-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 181132
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
732 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA.

THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRODUCED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AIRMASS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR WITH WHAT WAS IN PLACE LAST
NIGHT. IN FACT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENTLY
THINKING THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FOR TODAY....ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AND COULD POSSIBLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITIONS...MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH FROM OH AND PA INTO WV TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
ENHANCED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS PER RECENT MODELS OUTPUT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AD THURSDAY.

HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR...LCL IFR...CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WERE THE RESULT OF A SYSTEM THAT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO CONTINUE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFT 18 UTC...EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY.

A SECOND SYSTEM...WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 22 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

AFT 06 UTC...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND SHOULD THEN RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AGAIN AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH