Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 012325 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 700 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MUGGY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER...THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD...AS WE RESIDE WHERE FRONTS COME TO WEAKEN/DIE. THE SOUTHERN RIDGE OCCASIONALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH. SUCH IS THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT. DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO MUCH WITH THE EXPECTED WET VEGETATION. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FAR SW VIRGINIA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PICTURE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS. DID NOT INCLUDE SURFACE FOG YET...BUT THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR. WITH SOME WEAK SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY...DID CONTINUE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEATING BACK UP...AS THE SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH FOR FRIDAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FRIDAY...BUT POPS MOSTLY 20 AND 30 PERCENT. PER WPC MEDIUM COORDINATION...CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER THAN THE GFS ON THE NEXT FRONT. 12Z GFS QUICKLY DRIES OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HOLDING SOME CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DRY MONDAY...EXCEPT AGAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO CREATE A MVFR/VFR STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT IN NORTHEASTERN WV. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS IS LOW HOWEVER. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL PREVENT FOG IN OH/KY AND WESTERN WV...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN PROTECTED VALLEYS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FOG WOULD OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON A STRATUS DECK NOT FORMING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...EXCEPT LOW LATE TONIGHT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF STRATUS OR FOG MAY VARY LATE TONIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...RPY

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