Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRLX 290752
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
352 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Warm front lifts through overnight. Next cold front Monday.
Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Saturday...
Busy night so far with waves of convection moving west to east
across the central/northern portions of the CWA. Models taking
two different approaches with this...one camp transitioning
things north pretty quickly through the early morning hours, but
the other camp brings the activity to our west straight east
into I-64 corridor -- or just north. This seems like the better
forecast with nose of low level jet still in the region, so
have highest POPs through 12Z along and north of I64, then
transition activity farther north as the nose of the jet also
moves north. Maintain some isolated to scattered showers and
storms today and tonight...mainly in SE Ohio and also mountains
Opted to go with a shotgun flash flood watch into early
afternoon. HRRR shows multiple waves of convection moving
through SE Ohio this morning, which could lead to an additional
1-2 inches of rain. Combined with up to an inch that has fallen
already early this morning, anticipate there could be some
issues on creeks and streams in the middle Ohio River Valley.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Saturday...
In the warm sector, cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm
across the northern half of the CWA Sunday. Otherwise just
looking at a summer like day with afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 80s across the lowlands.
Cold front moves through on Monday with showers and storms.
Ahead of the cold front we should have a modestly unstable air
mass with decent shear as well. This could lead to at least an
isolated strong to severe thunderstorm during the afternoon east
of the Ohio River -- as noted by marginal risk from SPC. Have
included this in the HWO.
In the wake of the cold front, cooler and drier weather moves
in for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...
The bulk of the long term looks to be influenced by a close
upper low developing somewhere across the midwest Thursday into
Friday. GFS and ECMWF both show the feature, but handle it
differently. Either way it looks like a cool, cloudy and rainy
end of the work week. Stuck close to a consensus blend, which
despite the model differences, still has likely POPs Thursday
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 143 AM Saturday...
Messy aviation situation across the northern half of the CWA
with waves of showers and thunderstorms drifting ENE. Overall,
only expecting some brief pockets of IFR in the stronger cells,
so did not include IFR in TAFs, however AMD tempos will be
needed if a stronger cell approaches a TAF site.
Main showers and storms should gradually shift north of area
later this morning with VFR and S to SW flow today into tonight.
Could still get some showers/storms across NW CWA and included
VCTS at PKB into this afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms could vary.
May need more aggressive IFR vis in TAFs.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 04/29/17
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H L M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ009>011.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ066-067-
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ101.