Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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740 FXUS61 KRLX 070230 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 930 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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930 PM UPDATE... LOWERED LOWS W AND RAISED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT ON HIGH STRATOCU/LOW ALTOCU DECK. FCST OTHERWISEON TRACK. 645 PM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH T850 ABOUT 5C WARMER AND ALSO WITH POSSIBLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS EFFICIENT. WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO DECIDED TO BUMP HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TOMORROW...WITH OVERALL SIMILAR CONDITIONS FORECASTED AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NICE WX REGIME WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD AND SNOWY PERIOD NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING DOWN THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN THE SHOWERY PRECIP BEFORE THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN FOR TYPE OF PRECIP WITH FROPA. HAVE CONTINUED TO RELY ON THE NAM TO CAPTURE THE BL CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LIQUID TO MIX PHASE WITH FROPA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH TEMPS PERHAPS RISING IN THE BRIEF POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT. TRIED TO WORK THE HOURLY TEMPS USING A WETBULB EFFECT GIVEN THE GOOD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF FOR THE FRONT TO WORK ON. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET SNOW AS THE FRONT CROSSES ON MONDAY OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. AT THIS POINT NOT LOOKING AT ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY ASIDE FROM A 1 TO 3 INCH COATINGS ABOVE 2 KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TRUE CAA ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH THE UPPER TROF. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM W TO E AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AIDED BY APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED OVER NE KY/S WV/SW VA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL MONDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OVER SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS. DECENT THERMAL PACKING ALOFT WILL ACT TO EFFICIENTLY BRING DOWN WHAT FLOW THERE IS SO HAVE SOME 15 TO 20 KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA INFLUENCED BY SUBTLE SPOKES OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CATEGORICAL OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES AN AUTO CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WHICH CORRESPONDS TO SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE MORE OF THE HALF INCH TO INCH VARIETY WITH 1 TO 3 OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO PASS THE 30 DEGREE MARK AND MAY JUST END UP STEADY STATE WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT FALL IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...MAYBE A BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL...WE STILL ENVISION A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT WILL ADD UP TO A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH 4 TO 8 OVER THE MOUNTAINS THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES OF COURSE. WILL KEEP CURRENT HWO WORDING INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT S ON SUNDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE TURNING BACK TO LIGHT SW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/MPK/30/MC NEAR TERM...TRM/MPK SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JW/MC AVIATION...TRM

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