Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301741 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 141 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts through tonight, followed by a cold front late tonight into Friday. High pressure prevails Sunday. Next system arrives Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 140 PM Thursday... On the latest weather map, an area of low pressure was located over the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a warm front extending east across West Virginia to the southeast Atlantic coast. A cold front extends south into the Gulf of Mexico. The warm front is resulting in a few showers and storms across portions of Ohio and West Virginia at this time. The warm front should lift northeast tonight as the low pressure system moves to the Great Lakes by Friday morning. In addition, the cold front is expected to push into our western counties. SPC has the western half of our forecast area in marginal risk with our much of our Kentucky counties in slight risk. Expect the showers and storms associated with the warm front to life northeast with the warm front. Showers and storms should then spread into our region from the west. Expect the coverage with these storms to increase after midnight. Models indicate sufficient wind shear will be in place across our southeast Ohio counties this evening. However, instability will be marginal with mixed layer CAPE values generally at or below 1000 J/KG. The storms associated with the cold front could be severe to our west. However, the storms should be weakening by the time they push into our western counties. Storms could still be quite strong to even marginally severe into tonight. In addition, any of the stronger storms could produce heavy rainfall. Do not expect any water issues. However, we will have to keep an eye out for any storms that move across the same areas for potential water issues. The storms should then overspread the remainder of the region after sunrise on Friday. The upper level low, associated with the surface feature, will push east during the day, keeping unsettled weather in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday... A strong system exits the area Friday though not before squeezing out at least a 1/2" of QPE area wide. A few wrap around showers linger into Saturday. Otherwise high pressure builds through Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM Thursday... The next system approaches Monday and crosses late Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure builds again Wednesday. The active weather pattern continues with no end in sight. A little hesitant to add details as run to run consistency is poor on low pressure tracks, but good on general pattern recognition. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Thursday... With the exception of MVFR conditions along the eastern slope of the mountain and near some isolated storms across our northern counties, VFR conditions are common across the remainder of the area. More widespread showers and storms will begin moving in late tonight with MVFR to IFR visibilities likely. Expect conditions to deteriorate from the west after 08 UTC. Wind will generally be gusty from the SE to S through 14 UTC Friday before becoming southwesterly. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through 06 UTC, then moderate afterwards. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms this evening into Friday may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JSH

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