Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251113 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 613 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Turning colder in the wake of the cold front. Warmer with upper level disturbances and rain showers next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 605 AM Saturday... Had to do a little surgery on the temperatures this morning as the current post frontal air was already several degrees lower than the forecast at UNI, HTS, and PKB. No change to the non diurnal trend, but the changes overall were fairly significant. Also, removed thunder from the rest of the morning time frame. As of 240 AM Saturday... Cold front is knocking on the doorstep of the far western edge of the CWA. Convective activity still ongoing with slowed eastward progression across the Ohio River. Lightning counts have diminished overall, but also not really getting any warming on the IR satellite imagery. Following the HRRR for the timing which has demonstrated some pretty good accuracy this morning in that respect. For the climate summary upcoming today, max temperatures have likely already been hit at midnight, and with the rain and subsequent cold front, non diurnal temperature curve was necessary for the daytime period. Cold air advection will be occurring, and will see the leftover slight chance POPs transition to light snow for the northeast highlands heading into the tonight period. Snowfall amounts are generally on the superficial side and relegated to the ridges. Gusty winds expected in the wake of the cold front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM Saturday... A tranquil period under Canadian high pressure brings plenty of sunshine and near normal temperatures to end the weekend. Look for highs in the 40s sunday and lows in the 30s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 AM Saturday... A zonal flow pattern aloft prevails through mid week. Within this zonal flow, there will be a northern stream along the Canadian border which will keep the cold air bottled up in Canada. Our weather into Thursday will be dominated by a southern stream flow of upper disturbances lifting out of the southwestern U.S. and across the Ohio valley and Mid Atlantic states. Models agree with this pattern, although there are some timing and identification differences in the individual disturbances. Thus, we take a broad brush approach with on and off rain showers Monday through Wednesday. We will be in the warm sector with a good southerly flow, bringing temps to well above normal through Wednesday. Have left thunder out for now given all the clouds and showers, limiting instability. Finally, the upper flow amplifies by Thursday and drives a cold front across the area with more rain showers. Behind the front, look for a cool down for the end of work week with temps getting back to near normal by Friday. There maybe some post frontal showers Friday, with snow showers mainly in the mountains. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 605 AM Saturday... Lacking thunder at this point in the line of showers traversing the region and pushing into the mountains. IFR conditions have been hard to come by, so will keep with that trend as rain moves into BKW and EKN. Ceilings will still drop into the MVFR category, and LAMP guidance shows a hint of brief IFR ceilings at BKW early in the forecast, but will stay on the optimistic side with this issuance and keep the ceilings there at 1-2kft. The cold front responsible for the line of showers will also finish moving through the area, and expect wind speeds to increase to 20-30kts veering to the west northwest. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief IFR may occur at EKN and BKW. May need to increase some of the gusts this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 02/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H M M H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H L H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H M M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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