Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230246 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1046 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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03Z UPDATE... HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SOME PRECIPITATION HAS HELD ON IN THE TRISTATE AND DOWN INTO MINGO COUNTY. PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTH...HOWEVER...RAIN RATES SEEM LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. TWEAKED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIPPLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA...HOWEVER...EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH PWATS FINALLY LOWERING BELOW 2 INCHES. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN INCREASE TOMORROW WITH A FEW IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. OLD BELOW... FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL RIDES THROUGH 05Z. ON GOING FLASH FLOODING IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN WV...PARTICULARLLY IN THE TRISTATE AREA. A RIDGE IS JUST TO THE EAST BUT RIPPLES OF VORTICITY ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...ANY DISTURBANCE IS ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. FORTUNATELY....MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DOWN OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DRIER WX REGIME BEGINS TO SET IN AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. IT WILL BE WARM...BUT NOT HOT AS THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT REMAINS WELL W OF THE REGION. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER MUGGY THOUGH...TYPICAL DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. HIGH PRESSURE...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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03Z UPDATE...WORKED TO TIME PRECIPITATION A BIT BETTER AND TO RAISE THE CEILINGS A BIT TO BE A BIT MORE REPRESENTATIVE. STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. AS DAWN APPROACHES...SOME SITES WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR WITH FOG DEVELOPING IN THE LIGHT FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. OLD BELOW... HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CREATE IFR CONDITIONS FOR ANY SITE CONVECTION NEARS. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE...OF AND ON...AT LEAST THROUGH 04Z. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXTENT OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATIONS OF PRECIPITATION AND FOG. FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES WITH CALM TO LIGHT FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION AND TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXTENT AND TIMING MAY BE QUESTIONABLE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/23/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M M M L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M L M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H L L L H EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H L L L L L M L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H M M M M H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LS NEAR TERM...LS SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...LS

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