Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 291756
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
156 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
An upper level trof will keep the weather unsettled into early
next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter
interlude during the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest radar mosaic shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
were developing across the region at this time. With continued
heating...expect the areal coverage to continue to increase.
Models indicate a trough axis will approach the forecast area from
the west tonight and then remain in the area on Saturday. Several
disturbances will move through the upper level flow, one this
evening and another on Saturday.
The disturbance this evening should result in some showers and
storms overnight. However, expect the areal coverage to decrease
with the loss of sunshine.
with abundant low-level moisture in place, expect a repeat of
last night with some stratus and valley fog developing.
Expect conditions will slowly improve after sunrise with some
sunshine possible by late morning.
Another disturbance will combine with daytime heating and low-
level moisture to result in the development of showers and storms
by late morning on Saturday. The storms should become more
numerous across northern and western portions of our forecast area
and because of this, I have gone with likely pops in those areas.
PW values still expected to be around two inches with each of
these features. This moisture and light deep layer flow will
continue to support locally heavy downpours.
Because temperatures looked good, I did not make any significant
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Moisture remains over the region through the weekend and into
Monday...although precipitable water comes down slightly. Models
showing several disturbances moving through...but timing and
placement varies by model. Due to these differences...will keep pops
fairly generic with chances of showers and thunderstorms...highest
in the afternoon and evening hours.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Using a combination of WPC and consensus models...indicated
building heights across the region allowing for hot and humid
temperatures. Went with diurnal showers and storms through the
term...especially in the mountains. Ridge will diminish toward end
of term as a front approaches from the west.
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR, local IFR, conditions will
continue to develop across the area into the evening hours.
Outside of these storms, VFR conditions should prevail.
With the loss of daytime heating, expect areal coverage and
intensity will decrease. Abundant moisture and an upper level
disturbance could result in a few storms continuing overnight.undant
In addition, fog and low clouds are likely to form again
overnight tonight, but with higher clouds and possible
precipitation, predictability of associated IFR conditions is low.
After sunrise on Saturday, conditions should improve. However...
showers and thunderstorms should once again develop after 16Z.
Light southwest winds should become light and variable tonight and
then become light southeast again by late Saturday morning.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of storms could be higher than
expected today and tonight. The fog and low cloud forecast for
overnight tonight depends upon higher clouds and precipitation. A
thunderstorm may directly impact an airport with IFR conditions
anytime through 18z Saturday.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions in low clouds and/or fog during the overnight into
the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and
thunderstorms mainly Monday afternoon and evening.