Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 171952
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
352 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Secondary cold front invites much colder air into the area late
tonight with snow showers Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 350 PM Sunday...
Increased temperatures and winds a bit this well-mixed
afternoon. Forecast dews points are sufficiently low, and the
rest of the forecast remains on track, with a wind shift
approaching the Ohio River.
As of 152 PM Sunday...
The weekend wraps up with mostly sunny skies today in the wake
of this morning`s cold frontal passage. Broken to overcast skies
still reign over southwest Virginia into the Greenbrier Valley
due to the lingering close proximity of the front. Otherwise,
rest of the forecast area will finish off the daytime hours with
mostly sunny skies and passing fair weather cumulus. Breezy
post-frontal winds remain in place across the area this
afternoon, making temperatures feel a few degrees chillier than
actual readings.
A secondary cold front drops down from the Great Lakes region
overnight into Monday. This will bring reinforcing cold air down
into the Central Appalachians and promote overnight lows to dip
down into 20s. A chillier start to the work week will also be
provoked by cold air advection in the wake of the front, with
Monday`s highs progged to only reach the low 40s in the lowlands
and the 20s/30s along the higher terrain.
In addition to cooler temperatures, a quick burst of
precipitation may accompany the parent trough that drives the
cold front through the region on Monday. May see a boost in
shower chances Monday afternoon across the Ohio River Valley
into the central lowlands, but becomes more pronounced as
showers advance eastward into the mountains. With temperatures
in the high elevations falling short of reaching above freezing,
light snow accumulations look feasible by Monday evening. Better
snow amounts extend into the short term forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...
Upslope snow showers will be ongoing at the start of the period as
an upper trough continues to move through the area. Accumulations
should generally be limited to the higher terrain, and light.
Precipitation should generally taper off to flurries Tuesday, with
temperatures moderating somewhat, although wind chills will still
make for a rather brisk feeling day compared to conditions lately.
Another fast moving clipper type system looks to affect the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light rain and snow,
mainly across the northern mountains and north central WV.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1231 PM Sunday...
Temperatures moderate mid to late week with high pressure and a
split flow pattern taking hold across the area. Still uncertainty in
how the overall pattern will evolve late next week concerning a
system in the southern stream, and whether or not moisture
associated with it/path of low will affect our area, or if we will
remain mainly dry and dominated by more zonal flow in the northern
stream. Maintained a blend of guidance during this period, which
maintains a chance, but has been gradually decreasing in confidence
for widespread precipitation from run to run.
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.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 152 PM Sunday...
VFR conditions prevail through the period. Afternoon fair
weather cumulus have begun to sprout and will dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating. Clouds fill back in overnight into
Monday with a passing cold front, but remaining under VFR
thresholds.
Surface winds have remained gusty today in the wake of this
morning`s frontal passage. A secondary cold front tonight will
promote veering winds out of the northwest for Monday, with
gusts gradually diminishing heading into the new work week.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of surface wind gusts
may vary from forecast through tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Periods of IFR conditions under snow showers possible Monday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...TRM/MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK