Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 311513 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1113 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM UPDATE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TONIGHT...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12 SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40. THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TOWARD MON MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA. BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... VFR CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST PROTECTED VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26/DTC AVIATION...JMV/SL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.