Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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699 FXUS61 KRLX 221141 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 641 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits east first thing this morning. High pressure builds in tonight, and holds on through Friday. An cold front crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 640 AM Wednesday... Front just exiting the forecast area. Slowed clearing a bit later today into this evening. As of 325 AM Wednesday... A cold front, along with a narrow band of light rain right along and immediately behind it, was moving east across the area overnight. Just reaching the Ohio River as 3 AM approached, this band will be in the mountains by dawn, and evolve into post frontal upslope showers on the low level northwest flow that ensues behind the front. It will also be dawn before colder air changes the precipitation over to snow in the mountains, with up to a half an inch over the higher windward terrain after daybreak this morning. One limiting factor will be lack of favored crystal growth and even crystal presence temperatures, with moisture and colder air remaining shallow even well behind the front. The low inversion, near h85, persists through today, and then lowers even farther tonight as a subsidence inversion, as high pressure builds in. This brings into question timing of the breaking up of the stratocu later today and tonight. Temperatures fall behind the front early this morning, and then recover little today. Kept forecast highs below guidance given the inversion and weak late November insulation. Lows tonight are close to guidance, which is lower than previous in the mountains. Valley temperatures will fall below ridgetop temperatures overnight where it clears.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 325 AM Wednesday... No significant changes necessary to the short term period. High pressure, with cooler, but dry weather will take hold for Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with temperatures topping out in the 40s to 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 AM Wednesday... Another progressive system will affect the region over the weekend. Rain and snow showers are expected to develop, particularly across the north, as a cold front sweeps across the region. After a brief lull in the precipitation later in the day Saturday and Saturday night, outside of upslope rain and snow showers across the mountains, a reinforcing short wave will bring another round of precipitation for Sunday, along with an additional shot of cooler air. Light accumulations are expected across the mountainous counties. Dry and cool weather for the start of next week, with moderating temperatures towards mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 105 AM Wednesday... A cold front was just exiting the WV mountains as 12Z approached, and an MVFR stratocu deck was filling in behind it. EKN may go IFR for a time later this morning into this afternoon. Improvement will take place this afternoon over most of the lowlands, and the southern WV mountains, as this deck lifts and scatters out. Improvement will take place tonight in and near the northern WV mountains, as the deck scatters out. A subsidence inversion will be lowering tonight so, if ceilings persist, they will lower, and may go IFR. Gusty northwest surface winds will diminish later this morning, and become calm tonight, as high pressure builds across the area. Moderate northwest flow aloft this morning will become light north this afternoon, and then light west overnight tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings may go IFR in northeast WV /CKB and EKN/ for a time this morning. Timing of lifting and break up of MVFR stratocu this afternoon and evening could vary. BKW and EKN ceilings could drop to near IFR tonight if the clouds do not break up. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H M M M H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M L M M H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L L H H L M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M H H M H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H H M M L L AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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