Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270749 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 349 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SKIRTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE BEHIND SOME MORNING MIST AND STRATOCU THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF AND MIX OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS DRY THE COLUMN OUT CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. NAM CRANKS THE CAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN RESPONSE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SE OHIO...WHERE THE FLOW IS STRONGEST. FARTHER E...LIGHTER FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER SPELLS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. LIKED HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR A TIME TODAY AND ALSO STAYED ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS BY FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY WED. THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT. EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WED EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN WORKING SLOWLY EWD. SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR. .AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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