Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 290217
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1017 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016
A large upper level low brings unsettled weather into the area
tonight. This system will affect the area through the work week,
before pulling out over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1015 PM Wednesday...
Have reworked the POPs to include higher values in the near term
based on radar trends and high resolution models once again. Also
took a glimpse at the new 00Z NAM for comparison sake. In the
end, no wholesale changes, but there are some decent increases
over the northeast mountains.
As of 145 PM Wednesday...
A broad and deep upper low over the Great Lakes region will move
south over the OH Valley and WV tonight. H500 charts show a
vorticity max producing a front for tonight into Thursday. Despite
of good forcing, low level moisture is not enough to sustain
Expect periods of showers or storms which each h500 vorticity
maximum through the period.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...
Large, anomalously deep upper level low meanders in KY Friday
before drifting north over into the weekend. This spells a cool
and showery regime, most notably across the northern half of the
CWA. As with previous forecasts, the highest pops remain across
these locales. We will have to watch for the potential for robust
tsra during the afternoon give the shear profiles and mid level
lapse rates. Diurnally driven instability accentuated with any
breaks in the clouds will ultimately determine just how strong any
cells would become.
As mentioned, the upper low will pull north into the OH Valley on
Saturday. As a result, the upper low will loosen its grip over the
region with improving weather. However, there will still be some
scattered shra to content with over parts of SE OH.
Temps were generally close to previous numbers with the coolest
daytime highs across western zones.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...
The pesky upper low will be out of our hair Sunday. In its wake
the region will experience rising heights and warming conditions,
potentially to well above normal once again next week.
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM Wednesday...
Upper level low dominant to the west of the area through the
period. Swath of showers is having a hard time making any headway
to the east given the relatively stationary motion of the upper
low. Near term forecast models decrease the coverage of the swath
in the coming hours...to a point where prevailing conditions
tonight for SHRA may not be necessary.
Expect coverage to increase again after 12Z. MVFR conditions
expected in showers/TSRA. May need brief IFR at the onset of
convection for terminals...but cannot put in prevailing for this
With the moistening of the column...expecting the ceilings to come
down to MVFR tonight...and IFR in BKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Some question in timing of ceilings tonight.
A lot of stock put in the high res models on diminishing showers
to the west.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 09/29/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H M M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H M M M L
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Areas of ifr possible in showers and thunderstorms through