-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 281749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED
DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS
TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL
SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO
DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KMC