Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291259 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 859 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will sag southward on today and Tuesday...with a stronger front on Wednesday ushering in a cooler end to the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 9 am Monday... Cut back on pops across the area this thinking we wont see much in the way of activity until later this afternoon as heating helps to trigger convection...and as boundary...still to our north...gradually sinks south. changes necessary. As of 230 AM Monday... Nam and GFS struggling with the current state of the atmosphere. Neither model had the complex over Ohio nor the evening thunderstorms over WV. Therefore...leaned more heavily on the moisture plumes from the RAP and HRRR. Even these models seem under done with the precipitation on Monday considering a boundary is sliding into the area with plenty of low level went above guidance for chances of precipitation.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Upper ridge remains in control Tuesday, with another fairly hot day. Although moisture is beginning to drop off. Still enough lingering low level moisture in the mountainous counties to carry some slight chance to chance POPs during the afternoon and evening...tied mainly to the elevated heat source of the ridges. Stronger cold front moves through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Models indicate there is not a whole lot of moisture left with the front, so capped POPs in the chance range expecting a broken line of showers and storms moving from west to east late Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Much of the weekend to remain dry...and less humid with high pressure in control. However this will change as we approach the start of next southwesterly flow increases out ahead of approaching frontal boundary. With upper ridging in place...left the forecast dry for start of next week...although a pop up shower or storm cant be completely ruled out during daytime heating hours. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 610 AM Monday... Patch dense fog will burn off quickly this morning. A VFR cumulus deck can then be expected...with some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms causing brief restrictions. Some patchy dense fog can be expected again late tonight...more so in the mountain valleys. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipation this morning could vary. Due to the scattered nature of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening...timing as not been included in the TAFs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H L M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Early morning IFR possible in areas of fog into mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...RPY/SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.