Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311826 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 226 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN PULLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NOTED A FEW SHOWERS STARTING TO POP UP OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...WHERE THE CU FIELD IS MOST STOUT. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...DYING OFF EARLY RELATIVE TO SUNSET. OTHERWISE MAIN FEATURE THIS PD IS A PAIR OF SRN STREAM S/W FEATURES THAT MOVE NE ACROSS AN EVER INCREASING SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. WV IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAMS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALREADY SHIFTING NWD...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO ENCROACH UPON SW VA AND SRN WV. THIS SHIFT CORRESPONDS WITH A RISING HEIGHT FIELD AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW JUST S OF HUDSON BAY FILLS...AND THE L/W TROUGH BEGINS TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE ERN CONUS. HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE SERN FRINGES OF THE CST AREA BY DAWN FRI...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY FRI...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OVER THE LOWLANDS FRI AFTERNOON. THE WWD EXPANSION OF COVERAGE FRI AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...UNDER THE CLOUD SHIELD...THE STABILITY ACTUALLY INCREASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER THERE ACTUALLY WANES. THE LAST OF THE S/W/S STARTS TO PULL AWAY TO THE E LATE FRI AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLY COMPROMISE OF THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE WHILE AN ALL BLEND SEEMED TO PROVIDE A CONSISTENT SOLN FOR HIGHS FRI.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... REALLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS CONSISTS OF A WEAK BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...WITH UPPER IMPULSES RIDING UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM PERSISTS AS THE WESTERN OUTLIER WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH THESE IMPULSES. MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MAIN BAND OF ORGANIZED RAINS WILL BE FROM THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST. SO WE MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER AND MORE DIURNAL POPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL STILL ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE 70S EAST TO THE LOWER 80S WEST. THINK THUNDER CHANCES IN THIS REGIME WILL BE OF A CHANCE OR SCATTERED NATURE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS WOULD BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS SHOULD START IMPROVING LATER SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN BEFORE SUNSET...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOWERING CIGS ON SE FLOW TONIGHT...WITH MVFR STRATOCU GETTING AS FAR NW AS BKW BY DAWN FRI AND THEN LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD /18Z FRI/. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR DAWN FRI ONWARD. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER W BY 18Z FRI. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THE CONVECTION...SHOULD PREVENT A REPEAT OF THE DENSE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...WITH VSBYS NO WORSE THAN MVFR CODED UP. LIGHT SW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT SE FRI...A LITTLE STIFFER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MAY HIT PKB OR CKB THIS AFTERNOON. VSBY IN FOG LATE OVERNIGHT / EARLY FRI MORNING MAY BE BETTER OR WORSE THAN THE MVFR THAT IS CODED UP. UNCERTAINTY OF EFFECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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