Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 220600 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 200 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 200 AM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREV DISCN... NO BIG CHANGES IN LATE EVENING UPDATE FROM THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. AT 02Z...OUR CWA IN POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT. 00Z MONDAY 850 MB TEMP AT ILN AND PBZ DOWN 5 TO 6 DEGS C FROM 12Z SUNDAY. WE STILL EXPECT THAT STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850 MB TO FORM LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THINKING MAXIMUM MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN THE COOL POOL...08Z TO 16Z. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS THIN AND LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT MAXIMUM TIME PERIOD. DUE TO THE EARLY EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE CONTINUED SOME FOG THERE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z..BEFORE THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES ALL THOSE NOOKS AND CRANNIES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE BY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD. SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S IN THE LOW LANDS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DRIER AIR TAKING FIRM CONTROL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THIS AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL PRECLUDE FOG FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...BUT A STRATOCU DECK FORMING AND SPREADING SEWD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BENEATH FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LOWER TO MVFR FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST...ALREADY HAVING DONE SO AT PKB. CIGS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE TOP END OF IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK MON. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AFTER DAYBREAK MON...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE INTO MON AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MON NT WILL BRING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR FOG FORMING IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY 06Z TUE. LIGHT NW SFC FLOW THROUGH MON WILL BECOME CALM MON NT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH MON AND BECOME LIGHT N MON NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET AND BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MON MAY VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING BORDERLINE IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS MON MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/22/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.