Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251459 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1059 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Remaining hot and muggy today. Cold front sinks in late today lingering into Tuesday. Another system is slated for late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Updated...Added a few more counties to the heat advisory. Dew point temps a tad higher than forecast attm and coupled with forecasted temps well into the 90s should boost heat indicies to low to mid 100s. Previous Discussion... Another hot and humid day is expected today, with heat indices around 100 across much of the middle Ohio River Valley and southwestern WV lowlands. Minor changes made to afternoon highs by blending in ECMWF MOS, but heat advisory criteria is still well covered by current advisory and no changes planned. NAM and GFS seem a bit bullish on QPF early this morning, so relied more on HRRR with POPs mainly holding off until after 15Z. Cold front approaching northwestern CWA late this afternoon, and have likely POPs developing around 20Z-21Z. That front should slowly sink south through CWA. Initially, sink an area of likely POPs south as well, but as we enter the typical diurnal minimum for convection late tonight, have POPs gradually waning into the chance range. Lots of instability available in this hot and humid airmass, so expect storms to grow quite tall. Not a whole lot in the way of shear for much of the day, but an increase to 20-30kts bulk shear is expected just ahead of the cold front. With this in mind, thinking organized area of strong to severe thunderstorms not likely, but isolated/pop up strong to severe storms possible. The best chance of this will be across the northern quarter of the CWA, near the front this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind would be the most likely threat as storms pulse up and down. Freezing level will be pretty high to get large hail, so it would take a persistent tall storm to produce hail. Precipitable water values also high late today into tonight -- topping out above 2 inches. Combined with the fairly weak flow, downpours are likely and could lead to localized water issues.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A sfc stationary front will stay in the vicinity Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect this front to oscillate back and forth keeping chance for showers and storms mainly across the southern half of our CWA. Models show sfc based CAPE exceeding 3000 J/Kg, low deep layered shear and precipitable water around 2 inches. These parameters suggest showers and storm can develop quickly capable to produce heave downpours in a short period of time. Isolated water problems could happens on training cells or repetitive path of showers and storms. High temperatures will range from around 90 degrees lowlands to low 70s higher elevations. Went closer to the super blend for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... This front dissolves later on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage by Friday. An amplifying upper level trof will settle in for the weekend with a cooler airmass taking hold. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Any lingering fog should quickly dissipate this morning. A cold front approaches from the north today, so have some showers and thunderstorms in the forecast -- mainly this afternoon into tonight. Should individual cells approach TAF sites, restrictions would be needed. Have low confidence in fog formation tonight, which will depend on where it rains late in the day and how many clouds linger. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm may directly impact a TAF site late today into tonight with brief IFR conditions. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending on lingering clouds.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>029. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...JS/MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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