Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261539 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1023 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY...AND MAYBE ANOTHER ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1030AM UPDATE. NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ADDED FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF WV RIVER BASINS PER MODIS SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL AND SFC OBS BELOW FREEZING THROUGH 13Z. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH COVERING THE OH VALLEY...WV...THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S LOWLANDS...TO THE MID 40S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...AND 20-30 KNOTS MAINLY WEST AT H850. AFTERNOON MIXING COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. AT NIGHT...EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR CALM WIND...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ISOLATED AREAS COULD EVEN REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT. WENT COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON AS LONG AS POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL FINALLY SUCCUMB TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE LOW WITH THE FRONT DEEPENS...BUT WILL RAPIDLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL WILL BRING THE WEST TO EAST MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY TO A CRAWL...AND WILL LIKELY HANG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THINK THE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORCING FROM BECOMING FRONTOLYTIC...HOWEVER...AS THE MAIN ENERGY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A HIGH QPF EVENT DESPITE ITS DURATION. NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THIS SYSTEM AT ALL...WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH. COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. SO AS THE COLD AIR FINALLY FILTERS IN...THE FORCING/PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR SNOW BY THE TIME THOSE TEMPERATURES COME DOWN. HIGHEST POINTS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE AN INCH OUT OF IT...BUT NOTHING FOR THE LOWLANDS FOR NOW. UNTIL THAT POINT...SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUITE MILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOPPING 60 DEGREES IN THE KANAWHA AND TUG FORK VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLING OUT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...AND HAVE POPS COMING TO AND END ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT ON GFS AND ECMWF...SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AS THE COLD AIR SQUEEZES OUT WHAT REMAINS OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE A GOOD DEAL LOWER ON THE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS HIGH NOSES IN...SO LOWERED POPS VS. PREVIOUS FORECAST. BLENDED IN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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15Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THRU 12Z SATURDAY. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 6 KTS TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THRU 00Z. AFTER 00Z...A SLOW INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ/JMV

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