Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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594 FXUS61 KRLX 012149 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 549 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers/storms continue ahead of a cold front this evening. The front crosses tonight. Some storms could be strong to severe, along with the potential for localized flooding. Dry Wednesday onward.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 545 PM Tuesday... Showers and thunderstorms continue across the region in advance of/along a surface cold front that is beginning to slowly progress through the northwest portion of the forecast area INVOF the Ohio River. Extensive cloud cover across the area has largely muted the severe threat, with any convective activity at this point primarily limited to Charleston south/east. Gusty winds are possible with thunderstorms across the south over the next hour or two, but not anticipating anything of the severe variety. The bigger story has been the heavy rain across portions of the area, with 1-3"+ from the Charleston metro west into portions of northeast Kentucky and far southern Ohio. This has resulted in flash flooding across the aforementioned area. The chance for high water issues further south/east remains, but should be more isolated given a slightly faster progression of activity now. Showers/storms will gradually become more confined to the higher terrain throughout the evening, with the chance for showers lingering there through much of the night. Minor tweaks to the forecast were made in terms of updated PoPs, decreased chances for thunder across northern portions of the CWA, along with the mention of heavy rain into the forecast throughout the evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 215 PM Tuesday... Key Points: * Cold front crosses later today into tonight. * Heavy rain could lead to localized flooding. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to sprout up across the area as a cold front slowly approaches from the west this morning. Activity then continues as the front slides towards the Ohio River later today and then continues east across the area tonight. Around 1.75 to 2 inches of precipitable water should continue to support moderate to heavy rain showers ahead of and along the front. Excessive rainfall could prompt some localized flooding, particularly in areas that were impacted by heavy rain earlier today. Some strong storms could also develop in the warm, moist, and unstable environment present this afternoon and evening, with potential for isolated severe storms to produce locally damaging winds. Showers and storms taper off behind the front tonight, then high pressure begins to creep in from the southwest and allows drier conditions to return to the majority of the area on Wednesday. That being said, residual moisture could sustain a few showers along the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Tuesday... Key Point: * High pressure brings drier conditions for the second half of the work week. While a weak shortwave may pass overhead, surface high pressure is expected to support drier conditions Wednesday night into Thursday morning. An upper ridge then starts to expand east across the area while high pressure remains present at the surface and allows relatively benign weather to persist through the end of the work week. Temperatures will steadily increase beneath the building ridge, with hot conditions taking hold just in time for the Independence Day holiday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 PM Tuesday... Key Points: * Hot and humid over the weekend. * Becoming more active again next week. Expect hot and increasingly humid conditions this weekend, with chances of precipitation returning as the upper ridge begins to relinquish control next week. Thereafter, the weather pattern remains more active as a front slowly approaches from the northwest while another system travels up the Atlantic Coast during the new work week. While precipitation chances have been introduced as early as Sunday afternoon, model solutions differ with respect to the timing of the front and breakdown of the ridge. More robust ridging could sustain drier conditions through the end of the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Tuesday... MVFR to IFR ceilings and periodic visibility restrictions remain possible in heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and low clouds ahead of a cold front. This front will slowly cross the area later today, then exit to the east overnight. Brief improvement may be possible as precipitation tapers off behind the front, then conditions are likely to deteriorate to IFR or worse in fog and low stratus overnight. Area wide VFR returns once any fog dissipates Wednesday morning. Mainly light and variable winds are expected through the TAF period, though locally strong gusts may occur in storms this afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration of showers/storms today, and timing and extent of fog tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H L M H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H M L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H M M H H L M M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions possible in valley fog each morning through Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...20/GW NEAR TERM...20/GW SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM...20 AVIATION...20