-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 162356
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
750 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH. NEW FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FASTER LOWERING POPS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
REMOVED POPS IN THE NORTH. ALWAYS HAVE TO BE A BIT LEERY
THOUGH...WITH THE FRONT STILL STALLED OUT FROM NEAR MGW TO CMH.

ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES BASED ON PREVIOUS RAIN.

A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ON AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AOA 60 DEGREES IN MANY
SPOTS...SOME OF THAT HIGH RH MAY REMAIN IN VAPOR FORM.  SO A TOUGH
FOG FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER
LOW DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH
A BUILDING EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. WHILE THERE ARE SOME PLACEMENT
AND SPEED DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WEAK UPPER FEATURE...THERE LOOKS TO
BE A BROAD CIRCULATION OF WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE HARD TO FIND BY SUNDAY...WILL FOCUS POPS IN A
DIURNAL NATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL STILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD START TO EXIT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM DAY TO DAY OR EVEN NIGHT TO NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE IN
A RATHER CLOUDY AND MOIST PATTERN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR
NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CWA IN NE PORTION OF AN UPPER
RIDGE...HOWEVER A SW TROUGH RESIDES ON ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
AND IS SLOW TO PUSH EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA IN DISTURBED
WEATHER THROUGH DAY 4...WITH PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. LITTLE BREAK...IF ANY...IN THE
AGITATED WEATHER PATTERN AS NEXT SYSTEM IS QUICK TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SOLNS WITH THE HANDLING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE. STAYED NEAR WPC GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
SAVE FOR LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WAS FASTER DECREASING LEFTOVER CONVECTION AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.

ALSO WAS A BIT FASTER DEVELOPING AREAS OF FOG LIFTING UP OUT OF
HOLLOWS...IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN. YET...LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM
MEDIUM TO LOW...DUE TO QUESTIONS OF COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THAT
FOG...PLUS UNCERTAINTY TO THE HEIGHT AND COVERAGE OF THE LOW STRATUS
FORMING OVERNIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HOLDING AOA 60 DEGREES
MAY HINDER CONDENSATION INTO THAT STRATUS AND FOG...DESPITE HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  IN ANY CASE HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 12Z
WITH THE RELATIVELY EARLY SUNRISE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

REDEVELOPED CONVECTION BY 18Z FRIDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION AND COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 05/17/13
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF/INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26/TAX
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...KTB