Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291009 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 609 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. RAMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. GENERALLY ACCEPTED INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO CHANGE THIS PERIOD FROM A DEEP EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...TO A MORE ZONAL TYPE FLOW ALOFT. ONE LAST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE INTO THIS SYSTEM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ATTENDING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES EFFECT. UP TO THIS POINT TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND...EVEN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT...AS AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY PACIFIC IN NATURE. BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS ROLLS ACROSS THE NATION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING CONTROL. IN THIS PATTERN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE NATION...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS QUESTIONABLE...IT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 03/29/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KMC

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