Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240750 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 350 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS. MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SFC EVEN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS. UPSLOPE STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING FROM THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING ON HEATING AND DRYING. MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM THE W TO NW. HAVE A HINT OF THIS IN THE FCST. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD DAWN SAT IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE BLENDS AND LOOKED REASONABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND REACHES THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM12...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...ARE SPITTING OUT THE SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF QPF FOR THE 06Z SUN TIMEFRAME. LEFT MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR MOUNTAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS DYING FRONT MAKES ITS EXODUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHED NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. USED INHERITED TEMPS WITH A BLEND TOWARD CONSENSUS BC GRIDS TO COVER DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH LEAD TO MINIMAL CHANGES IN VALUES.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING. WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS WARM. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MEET. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC. GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO WILL HOLD POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY. WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR STRATOCU DISSIPATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT MAY REFORM BRIEFLY AS MORNING CU AFTER DAYBREAK FRI. OTHERWISE VLIFR DENSE FOG LIKELY MOST SITES...EVEN BKW MAY GET IFR FOG. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRI AND FRI NT...WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS MID AND HIGH CLOUD. VALLEY FOG MAY START TO FORM BY 06Z SAT. MVFR STRATOCU MAY ALSO START TO REFORM IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z SAT. CALM AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT W SFC FLOW FRI AND THEN BECOME CALM AGAIN FRI NT. LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY...AS MAY MVFR CIGS AT EKN INTO FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI NT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 10/24/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...TRM

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