Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201807 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 207 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level disturbance over the area slips southward on Thursday. Weak high pressure builds through the weekend. Cold front approaches by mid next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 205 PM Wednesday. Scattered showers dot the area this afternoon, and some could grow into run of the mill thunderstorms. This should all die down this evening, leaving patchy cloud, but valley fog is still likely to form and become dense once again by early Thursday morning, before burning off by its usual mid morning time. The upper level low shifts southward on Thursday, and so do the scattered showers and thunderstorms. Have the chance only over the central and southern mountains midday and afternoon, as drier air starts to filter in from the northeast. Temperatures and dew points looked good in light of the latest, well converged guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 410 AM Wednesday... Diurnal heating and orographic effects could produce isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms over the central and southern mountains Thursday into Thursday evening. Drier conditions expected Friday and Saturday as drier air moves in. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for this time of year, with foggy mornings continuing.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 410 AM Wednesday... High pressure with very relaxed pressure gradient will prevail this weekend into the beginning of the new week. A cold front will approach the area from the west by mid week to bring isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms. With very light sfc winds, mostly clear skies and available low level moisture will continue to produce foggy conditions in river valleys.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 205 PM Wednesday... Scattered showers dot the area, underneath a weak upper level low. Some could grow into thunderstorms, but they will not become that strong. The precipitation is expected to remain scattered, so no explicit TAF mention is coded, although VCTS is indicated. The precipitation will dissipate around sunset. There will still be patchy cloud around tonight, associated with the upper level low. However, valley fog is likely to form and become dense overnight into Thursday morning, before burning off by 14Z Thursday. The upper level low will start to drift south Thursday, limiting the chance for showers to the central and southern mountains of WV. Calm to light and variable surface flow through tonight, northwest in the mountains, will become light north to northeast throughout the area on Thursday. Light northwest flow aloft this afternoon will become light north tonight, and then light northeast on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need amendments to add MVFR to IFR in showers or storms this afternoon. Fog forecast for overnight tonight into Thursday morning may need adjustments on timing and density. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning through Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...TRM

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