Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290217 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1017 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low brings unsettled weather into the area tonight. This system will affect the area through the work week, before pulling out over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1015 PM Wednesday... Have reworked the POPs to include higher values in the near term based on radar trends and high resolution models once again. Also took a glimpse at the new 00Z NAM for comparison sake. In the end, no wholesale changes, but there are some decent increases over the northeast mountains. As of 145 PM Wednesday... A broad and deep upper low over the Great Lakes region will move south over the OH Valley and WV tonight. H500 charts show a vorticity max producing a front for tonight into Thursday. Despite of good forcing, low level moisture is not enough to sustain organize convection. Expect periods of showers or storms which each h500 vorticity maximum through the period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... Large, anomalously deep upper level low meanders in KY Friday before drifting north over into the weekend. This spells a cool and showery regime, most notably across the northern half of the CWA. As with previous forecasts, the highest pops remain across these locales. We will have to watch for the potential for robust tsra during the afternoon give the shear profiles and mid level lapse rates. Diurnally driven instability accentuated with any breaks in the clouds will ultimately determine just how strong any cells would become. As mentioned, the upper low will pull north into the OH Valley on Saturday. As a result, the upper low will loosen its grip over the region with improving weather. However, there will still be some scattered shra to content with over parts of SE OH. Temps were generally close to previous numbers with the coolest daytime highs across western zones. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... The pesky upper low will be out of our hair Sunday. In its wake the region will experience rising heights and warming conditions, potentially to well above normal once again next week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 PM Wednesday... Upper level low dominant to the west of the area through the period. Swath of showers is having a hard time making any headway to the east given the relatively stationary motion of the upper low. Near term forecast models decrease the coverage of the swath in the coming a point where prevailing conditions tonight for SHRA may not be necessary. Expect coverage to increase again after 12Z. MVFR conditions expected in showers/TSRA. May need brief IFR at the onset of convection for terminals...but cannot put in prevailing for this issuance. With the moistening of the column...expecting the ceilings to come down to MVFR tonight...and IFR in BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Some question in timing of ceilings tonight. A lot of stock put in the high res models on diminishing showers to the west. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 09/29/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H M M M L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Areas of ifr possible in showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.