Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160527 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 127 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MILDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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UPDATE... VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS UPDATE. WORKING ON THE PACKAGE DUE IN A COUPLE HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLOUDS CLEARING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY. BASED ON LOWER DEW POINTS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO GO CALM TOWARD MORNING...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...A RELATIVELY NICE MID APRIL PERIOD. 925 MB FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD MAIN A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. EXPOSED RIDGES WILL BE MILDER. STILL HAVE THOSE SHELTERED AREAS NEAR FREEZING. SINCE THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL...AND TO AVOID THE DOUBLE HEADLINE WITH THE CURRENT FREEZING WARNING FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY...WILL NOT POST ANY FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 12Z NAM AND CMC BOTH MORE AGGRESSIVE PULLING MOISTURE NNE UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. CONSENSUS WAS TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE...AND KEEP FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME 20/30 POPS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY STILL TRICKY...MAY COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH CIRRUS WE HAVE. SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...YET 850 MB TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE 5C. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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STRATUS CONTINUING TO ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS OF VFR -SHSN AT EKN...BUT EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS VFR BY 09Z. WINDS WILL EASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE LOSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. VFR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME CONCERN OF BACK BUILDING OF THE STRATUS IN CKB AND HOLDING IN EKN LONGER THAN EXPECTED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/16/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...21/KTB/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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