Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 060838 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 338 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH. THIS EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE. STILL DO SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR AND THE MARCH SUN. BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND HTS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. SNOW COVER AND SUNSHINE COULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL CU DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 03/06/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H M M M M M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE MOST TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO RIVER HAVE RECEDED WITHIN WEST VIRGINIA...EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE RISING WATER LEVELS TODAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ HYDROLOGY...KMC

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