Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291756 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 156 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trof will keep the weather unsettled into early next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter interlude during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Latest radar mosaic shows scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing across the region at this time. With continued heating...expect the areal coverage to continue to increase. Models indicate a trough axis will approach the forecast area from the west tonight and then remain in the area on Saturday. Several disturbances will move through the upper level flow, one this evening and another on Saturday. The disturbance this evening should result in some showers and storms overnight. However, expect the areal coverage to decrease with the loss of sunshine. with abundant low-level moisture in place, expect a repeat of last night with some stratus and valley fog developing. Expect conditions will slowly improve after sunrise with some sunshine possible by late morning. Another disturbance will combine with daytime heating and low- level moisture to result in the development of showers and storms by late morning on Saturday. The storms should become more numerous across northern and western portions of our forecast area and because of this, I have gone with likely pops in those areas. PW values still expected to be around two inches with each of these features. This moisture and light deep layer flow will continue to support locally heavy downpours. Because temperatures looked good, I did not make any significant changes. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Moisture remains over the region through the weekend and into Monday...although precipitable water comes down slightly. Models showing several disturbances moving through...but timing and placement varies by model. Due to these differences...will keep pops fairly generic with chances of showers and thunderstorms...highest in the afternoon and evening hours. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Using a combination of WPC and consensus models...indicated building heights across the region allowing for hot and humid temperatures. Went with diurnal showers and storms through the term...especially in the mountains. Ridge will diminish toward end of term as a front approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR, local IFR, conditions will continue to develop across the area into the evening hours. Outside of these storms, VFR conditions should prevail. With the loss of daytime heating, expect areal coverage and intensity will decrease. Abundant moisture and an upper level disturbance could result in a few storms continuing overnight.undant In addition, fog and low clouds are likely to form again overnight tonight, but with higher clouds and possible precipitation, predictability of associated IFR conditions is low. After sunrise on Saturday, conditions should improve. However... showers and thunderstorms should once again develop after 16Z. Light southwest winds should become light and variable tonight and then become light southeast again by late Saturday morning. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of storms could be higher than expected today and tonight. The fog and low cloud forecast for overnight tonight depends upon higher clouds and precipitation. A thunderstorm may directly impact an airport with IFR conditions anytime through 18z Saturday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions in low clouds and/or fog during the overnight into the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and thunderstorms mainly Monday afternoon and evening. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JSH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.