Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180551 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 151 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND CENTRAL WV...WHILE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED AREAS OF FOG IN WEATHER GRIDS AS WELL AS IN SKY GRIDS. REST OF FORECASTS REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... VERY QUIET PATTERN WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO BE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW CREEPING NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TO THE SOUTH GETS PUSHED EAST AND OFFSHORE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL BY MONDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MODIS FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGES ALREADY SHOWING RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF OUR CWA...AND SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT 03Z. DOPPLER VAD WIND PROFILER INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET SUGGESTING MARGINAL WIND CONDITIONS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. HOWEVER...BELIEVE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY DECOUPLE AND MODELS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOW 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH IFR DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE LOWLAND SITES INCLUDING EKN...AND IFR LOW STRATUS AT BKW OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT FROM 13-14Z LEADING TO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO SFC OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES AND MODELS SOLUTIONS CONFIDENCE RUNS HIGH ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING AROUND 18-21Z. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MID CLOUD FORMATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO ANOTHER CLOUD VERSUS FOG ISSUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. COULD NOT EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN 06Z TO 12Z IN THE SOUTH OR MOUNTAIN WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE TURNING OF SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLOUDS AND LESS FOG FOR THE 06Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME WOULD BE POSSIBLE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 09/18/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L M H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/JR NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...ARJ

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