Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231608 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1208 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Remnants of Cindy and a cold front to provide rounds of heavy rain through tonight. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1115 AM Friday... Updated POPS and clouds to account for mid level dry slot and breaks in the clouds over NE Ky and central/northeast WV this morning. Looking for main organized band of heavy convection, associated with Cindy and a cold front that will drop southeastward into the area, first across southeast OH and northwest WV and then shifting southeastward with the system later this afternoon and tonight. Inserted mention of heavy rain. Otherwise, clouds will tend fill in with heating this afternoon. Flash flood watch continues. As of 600 AM Friday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary attm. As of 345 AM Friday... Deep southwest flow will bring moisture associated with tropical depression Cindy to the area through tonight. Models show high dewpoints...in the upper 60s...and pwats reaching 2 inches suggest showers and storms could produce heavy rain. Available moisture, diurnal heating, deep layered shear exceeding 50 knots and sfc CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg mainly along the OH River suggest some storms could produce damaging winds and periods of heavy rain. The freezing level is about 15 kft. Therefore the threat for large hail is low. SPC have portions of southeast OH and WV and northeast KY in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A flash flood watch is in effect for the entire CWA until 6 AM Saturday. Tonight, the remaining circulation associated with Cindy will be passing over the forecast area. Meanwhile, a cold front will push east reinforcing instability and moisture. Very heavy rain is more likely tonight. Total QPF of near one inch is forecast across southeast OH, and decrease towards the east. Tonight, the rainfall axis shifts to the east diagonally across central WV with a QPF maxima of 2 inches across northeast KY, and 1 to 1.5 inches elsewhere. Overall, in the next 24 hours can expect a widespread 1.5 to 3 inches with locally heavy amounts through tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Friday... Saturday brings light west to northwest flow in the wake of the exiting cold front, and remnants of once tropical storm Cindy. Showers lingering in the mountains, with the help of the upslope flow, first thing Saturday morning, will diminish during the morning hours, an end altogether by late afternoon. Low level moisture will be steadily eradicated from west to east. The exodus of the rain first thing Saturday morning will allow any flood waters to recede on Saturday, with the exception of some larger streams, and mainstem rivers. The remainder of the period will feature a long wave upper level trough in the eastern United States, with a long wave ridge over the Rocky mountains. This will bring cooler and less humid weather, giving the area the opportunity to further dry out. A series of upper level troughs will rotate through the long wave trough during this period. The first will cross the Great Lakes early Sunday, leaving the forecast area on the anticyclonic shear side of the upper level jet, resulting in a dry day. The second will cross Sunday night and then the third Monday night. That third one will bring a mainly diurnally driven chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening across the northern half of the forecast area. This precipitation will largely be scattered and light. Temperatures close to central guidance, a little below MOS for highs on Saturday, otherwise close, and generally falling below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 AM Friday... The long wave upper level trough, still over the eastern United States on Tuesday, lifts out Wednesday, while the upper level ridge over the Rocky mountains flattens. The exodus of the trough is marked by one last embedded short wave trough moving through first thing Tuesday morning. The chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon will depend upon the speed of the exodus of this trough, with a quick demise at sunset if not earlier. This will lead to a clear, calm and cool radiative night Tuesday night, as a large surface high pressure system crosses. Wednesday will be a nice day as the high moves off to the east, giving way to a light return southerly flow. After a dry but not as cool Wednesday night, forecast uncertainty increases Thursday and Friday, in the zonal upper level flow. Models bring a weak upper level short wave trough north of the area Thursday, but disagree on weather it can summon enough moisture in the low level southerly return flow, to generate precipitation. Another upper level trough approaches from the west on Friday, bringing in a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Central guidance temperatures accepted, except to cool the valleys a bit beneath high pressure Wednesday morning. A warming trend ensues on highs and lows Wednesday through Thursday night. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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16Z Friday thru 12Z Saturday... As of 1140 AM Friday... Very unsettled period with remnants of Cindy and a cold front coming across the area this afternoon and tonight. Look for scattered diurnal thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, this afternoon well ahead of the system. The organized band of heavy rain and storms, which could also produce strong and gusty winds, will first affect southeast Ohio and northwest West Virginia early to mid afternoon, then progress southeastward across the remainder of the area later this afternoon and much of tonight. However, most of the precip with Cindy/cold front will exit the mountains by 12Z Saturday. Generally, expect MVFR ceilings, outside of the scattered afternoon convection ahead of the main band this afternoon. Expect MVFR conditions going to IFR in the main band as it shifts southeast across the area, with general timing mentioned above. Post precip IFR ceilings will continue behind the cold front/Cindy tonight for about 3 to 5 hours. After 06Z slowly improving to VFR ceilings from northwest to southeast, reaching the I79 corridor by 12Z Saturday. Southwest winds 10-20 kts and gusty this afternoon, diminishing this evening with loss if heating, then shifting to west to northwest 5 to 10 KTS behind the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of MVFR/IFR conditions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H M M H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H M H M L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog Saturday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JMV

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