Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221027 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 627 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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615 AM UPDATE... SCT SHRA MOVING ALONG AND E OF OH RIVER AS OF 10Z WITH FRONT STILL HANGING BACK INTO W OH. ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS PREFRONTAL ACTION PUSHES E...WILL LOOK FOR SCT DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE FRONT AS IT CROSSES TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...BY AND LARGE. -SHRA BREAKING OUT ACROSS KY AND E OH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS IT SLIDES E INTO CWA AS S/W TROF CROSSES. SURFACE FRONT STILL WELL BACK TO THE W...WILL MARCH THRU TODAY WITH BAND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...WITH TIMING GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. EXODUS OF POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG A FEW HOURS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING CLOUDS BEHIND...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS CAA BEGINS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS TO BUY WITH REMAINDER OF MODELS CLEARING THINGS OUT NICELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAA WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS FIGURED IN THE THE N MOUNTAINS PERHAPS EXTENDING W INTO N WV LOWLANDS. H85 TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR -2C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ON STIFF NW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. AS SUCH...KEEP A GOOD PUFF GOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE N WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AND UP TO 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FURTHER SW ACROSS S WV/TRI STATE/NE KY...GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX LATE FOR A FROST THREAT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. ELECTED TO KEEP FROST OUT OF THE WX GRIDS ATTM THOUGH...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE OF BL AND SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...WENT A BIT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH WHERE MODEL DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. MAY NEED TO HOIST A FREEZE WATCH EVENTUALLY...BUT WITH WARM FRONT CLOUDS APPROACHING...A BIT IFFY RIGHT NOW. IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS. THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATING THAT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH NAM HAVING JUST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...WILL TIGHTEN POP GRADIENT CONSIDERABLY...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... -SHRA ACROSS WV WILL SLIDE E INTO MOUNTAINS AROUND 12Z BEFORE EXITING SHORTLY AFTER. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE MORE ROBUST SHRA. SHRA BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AFTER 15Z BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HAVE SOME LOW END VFR CIGS AND 5 TO 6SM VSBY ALONG THIS AS IT CROSSES TODAY. SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS POST FRONTAL THOUGH. NONETHELESS...CAA THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW SOME MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KEKN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF NW...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE HIGHER RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE N WV LOWLANDS AND THE N MOUNTAINS AS WINDS TRY TO SLACKEN LATE ACROSS NE KY/S WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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