Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 202048 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 348 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather continues later this weekend as strong closed low passes just to the southwest. High pressure brings brief warm up midweek, before colder air arrives late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM Friday... Warm air has surged into the region behind a warm front that passed earlier today. Temperatures have already reached the low 60s across the Southern half of the forecast area. Although it remains mostly cloudy this afternoon, there are some breaks in the clouds and areas that see any persistent sunshine could climb into the upper 60s. Forecast soundings indicate enough low level moisture lingers tonight for mostly cloudy skies to persist. This will also keep us quite mild overnight with lows generally in the low 50s to upper 40s. With the saturated ground, it is possible that we see some fog develop by early Saturday morning, but this will depend on cloud cover. Tomorrow will be another very warm January day as warm air advection continues. Weak overrunning starts again in the afternoon. Right now the current thinking is that precipitation will likely hold off until after 00Z, but have added some slight chance to low chance PoP across the Southern forecast area tomorrow evening. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Friday... Rain Showers may work northeastward into the area, on weak warm advection, Saturday night. However, rain is much more likely on Sunday, as an upper level short wave trough crosses. That trough is basically a warm wave moving northward, ahead of a much larger short wave trough / closed low approaching from the west. There may be a relative break in the rain Sunday night, as the warm wave moves on by. However, the upper level low barrels across the gulf states, reaching the Carolinas Monday morning. Surface low pressure forms along the way, and reaches western VA by Monday morning. The system then turns north, and heads up the east coast Monday and Monday night. The eastward trend in the track of the system has ended if not reversed a bit, so the models are likely now honing in on the eventual outcome. With the intensity of the system being maintained, a good one to two inch rain event over much of the area appears more likely. Some model output is over three inches over southeast portions of the forecast area. Will continue mention in HWO. No major deviations from blended guidance on temperatures. Cold air aloft associated with this system may now support snow over the highest terrain as early as Monday evening, and there may be light accumulations there Monday night. Will continue that highlight in the HWO as well. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 PM Friday... Big east coast system pulls away on Tuesday, with rain and high elevation snow showers ending, lastly in the mountains. There is a brief opportunity for a return of warm weather Wednesday, before a new cold front arrives Wednesday night. That front heralds a pattern change back to colder weather, as a long wave trough migrates eastward to the eastern U.S. Upslope flow, weak disturbances along the cyclonic shear side of the upper level flow, and lake trajectories, will lead to scattered rain showers eventually transitioning over the snow showers over lower and lower terrain. Temperatures close to guidance blends with the cool down after the Wednesday spike. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1250 PM Friday... A warm front has pushed through the region. Behind the front there is generally broken clouds as ceilings range from VFR to MVFR. Ceilings should continue to increase through the afternoon as we become firmly entrenched in the warm sector. Isolated showers will be possibly this afternoon across Northeast West Virginia, but for the most part we will continue to dry out. Confidence in the forecast starts to drop later tonight. There will remain breaks in the clouds and with low level moisture in place there is a chance that we could see some fog develop. Some sites could possibly drop to IFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: With broken clouds ceilings will likely drop to MVFR at times. Fog development tonight may be more widespread than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M L H H H M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M H L M L L L L L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H L H H H H M L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday with another system. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MPK

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