Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170559 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1259 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure overnight. Weak system brings the chance for light rain Sunday afternoon and evening. Cold fronts cross Tuesday and again late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 1255 AM Sunday... Forecast on track. Dampening upper level system bringing the chance for light rain Sunday will be streaking across very quickly, but the rain will have trouble reaching the ground at first, on account of the very dry low level air. As of 930 PM Saturday... Setting up to be a difficult forecast for the overnight lows tonight. Have seen some areas decouple already and drop into the 20s, while other sites, especially on hills, are still in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As of 1220 PM Saturday... A high pressure system will provide dry weather and light winds tonight. However, some cirrus in advance of the next system will be moving into the region. Think that enough good radiation conditions will exist to go on the cooler side of MOS guidance lows. Flattening wave aloft moves over the area Sunday afternoon and evening. While some showers are expected, most of the moisture will be used trying to wet the lower levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, precipitation amounts will remain on the lighter side.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Saturday... Dampening s/w trof quickly exits to the east Sunday evening. However, an abundance of low level moisture will linger along with some weak isentropic lift in WAA. This was handled with light rain and drizzle in the wx grids. There is some concern for perhaps some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain in the higher elevations, however confidence is not particularly high at this point for any mention in the HWO. All of this will try to linger for the first half of Monday along and north of the I64 corridor as WAA strengthens to our southwest. This may setup a significant temp gradient across the area with low stratus/drizzle across the north and some sunshine across extreme southern counties. I have undercut guidance for highs Monday quite a bit across the north as a result. The WAA eventually wins out by Monday evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 255 PM Saturday... A southern system will scoot by mainly to the south Wednesday and Thursday, though enough of a spread for some low pops across the mountains. Attention then turns to the weekend where there remains considerable spread on the synoptic pattern evolution across the eastern CONUS, as a battle looms between building warmth across the southern states and advancing cold air from Canada. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1255 AM Sunday... A weakening upper level wave will streak quickly across the area Sunday, bringing some light rain. However, the low levels are so dry, and the system will be moving so fast, that much of the rain will not reach the ground at first, and the rain does does is not likely to cause aviation restrictions. The system pulls east of the area Sunday night, ending the chance for rain, except in and near the mountains, where there may be MVFR stratocu. Otherwise, with so little rainfall expected, the chance for low cloud and fog forming Sunday night is low. Surface flow will be light south to southwest, beneath mainly light southwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Formation of MVFR stratocu Sunday night may vary. Fog may start to form late Sunday night, especially if it rains more than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 12/17/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR in light rain and stratus at times overnight Sunday night through Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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