Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222337 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 737 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO THURSDAY. SECONDARY WAVE THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATER ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL. WET WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA AS EXPECTED. DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST CREATING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOOKING LIKE ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY OVER MOUNTAINS WITH OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE. EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT ONLY EXPECTED IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. INCREASED BL FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES 18-21Z...AND END UP TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT. GOOD CAPE/INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NO REAL STRONG DYNAMICS...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS. HOWEVER...COULD STILL GET SEVERE HAIL OR DMG WINDS WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE HWO. SPC HAS AREA IN A SEE TEXT FOR SEVERE WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING DRIER BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS STILL EXPECTED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...QUICKLY IMPROVING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A COOL AND MUGGY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR DEWPOINTS...PERHAPS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY 12-15Z THURSDAY WITH CHANCES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MID DAY THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE IN A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHORTLY BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...SO HOLD ON INTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOST OF THE LOWLAND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON SKY COVER...CODED UP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE LOWLANDS BUT SOME INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD MAY REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNS WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED BY MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT- OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY MONDAY. WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 06-09Z...WITH ANY FOG PROJECTED TO BURN OFF 12-13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 16Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/23/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SECONDLY...IFR POSSIBLE LATER WITH POST FRONTAL CEILINGS ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. && .EQUIPMENT... PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JS EQUIPMENT...JS

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