Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 101737 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 137 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR TODAY INTO SATURDAY. MORE SYSTEMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... NO CHANGES THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT IN H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE. IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ISOLATED AREAS OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH. 1 KM FOG CHANNEL SHOWS FOG HAS FORMED ALONG MANY RIVER VALLEYS OVER WV BY 07Z. THE AXIS OF THE H5 TROF EXIT LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT SOME MINIMAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THROUGH GREAT LAKES...WITH MID OHIO VALLEY FALLING UNDER WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG HPC MODELS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN HOW MUCH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RELIED MAINLY ON SREF PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR POP FIELDS...WITH ISOLD TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING EACH AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED THE ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR SUNDAY...AS A SYSTEM PROVIDES DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RELIED ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THOUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ISOLATED CONVECTION ONGOING WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5KFT. NEEDED THE VCTS WORDING IN HTS WITH CELLS IN PROXIMITY TO THE AIRPORT. DROP THIS BY 20Z. CONVECTION WANES AS HEATING WANES THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. LATE VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS LIKELY TO BOUNCE...GIVEN THE TRENDS OVER LAST NIGHT IN A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERE. KEEP THE IFR/LIFR PERIODS CONFINED TO LATE...AFTER 08Z AND IMPROVING BY 12Z FRIDAY. MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY...EKN AND BKW MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A STRAY CELL OR TWO...BUT NOTHING NEEDED IN PREVAILING AT THIS TIME FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT 06Z THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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