Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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699 FXUS61 KRLX 091107 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 607 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Friday... Increased POPs some across the coal fields, with a decent area of snow sinking through web cams are showing a coating of snow from Beckley to Logan. With this increase in POPs was able to add a couple tenths of an inch of snow to this area through sunrise. As of 400 AM Friday... Cold weather has settled into the middle Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians. As an upper level trough passes today, expecting scattered flurries or snow showers across the lowlands with no accumulation. Snow will be a bit heavier across the northern mountainous counties of WV, where 1-3 inches is expected. Heights begin to rise again across the west this afternoon, which should start to break up the clouds. Surface high pressure begins nosing in late tonight, shutting down any lingering mountain snow showers. A relatively stiff breeze tonight into Friday will create wind chill values in the 10s and 20s across the lowlands, with the highest ridges of the mountains dipping a few degrees below zero for the wind chill. Used a blend of ECMWF MOS and previous forecast for temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Friday... Continued cold under high pressure through Sunday. A system approaches Sunday increasing temps and precipitation chances. Cold air may linger especially over SE Ohio before temps warm above freezing. So may see some light fzra there Sunday evening and into early Monday. Strong 850mb flow should scour out any remaining cold air changing precip to all rain by Monday morning. Models in fairly good agreement with this system though minor differences in timing could drastically change forecast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM Thursday... The extended was primarily populated with the Superblend given the volatility amongst the global models and ensembles. Overall, a reload of arctic air for the latter half of the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 600 AM Friday... Stratus deck in place with MVFR ceilings at most TAF sites. Do have some breaks moving in from southern Ohio, but think this should fill back in once the sun comes up and we get a bit of mixing. Expect lower ceilings -- into IFR -- in the mountains. Included some snow showers in all TAFS, although outside of EKN and BKW probably not much more than flurries. Included some MVFR visibilities at EKN and BKW. Clouds will gradually lift and break up from west to east later this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may vary into this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 12/09/16 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M M M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L M L M H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M H M M M L L AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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