Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 100242 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 942 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 940 PM Friday... Previous forecast was too quick in eroding the cloud cover over the Tug Valley and Tri State area. Trimmed the POPs in the northeast mountains as it looks like only the ridges are getting the light snow at this point. As of 225 PM Friday... Sfc obs, satellite and radar images show flurries and light snow showers across the area. It is evident that the available low level moisture comes from the Great Lakes region. Forecast on track. No changes necessary. Under northwest flow, upslope snow will continue mainly over the northeast mountains. High pressure builds in Saturday to bring drier but below freezing temperatures for highs on Saturday. Used the blend of models for temperatures through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Friday... A warm front will develop over the upper Ohio Valley Sunday in response to a surface low emerging out of the southern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level impulse zipping through the increasing zonal flow will help to increase the isentropic lift across the Ohio Valley in proximity to the warm front. Confidence is increasing on this staying just north of the area, perhaps clipping portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia zones with some light snow later Sunday before turning to rain overnight into Monday. This remains a low confidence forecast primarily due to the extent of WAA from the south. Much of the remainder of the area should stay dry until late Sunday as the cold front approaches. A non diurnal trace was maintained Sunday night with increasing WAA in the low levels as which point rain will be the predominate precip type for most of the area. CAD on the eastern slopes may keep a freezing rain threat in, at least initially. The cold front exits Monday with a drying trend to ensue. It will be warm with a spike into the low 50s possible before the front crosses. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 325 PM Friday... There continues to be some disagreement on how the next shot of cold air comes to fruition later next week. This argues for not straying away from the Superblend for now. This brings the next round of arctic air into the area midweek which may or may not be ushered in by a wave on the front. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 630 PM Friday... High end MVFR ceilings will linger, especially over the northeastern terminals at CKB and EKN (though CKB is currently VFR) with other sites improving during the late overnight hours. Winds down below 10kts will remain there, and could go calm overnight with decoupling of the lowest layer of the atmosphere. Once CKB and EKN come up after 16Z Saturday, VFR will prevail through the remainder of the period. This will occur several hours sooner for the other terminals. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may vary through tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 12/10/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H M H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M L H L AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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