Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRLX 241745
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016
Hot and humid this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm
possible. Weak front drops through Monday night lingering into
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure bringing oppressive dew points to the area with
temps in the 90s making for heat indices hovering around 100.
Abundant moisture and instability may kick off an isolated shower
this afternoon, but lack of forcing mechanisms and dynamics should
quell anything significant relegating everything to garden variety
modes. Radar indicates a few of these pinhole cells are already
popping up here and there.
A front to our north should slide close to our area by Monday
morning increasing clouds and giving a slight chance for some
PoPs and some relief from the heat and humidity.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front along approaches from the northwest to increase
clouds and chances for PCPN later Monday into Tuesday. Models show
some disagreement in the coverage, timing and intensity of
possible showers and storms. Leaned more to the GFS in coverage of
PCPN more numerous than the NAM and faster than the ECMWF.
The NAM shows ample sfc CAPE, low deep layered shear and
precipitable water around 2 inches. These ingredients will be
enough to produce heavy downpours and produce some water problems.
Used mainly the super blend numbers for temperatures through the
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday
with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon
shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. This
front dissolves on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low
approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the
afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains.
Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR expected this afternoon with some mid and high clouds.
Isolated t-shower possible this afternoon but low enough coverage
to keep out of TAFs for now. More clouds around tonight, so think
fog should be less. Did maintain IFR at EKN, with some MVFR
borderline IFR fog possible at other river valley sites.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing/intensity may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday. Early morning IFR fog
possible into mid week depending on lingering clouds.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.