-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
224
FXUS61 KRLX 101818
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
218 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue as a warm and moist airmass remains in
place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Another summertime afternoon filled with scattered showers and
storms are underway today amid hot and muggy conditions. Local
stations across the forecast area depict a dew point spread
within the upper 60s to low 70s and convective temperatures
having been breached. As a result, isolated to scattered showers
and storms have begun to sprout, being the most bountiful along
the foothills and mountains. The weather forecast office has a
decent vantage point of upward development off to the west in
the Kanawha Valley and along the Ohio River Valley. Storms today
will be primarily driven by daytime heating, and should quickly
diminish in coverage after sunset. Lightning, locally damaging
wind gusts, and heavy downpours will accompany convection today,
with the overall severe risk staying outside of the forecast
area.

After showers and storms settle down this evening, excessive low
level moisture and calm surface winds will serve up another
strong signature for fog late tonight into Friday morning.
Another rinse and repeat forecast will be on tap for Friday,
with more diurnally driven showers and storms amid hot and muggy
conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 215 PM Thursday...

A conveyor belt of Gulf moisture continues to propel into the
Central Appalachians over the weekend. Coupled with warming
temperatures and ongoing humidity, daily opportunities for
diurnally driven showers and storms will flourish under these
conditions. Forecast sounding trends portray convective
temperatures becoming exceeded during the late morning hours,
with cumulus fields quickly blossoming and growing into
convective storms through the afternoon and evening. Severe
weather will be centered outside the forecast area, closer to a
meandering frontal boundary, but a few rogue storms could grow
strong enough to produce locally damaging wind gusts and heavy
downpours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 215 PM Thursday...

The new work week will continue to feature isolated potential
for showers and storms along the spine of the Appalachians
during peak heating hours. H5 ridging parked over the western
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will supply enough subsidence to
support more drier weather across the lowlands by Tuesday and
Wednesday. Hot and muggy temperatures prevail through the
extended forecast period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms are underway this afternoon, forming
in close vicinity to all of our TAF sites. Additional amendments
may be needed, dictated by radar trends, but for now have a few
tempo groups running for the next couple of hours highlight
potential for brief restrictions in response to nearby
convection. Activity today will be mainly diurnally driven,
weakening and departing the forecast area around sunset.

Amid hot and muggy weather, enough low level moisture will
fester around the region tonight and will be conducive for fog
development into the predawn hours on Friday morning. Locally
dense fog will also be possible for sites that observe
measurable rainfall from this afternoon and evening. After the
fog erodes shortly after daybreak, more diurnally driven showers
and storms will be on tap for Friday afternoon.

Outside of strong thunderstorms, surface winds are anticipated
to remain light and variable through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Surface restrictions due to convection may
vary from the forecast through this evening. Timing and extent
of fog development may vary overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day through Monday. IFR fog possible during the
overnights.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK