Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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208 FXUS61 KRLX 200649 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 249 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Cooler and drier for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 749 PM Saturday... Updated forecast to fine tune the convective band across northern WV and central Ohio for the next several hours. As of 550 PM Saturday... Updated forecast to better handle convection over central OH and northern WV. As of 300 PM Saturday... Surface cold front and upper trough will pass just to our north this afternoon and evening. Currently along the front showers and thunderstorms have been kicking off across Northeast Ohio and pushing into Western PA. Forecast soundings indicate drier air in the midlevels across our Ohio Counties and Northern WV and this will likely damper the convection in our area. However, we are on the fringe of the better moisture and as the trough pushes eastward this afternoon we will see an increase in lapse rates to above 7C/Km and moisture may sag far enough south. Although the strongest storms will be just off to our north, there will be some potential for storms to reach severe limits with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Storms will quickly dissipate this evening with the loss of heating and high pressure pushes in. Clear skies and light winds overnight will make for favorable conditions for dense valley fog to develop. Tomorrow will be dry across the entire area with seasonable temps and mostly sunny skies. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Sunday... Accounting for the eclipse in the temperature grids on Monday afternoon by using modest hourly temperature reductions from 18-20Z given the sky cover in the 20-35 percent range. Digging trough aloft into the Great Lakes will drive an airmass changing cold front late Tuesday and Tuesday night, with increasing flow out ahead of the system. Better dynamics will be further northeast of the area, but thunderstorms are possible upon entrance into the CWA late Tuesday, but will erode as the front moves through in the late evening/overnight time frame.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Sunday... Should run 10-15 degrees cooler in both temperature and dewpoint in the wake of the front as Canadian high pressure brings pressure rises back into the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. The western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough setup will persist, with high pressure holding through the weekend. The long term will be largely dry, with temperatures very gradually ticking upwards.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06Z Sunday thru 06Z Monday... As of 145 AM Sunday... A weakening east to west surface boundary across southeast Ohio and central WV will continue to weaken overnight, and dissipate Sunday morning. Isolated convection along this boundary will gradually dissipate by Sunday morning. Thru 12Z Sunday... SCT-BKN clouds 4000-6000 feet AGL along aforementioned surface boundary with an isolated shower. River valley fog between 07Z and 12Z, especially in areas that received rain earlier. Expect PKB, EKN and CRW to be the most prone for IFR fog. Light south to calm valley winds. After 12Z Sunday... Fog burns off by 13Z, then VFR conditions can be expected with mainly SCT clouds 4000-6000 feet AGL. Will keep mention of any showers out of WV mountains for now. Winds becoming west to southwest 3 to 8 KTS by afternoon. After 00Z Monday...VFR mostly clear. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low to medium with fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M L L M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L M H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MPK/MC NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...RPY

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