Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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815 FXUS61 KRLX 080811 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 311 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses first thing this morning, followed by much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM Thursday... A cold front entering the forecast area from the west early this morning, crosses in a subtle manner this morning. Low level west to northwest flow and cold advection will gradually increase in the wake of the front today. It will take much of the day to get a stratocu deck in place, and upslope snow showers will only gradually get going in the northern mountains tonight. Maintained forecast of an inch at Snowshoe late overnight tonight with h85 temperatures -12 to -14 C supporting dendritic crystal growth. Used a near term guidance blend for temperatures, with a slow rise in cold advection today, and overall not much change from the previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Thursday... Light upslope snow showers will continue across the higher terrain Friday and Friday night, with light accumulations possible. Still quite cold across the area Friday and Friday night, with -6-7C air at 850. Mountains will see another night in the single digits to teens, with teens to lower 20s elsewhere. Snow showers will taper off by Saturday morning as flow becomes less favorable. Much of the weekend will remain dry, and gradually milder, as weak ridging builds across the area in advance of the next system. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 AM Thursday... Active weather returns to the long term period. A wave will move east across the Great lakes region Sunday, creating light precipitation, mainly across northern zones. Precipitation will increase across the area region wide by Sunday night into Monday, as low pressure in the plains moves northeast into the Great Lakes region, spreading rain and snow showers back into the area. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 100 AM Thursday... A cold front crosses the area in a subtle manner early Thursday morning. No precipitation is expected as the front crosses, and ceilings will not get lower than 6-8 kft. Winds will gradually increase from the west during the day Thursday, and gradually become gusty during the afternoon, while a stratocu deck around 4 kft gradually overspreads the area from northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon. Gusty west to northwest upslope flow will continue Thursday night. MVFR stratocu will push into the middle Ohio Valley and then across northern WV, and snow showers may begin in the northern WV mountains overnight. Light west to southwest flow aloft overnight Willi become moderate west to northwest Thursday morning, and remain so through Thursday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. Timing and height of MVFR stratocu may vary Thursday night. Gusty winds may vary Thursday afternoon and night, including being stronger than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 12/08/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in snow showers overnight Thursday night into Friday in the mountains. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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