Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 111045 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 545 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Next upper trough and cold front move in tonight, with a stronger upper trough on Tuesday. Another cold shot arrives late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 545 AM Monday...Had to make some minor tweaks to sky cover and the low temp forecast for this morning. One is a direct result of the other, as we have had some persistent cloud cover across the north this morning and temperatures were averaging about 5 to 7 degrees warmer than previously forecast for this morning. Other than that, it still looks to be a mostly quiet weather day before our next system moves in early tomorrow morning. As of 350 AM Monday... Warm southwesterly flow across the region today out ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs will be close to normal values today, which will be welcomed after the chilly weekend we saw. However, we won`t get to experience a reprieve in the cold temperatures for long. All guidance is in good agreement that a strong cold front should reach the Ohio River before 09Z Tuesday. For the most part, any weather with this front should hold off until the very late in the near term period between 06Z and 12Z Tuesday. Cold air moves in quickly aloft as axis of upper trough sinks overhead. Will likely start seeing scattered snow showers popping up across the entire area before 12Z out ahead of the front. Accumulations will be quite light though for this time period and will generally be confined to the higher elevations and favorable upslope areas of the NE Mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 335 AM Monday... Models continue to indicate a clipper-type system will move away from the region on Tuesday with gusty northwest winds bringing in another round of cold air. Everything points to a decent mountain snow event Tuesday and Tuesday night as moisture and lift in the dendritic growth zone combine. Models also indicate winds could be quite strong with wind gusts across the lowland counties in the 20 to 25 mph range and in excess of 30 mph across the mountain counties. Would not be too surprised to see some gusts near 40 mph across the highest elevations. Combination of colder air and these gusty winds will make it feel even colder with wind chill values below zero in the mountains and in the single digits Tuesday night. Went with model blend for max temps Tuesday and Wednesday as well as lows Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 335 AM Monday... Another system swings through during this period. However. models are somewhat different with the timing and the track of the feature. Because of this uncertainty, have gone with the model blend for the forecast. Cold air remains in place for Thursday and Friday with warmer weather anticipated for Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1225 AM Monday... Expecting VFR through the TAF period, but there will be some VFR ceilings in the 4K to 5K feet range as a weak system passes across the north. Cold front will be approaching late Monday night into Tuesday morning, however, any restrictions should be after 06Z Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings overnight could come close to MVFR at CKB, EKN, or PKB. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 12/11/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Tuesday is forecast to have scattered snow showers across the entire area and IFR conditions will be possible at times, especially in the mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...MPK

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