Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240003 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 703 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system passes overhead this afternoon and to the east tonight. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front and lingering northwest flow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 700 PM Monday... Coverage of precipitation decreasing in a hurry this evening as most of the steadier light rain has shifted into southern areas. The upper low will move off the VA capes tonight and as northwest flow becomes established across the area...expect the mountains to see the bulk of light precipitation overnight with upslope snow showers accumulating an inch or so across the highest ridgetops. As of 100 PM Monday... Main concern is prolonged rainfall causing isolated flooding issues as a system moves up the East Coast. Radar showing a lot of bright banding, so you cannot trust any radar-derived precipitation. Most rainfall gage amounts thusfar have been under an inch and a half in 6 hours. Even this is causing a few creeks to rise out of their banks, but there have been very few reports of issues. Rain should continue this afternoon before decreasing tonight as the system moves north. Cold air will pool in and turn the rain to snow in the mountains and even right now Snowshoe is experiencing snow. Dry slot is beginning to nudge into the WV mountains so do not expect much in the way of snowfall amounts in our counties. An additional inch or so possible. Have an SPS out for rainfall in the south of WV - may need a few more of these as wave lifts north and training occurs. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Monday... Any lingering precip will taper off quickly Tuesday night as moisture thins and upper ridging moves in. With that upper ridge in place Wednesday, looking at another warm day. Kept POPs out for the most part Wednesday, although do have some low end POPs sneaking in late in the day ahead of a cold front. That quick moving cold front will move through Wednesday night with showers. Cold air then filters in behind the front with a transition to snow showers... first at higher elevations, but the snow level will lower through the day Thursday. Do have a couple inches of snow accumulation in the northern mountains above 3000 feet by late Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM Monday... Theme of the long term is persistent northwest flow driving on and off snow showers into the weekend. Models showing several upper level shortwaves will transition across, which should cause waxing and waning POPs as each moves through. Confidence in timing any individual impulse is fairly low at this point, however both GFS and ECMWF show one Friday night into Saturday morning and another Saturday night. Have some higher chance POPs with each of these, but even between impulses maintain slight chance to low chance POPs with the northwest flow. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 700 PM Monday... Widespread 1 to 2 thsd ft MVFR cigs will continue tonight...with IFR cigs possible at times...primarily across northern taf sites. Light precip this evening will become primarily confined to the mountains overnight with snow showers expect...even at KEKN. Some brief IFR vsby is possible in any snow shower at KEKN. MVFR cigs will linger on Tuesday...as low level moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion. Cigs should lift above 2 thsd feet by the afternoon. Some upslope showers/snow showers will continue on Tuesday...possibly affecting KEKN and KCKB at times with reductions in vsby. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Observations likely to fluctuate in rain and low ceilings. Amendments likely. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M H L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY L M L L L L L L L L H L AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR weather is expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW/30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30

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