Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291005 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 605 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT TONIGHT. TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. GETTING A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH CLOUD ADVECTION OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH UNDOUBTEDLY HELPED PREVENT FOG AT HTS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH A STEADY LIGHT WIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF AN UNTRUSTWORTHY WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD SPARK SOME EVENING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY. AFTER THIS BRIEF AND MODEST COOL DOWN...A WARM FRONT RETURNS TO BRING THE AREA BACK INTO VERY WARM SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST...MARKING THE TRANSITION OF THE UPPER LEVELS INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE SHORT TERM EVEN THOUGH THE TRANSITION BEGINS IN THE NEAR TERM. GETTING BACK TO THE WARM FRONT...USING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR TIMING BRINGS CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND THE 00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ALWAYS LIKE TO GIVE A MODEST BUFFER ON THE FRONT OF WARM FRONTS AS THE MODELS CAN HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES. WILL BE FIGHTING A SETTING SUN...SO THIS WILL NOT HELP THE CONVECTION...AND IN THE END...THINK A SCATTERED CONVECTION FORECAST IS BEST. MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OVER BKW KEEP THE CHANCES UNDER 40 PERCENT. WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASE TOWARDS 12Z. POPS TRANSITION TO THE NORTH...AND MAY BE ABLE TO EVEN CLEAR MUCH OF THE SKY OVER THE TUG FORK VALLEY BY DAWN. TEMPERATURE WISE...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH AND IS CURRENTLY BRINGING COOLER AIR...VALUES REBOUND AGAIN TOMORROW BACK TO THE MID 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR 70 FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AFTER THE FOG MIXES OUT THIS MORNING...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 21Z TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY. SOME CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCES LESS THAN 40 PERCENT...AND CANNOT USE IN PREVAILING. BKW WOULD BE THE ONLY CANDIDATE AS OF NOW...BUT CANNOT ELIMINATE CHANCES FOR WEAK CONVECTION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WIND WILL PREVENT FOG TONIGHT. AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE AFTER RAIN AT ANY TERMINAL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT COULD VARY. MAY NEED HIGHER CHANCES/PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AT BKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 08/29/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...26

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