Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010939 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 439 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM FRONT TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TIMING AND AMOUNT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MESO NAM AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND NOON. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COULD START AS A WINTER MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AM CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH RALEIGH AND FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD TIGHT WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY. TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR 70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING AS IS. AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM. ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND THE FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO. STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 03/01/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L H H M M H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ035-036. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...RPY

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