Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222329 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 729 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TONIGHT. A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 720 PM UPDATE...EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ADDED A BUFFER ZONE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE ECHOS CURRENTLY ON RADAR. CKB HAS RECORDED 0.01 IN. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY TO COOL THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS A TOUCH. ONGOING FROST ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP. FROST COULD BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THAT AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. WE DO HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH RIGHT NOW...AND INCLUDED VCSH WITH THESE. EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN VFR AS THE SINK SOUTH AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CKB DID GET MEASURABLE PRECIP...SO INSERTED SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOUGH TO COME BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND DRIER AIR OOZES IN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN OVERNIGHT. .AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ NEAR TERM...JS/MZ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MZ

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