Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280745 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 345 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves away today, with lingering NW flow showers. Brief dry weather mid week with another system late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM Tuesday... Pretty easy to pick out the upper level low via satellite -- spinning its way into southwestern Ohio. Somewhat elongated surface low stretches from southern IN into central OH, with a cold front draped across the lower Ohio River Valley. These features will gradually move their way through today with showers becoming more NW flow driven by this afternoon. The showers will gradually come to an end from west to east late this afternoon into tonight. With plenty of clouds around afternoon highs will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Monday. Low clouds will be slow to break up tonight. Despite cold front passage, clouds and linger low level moisture will hold overnight lows above normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 AM Tuesday... High pressure Wednesday before the next system begins to make its way into the region on Thursday afternoon. A broad area of low pressure moves right over the region Friday for an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms. A high shear/low buoyancy kind of regime, so not much in way of concerns except for isolated water issues.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 335 AM Tuesday... High pressure builds Saturday and Sunday. The next system arrives Monday or Tuesday and is another broad low pressure system - probably similar to the Thu/Fri system.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 AM Tuesday... Upper level low will bring showers and stratus with MVFR to IFR through today. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder with colder air filtering in aloft, but opted to keep out of TAFs for now. Lingering low level moisture should keep low stratus around tonight as well. Could also get some fog to develop with wet ground, however a puff of wind should remain through the night, so confidence not real good on the fog. Southerly winds will turn westerly this afternoon as a cold front passes, and then northerly tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be some IFR fog and stratus this morning, especially if the winds go near calm. Timing of showers and category changes may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 03/28/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY M M H M M L M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY L L H L H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M H M M H M H M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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