Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 311519 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1119 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST/INTENSIFYING OFF NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATED POPS EASTERN PROGRESSION A TAD QUICKER AS PER RADAR. DID ADJUST QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS A TAD ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES OF OUR SW VA COUNTIES AS PER NEW MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UNDER THE COVER OF DARKNESS LAST NIGHT...CLEARING OCCURRED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. IN CASE YOU MISSED THE PNS FROM THURSDAY EVENING...WITH OCTOBER ENDING RLX HAS TERMINATED ITS FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE AUTUMN. SO THERE WILL BE NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FROM US THIS NOVEMBER WEEKEND. IN OUR FAST PACE PATTERN...CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVER THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN. NO MAJOR CHANGES ON TIMING THE INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...MAYBE A BIT SLOWER REACHING THE WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WILL TRY TO HOLD DOWN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE WEST WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/RAIN. 500 MB LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM WI AT 07Z TO NEAR SDF AT 00Z THEN REACHING SE OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY. COULD SEE A FEW SEPARATE AREAS OF RAIN TODAY...BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES WITH DYNAMICS AHEAD OF...AND NORTH OF THE 500 MB LOW...LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS 500 MB TEMPS DROP. OF COURSE...THE COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB IS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE 500 MB TRACK...WHICH LEAVES A 2 TO 3C GRADIENT IN 850 MB TEMP JUST SW OF HTS-CRW OVERNIGHT. IN THERE WAS ANY TREND IN THE AMERICAN MODELS OVERNIGHT...MAYBE A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARD WARMER ALOFT FROM HTS-CRW-BKW. DID INCREASE LOW TEMPERATURE A DEGREE OR SO FROM CRW TO BKW. HAVE THE FIRST FLAKES IN OUR CWA OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF DICKENSON COUNTY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY- THIS FRIDAY EVENING. WILL ALSO INCREASE THE WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. DID INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON COUNTIES TO AROUND 4 INCHES BY DAWN. ALSO ADDED AN INCH OR LESS OVER HILLTOPS IN INTERIOR NE KY. NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE COUNTIES UNDER OUR WINTER HEADLINES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MID/UPPER SUPPORT SET UP THE BURST OF SNOW 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY...COULD SEE MORE SNOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE HEADLINE COUNTIES...BEFORE THE COLD POOL DRAINS AWAY. OUR SNOW AMOUNTS NOT THAT MUCH LESS IN RALEIGH COUNTY...BUT OF COURSE...THERE IS A HIGHER SNOW CRITERIA SET THERE FOR HEADLINES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AS IT GRADUALLY GETS OVERPOWERED AND ABSORBED INTO A LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS HAPPENS PRECIP OVER THE CWA WILL BECOME MORE UPSLOPE TYPE AND NW FLOW MOVE IN. THE LOWLANDS WILL GRADUALLY WARM SATURDAY CHANGING SNOW BACK TO RAIN....HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE A RATHER RAW DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER UP. DEPENDING JUST HOW LONG MOISTURE HANGS ON...THE WV LOWLANDS MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP QUICKLY WINDS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AT MID AND HIGH ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED MOSGUIDE FOR HIGHS...AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN CHANGE WAS A TOUCH COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT. USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL CHANGES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE...WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES UP ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME... TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A RAIN EVENT. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MORNING UPDATE... DID MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS FOR VSBY AND CIGS EARLY ON. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK TIL NEXT ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SOME LOCAL MVFR IN VALLEY FOG DID FORM OVER SOUTHERN WV FOR THE PREDAWN. SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE MAY LINGER PAST 12Z AS CLOUDS INCREASE. CEILINGS AT 4 TO 7 THSD FT INCREASING W TO E 12Z TO 15Z TODAY. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES 12Z TO 15Z...SPREADING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER TRI STATE AROUND HTS INCLUDING NE KY AND SE OHIO 18Z TO 21Z AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES...AHEAD OF STRONG 500 MB LOW. WITH THIS SUPPORT DROPPING SE THROUGH SOUTHERN WV...TRIED TO BE SLOW LOWERING CONDITIONS FURTHER N...INCLUDING VCNTY CKB AND NORTH CENTRAL WV. CEILINGS LOWERING INTO 1 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN RAIN...BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW MAINLY S OF A HTS-CRW LINE BY 03Z AND MOSTLY SNOW BY 03Z OVER DICKENSON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES IN SW VA UNDER THE COOL POOL ALOFT. HARD TO DETERMINE IF BKW WILL GO TO ALL SNOW OR STAY MIX...WITH COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES PASSING TO ITS SOUTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SE INTO THE BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 00Z TO 06Z. IN CONTRAST...WINDS NEAR SURFACE REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL WV INCLUDING CKB THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING NORTH NEAR 10 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY. HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW CEILINGS DROP FROM 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE DYNAMICS...LIKE PKB TO CKB CORRIDOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY MAY VARY. BKW MAY STAY MIXTURE RATHER THAN ALL SNOW BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR IN RAIN/SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING AROUND EKN AND BKW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ033-034. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...JS/KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JS/KTB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.