Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290602 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 202 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and a few thunderstorms through as cold front passes. Drying Monday. Cold fronts cross Tuesday and Wednesday. Unsettled again next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 2 AM Monday... Forecast on track as showers move through the middle Ohio Valley, along with upslope enhanced showers in northeast West Virginia. As of 1010 PM Sunday... Cut back POPs across the south. Also shrunk the area of thunder mention, but did not take it out completely due to the cluster of lightning in southeastern Indiana. As of 230 PM Sunday... Added the flash flood watch to the northern counties, but convection proving slow to fire today with a few weak cells here and there. High res models have been consistent on increasing coverage over the next few hours, and have followed this thinking with the POPs. Flash flood guidance across the northern tier is low since the activity last night. Cold front enters the area ofter 04Z with the next batch of showers and storms, fading as it moves to the east and its surface low racing northeastward. Next upper trough will be quick to follow into the Great Lakes, so not expecting any extended periods of high pressure heading into the short term. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Sunday... Upper level low centered over eastern Canada will be the dominant feature this period. Around this upper low will come one weak cool front through the area Tuesday, and another one on Wednesday. These fronts will have limited moisture to work on, so we look for scattered showers at best with the front, which means most of the time will be dry. Temperatures will generally be seasonable with only minor changes in airmasses. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Sunday... Upper level low shifts a bit northward which will allow some upper ridging and dry high pressure on Thursday. Thereafter, there are models differences concerning a southern stream system exiting the southern mountains for Friday into the weekend. While some models tend to keep a more easterly track and keeping the system just south of us, and others bring the system up across the Ohio valley, all bring unsettled weather for Friday into the weekend. Instability is a big question, so will tend to keep thunder chances diurnally dependent. Temperatures will tend to be on the rise, especially at night, but with no extreme temperatures in sight. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 2 AM Monday... A cold front will move through overnight with showers and potentially a rumble of thunder. Not expecting real heavy rain with this, so kept visibilities in VFR -- but should a heavier shower head toward a TAF site, it may need amended. Ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR and possibly some IFR in the mountains as the front passes. Expect MVFR to gradually break up and lift from west to east Monday morning, with high cu bases in the afternoon, aoa 6kft. Another cold front approaching from the west may bring enough clouds and wind to preclude fog formation Monday night, save for the valleys of the southern WV coal fields again. Surface flow will be light west to southwest while light to moderate west to northwest flow aloft overnight into Monday morning becomes light west to southwest for Monday afternoon and night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Occurrence and timing of MVFR or worse conditions may vary overnight, and may need to add visibility restrictions for heavier showers. Timing of improvement from MVFR ceilings in morning cu Monday may vary, but confidence is high in high cu bases Monday afternoon, as the mixing layer deepens. Fog cannot entirely be ruled out toward dawn Monday or toward 06Z Tuesday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/29/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H M H L M L M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H M M M M H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in isolated showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday, and in fog Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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