Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221218 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 818 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues through tonight. Strong cold front and low pressure system crosses Monday and Monday night, with much cooler weather by midweek. Another cold front next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As 755 AM Sunday... I did a quick update to put a few hours of 4 SM smoke around the fire in Parkersburg. GOES 16 showing no movement to the plume, indicative of decoupling and strong low level inversion. This will lift by mid to lat morning as mixing occurs...ventilating and dispersing to the northeast before backing back to the north and northwest this afternoon as low level winds back to the southeast. As 240 AM Sunday... High pressure remains in control through tonight. The winds will become southeast tonight, producing downslope warming. Highs this afternoon could reach 82 degrees in the warmest spots. Lows will be in the 50s. Went with the bias corrected SREF with few adjustments for highs today. Used the blend of models for lows tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Main feature for the short term is the cold front which will push through late Monday and Monday night. Models have come into a bit better agreement on the synoptic features. A surface low should cross from central TN through central/western OH Monday and Monday night. Some small differences in the models at 500mb, namely on when the associated closed low opens and accelerates to the NE. Generally looking at 1-2 inches of rain...mainly Monday night. Will probably see some lingering showers behind the front on Tuesday, but main upper level forcing holds of until Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... In the wake of the cold front, much cooler weather is expected mid week. Will also have an upper level trough passing over Tuesday night through Wednesday night with showers. 850mb temperatures continue to look cold enough for show showers across the northern mountainous counties. Surface high pressure passes Thursday and Friday with another decent cold front expected Saturday per GFS -- or Saturday night per ECMWF. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 AM Sunday... Widespread VFR conditions expected today and tonight, with the exception of LIFR in dense fog at EKN until 13Z. High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions through tonight. The NAM and RAP models show boundary layer winds of 15 to 20 knots from the south. This winds will keep good ventilation preventing dense valley fog formation tonight. The exception will be at site EKN which is more protected where IFR visibilities of ceilings are expected once again during the 10Z- 13Z time period. The high pressure drift east tonight. Allowing winds to turn from the southwest into Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... A strong cold front will cross the area Monday and Monday night. IFR conditions and gusty winds can be expected along the heavier showers or storms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ

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