Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281815 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 215 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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