Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260730 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 230 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through tonight. Warmer with upper level disturbances and rain showers next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM Sunday... Zonal flow with surface high pressure settles in for the near term, turning slightly southwesterly with vorticity maxima towards 12Z Monday, and warm frontal influences at the surface. Significant weather through 00Z is limited to the eroding stratocumulus deck, lastly exiting the northeast zones and near normal temperatures across the area. After 00Z, have to introduce slight chance POPs back into the fold with the overrunning over the western zones. Lower confidence here with actual measurable precipitation, and may need to use sprinkles instead through 12Z Sunday in a future forecast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 PM Saturday... High confidence in the first half of the short term forecast with cool and dry high pressure centered over the region. Clouds will be on the increase on Monday as a warm front lifts northward through West Virginia. During the day Monday we should remain mostly dry. Model guidance is spitting out some light QPF for Monday, however low levels are quite dry and QPF may be a bit overdone. Current thinking is that we may see a few sprinkles and VIRGA during the day and for now I decided to just go with slight chance to low chance PoP in the forecast. With the cloud cover, we will see low temps much warmer Monday night as most areas should remain in the low 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 PM Saturday... Not much changes from the previous forecast. Very warm conditions once again for the area as we head into the middle of the week under deep southwesterly flow. However, flow amplifies with deep upper trough starting to dig over the Central U.S. late Wednesday and progressing east through the remainder of the period. Guidance shows intense low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes and driving a strong cold front across the area Thursday. This will continue our roller coaster weather as temperatures turn much colder for the end of the work week with possibly some snow on tap for next Friday. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1225 AM Sunday... Stratocumulus to gradually dissolve overnight, lingering at CKB and EKN thru 22Z. Some MVFR expected on the front end for EKN and BKW in terms of the ceilings, with light snow at 6SM. Wind gusts to subside below 15kts by 16-18Z. VFR expected through the remainder of the period with no ceilings and only few to scattered clouds expected above FL200. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EKN/CKB/BKW MVFR ceilings could fluctuate through 12Z. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 02/26/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M M M H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.