Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270053 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 853 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses Tuesday morning. High pressure crosses Wednesday. Warmer, more humid and unsettled latter half of the week. A cold front arrives Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 900 PM Monday... Latest radar mosaic and surface observations show some showers moving across portions of central Ohio. An area of showers and possible storms extends from NW Pennsylvania across northern Ohio into Indiana. Latest short-range models suggest the initial showers will dissipate while the second band moves southeast. Based on these models, have changed the PoPs tonight to lower them to slight chance initially and then ramp them up into the chance category around midnight. Also made some changes to the timing of the precipitation. Otherwise, forecast is generally on track and only plan on making some tweaks. As of 200 PM Monday... Short wave trof axis will cross tonight a few showers. Isolated to scattered shower wording in the grids as this works through. The surface front will lag a bit...taking until late Tuesday morning to clear the area. As such clouds will linger through the morning hours before mixing into a scattered cu field. All in all, another nice day on tap with below normal temps and low humidity. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Monday... Northwest flow behind an exiting trough will bring in relatively cool air Tuesday night through Wednesday with building high pressure and low moisture. Weak ridging gives way to zonal flow with weak embedded waves traversing the mid- levels over the Great Lakes region. These mid-level features along with warm, moist advection in the lower levels leads to increasing PoP`s across the northern zones through Thursday night with warmer temperatures all around. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Monday... Southwest flow through the lower and mid levels increases temperatures/moisture and thus instability with an approaching frontal system for the latter half of the week. Diurnal warm sector thunderstorms and hot temperatures are forecast for Friday and Saturday. Starting Saturday night, scattered showers and storms precede a weak cold front as it sags southeastward across Central Appalachia. There is some disagreement regarding the exit of this front, as it may hang up in the mountains by Monday, so have maintained modest diurnal PoPs/PoTs though break in shortwaves Sunday night justifies some drying. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00Z Tuesday through 00Z Wednesday... As of 735 PM Monday... VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period. An upper level trof and surface cold front will move slowly southeast tonight and Tuesday bringing with it more widespread clouds at 6-8 kft overnight tonight, along with some scattered showers. Rain chances should begin across portions of southeast Ohio by 03Z before spreading southeast overnight into the early morning hours. The showers should be limited to the mountains after 15Z. A thunderstorm or two is possible across the mountain counties after 18Z. A few locations may see MVFR vsbys with these showers and storms. However, expect the MVFR conditions to be few and far between. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None except MVFR fog possible KEKN overnight tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 06/27/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms in the middle Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/MC NEAR TERM...JSH/30 SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...JSH

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