Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170533 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 133 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE... NO CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE...AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING DOWN TO OR BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. HILL TOP LOCATIONS PROBABLY WONT GET AS COLD TONIGHT DUE TO NIGHTTIME INVERSION...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PUFFS OF WIND. KEPT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWING. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AOB 925 MB INCREASES ON SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS... BUT NO PRECIPITATION...FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS MAKE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE A TOUGH FORECAST THERE. THAT SOUTHEAST FLOW BREAKS DOWN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE MENTIONING JUST 20 AND 30 POPS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH NO THUNDER...FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEST...INTO FRIDAY NIGHT EAST. ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE COOLING AT 850 MBS INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE. THE LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER FROM GETTING TOO HIGH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY CONTINUED WPC THINKING WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL FOUR DAYS ON THE WHOLE WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND IN STORE...DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OP GFS QUICKER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF. CONTINUED TO CAP POPS AT MID/HIGH CHANCE WITH THAT FEATURE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR-SEASONAL THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS FOR THE LOWLANDS GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S AND MINS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE LOW 50S DURING THE LATER HALF. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25KTS. OVER THE LOWLANDS...THESE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KTS. ONLY CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL THICKEN INTO 12Z FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/17/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .CLIMATE... THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 16TH OF APRIL WAS TIED AT HUNTINGTON WV THIS MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...KTB/26 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...ARJ CLIMATE...26

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