Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290534 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 134 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AT 01Z HAVE FRONT NEAR CKB TO CRW. OUR 925 MB VAD WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER INTO THE WEST. STILL HAVE FRONT REACHING TOWARD EKN BY 04Z...BUT PROBABLY DELAYED TIL 06Z VCNTY BKW. IF YOUR RECALL...WE MENTIONED THE RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT...EVEN WHEN IT WAS BACK IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. THAT IS CERTAINLY COMING INTO PLAY...WITH SOME RAIN AMOUNTS OF .5 TO 1.0. A SIGN OF THE CHANGE OF SEASONS...AS PCPN INTENSITIES HAVE VERY LITTLE TO DO WITH DAY VERSUS NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A POST FRONTAL WAVE IS LIFTING OUT OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 01Z AND HEADING OUR WAY. YET...CLOUD TOPS WARMING RECENTLY WITH THAT FEATURE. WHILE DRIER AIR WAS QUICKLY COMING INTO OUR INTERIOR SE OHIO COUNTIES...WILL BE SLOWER LOWERING POP FROM HTS-CRW TO EKN WITH THE KY WAVE. ALSO SLOWED THE START TIME OF THE SHOWERS FROM THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY DOWN THRU BKW THIS EVENING. SO IN OTHERWORDS...TIGHTENING UP THE POP GRADIENTS. WE CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. TOUGH CALL ON THE 12Z POP FOR CKB TO CKB. HAVE CKB JUST ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE 12Z POP GRADIENT...WITH CRW ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE POP GRADIENT FENCE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... QUIET BUT COOL WX REGIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CAA WITH PASSAGE OF DRY UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY RESULT INCREASE IN STRATOCU IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THERMAL TROF PASSES...THE AREA SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM W TO E THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CAA SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT TO SNOW SHOWERS BY 00Z. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HAVE FRONT NEAR KCKB-KBKW NEAR 06Z WITH LOCAL LIFR AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FRM CENTRAL WV TO POINTS EAST AND SOUTH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN WAKE OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SLOWER IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COALFIELDS. WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CLOUDS FROM KCRW-KBKW TO KEKN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS FRONT HANGS FOR A BIT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 12Z TO 15Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE IMPROVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS MAY VARY. MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 10/29/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND EVEN IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/MZ/30/KMC NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KMC

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