Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270619 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front crosses the region on Thursday. Weak warm front moves through this weekend. Stronger cold front Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 215 AM Thursday... Forecast on track. As of 940 PM Wednesday... All quiet tonight with the active weather well to the west. Did go ahead and drop the overnight lows a couple notches given the lower dewpoints in play and sites decoupling. As of 220 PM Wednesday... Cold front approaches from the west tomorrow morning. Strong thunderstorms will be possible with this front, but the risk for strong storms will be greatest east of the Ohio River. Across the Western CWA it appears that clouds and showers out ahead of the front will limit daytime heating there and thus lower instability will be the result. Further east however, we will likely see clouds and convection hold off until early afternoon. Highest dew points will be well to our south, but low 60s dew points across Central West Virginia will be possible by early afternoon. Forecast soundings are showing some modest CAPE at about 1000 J/Kg and fairly strong 0-6 km bulk shear out ahead of the front upwards of 50 knots. With the strong wind profiles, the main severe threat will be damaging winds, but this will likely be an isolated threat as the limited moisture/instability should keep most of the storms below severe limits. Severe hail will be less likely, but certainly not out of the question with the strong shear even with limited instability. Showers and storms will be through most of the area by late afternoon to early tomorrow evening, but we may see a few storms linger in the NE Mountain Counties of West Virginia through 00Z Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 255 PM Wednesday... Cold Frontal boundary exits to the east of the CWA Thursday night, with drier, and warm weather taking hold for Friday as the frontal boundary gradually lifts back north as a warm front. Warm front will continue to lift northward as next system approaches from the west. Kept much of the CWA dry for Friday into Saturday. Low moves across the great lakes during the day on Sunday with the trailing cold front passing through late Sunday night and Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Wednesday... Weak high pressure starts to build in Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will stay on the warm side through Wednesday as a weak midlevel system approaches and brings mainly clouds and possibility of some showers to the area for Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 215 AM Wednesday... MVFR fog may form in the Tygart Valley. Otherwise, a VFR overnight and early Thursday morning precedes a cold front approaching from the west. That cold front is likely to bring showers and thunderstorms from west to east across the area late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. So far have coded VCTS / CB at this distance, but any thunderstorm can bring IFR conditions. Strong wind gusts and hail are also possible. Clearing will take place behind the cold front tonight, although MVFR stratocu may linger in the mountains, and fog may start to form late. Light east to southeast surface flow overnight will become south to southwest around 10 kts Thursday, and then light west to southwest behind the cold front tonight. Moderate to strong south to southwest flow aloft overnight will gradually diminish to moderate south to southwest on Thursday, and then light to moderate southwest Thursday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not develop at EKN overnight. Timing and coverage of showers and storms, and associated MVFR or worse conditions, may vary on Thursday. Formation of MVFR stratocu behind the cold front Thursday night may vary. Fog may start to form by 06Z Friday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/27/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR fog possible Friday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MPK NEAR TERM...TRM/MPK/26 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...TRM

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