Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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309 FXUS61 KRLX 251830 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 130 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the area tonight, but is shunted back by a wave passing to the south overnight into Monday. The high builds back in Monday night. Next system Wednesday / Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Sunday... The flood watch, curtailed to 1 PM today earlier, was allowed to expire, as the rain is gone, and the threat for new flooding, other than on the Ohio River, is not expected. High pressure builds toward the area tonight, with much drier air. Upper level flow remaining west to southwest, in the wake of the short wave trough driving a cold front through the area this afternoon, and ahead of another short wave approaching from the west, will allow a surface wave to get close enough overnight into Monday, to bring clouds, mostly mid and high, into the area, along with the chance for light rain far southeast portions of the area. That wave exits Monday afternoon, allowing the high to build back into the area, with increasing sunshine from the west. Used MOS and a near term guidance blend, along with previous, for temperatures and dew points. This shrinks the diurnal range a little, on account of the cloud cover associated with the wave passing south of the area early Monday. Dew points for Monday afternoon were lowered from the previous forecast, in the drier air.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 AM Sunday... Some light rain showers my skirt our SW VA counties Monday morning as a wave develops along the front SE of the area. Otherwise, early next week will provide a brief respite from the very wet weather of late. Sunshine and continued mild weather will be a welcome sign indeed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM Sunday... The lull in the active weather will be short lived as another wet system arrives for mid to late week. Rainfall amounts with this system will have to be monitored for a renewed flooding threat. Much colder air will move in behind this system with mountain snow showers expected Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Sunday... A cold front approaching the mountains early this afternoon will be through the mountains by mid afternoon. MVFR stratocu is still possible east of the Ohio River through mid afternoon, and a shower can occur in and near the mountains. VFR conditions are expected late this afternoon into tonight. MVFR stratocu may return in and near the mountains overnight into Monday morning, as upslope flow increase a little. Clouds associated with low pressure passing south of the area Monday morning, along with the arrival of very dry air, will, for the most part, preclude fog formation overnight. Guidance was showing some fog toward morning, but only in the central and southern mountains, where a mid to high cloud deck will be thickest, so that was not coded up. MVFR fog with a bit of stratus-fractus may show up at CRW and / or PKB before dawn Monday. Any of this will quickly dissipate after daybreak. MVFR stratocu in the mountains should be gone by late morning, with an otherwise VFR Monday on tap. Gusty west surface flow behind the cold front this afternoon will diminish tonight, and veer to light north by Monday morning. Moderate west flow aloft will become light northwest tonight, and then light northwest on Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will vary this afternoon. Timing of MVFR stratocu may vary this afternoon, and again late overnight into Monday morning. Some valley fog could develop tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible in dense fog Tuesday morning, and in rain Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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