Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230937 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 437 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR. INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06 TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE. GENERALLY WENT A BIT COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY. CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY 12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS. MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH COLDER. DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF. THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY. WILL INCLUDE SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE MTNS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE SUNDAY COULD VARY. LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 11/23/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ033>037. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JW

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