Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
176 FXUS61 KRLX 300612 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 212 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front lifts through today, followed by a cold front Thursday night and Friday. High pressure crosses Sunday. Next system Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM Thursday... High clouds will be on the increase early today as a surface low and closed 500mb low cross the Central Plains. This will lift a warm front through, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along the Ohio River and into north-central WV. With SE flow at the surface, think precip will have a hard time moving into the typical downslope zone along I-79 from Charleston to Clarksburg. However the SE flow could drive some light rain along the eastern slopes and Appalachian ridge. Precip will rapidly increase tonight as the surface low crosses northern IN with a cold front pushing in from the west. This will likely be the remnants of the strong to severe thunderstorms expected in the Lower Ohio River Valley today. It will be coming through overnight, a poor time for sustained strong convection. However, should a good cold pool driven convective complex already be ongoing, there is enough CAPE (200-400J/kg) and shear (40-50kts) to keep a somewhat organized line going as it moves in from the west with a potential for damaging winds and some hail. PWAT values of 1.0-1.3" indicate the potential of heavy rain. Basin averages should be in the 0.25-0.5" range, but of course there could be locally higher amounts which could approach an inch. With current 3 hour flash flood guidance of around 1.5-2" we should be able to avoid any significant water issues.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 PM Wednesday... The next in the series of spring southern stream bowling balls approaches Thursday night, and then rolls across Friday and Friday night. Showers associated with the warm front may be lifting up through the middle Ohio valley Thursday evening. Otherwise, models, most notably the NAM, are slower with this system, delaying the main round of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front, so that, with the loss of heating, thunder is more likely Friday than Thursday, albeit more like morning and midday rather than Friday afternoon. The system pulls out of the area late Friday and Friday night, with upslope rain showers / drizzle lasting into Saturday. High pressure brings some clearing Saturday night. Temperatures and dew points in line with previous forecast and central guidance. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 420 PM Wednesday... After a dry close to the weekend, the next spring southern stream bowling ball approaches late Sunday night and Monday, and crosses late Monday night into Tuesday, and the one after that may already be approaching by the end of the day on Wednesday. Temperatures continue above normal including behind the cold front Wednesday, with central guidance staying largely in line with the previous forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM Thursday... VFR expected today, as with clouds on the increase. An isolated to scattered t-shower is possible along the Ohio River and across the eastern slopes, which could lead to restrictions but confidence not high enough to mention at any TAF site. More widespread rain will being moving in late tonight. Wind will generally be SE to S through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Could get some MVFR to IFR in t-showers today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 03/30/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night and Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.