-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231608
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1208 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of Cindy and a cold front to provide rounds of heavy
rain through tonight. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper
level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1115 AM Friday...
Updated POPS and clouds to account for mid level dry slot and
breaks in the clouds over NE Ky and central/northeast WV this
morning. Looking for main organized band of heavy convection,
associated with Cindy and a cold front that will drop
southeastward into the area, first across southeast OH and
northwest WV and then shifting southeastward with the system
later this afternoon and tonight. Inserted mention of heavy
rain. Otherwise, clouds will tend fill in with heating this
afternoon. Flash flood watch continues.

As of 600 AM Friday...

Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary attm.

As of 345 AM Friday...

Deep southwest flow will bring moisture associated with tropical
depression Cindy to the area through tonight. Models show high
dewpoints...in the upper 60s...and pwats reaching 2 inches
suggest showers and storms could produce heavy rain. Available
moisture, diurnal heating, deep layered shear exceeding 50 knots
and sfc CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg mainly along the OH
River suggest some storms could produce damaging winds and
periods of heavy rain. The freezing level is about 15 kft.
Therefore the threat for large hail is low.

SPC have portions of southeast OH and WV and northeast KY in a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A flash
flood watch is in effect for the entire CWA until 6 AM Saturday.

Tonight, the remaining circulation associated with Cindy will be
passing over the forecast area. Meanwhile, a cold front will push
east reinforcing instability and moisture. Very heavy rain is more
likely tonight.

Total QPF of near one inch is forecast across southeast OH, and
decrease towards the east. Tonight, the rainfall axis shifts to
the east diagonally across central WV with a QPF maxima of 2
inches across northeast KY, and 1 to 1.5 inches elsewhere.

Overall, in the next 24 hours can expect a widespread 1.5 to 3
inches with locally heavy amounts through tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Saturday brings light west to northwest flow in the wake of the
exiting cold front, and remnants of once tropical storm Cindy.
Showers lingering in the mountains, with the help of the
upslope flow, first thing Saturday morning, will diminish
during the morning hours, an end altogether by late afternoon.
Low level moisture will be steadily eradicated from west to
east.

The exodus of the rain first thing Saturday morning will allow
any flood waters to recede on Saturday, with the exception of
some larger streams, and mainstem rivers.

The remainder of the period will feature a long wave upper level
trough in the eastern United States, with a long wave ridge over
the Rocky mountains. This will bring cooler and less humid
weather, giving the area the opportunity to further dry out.

A series of upper level troughs will rotate through the long
wave trough during this period. The first will cross the Great
Lakes early Sunday, leaving the forecast area on the
anticyclonic shear side of the upper level jet, resulting in a
dry day. The second will cross Sunday night and then the third
Monday night. That third one will bring a mainly diurnally
driven chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and evening across the northern half of the forecast area. This
precipitation will largely be scattered and light.

Temperatures close to central guidance, a little below MOS for
highs on Saturday, otherwise close, and generally falling below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

The long wave upper level trough, still over the eastern United
States on Tuesday, lifts out Wednesday, while the upper level
ridge over the Rocky mountains flattens. The exodus of the
trough is marked by one last embedded short wave trough moving
through first thing Tuesday morning. The chance for mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
will depend upon the speed of the exodus of this trough, with a
quick demise at sunset if not earlier. This will lead to a
clear, calm and cool radiative night Tuesday night, as a large
surface high pressure system crosses.

Wednesday will be a nice day as the high moves off to the east,
giving way to a light return southerly flow.

After a dry but not as cool Wednesday night, forecast
uncertainty increases Thursday and Friday, in the zonal upper
level flow. Models bring a weak upper level short wave trough
north of the area Thursday, but disagree on weather it can
summon enough moisture in the low level southerly return flow,
to generate precipitation.

Another upper level trough approaches from the west on Friday,
bringing in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Central guidance temperatures accepted, except to cool the
valleys a bit beneath high pressure Wednesday morning. A warming
trend ensues on highs and lows Wednesday through Thursday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
16Z Friday thru 12Z Saturday...
As of 1140 AM Friday...

Very unsettled period with remnants of Cindy and a cold front coming
across the area this afternoon and tonight. Look for scattered
diurnal thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, this afternoon
well ahead of the system. The organized band of heavy rain and
storms, which could also produce strong and gusty winds, will
first affect southeast Ohio and northwest West Virginia early to
mid afternoon, then progress southeastward across the remainder
of the area later this afternoon and much of tonight. However,
most of the precip with Cindy/cold front will exit the
mountains by 12Z Saturday.

Generally, expect MVFR ceilings, outside of the scattered
afternoon convection ahead of the main band this afternoon.
Expect MVFR conditions going to IFR in the main band as it
shifts southeast across the area, with general timing mentioned
above. Post precip IFR ceilings will continue behind the cold
front/Cindy tonight for about 3 to 5 hours. After 06Z slowly
improving to VFR ceilings from northwest to southeast, reaching
the I79 corridor by 12Z Saturday.

Southwest winds 10-20 kts and gusty this afternoon, diminishing
this evening with loss if heating, then shifting to west to
northwest 5 to 10 KTS behind the front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of MVFR/IFR conditions
may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in river valley fog Saturday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV