Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 180006
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
806 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Secondary cold front invites much colder air into the area
tonight, setting the stage for scattered snow showers Monday
afternoon Monday night. Another cold front crosses midweek.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 805 PM Sunday...
A well-mixed layer through h7 with saturation h85-h7 at -10C
to -20C Monday afternoon should yield scattered snow showers,
with low wet bulb temperatures at the bottom of the inverted V
profile limiting melting of hydrometeors even at temperatures
near 40F, although temperatures will be lower under the snow
showers than otherwise. Updated the precipitation probability
forecast to reflect scattered coverage for much of the area
Monday afternoon.
As of 350 PM Sunday...
Increased temperatures and winds a bit this well-mixed
afternoon. Forecast dews points are sufficiently low, and the
rest of the forecast remains on track, with a wind shift
approaching the Ohio River.
As of 152 PM Sunday...
The weekend wraps up with mostly sunny skies today in the wake
of this morning`s cold frontal passage. Broken to overcast skies
still reign over southwest Virginia into the Greenbrier Valley
due to the lingering close proximity of the front. Otherwise,
rest of the forecast area will finish off the daytime hours with
mostly sunny skies and passing fair weather cumulus. Breezy
post-frontal winds remain in place across the area this
afternoon, making temperatures feel a few degrees chillier than
actual readings.
A secondary cold front drops down from the Great Lakes region
overnight into Monday. This will bring reinforcing cold air down
into the Central Appalachians and promote overnight lows to dip
down into 20s. A chillier start to the work week will also be
provoked by cold air advection in the wake of the front, with
Monday`s highs progged to only reach the low 40s in the lowlands
and the 20s/30s along the higher terrain.
In addition to cooler temperatures, a quick burst of
precipitation may accompany the parent trough that drives the
cold front through the region on Monday. May see a boost in
shower chances Monday afternoon across the Ohio River Valley
into the central lowlands, but becomes more pronounced as
showers advance eastward into the mountains. With temperatures
in the high elevations falling short of reaching above freezing,
light snow accumulations look feasible by Monday evening. Better
snow amounts extend into the short term forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...
Upslope snow showers will be ongoing at the start of the period as
an upper trough continues to move through the area. Accumulations
should generally be limited to the higher terrain, and light.
Precipitation should generally taper off to flurries Tuesday, with
temperatures moderating somewhat, although wind chills will still
make for a rather brisk feeling day compared to conditions lately.
Another fast moving clipper type system looks to affect the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light rain and snow,
mainly across the northern mountains and north central WV.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1231 PM Sunday...
Temperatures moderate mid to late week with high pressure and a
split flow pattern taking hold across the area. Still uncertainty in
how the overall pattern will evolve late next week concerning a
system in the southern stream, and whether or not moisture
associated with it/path of low will affect our area, or if we will
remain mainly dry and dominated by more zonal flow in the northern
stream. Maintained a blend of guidance during this period, which
maintains a chance, but has been gradually decreasing in confidence
for widespread precipitation from run to run.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 805 PM Sunday...
Colder air infiltrates the area in the wake of a secondary cold
front. After a VFR night, stratocumulus will billow up Monday
morning amid steep low level lapse rates, and showers, mainly
snow, will be scattered about the area during the afternoon.
Outside snow showers, stratocu bases will generally be 4-5 kft
with visibility unrestricted.
Gusty west to northwest surface flow will gradually diminish
tonight, but then pick back up a bit late Monday morning, all
beneath light to moderate west to northwest flow aloft.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. TAF
amendments may be needed Monday afternoon for MVFR or even IFR
conditions, as scattered snow showers target individual sites.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/18/24
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Periods of IFR conditions under snow showers possible in the
mountains Monday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...TRM/MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM