Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260955 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 455 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. CLIPPER LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. MOISTURE ALONG AN INVERTED TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOWS OVER OUR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND DIMINISH THIS MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FORMED IN A DEFORMATION ZONE FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THIS BAND. CLOUDS TO LINGER AS A COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SE OHIO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEENS ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE IMPENDING COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN...MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT. FIRST...ALL MODELS HAVE WHAT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE LEFT FROM AN EXITING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH ENDING EARLY FRIDAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA DURING FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A MODERATING TREND...AND TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 30S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA...BUT ALLOW A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL TRACK A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TO JUST NORTH AND WEST OF US...AND LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. LOOK FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP MAY START AS A WINTRY MIX...BUT THEN GO OVER TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY MORNING AS A GOOD WARM SURGE PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE 40S. THEN...HERE COMES THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY CHANGE THE RAIN BACK TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY DECREASES. RAIN AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS THE REGION MID WEEK. FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN TO START...BUT TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MID WEEK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTH THROUGH OHIO. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...AND PW VALUES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BASED ON THE PATH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE A BRIEF DRY SLOT DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WV LOWLANDS...BUT TOO EARLY TO FIGURE THAT IN AT THIS POINT. WITH THE RAIN...COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AT THIS TIME...AS IT IS SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE EVENT...AND ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN IN THE MODEL RUNS UNTIL THEN...THUS CHANGING THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT TO OUR SOUTH. MVFR TO IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FROM BKW TO EKN LINE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME. REST OF TAFS SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A SECOND SYSTEM SWINGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY FOR MORE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS VSBYS AND CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS MAY VARY THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 02/26/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H H M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ033>036. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ024- 025. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003- 004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JS

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