Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 261837
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
237 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Cold front crosses Thursday with showers, and another on Sunday.
Warmer this weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...
Radar has been picking some echoes aloft with the warm front and
10kft ceilings. These have since moved out of the areas, with a
decrease in cloud cover over the I-64 corridor.
Warm advection is occurring aloft, and expect that to continue
into the overnight. This will keep overnight lows from dropping
very far at all, and have these lows generally a couple of degrees
above the guidance numbers.
Overall, kept the consistency in the timing of the line of showers
late tonight entering Perry/Morgan counties in Ohio. Southern end
of the front is acting frontolytically, so the POPs in this area
tonight into Thursday are largely capped at chance. Even where the
POPs are higher across the northern tier of counties, the QPF for
this front and the accompanying upper level open wave are low.
Most places will see less than a tenth of an inch of rain through
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday... A sfc low pressure system will cross
the southern Great Lakes region Thursday. An associated cold front
will pass over our area Thursday with showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms. Very little bouyancy, deep layered shear less
than 35 knots and precipitable water about 1.14 inches indicate a
weak environment for storms to form. Curious that models bring a
vorticity maxima ahead of the pcpn. So, kept likely PoPs and a
mention of afternoon thunder mainly over the eastern half of the
area through Thursday evening.
A similar clipper takes the same track passing northwest of the area
with another cold front by Sunday.
There is going to be a warming trend for the following few days
starting with lows in the 40s Thursday night and in the 50s Friday
night with showers lingering over the northeast mountains. Highs can
climb up into the upper 70s lowlands, ranging to 60 degrees highest
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday...
The weather remains unsettled in the long term with a series of
upper level disturbance possible along the upper level jet. Went
with the blend of models for temperature, tweaking down PoPs when is
dry under high pressure.
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...
VFR to begin with ceilings lowering through the TAF period. Winds
to veer to the southwest in the 10 to 15 kt range as rain moves
into the northern terminals. Some MVFR visibilities possible in
-SHRA when rain overspreads PKB, EKN and CKB. Rain chances are
possible at some point everywhere, but too low for prevailing
conditions at the southern terminals.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible in showers Thursday evening.
IFR fog possible this weekend early mornings.