Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290549 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... NO CHANGES THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK. USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY WITH A HISTORY OF BOUNCING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT THROUGH THE TERMINALS. HAD TO SET THE CONDITIONS ON THE WIDER SIDE BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO CONFINE THEM TO CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE HOPE OF ACHIEVING SOME CONSISTENCY. IN THE END...CLEARER SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG...ONLY TO DISSIPATE IN CEILINGS AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OBSERVATIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE...AND USED TEMPOS MORE LIBERALLY THAN DESIRED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/29/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M H L L L L M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC NEAR TERM...KMC/30/26 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...26

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