Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 211032
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
632 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
Low pressure and its associated cold front exit east of the mountains
through this morning. Upper level system keeps showers going into
the start of the weekend. Re- enforcing cold front Sunday Night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...
An elongated low pressure system will slowly move east across the
eastern mountains today. An associated cold front will push most
of the light rain east of the mountains, but additional rain or
drizzle could continue behind the front.
Continue with high chance PoPs across the area exiting the eastern
mountains by this evening. Abundant clouds will limit afternoon instability
for isolated thunderstorms or none.
Still not real excited about these reaching severe limits, but
cannot rule out and isolated bowing segment with damaging winds
Flow becomes northerly today with occasional gusts. Low stratus
and morning drizzle/rain linger through much of the morning. This
will bring cold and dry airmass to produce below normal
temperatures through tonight.
Went closer to the blend of models for temperatures through the
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Friday...
High pressure and ridging aloft starts to build into the region by
Saturday afternoon as upper trough/low pulls out to the east.
Looks like we have the coolest day yet thus far this Autumn as
highs will likely not reach 40 across the mountains and mid 50s in
the Lowlands. Still looking at the possibility of a few snow
flakes across the higher elevations through the morning hours.
Warm advection will kick in on Sunday as NW flow switches to the
SE and with plenty of sunshine expected we will likely see high
temperatures rebound back into the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 AM Friday...
After a moisture starved weak cold front passes overnight on
Sunday, high pressure quickly takes over. This will bring dry
weather with near average temps through at least mid week. From
there, operational and ensemble guidance is in pretty good
agreement in bringing another frontal system through the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. For now have only went with low
chance PoP with this feature. Guidance agrees at this time that
the track of the low will be well to our north, and with us being
near the tail end of a trailing cold front, any moisture will be
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 630 AM Friday...
Elongated sfc low pressure system exits to our northeast by mid
morning. Meanwhile, Doppler radar shows areas of rain showers
moving northeast over WV. These showers will produce brief
periods of IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities through at least
mid morning. MVFR/IFR low stratus could remain affecting some
sites through noon.
An associated cold front extends southwest into eastern KY. The
actual front remains quasi stationary over WV this morning. Behind
the front, gusty northwest winds will prevail through this
afternoon, before becoming north this afternoon and westerly on
Areas of light rain showers or drizzle will prevail this afternoon
and evening. Visibilities will improve to 6 miles or better by midday
and afternoon, but the stratus will struggle to climb above 1000
feet across the lowlands.
Widespread areas of dense IFR fog possible Saturday and Sunday
morning from 06Z to 13Z timeframe.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in heavier showers. Timing of
frontal passage and drop into IFR rain/stratus may very...as well
as timing of recovery today.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR may linger in low stratus in the mountains into Saturday.
IFR dense fog expected the mornings of Saturday and Sunday.
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