Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010204 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1001 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS TO BETTER HANDLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE...HOWEVER WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE JUST A BIT BETTER LLVL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ALONG WITH A HINT OF SFC CONVERGENCE PER LATEST NAM12 RUN. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL BACK JUST A BIT DURING THE DAY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W TROUGH WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z TUE AND ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OUT OF THE WEST AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN BY 18Z TUE AND ACROSS NW OHIO BY 00Z WED. STILL APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ENTERING INTO THE NW ZONES AROUND 15Z-18Z...NEAR AND/OR CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND ALONG/EAST OF A CKB-CRW LINE BY 00Z WED. STRONGER STORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD COME ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES EXISTS PRIOR TO THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING...AFTER WHICH STORM MOTION WILL VEER MORE STRAIGHT EASTERLY WITH THE LINE SPEEDING UP IN ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME. AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH S/W AXIS CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z WED WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ENDING AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT 06Z WED. ALSO TRAILED A SECONDARY AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WASHES OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD ON WED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE...CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...ONCE EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS BURNS OFF MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP-UP SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS. INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH. BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC SOLUTION. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND A STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO...AT WHAT LEVEL. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING...NOT SURE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE ABLE TO FORM. SO INSTEAD...OPTED FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH SOME IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. IF TOO MUCH CLEARING OCCURS...DENSER FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF FOG THERE. FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING A VFR CUMULUS DECK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...HIGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXTEND AND HEIGHT OF STRATUS DECK COULD VARY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IF BRIEF CLEARING OCCURS IN EASTERN VALLEYS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/01/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...RPY

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