Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280535 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1235 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BRIEFLY STALLING ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY. DRIER...COLDER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN TN AND KY MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WV. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVERNIGHT THERE. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 630 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POP AND SKY GRIDS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. THUS...SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION BY JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE AFTER SEEING RADAR RETURNS FOR PRECIPITATION TO ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MOST OF WEST VIRGINIA IS BASKING IN THE SUN AT THE MOMENT...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND TURNS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT USHERING WAVES OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. LUCKILY...MOST MODEL SIGNALS INDICATE THAT TOTAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE BOOSTED THE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO NOTCHED UP THE WINDS IN SE OH PER HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DRIES OUT SUN NT...AS A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...ORIGINATING FROM THE EXTREME SWRN CONUS THIS MORNING...MOVES ON THROUGH. HUNG ON TO A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MON...ALTHOUGH MOST OF IT SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE...AS MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOW BENEATH FLAT W TO SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A FLAT WAVE ALSO BRUSHES BY JUST TO THE SE. MON NT DOES NOT BRING MUCH CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...OR ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THAT CROSSES ON TUE...AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS HANGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MON NT INTO TUE MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL S/W IS THE FIRST FEATURE COMING OF A NEW LARGE S/W TROUGH DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE WRN CONUS AGAIN...AND BRINGS IN COLDER...DRIER AIR AS IT PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...THE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BRING A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION TUE EVEN BACK INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AS THE COLDER AIR BECOMES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH IN LOWER LAYERS. THERE MAY BE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WRN AND NRN EDGES OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV MON MORNING. MON NT INTO TUE MORNING IS THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES GET BELOW FREEZING BEFORE WE COMPLETELY LOSE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THIS OCCURS IN A NARROW SW TO NE ORIENTED SLIVER THROUGH CENTRAL WV...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE A BIT OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE. MODELS RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION SUN NT THROUGH TUE. BLENDED IN NAM...MET AND GFS-BASED MOS FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCST BY TUE BUT OVERALL THE MODELS APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE AREA THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 850MB TEMP TROUGH ENTERING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH THIS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DOES LOOK RATHER LIMITED...SO COULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLAKES DRIFTING THROUGH THE AIR AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR A BULK OF THE LONG TERM BEFORE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A POOR CONSISTENCY RECORD THIS SEASON...SO STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF POPS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST SITES BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ` RADAR IMAGES SHOWING AN AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN TN AND KY MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO AFFECT BKW AROUND 08Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHEAST OH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE OH RIVER TO AFFECT PKB AND HTS AROUND 11Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND POSSIBLY STALL ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SCENARIO COULD KEEP IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES LONGER...PERHAPS THROUGH 21Z. SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER 21Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LINGER IN IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 12/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EST 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/JW NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/JW SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ

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