Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290627 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 216 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level troughiness will keep the weather somewhat unsettled into early next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter interlude during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 200 AM UPDATE... Forecast on track with the rain having moved on to the east, and areas of low clouds and fog around. 800 PM UPDATE... All watches have been cancelled this evening. The last in the series of MCVs is weakening as it traverses thru the mountains. Rain rates have significantly decreased as convective elements have shifted into the piedmont of VA. In the wake of the departing MCV...expect dense fog to quickly develop this evening as partial clearing occurs. Upstream disturbance currently over the middle OH Valley is not expected to be a major player in our area tonight as the atmosphere has been pretty well worked over at this point. This system will however work thru the area tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon hours with sct shra/tsra developing by afternoon. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Even though the upper system exits by Friday morning...the air remains moist and conditionally unstable...with no associated front to push this tropical like air out of the area. Thus...will linger a shower possibility after the main batch exits tonight. On Friday...despite lots of cloud hanging on...enough instability may bring more mainly afternoon showers and storms of a scattered and disorganized nature. It will continue warm and muggy tonight. Although clods will again hold temps down in the lower 80s Friday...it will be humid. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Moisture remains over the region through the weekend and into Monday...although precipitable water comes down slightly. Models showing several disturbances moving through...but timing and placement varies by model. Due to these differences...will keep pops fairly generic with chances of showers and thunderstorms...highest in the afternoon and evening hours.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Using a combination of WPC and CONSENSus models...indicated building heights across the region allowing for hot and humid temperatures. Went with diurnal showers and storms through the term...especially in the mountains. Ridge will diminish toward end of term as a front approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Widespread IFR or worse conditions overnight into Friday morning, although there is variation as to whether the ceilings or the visibilities are IFR at east through 09-10Z, after which time dense fog should be more predominate. After sunrise, the fog will slowly thin out and lift into stratus and then MVFR stratocu. This will take most or all of Friday morning before a 4-5 kft cu field predominates for Friday afternoon. The next in a series of frequent upper level short wave troughs will combine with whatever daytime heating that can be mustered after burning off the morning low clouds to produce showers and thunderstorms in the area Friday afternoon, coverage too low to mention in the TAFs. Fog is likely to begin forming again by 06z Saturday. Light and variable surface flow will continue beneath light northwest flow aloft, which will become light west late Friday. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing settling in of low stratus and dense fog may vary a few hours depending on timing exodus of mid deck overhead. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/29/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions in low clouds and / or fog during the overnight into the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and thunderstorms mainly but not exclusively in the afternoons and evenings.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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