Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160213 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 913 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passes through the region tonight through Tuesday. Arctic air mid week. Turning milder for the end of the week, as the arctic high exits. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 910 PM Monday... Did some work to slow up the POPs over the next 9 hours or so, but also touched up the timing and snow amounts through the end of the snow event. No major changes to the overall totals for the entire CWA As of 130 PM Monday... Low pressure passes north of the area tonight and into the Great Lakes and continues Northeastward during the day on Tuesday. The trailing cold front with this low slowly moves through the area tonight and during the day tomorrow, bringing a band of snow with it. With a positive tilted upper trof movement of the front will be relatively slow to push through. Model QPF equates to about 1 to 3 inches across the Western lowlands of SE OH, NE KY, Western WV and SW VA. Slightly high amounts of 2 to 4 in the higher elevations of the Eastern mountains of WV. Current advisories look good for the area. Starting in the west and continuing an eastward progression through the night tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday... High pressure builds at the surface from the West through the period, gradually drying us out as the upper level trough and cold front slowly move out to the East. Still have upslope/frontal snow along the WV and SW VA mountains with low- level moisture and NW flow - and some enhancement early Wednesday along the highest peaks of WV with a subtle mid-level wave advecting through the trough. Though, low- level winds turn more westerly and cut off any upslope influence by daybreak Wednesday. Gusty winds and continued cold air advection aloft produce wind chills dipping into single digits and negative single digits Wednesday morning. Temperatures steadily climb through the end of the period under warm air advection and broad ridging aloft. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM Monday... Warm air advection continues under ridging/SW flow, bringing in pleasantly warm temperatures through the end of the weekend ahead of the next system, whose high-level clouds start streaming in Saturday. A deepening upper level trough over the western US sets the stage for classic lee-side cyclogenesis, shown in all long-range operational models. Though have had to slosh PoPs somewhat due to uncertain timing, there seems to be good indication of warm-overriding rain showers Saturday night into Sunday ahead of a strong cold front with rainfall Sunday night into Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 625 PM Monday... Ceilings will lower with the approach of a cold front and snow shower development across the region. All lowland terminals will be at risk for IFR visibility snow during the overnight, with the mountain terminals slated for after 12Z. Ceilings will end up in either low end MVFR or just below 1kft and IFR as well. Expect a wind shift with the passage of the cold front from southwesterly to westerly, but gusts should stay below 12kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR to IFR in snow may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M M L M L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M M M M M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR likely in snow Tuesday into Tuesday night, and possibly lingering into Wednesday in the mountains, mostly in the wake of a cold front that crosses tonight and Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ523-524. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ005>011- 013>020-027>032-039-040. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ520>522-525-526. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Tuesday night for WVZ024>026-033-034-515>519. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for OHZ076- 085>087. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ066-067- 075-083-084. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for KYZ101>103- 105. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Tuesday night for VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MC NEAR TERM...JS/26 SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...26

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