Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 110529 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1229 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Next upper trough and cold front move in Monday night, with a stronger upper trough on Tuesday. Another cold shot arrives late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 1220 AM Monday...Forecast remains on track and no changes are needed at this time. As of 530 PM Sunday... No changes necessary. As of 155 PM Sunday... Upper level pattern remains active with the closed upper level low anchored over the Hudson Bay area. Another vort max within the flow aloft will drop in from the Great Lakes over the next few hours. Sensible weather impacts will be more low mid level cloud cover that will bring flurries and low end chances for measurable precipitation over the northeast mountains later tonight after 05Z. Flow then flattens out Monday ahead of the next system which brings a clipper system in for the short term period. For the most part, with the exception of the aforementioned northeast mountains tonight, the near term forecast is dry. Warm front aloft brings a tight temperature gradient and increase in 850hPa temperatures Monday, so should see a recovery in the temperatures across the southern and western zones to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Sunday... Clipper digs south into Great Lakes with strengthening area of low pressure at the surface. Associated cold front will move across Monday night and Tuesday with cold air advection taking place through the short term period. Vigorous 85h thermal trough moves across in wake of front passage. Models in general agreement that enough lift and dendritic growth zone will be in place to allow for a decent mountain snow event Tuesday into Wednesday. Bumped snow amounts up slightly for the eastern mountains, while leaving lighter snow amounts for the low lands. Expect to see some advisories needed for the eastern mountains as timeframe approaches for favored upslope areas. Surface gradients will be in place Wednesday morning for near or below zero wind chill values over the mountains. Other areas should see calm enough morning winds in a decoupled nocturnal boundary layer where wind chill will not be much concern. Thermal trough axis begins to shift eastward late Wednesday. Trimmed max and min temp values from model blends, keeping closer values with the inherited forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Sunday... Upper trough swings east with forecast guidance diverging after the middle of the week. In long term period made minimal adjustments to the model blend for days 5 through 7. Any precip we do receive this time period will likely be all snow as the models at least agree that the cold air remains in place through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1225 AM Monday... Expecting VFR through the TAF period, but there will be some VFR ceilings in the 4K to 5K feet range as a weak system passes across the north. Cold front will be approaching late Monday night into Tuesday morning, however, any restrictions should be after 06Z Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings overnight could come close to MVFR at CKB, EKN, or PKB. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 12/11/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Tuesday is forecast to have scattered snow showers across the entire area and IFR conditions will be possible at times, especially in the mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/26 NEAR TERM...MPK/SL/26 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...MPK

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