Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240112 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 912 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Remnants of Cindy and a cold front to provide rounds of heavy rain into tonight. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 912 PM Friday... Latest radar mosaic shows the center of the remains of Cindy were moving across eastern Kentucky. A large area of showers with embedded storms had spread across much of our forecast area. Have received reports of water issues with this precip. In addition, have received a few reports of trees down with some of the stronger storms. Only real change that I have made was to lower the chances of thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Otherwise, forecast is generally on track. As of 230 PM Friday... Models have the remnants of Cindy riding up along a cold front that will move east southeast across the area later this afternoon and tonight. The aforementioned systems and associated precip will exit the mountains for the most part prior to dawn Saturday morning. Mid level dry slot and breaks in the clouds over NE Ky and much of WV, well ahead of the aforementioned systems, will continue to generate scattered showers and isolated storms this afternoon and evening in the tropical like atmosphere ahead of Cindy. PW`s above 2 inches. Looking for the main organized band of heavy convection, associated with Cindy and the cold front, to first move across southeast OH and northwest WV this afternoon, then shifting eastward with the system later afternoon and tonight. Some of the storms may be severe, with mainly damaging winds, over the northwestern half of the area this afternoon and evening as the leading edge of the main band arrives. Inserted mention of heavy rain. Otherwise, clouds will tend fill in with heating this afternoon. Flash flood watch continues til 6 AM Saturday morning, along with a severe thunderstorm watch for the northwest half of the area til 10 PM this evening. For Saturday, with the precip gone early and clouds decreasing, expect a cooler and dry day with brisk west to northwest winds. However, with the increased sunshine adn drier air, temperatures will be similar to Friday. As of 600 AM Friday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary attm. As of 345 AM Friday... Deep southwest flow will bring moisture associated with tropical depression Cindy to the area through tonight. Models show high dewpoints...in the upper 60s...and pwats reaching 2 inches suggest showers and storms could produce heavy rain. Available moisture, diurnal heating, deep layered shear exceeding 50 knots and sfc CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg mainly along the OH River suggest some storms could produce damaging winds and periods of heavy rain. The freezing level is about 15 kft. Therefore the threat for large hail is low. SPC have portions of southeast OH and WV and northeast KY in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A flash flood watch is in effect for the entire CWA until 6 AM Saturday. Tonight, the remaining circulation associated with Cindy will be passing over the forecast area. Meanwhile, a cold front will push east reinforcing instability and moisture. Very heavy rain is more likely tonight. Total QPF of near one inch is forecast across southeast OH, and decrease towards the east. Tonight, the rainfall axis shifts to the east diagonally across central WV with a QPF maxima of 2 inches across northeast KY, and 1 to 1.5 inches elsewhere. Overall, in the next 24 hours can expect a widespread 1.5 to 3 inches with locally heavy amounts through tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Friday... High pressure will result in dry weather into Sunday. A cold front should sweep across portions of the region Monday into Monday night bring a chance of showers and storms. Temps will remain below normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Cool high pressure will build in on Tuesday bringing rain chances to an end. Below normal temps should prevail Tuesday into Wednesday before southerly winds result in near normal readings for the remainder of the region. Another system approaching the region from the northwest will result in increasing chances for showers and storms beginning on Thursday which should continue into Friday. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 00Z Saturday thru 00Z Sunday... As of 755 PM Friday... Latest radar mosaic shows circulation associated the remains of Cindy was pushing east across portions of eastern Kentucky. A large area of showers with some embedded thunderstorms with mvfr..lcl ifr...isold lifr...conditions extended from eastern Kentucky northeast across Southeast Ohio and the northwest half of West Virginia. This area of showers and isold storms with the IFR or worse conditions should spread east across the entire region through 07z. A cold front currently moving southeast toward the area will push southeast overnight...before exiting the region aft 10Z. As the front pushes southeast...expect the precipitation should come to an end with conditions slowly improving. By 15Z...expect VFR conditions should prevail across the entire area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium through 06Z...Low afterwards. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of MVFR/IFR conditions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 06/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H M L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L M M L H L L L L L M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M L L L M M H L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H L M M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L M L L L AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog Saturday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV NEAR TERM...JSH/JMV SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JSH

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