Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290752 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 352 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front lifts through overnight. Next cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 335 AM Saturday... Busy night so far with waves of convection moving west to east across the central/northern portions of the CWA. Models taking two different approaches with this...one camp transitioning things north pretty quickly through the early morning hours, but the other camp brings the activity to our west straight east into I-64 corridor -- or just north. This seems like the better forecast with nose of low level jet still in the region, so have highest POPs through 12Z along and north of I64, then transition activity farther north as the nose of the jet also moves north. Maintain some isolated to scattered showers and storms today and tonight...mainly in SE Ohio and also mountains of WV. Opted to go with a shotgun flash flood watch into early afternoon. HRRR shows multiple waves of convection moving through SE Ohio this morning, which could lead to an additional 1-2 inches of rain. Combined with up to an inch that has fallen already early this morning, anticipate there could be some issues on creeks and streams in the middle Ohio River Valley. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Saturday... In the warm sector, cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm across the northern half of the CWA Sunday. Otherwise just looking at a summer like day with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands. Cold front moves through on Monday with showers and storms. Ahead of the cold front we should have a modestly unstable air mass with decent shear as well. This could lead to at least an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm during the afternoon east of the Ohio River -- as noted by marginal risk from SPC. Have included this in the HWO. In the wake of the cold front, cooler and drier weather moves in for Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM Saturday... The bulk of the long term looks to be influenced by a close upper low developing somewhere across the midwest Thursday into Friday. GFS and ECMWF both show the feature, but handle it differently. Either way it looks like a cool, cloudy and rainy end of the work week. Stuck close to a consensus blend, which despite the model differences, still has likely POPs Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 143 AM Saturday... Messy aviation situation across the northern half of the CWA with waves of showers and thunderstorms drifting ENE. Overall, only expecting some brief pockets of IFR in the stronger cells, so did not include IFR in TAFs, however AMD tempos will be needed if a stronger cell approaches a TAF site. Main showers and storms should gradually shift north of area later this morning with VFR and S to SW flow today into tonight. Could still get some showers/storms across NW CWA and included VCTS at PKB into this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms could vary. May need more aggressive IFR vis in TAFs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 04/29/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ009>011. OH...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ101. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MZ

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