Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251902 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 302 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler through Tuesday with upper level disturbances providing a few light showers, even a thunderstorm. Dry midweek under high pressure. Progressive pattern takes hold late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Surface high pressure with an upper level short wave moving through this afternoon. The two features should largely offset each other, but for now, have a dry forecast. There is a chance that the wave could be strong enough to spawn a few showers especially north of I-64 and more likely north of Parkersburg. Clearing should ensue tonight with most places largely escaping any foggy conditions, so did not include fog in the forecast either. The exception may be the northern WV mountains. Monday should be cool and dry with a front approaching Monday night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday... A cold front and upper level trough will bring showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Kept POPs capped at high chance with somewhat limited moisture and time of day. Cool high pressure settles in behind the cold front with below normal temperatures and dry weather.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 240 PM Sunday... High pressure is on the way out Thursday with low level southerly flow taking over. This will begin pumping moisture back into the region. Aloft, several shortwave troughs will cross, with each providing potential showers and thunderstorms. A cold front next weekend should provide better organization and have likely POPs. ECMWF and GFS differ a bit on timing, so stuck with a consensus for now. With the southerly flow, temperatures will be running just above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1110 AM Sunday... High pressure with VFR conditions through the period. Fairly light westerly to northwesterly flow as well. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None except fog possible KEKN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog early Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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