Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251514 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1114 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system slowly moves through the Carolinas today, and then fills as it moves up the middle Atlantic seaboard through Wednesday night. Next cold front Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 11 AM Tuesday... Adjusted PoPs according to latest radar images. Tweaked hourly temperatures per recent sfc obs. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 630 AM Tuesday... Raised morning pops for band of rain moving slowly west-westward through WV, on north side of upper level south. As of 420 AM Tuesday... Stacked low pressure system moves northeastward from the Carolinas to the middle Atlantic coast this period. Spiraling bands of showers around the aging occlusion move west and northwest through WV this morning, but then dissipate this afternoon as the system gets farther from the forecast area. The chance for showers becomes confined to the northern WV mountains by tonight, and then goes away altogether overnight tonight. Winds diminish tonight in a cull between the exiting low pressure system, and a new frontal system extending up and down the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday morning. This may allow valley fog to form. Moisture lingering below an inversion may result in low clouds and fog over the mountains. Temperatures close to a near term blend and a little lower than previous for highs today. Previous forecast close to guidance and accepted for lows tonight, except lower in the valleys. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... High pressure builds into the region for Wednesday, for overall dry and warm conditions. Rather dry airmass expected to be in place should result in an overall sunny sky, and quick warm up in temperatures, with much of the lowlands topping out in the lower to mid 80s, with 70s in the mountains. Focus then shifts to a cold front which will move into the region late Thursday afternoon or evening. Still expecting showers and thunderstorms, but still thinking severe potential will be somewhat limited, particularly if timing of the frontal boundary slows down further. Nevertheless, there is the potential for heavy downpours, and strong gusty winds making it to the surface, although, no widespread severe is expected at this time. If there is any change in the timing of this boundary, the story on this could change however. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... Focus this weekend shifts to a developing and strengthening low pressure system near the Gulf. Warm frontal boundary will lift north across the region on Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms as it does so. In addition, it will be rather hot and humid for this time of year, with dew points rising into the 60s, and max temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for much of the lowlands, as good southerly flow/high moisture content air makes its way into the region out ahead of this approaching low. Any storms that develop during this time period will have heavy downpours, due to the high moisture content, pw values progged to rise to 1.2 to 1.4 inches. Strong cold front with system progged to move through the region early next week. Although still several days out, this is looking to be a major system this weekend into early next week, and will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 11 AM Tuesday... Rainfall will slowly dissipate in place over WV. IFR ceilings will be possible over areas that receive constant rain. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 630 AM Tuesday... An inversion will keep MVFR stratocu in the mountains much of today, before breaking up tonight. Lowland locations will have MVFR stratocu st times this morning. The rain moving through this morning is not likely to produce any further restrictions, but it does increase confidence in fog tonight, as winds diminish and the higher clouds thin out. Surface flow will be light northeast today and then become light and variable to calm tonight. Moderate southeast flow aloft today will become light and variable tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR stratocu could vary. BKW very close to IFR this morning. Formation of fog or mist tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY L L H M M H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M H M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H M H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR fog may linger an hour or so Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ/TRM

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