Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201729 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 129 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Cooler and drier for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 PM Sunday... Weak high pressure keeps the CWA dry and warm today. A minor impulse at 500 mb passes to our north overnight though trended towards SREF and GFS ensembles keeping the forecast dry. There should be fog again in the river valleys overnight though the impulse and a full day of sun today may lessen the density and extent overnight. Despite this, still kept a general mention of fog in the river valleys. Monday high pressure holds on albeit weakly, but should be enough to keep us dry again with minimal cloud cover except in the mountains where daytime heating may be enough to spark a few isolated showers. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Accounting for the eclipse in the temperature grids on Monday afternoon by using modest hourly temperature reductions from 18-20Z given the sky cover in the 20-35 percent range. Digging trough aloft into the Great Lakes will drive an airmass changing cold front late Tuesday and Tuesday night, with increasing flow out ahead of the system. Better dynamics will be further northeast of the area, but thunderstorms are possible upon entrance into the CWA late Tuesday, but will erode as the front moves through in the late evening/overnight time frame. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Should run 10-15 degrees cooler in both temperature and dewpoint in the wake of the front as Canadian high pressure brings pressure rises back into the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. The western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough setup will persist, with high pressure holding through the weekend. The long term will be largely dry, with temperatures very gradually ticking upwards. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 12Z Sunday thru 12Z Monday... As of 130 PM Sunday... Weak high pressure for VFR until more river valley fog after 10Z before a return to VFR again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low to medium with fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of river valley fog tonight could vary. Mid level impulse may mix up BL moisture field a bit for a different fog pattern tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/26 NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JW

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