Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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634 FXUS61 KRLX 142357 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 657 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure into Friday. A clipper system then passes north of the area Friday night. Weak system brings light rain Sunday. Another clipper crosses Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 655 PM Thursday... After some deliberation, have added low end POPs to the mountains centered around the 12Z time frame tonight with the weak low level frontogenesis and surface trough in place. Models are definitely inconsistent with this, but think there is enough low level moisture depth with this weak forcing to get light snow. No accumulations in the forecast. As of 100 PM Thursday... Dirty high pressure building over the area, but appears that some cold air stratus and left over lake effect clouds will become trapped under the high. With patches of clouds floating around, it leads to low confidence tonight on where clouds will be. This also makes overnight lows rather tricky. With winds becoming light, thinking there will be enough holes for temperatures to drop near dew points. A wave moves well north of the area on Friday. It will create a little moisture increase in the north in the afternoon. This could be enough for few flakes due to the cold 850 mb temperatures, so will keep some small pops. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Thursday... Upper heights build into the region Friday night and Saturday, allowing for an overall warming trend. S/W trof approaching the area weakens as ridging builds across the southern states. I still expect some light rain with this system Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM Thursday... The warming trend that began in the short term will carry over in the extended before cold air comes back late Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper trof temporary makes a return across the region. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 620 PM Thursday... Bulk of the ceilings will hover just above the VFR threshold, though low level moisture will keep the chances for MVFR ceilings going at CKB, BKW, and EKN. No restrictions otherwise, but cloud deck between 2500ft and 3500ft will be stubborn and tough to erode. Higher elevation wind gusts pushing 20kts for the end of the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location of stratus deck overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... Another round of snow is expected across the northern portion of the area Friday night, with IFR conditions possible in heavier snow showers. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...RPY/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.