Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271956 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 256 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY. DRIER...COLDER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK TO CLOSE OUT 2014. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOST OF WEST VIRGINIA IS BASKING IN THE SUN AT THE MOMENT...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND TURNS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT USHERING WAVES OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. LUCKILY...MOST MODEL SIGNALS INDICATE THAT TOTAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE BOOSTED THE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO NOTCHED UP THE WINDS IN SE OH PER HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DRIES OUT SUN NT...AS A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...ORIGINATING FROM THE EXTREME SWRN CONUS THIS MORNING...MOVES ON THROUGH. HUNG ON TO A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MON...ALTHOUGH MOST OF IT SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE...AS MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOW BENEATH FLAT W TO SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A FLAT WAVE ALSO BRUSHES BY JUST TO THE SE. MON NT DOES NOT BRING MUCH CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...OR ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THAT CROSSES ON TUE...AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS HANGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MON NT INTO TUE MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL S/W IS THE FIRST FEATURE COMING OF A NEW LARGE S/W TROUGH DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE WRN CONUS AGAIN...AND BRINGS IN COLDER...DRIER AIR AS IT PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...THE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BRING A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION TUE EVEN BACK INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AS THE COLDER AIR BECOMES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH IN LOWER LAYERS. THERE MAY BE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WRN AND NRN EDGES OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV MON MORNING. MON NT INTO TUE MORNING IS THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES GET BELOW FREEZING BEFORE WE COMPLETELY LOSE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THIS OCCURS IN A NARROW SW TO NE ORIENTED SLIVER THROUGH CENTRAL WV...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE A BIT OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE. MODELS RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION SUN NT THROUGH TUE. BLENDED IN NAM...MET AND GFS-BASED MOS FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCST BY TUE BUT OVERALL THE MODELS APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE AREA THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 850MB TEMP TROUGH ENTERING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH THIS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DOES LOOK RATHER LIMITED...SO COULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLAKES DRIFTING THROUGH THE AIR AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR A BULK OF THE LONG TERM BEFORE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A POOR CONSISTENCY RECORD THIS SEASON...SO STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF POPS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR TRANSITIONING TO MVFR AND ULTIMATELY IFR BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW LOW WILL THE CLOUD DECK GET. WENT WITH IFR OVER MUCH OF AREA IN A STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED OVER THE AREA TYPE OF PATTERN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH BECOMING MODERATE. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR ONSET AND OFFSET MAY VARY FROM TAFS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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