Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180006 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 806 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Secondary cold front invites much colder air into the area tonight, setting the stage for scattered snow showers Monday afternoon Monday night. Another cold front crosses midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 805 PM Sunday... A well-mixed layer through h7 with saturation h85-h7 at -10C to -20C Monday afternoon should yield scattered snow showers, with low wet bulb temperatures at the bottom of the inverted V profile limiting melting of hydrometeors even at temperatures near 40F, although temperatures will be lower under the snow showers than otherwise. Updated the precipitation probability forecast to reflect scattered coverage for much of the area Monday afternoon. As of 350 PM Sunday... Increased temperatures and winds a bit this well-mixed afternoon. Forecast dews points are sufficiently low, and the rest of the forecast remains on track, with a wind shift approaching the Ohio River. As of 152 PM Sunday... The weekend wraps up with mostly sunny skies today in the wake of this morning`s cold frontal passage. Broken to overcast skies still reign over southwest Virginia into the Greenbrier Valley due to the lingering close proximity of the front. Otherwise, rest of the forecast area will finish off the daytime hours with mostly sunny skies and passing fair weather cumulus. Breezy post-frontal winds remain in place across the area this afternoon, making temperatures feel a few degrees chillier than actual readings. A secondary cold front drops down from the Great Lakes region overnight into Monday. This will bring reinforcing cold air down into the Central Appalachians and promote overnight lows to dip down into 20s. A chillier start to the work week will also be provoked by cold air advection in the wake of the front, with Monday`s highs progged to only reach the low 40s in the lowlands and the 20s/30s along the higher terrain. In addition to cooler temperatures, a quick burst of precipitation may accompany the parent trough that drives the cold front through the region on Monday. May see a boost in shower chances Monday afternoon across the Ohio River Valley into the central lowlands, but becomes more pronounced as showers advance eastward into the mountains. With temperatures in the high elevations falling short of reaching above freezing, light snow accumulations look feasible by Monday evening. Better snow amounts extend into the short term forecast period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Sunday... Upslope snow showers will be ongoing at the start of the period as an upper trough continues to move through the area. Accumulations should generally be limited to the higher terrain, and light. Precipitation should generally taper off to flurries Tuesday, with temperatures moderating somewhat, although wind chills will still make for a rather brisk feeling day compared to conditions lately. Another fast moving clipper type system looks to affect the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light rain and snow, mainly across the northern mountains and north central WV. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1231 PM Sunday... Temperatures moderate mid to late week with high pressure and a split flow pattern taking hold across the area. Still uncertainty in how the overall pattern will evolve late next week concerning a system in the southern stream, and whether or not moisture associated with it/path of low will affect our area, or if we will remain mainly dry and dominated by more zonal flow in the northern stream. Maintained a blend of guidance during this period, which maintains a chance, but has been gradually decreasing in confidence for widespread precipitation from run to run. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 805 PM Sunday... Colder air infiltrates the area in the wake of a secondary cold front. After a VFR night, stratocumulus will billow up Monday morning amid steep low level lapse rates, and showers, mainly snow, will be scattered about the area during the afternoon. Outside snow showers, stratocu bases will generally be 4-5 kft with visibility unrestricted. Gusty west to northwest surface flow will gradually diminish tonight, but then pick back up a bit late Monday morning, all beneath light to moderate west to northwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. TAF amendments may be needed Monday afternoon for MVFR or even IFR conditions, as scattered snow showers target individual sites. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 03/18/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... Periods of IFR conditions under snow showers possible in the mountains Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/MEK NEAR TERM...TRM/MEK SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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