Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 052353 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 753 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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745 PM UPDATE...HIGH RES MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION AND IS SLOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. DID CUT POPS BACK SOME ACROSS THE FAR WEST...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS HAVE THE BROAD AND COLD UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE...ROTATING EASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TONIGHT...THEN LIFTING ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP MOST SHOWERS CONFINED TO EASTERN WV. ENOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WESTERN WV BEHIND THE UPPER LOW ON ON FRIDAY TO BRING SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TRENDS IN THE HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIP ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW KEEP IT MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS ONLY POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES LEFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPON EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW...A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY INCREASES BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE AIRMASS...AND THE MORNING SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS GENERAL STORMS CREEPING BACK INTO THE LOWLAND AREAS WITH THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM. FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THINK WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL OF THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. KEEP THESE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE WEEKEND/START OF WORKWEEK. HOWEVER...THIS DOES LITTLE TO CHANGE THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. ONCE AGAIN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER SOGGY WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AREA OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS WV. MIX OF MVFR AND IFR EXPECTED IN THIS...BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING. EASTERN SITES SHOULD HAVE IFR CEILINGS TAKE OVER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL DENSE FOG FORMATION WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME RAIN THIS EVENING...BUT SOME FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL WHICH COULD HOLD THE FOG OFF. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW...WITH MVFR LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY. ALSO COULD GET SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/06/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M L L L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL COULD CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...JB AVIATION...MZ

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