Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211454 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1054 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front slowly drifts northeast across Central West Virginia this morning. A cold front crosses from the west tonight. High pressure crosses through Monday night, then low pressure and unsettled conditions for the remainder of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1040 AM Sunday... Made some tweaks to POP timing and coverage today into tonight. Tried to put in a break in likely POPs between the current rain associated with the nearly stationary boundary which should slowly shift east today into tonight and the cold front to our west. So far rainfall amounts have generally been one to two tenths. However there have been some amounts topping a quarter of an inch in some higher reflectivity areas that are a bit more convective. All in all, still doing OK rain-wise and no changes planned to current watch which remains across most prone area. Also adjusted max temps today, bumping up across the NE where there is still some sunshine. As of 335 AM Sunday... A cold front will slowly pass through the region today through tonight. Showers and storms out ahead of the front will be entering the Ohio Valley around dawn. Decided not to make any changes to the Flash Flood Watch at this time, but was considering extending it another row of counties northward. Forecast soundings indicate PWATs around 1.75" which is about 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. Also, efficient rain processes with deep warm cloud depth has raised concern. However, Flash Flood guidance values are a bit higher across the north, so have decided to hold off with the expansion of the watch. An isolated incident, especially in poor drainage areas will certainly be possible though. Generally we are looking at a moderate to heavy rainfall for the entire area with 1 to 2 inches of QPF expected. The severe thunderstorm threat is very low to basically nonexistent today, but embedded thunderstorms will produce localized heavy downpours. Conditions will improve later tonight from west to east with high pressure moving in behind the front. Depending on how much clearing we see, areas of dense valley fog will be possible early Monday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Saturday... The cold front will be crossing the eastern mountains with some lingering rain showers Monday morning. The timing of the cold front is unfavorable from diurnal heating and pwats around 1 inch, rainfall should be light. Brief high pressure brings dry and cool conditions Monday night into early Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 305 PM Saturday... The chances for rain return Wednesday with the next complex low pressure system. There are good chances for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms with enough instability and pwats around 1.7 inches. Temperatures will return to a more seasonable level during this period. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 645 AM Sunday... A cold front will bring widespread heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms to the region today. This will cause restrictions at all forecast sites, with generally VFR holding on the longest across the Northeast portion of West Virginia. Elsewhere, the onset of MVFR to IFR conditions will begin early this morning and last into this evening. Conditions will start to improve later tonight as high pressure starts to push in, but any clearing in the skies will lead to the development of valley fog early Monday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Conditions will vary in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Valley fog possible early Monday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H L H L M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L H M M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L M M L AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR fog and stratus may linger into the morning hours on Monday. Widespread valley fog is looking more and more likely late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005-013-024>026- 033-034-515-516. OH...None. KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ105. VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.