Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291040 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 640 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND DISSOLVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A NEW FRONT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK AS SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE W. PREV DISCN... THE ONE DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE SUMMER ENDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. MOISTURE GRADIENT AND H85 TROUGH AXIS WITH 40 KTS FROM THE S AHEAD OF IT AND 30 KTS FROM THE SW BEHIND IT MAY BRING ABOUT AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SLOW EWD PROGRESS OF THESE FEATURES AND CLOUD TOP WARMING MAY RESULT IN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATER THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OR LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSOLVING OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THEN MAY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TOWARD DAWN TUE...AS THE FRONT DISSOLVES...AND NEW CONVECTION FORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR ALONG VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SPC MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REFLECTS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON HEATING BEHIND WHATEVER HAPPENS WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING. IF HEATING PRODUCES SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD ARISE GIVEN SUFFICIENT SPEED AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT/TROUGH. HIGHS TODAY WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP LOOKED GOOD DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CONVECTION. BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH WAS ALSO CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE NORTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TYPE FEATURE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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DENSE VALLEY FOG THAT HAD FORMED IN THE VALLEYS OF NRN WV OVERNIGHT...WAS ALREADY BURNING OFF...SAVE FOR THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE IT SHOULD DO SO WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE FCST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSOLVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE W THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AT FIRST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HTS TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT SW WHILE FLOW LIGHT SW ALOFT TODAY WILL BECOME MODERATE SW TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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