Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 031920 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 320 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... PITTSBURGH AND BLACKSBURG SOUNDINGS CAME IN THIS MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE CAPE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE 12Z TIME FRAME...SO WE WERE SET UP FROM THE START FOR CONVECTION FROM AN INSTABILITY PERSPECTIVE. MOISTURE HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE LIMITING FACTOR AS WELL AS ANY REASONABLY ORGANIZED FLOW. THE RESULT IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE...EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST AND IN THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BUT HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO FIRE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. AREAS THAT CLEAR AND RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT VALLEY FOG. THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT WEAKNESSES IN THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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STAGNANT PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE E CONUS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS OVER THE REGION THAT COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THERE SHOULD BE DIURNAL POPCORN SHRA/TSRA MAXIMIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STILL...LOW POPS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS ON THE MUGGY SIDE.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK TOWARD THURSDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AMID A TRANSITION MORE INTO A E CONUS TROF. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO CROSS LONG ABOUT THURSDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GOOD SHOT A MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE OH RIVER.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION NOW FIRING ACROSS THE AREA WARRANTING VCTS FOR THE 19Z TO 23Z PERIOD. NO PREVAILING TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...WHICH SHOULD IN THEORY LEAD TO A FOG FORECAST SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER REMAINS A CHALLENGE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE RAIN AFTER A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD...FOG TIMING COULD CHANGE AND INCREASE. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...IN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MAY NEED AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS IF STORMS FORM/MOVE TOWARDS TERMINALS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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