Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191826 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 126 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Clearing tonight. High pressure Monday through Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again through Thanksgiving. Cold front crosses Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Sunday... Upper level disturbance is starting to enhance precipitation this afternoon. This disturbance will provide deeper moisture as Lake Michigan plume shifts into northern WV. Expect a period of decent upslope snowfall over the northern mountains this afternoon and evening. Will continue with the winter weather advisory for the higher elevations. A high pressure system then builds over the region providing clearing overnight, remaining in place on Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... High pressure passes south of the area Monday, and then moves east, as upper level flow backs. This results in deep layer southwest flow Tuesday, and hence milder weather. A cold front reverses this trend, as it slips through Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The associated upper level short wave trough passes north of the area, leaving the area on the anticyclonic shear side of the jet stream. This, along with little inflow ahead of the front, spells little precipitation associated with this front. Continued the slight chance in the mountains for Tuesday night. High pressure builds in Wednesday and Wednesday night, bringing a return to the dry, chilly weather, although clouds associated with another upper level short wave trough approaching from the west, and low pressure passing south of the area, will limit radiative cooling somewhat Wednesday night. No deviations needed from central guidance temperatures, other than to lower a bit Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... High pressure will dominate Thursday through friday, with more dry, chilly weather, even as an upper level short wave trough crosses. A stronger short wave trough deepens as it crosses the area Saturday, driving a cold front through. Despite the amplification of the trough, only the small chance for light precipitation is forecast for Saturday into Saturday night, with little inflow ahead of the front Saturday. Models continue in good agreement on this system, with faster timing compared with the previous forecast. No changes were needed to central guidance temperatures and dew points, which trended lower at the end, but still a little above deterministic guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1200 PM Sunday... A cold air stratus deck will continue over the region this afternoon. The deck will generally be VFR in OH and KY, becoming MVFR approaching the WV mountains. A disturbance moving through this afternoon will enhance the rain/snow showers today over northern WV. This could cause some restrictions, with the lower restrictions in the mountains aided by upslope flow and being predominately snow. The showers will tapper off this evening as the disturbance move away. Gradual clearing can be expected overnight. VFR conditions can be expected Monday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions with rain/snow showers may vary. Timing of clearing overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L M H H M M M H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H L M M L M M L H L M L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for WVZ522-523- 526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...RPY

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