Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291831 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 231 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CLEAR TO START BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AS SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. CU WAS STARTING TO POP ACROSS SW VA AND SWRN WV...ALONG AND S OF A WARM FRONT THERE. HAVE SCHC / ISO CONVECTION THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIE WITH THE SUNSET...BUT THEN REFIRE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ALONG AXIS OF 345K H85 THETA E AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER. HAVE 20 KTS OF FEED...30 KTS W OF THE OHIO RIVER BUT NO REAL FOCUSED LLJ SPATIALLY AND FORCING IS WEAK...SO EXPECT AREA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT TO BE SCT AT BEST. LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT. CONVECTION MAY ALSO START FIRING OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT...AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WAVES COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W...APPROACHES. LIKED HIGHER MET VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSION. LITTLE CHANGE ON HIGHS SAT...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR 70 FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG WILL BEGIN FORMING OVERNIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...WILL STOP IT DEAD IN ITS TRACKS MOST SITES AT MVFR OR BETTER. EXCEPTION IS EKN WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE DENSE FOG BY 06Z AGAIN...BUT EVEN THERE...THE FOG SHOULD THIN OUT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE. A THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT S TO SW ON SAT...WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LIGHT SW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...EXTENT AND DISSIPATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...TRM

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