Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231444 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1040 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE IN NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL GET TOO THIN THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...EVEN AS UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. JUST SOME SOME CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...5TH NIGHT. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WARMING FOR TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES. ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS 12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KHTS IS VFR AND EXPECT THIS TO TREND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EAST WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TIMING FOR THE CLEARING. WINDS HAVE BEEN TOO STRONG OVERNIGHT TO GET ANY REAL FOG FORMATION. THERE CLOUD BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND KEKN DURING THE MORNING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAF AS CONFIDENCE OF BEING WITHIN 15 MILES OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE FOG IN THE NORMAL RIVER VALLEYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY AND DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/JS NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...FB

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