Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201753 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 122 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND WEST. THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE. IF THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE BETTER THAN FORECAST. A BRIEF SHOWER COULD CAUSE MVFR RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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