Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 280225 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1025 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1030PM UPDATE... LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF HTS IS CURRENTLY FALLING APART AT THIS HOUR...AND HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS FOR THAT PARTICULAR LOCATION. WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ABOVE 3KFT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME CANNOT BE COUNTED OUT THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL OHIO...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT CARRY PREVAILING TSRA HOWEVER AND HAVE OPTIMISTIC TAFS GOING FORWARD. LATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ONLY IFR IN THE TAFS IS FOR EKN. CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS. .AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.