Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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260 FXUS61 KRLX 110835 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 335 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Next upper trough and cold front move in tonight, with a stronger upper trough on Tuesday. Another cold shot arrives late next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1220 AM Monday...Forecast remains on track and no changes are needed at this time. As of 530 PM Sunday... No changes necessary. As of 155 PM Sunday... Upper level pattern remains active with the closed upper level low anchored over the Hudson Bay area. Another vort max within the flow aloft will drop in from the Great Lakes over the next few hours. Sensible weather impacts will be more low mid level cloud cover that will bring flurries and low end chances for measurable precipitation over the northeast mountains later tonight after 05Z. Flow then flattens out Monday ahead of the next system which brings a clipper system in for the short term period. For the most part, with the exception of the aforementioned northeast mountains tonight, the near term forecast is dry. Warm front aloft brings a tight temperature gradient and increase in 850hPa temperatures Monday, so should see a recovery in the temperatures across the southern and western zones to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 335 AM Monday... Models continue to indicate a clipper-type system will move away from the region on Tuesday with gusty northwest winds bringing in another round of cold air. Everything points to a decent mountain snow event Tuesday and Tuesday night as moisture and lift in the dendritic growth zone combine. Models also indicate winds could be quite strong with wind gusts across the lowland counties in the 20 to 25 mph range and in excess of 30 mph across the mountain counties. Would not be too surprised to see some gusts near 40 mph across the highest elevations. Combination of colder air and these gusty winds will make it feel even colder with wind chill values below zero in the mountains and in the single digits Tuesday night. Went with model blend for max temps Tuesday and Wednesday as well as lows Tuesday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 335 AM Monday... Another system swings through during this period. However. models are somewhat different with the timing and the track of the feature. Because of this uncertainty, have gone with the model blend for the forecast. Cold air remains in place for Thursday and Friday with warmer weather anticipated for Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1225 AM Monday... Expecting VFR through the TAF period, but there will be some VFR ceilings in the 4K to 5K feet range as a weak system passes across the north. Cold front will be approaching late Monday night into Tuesday morning, however, any restrictions should be after 06Z Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings overnight could come close to MVFR at CKB, EKN, or PKB. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 12/11/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Tuesday is forecast to have scattered snow showers across the entire area and IFR conditions will be possible at times, especially in the mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/26 NEAR TERM...MPK/SL/26 SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...MPK

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