Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241924 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 324 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates through early next week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front Wednesday night/Thursday. Secondary cold front early weekend time frame. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM Sunday... A persistent high pressure will continue to provide dry conditions with warm afternoon and cool nights through the period. Near calm winds and clear skies could produce river valley fog during the predawn hours Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 310 PM Sunday... No significant changes to the forecast. As of 240 AM Sunday... No changes to the synoptic setup through the middle of next week. Upper ridging over the middle Ohio Valley into the northeast drives the mainly clear conditions with above normal temperatures. Maria will continue its slow trek northward off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, potentially slinging high level clouds into the mountains. No significant POPs expected in the short term.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 310 PM Sunday... A cold front will drop through the region from the northwest to start the period, though models remain consistent in bringing it in mostly dry with only slight chance PoPs across the southern WV and southwest VA mountains given more favorable upslope flow. This is in response to a subtle shortwave embedded within an increasingly amplified long-wave trough, with the larger trough moving through over the weekend. Moisture availability is again forecast to be scant with low level Great Lakes moisture struggling to reach this area. Progressively cooler air settles in behind the two cold fronts with weekend temperatures currently forecast to be around 5 degrees F below average.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Sunday... High pressure provides widespread VFR mostly clear skies and near calm wind through the period. The exception will be along some river valleys that may experience IFR patchy fog. The density of fog will depend on clear skies overnight. Any IFR river valley fog dissipates 12-13Z Monday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR/LIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MC NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...26/MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...ARJ

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