Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230837 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 337 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Stacked surface/upper low passes to the east today and tonight. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 235 AM Monday... No major changes to the evolution and track of the stacked upper level and surface low, but challenges remain with the QPF. The RAP and especially the HRRR are still on the aggressive side, giving more than an inch and a half in places, but will keep it on the lower end of the models with about an inch to an inch and a quarter through today. Rain shadow in place west of the mountains currently due to the easterly component to the low level flow, but eventual saturation will occur. As the lows pass to the east, low level flow will back to the northwest, transitioning the event to more of a northwest flow scenario complete with a low level thermal trough. Cold air advection is not much of a driver here, but dynamic cooling from the proximity of the upper low brings highest ridge temperatures below freezing, and subject to a change over to snow later this evening and tonight. Accumulations will be 1 to 3 inches, but look like they will be primarily above 3500ft. Greenbrier and Tygart River valleys will likely remain as rain, or a rain snow mix. Still no headlines for water issues, but isolated pockets of minor problems may occur due to persistence of rain and multi basin coverage. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Monday... Tuesday will see the shower activity wind down fairly quickly from west to east as the strong low pressure system moves away. Dynamic cooling will also wane as the system moves away, so that lingering high elevation snow showers in the northern mountains will change to rain showers before ending. Little additional snow accumulation expected there. High pressure will return Tuesday night with dry weather and near seasonable low temperatures. The pattern will change beginning Wednesday as northwesterly flow aloft drives a cold front southeastward into our area later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A good warmup again into the 60s Wednesday ahead of this cold front. Scattered rain showers will spread southeast across most of the area Wednesday night behind the cold front, with rain showers changing to snow showers in the northern mountains, but with little accumulation.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 305 AM Monday... For this period, established northwest flow aloft will bring a series of upper disturbances and cold fronts, with progressively colder air invading the area. These will bring scattered showers for the later half of the week and into the weekend, but with no storm systems expected, precip amounts will generally be on the light side. Temperatures will cool to at or slightly below normal by Friday. The scattered low elevation rain showers, and high elevation snow showers, on Thursday will change to mostly all snow showers Thursday night and continue into the weekend. In general, little snow accumulation is expected in the low lands, while some snow accumulations in the mountains are likely.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1220 AM Monday... Overall, deteriorating aviation conditions expected through the TAF period as a strong upper level and surface low brings copious rain to the central Appalachians and middle Ohio Valley. Wind flows in the lower levels will keep the ceilings from lowering too quickly across the lowlands, but saturation of these lower levels will eventually bring conditions down to low end MVFR to IFR. However, increasing winds will keep them in check at the same time. A lot of moving parts to this forecast, so some lower confidence is involved here. EKN will also hold off the IFR with downsloping easterly winds. LAMP guidance is the most pessimistic with the forecast, but the pattern/timing is good, so tempered this with a blend of the MET and MAV for ceilings and visibilities. Heavier rain may need IFR TEMPOs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Conditions could fluctuate continuously with rain bands from system overnight and tomorrow. Timing of MVFR/IFR onset may vary slightly. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 01/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H M L M L M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L M M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H L H M M L M H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L H M M M H M L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M H L L L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR weather is expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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