Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 141831 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 231 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather to start the work and school week. High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but returning to unsettled pattern to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 225 PM Monday.. A low to the southwest continues to usher moisture into the area. An initial wave with showers should completely exit east of the area by mid afternoon. There will be a drier spell with isolated showers, before a second wave moves through overnight, tonight bringing more widespread rain. Low temperatures should be in the mid 60s throughout the area, with cooler temps in the mountains. It will stay cloudy overnight, with some clearing in the morning over Southeast Ohio. Light valley fog will develop overnight due to saturated ground, and become thicker by the early morning hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Monday... Weak impulse early on Tuesday may bring some scattered showers, but high pressure builds for a drier stretch of weather Tuesday night through midday Thursday. A system approaches Thursday afternoon for increased potential for showers/tstorms. Dynamics suggest a small potential for stronger storms, but believe most energy will be to our north for this system. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM Monday... An organized system moves to our northwest on Friday draping a cold front through our region for showers and tstorms early. High pressure builds Saturday for drier weather until the next system arrives Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM Monday... -shra exiting to the east of WV at 1730Z. Widespread MVFR cigs and vsbys continue to linger mainly along and east of a line from KCRW to KCKB. Some general improvement to VFR as the afternoon progresses, although after 04Z, fog formation is possible tonight, with widespread MVFR and IFR conditions developing, with local/isold LIFR/VLIFR across the higher terrain. As with previous forecast, confidence in widespread fog tonight is fairly low. After 14Z Tuesday, -shra will increase in coverage again, particularly across West Virginia and southwest Virginia, with widespread MVFR conditions developing once again. Light surface winds during the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of fog overnight in question. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms this week. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending on clouds. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/MC NEAR TERM...SL/CS SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...SL

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