A TIME 00Z TO 06Z...BEFORE THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES EVEN THOSE DEEP VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE BY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD. SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S IN THE LOW LANDS. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET WITH DEW POINT GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW. HAVE SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS 01Z THRU 06Z DUE TO RECENT RAINS. DEW POINTS IN THOSE VALLEYS MAY BE SLOW TO DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT DID FIGURE THE GRADIENT WIND AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...EVEN IN THOSE DEEPER VALLEYS. DRY SLOP IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 TO 6 THSD FT. AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...WAS SLOWER IN DROPPING CEILINGS IN THE COOL POOL. THINK THE MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF CEILINGS NEAR 2 TO 3 THSD FT WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER WV MOUNTAINS 08Z TO 15Z MONDAY. FEW SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE CKB TO EKN VCNTY DURING THAT TIME. 18Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING AND SCATTERED OUT AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS DO NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. DEW POINT AT CRW DOES NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED WITH SOME FOG FORMING BY 06Z. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/22/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...KTB

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