Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 051827 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 220 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION AS OF 3 AM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES ACTUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND AN UPPER LOW TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND RAIN WILL PUSH BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FOR MOST OF THE DAY WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PULL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TODAY IF A PERSISTENT ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...AS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME WATER WATER ISSUES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GENERALLY STAYING AWAY FROM THE NAM TO END THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS EVOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WARM FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW A TIGHTLY PACKED GRADIENT WITH THIS WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF WARMING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GOING CONSERVATIVE WITH THE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXITING OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT END OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. NO SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BARELY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA...AND THEN LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF AIRMASS...WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...WATER CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY LOW. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. TIL 00Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 00Z...IMPROVING TO VFR CEILINGS OHIO RIVER WESTWARD BY AROUND 03Z...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING THERE...AFFECTING HTS AND PKB. ELSEWHERE...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY DECREASE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 12Z...WHILE RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN WV...INCLUDING CKB AND EKN AND BKW...LOOK FOR CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO VFR CEILINGS AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL WV...INCLUDING CRW. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 12 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M L L L L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL COULD CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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