-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
660
FXUS61 KRLX 052337
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
737 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front stalls across the area tonight. An upper level
way bring showers and storms Monday. Active weather through the
work week, with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 745 PM Sunday...

Cleaned up near-term POPs a bit for current conditions, but
overall stuck with the idea of POPs winding down overall, and
the current activity shifting east into the evening. Did
introduce some patchy fog for the valleys, but it will be most
likely in any areas that got rain this afternoon/evening.


As of 120 PM Sunday...

A weak cold front will move into the region this afternoon and
evening, before stalling over the area later tonight. This will
provide some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Drier air aloft is evident on the soundings, with precipitable
water values considerably less than Saturday. This lessens the
chance of flash flooding, although it can not completely be
ruled out due to some areas receiving significant rainfall in
the last two days. The drier air aloft does provide a bit of a
downburst wind threat for any stronger storms, mainly over
central Ohio and northern West Virginia.

An upper level short wave will then provide showers and
thunderstorms for Monday. Precipitable water values recover into
the 1.5 to 1.75 range over eastern Kentucky, western West
Virginia, and southeast Ohio. Clouds however should limit
daytime heating, leading to limited CAPE values. With a frontal
boundary nearly stationary across the area however, am
concerned that it could serve as a focusing mechanism and lead
to some training storms and localized flash flooding.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1217 PM Sunday...

Severe weather will be possible across parts of the area Tuesday.
SPC currently has portions of southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and
western West Virginia outlooked in a slight risk of severe weather.
Models suggest that all severe hazards will be possible, but the
greatest threat may be damaging wind gusts. DCAPE values may exceed
1,000 J/kg, MUCAPE values look to exceed 2,000 J/kg, 0-6 km mean
wind looks to be around 25 kts, and the effective bulk wind
difference should be 25-30 kts. All of these parameters point toward
a possible damaging wind threat with thunderstorms on Tuesday. PWATs
are expected to be from 1.50-1.75", so flooding downpours will also
be possible in thunderstorms.

Another severe weather threat will exist Wednesday. The main severe
risks on Wednesday appear to be damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Forecast soundings show a large layer of mid-level dry air Wednesday
afternoon, which would be conducive to hail development and damaging
wind potential. SPC currently has portions of northeast Kentucky,
southeast Ohio and extreme western West Virginia outlooked in a 15%
risk for severe weather Wednesday (day 4).

The intensity of any thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons
will depend on how well the atmosphere destabilizes after prior
morning convection. In addition, the ground is becoming more
saturated due to recent convective activity over the past couple of
days. Any thunderstorms that move over saturated ground may lead to
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1218 PM Sunday...

A cold front will pass through the region Friday morning, and the
severe weather threat should diminish heading into next weekend as
cooler, more stable air funnels in behind the front. However,
showers will remain possible through the weekend with lingering
energy aloft. With the ground becoming increasingly saturated due to
recent convective activity, we may still have to keep an eye on the
threat of flooding heading into the end of the week. Confidence is
low at this time, so stay tuned for more details over the coming
days as the picture becomes clearer. Temperatures will be much
cooler Friday through next weekend, with highs only expected to be
in the 50s (mountains) and 60s to lower 70s (lowlands).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 730 PM Sunday...

Lingering showers will shift east and continue to weaken through
the evening, and most of the area should be dry overnight. While
there will be some mid-level clouds moving in tonight, areas
that got some rain may be at risk of fog formation if they can
radiate enough before those clouds move overhead. Thus, some
prevailing IFR visibility is forecast for CRW, HTS, and PKB,
with IFR fog in a TEMPO group for CKB due to less certainty. But
overall, the fog forecast is not high confidence for tonight. If
fog doesn`t form, an MVFR stratus deck will be possible.

Otherwise, no other aviation concerns expected overnight. Rain
and potentially some embedded thunderstorms moving back across
the area tomorrow could bring some MVFR vsby and ceilings.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium overall, low for fog tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog tonight will
likely vary from the forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms
into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Monday
night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...FK