Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271036 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 636 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOOTER AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SYNOPTICALLY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING NW OHIO AND N INDIANA. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT REACHING NW CWA AROUND 15Z...CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER 19Z-20Z...ALL THE WHILE WEAKENING AS IT SINKS SOUTH. HAVE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY FADING INTO TONIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR CWA TO THE SOUTH...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN QUARTER OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN MAINLY WV/VA PORTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE AVERAGE ACROSS CWA. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND WARMING THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW. BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW FLOW ALOFT. AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS TO SW VA. THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ON THE WEDNESDAY MORNING GRAVEYARD SHIFT...ENOUGH CONSISTENCY WITH THE 00Z MODELS TO JUMP INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM...AND INCREASE POPS TO 60 PERCENT/LIKELY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR SUNDAY. NO FRONT OR WELL DEFINED SURFACE SYSTEM...BUT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FOG HAS BEEN A BIT MORE SPORADIC THIS MORNING THAN LAST. ANTICIPATE ANY REMAINING FOG DISSIPATING BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN CWA TODAY. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT FARTHER EAST BASED ON TRENDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN AMENDMENT/TEMPO SHOULD A CELL APPROACH A TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN WV LOWLANDS. FARTHER EAST...CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT AND SOME FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOW STRATUS VS. FOG LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...MZ

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