Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011809 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 209 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING CLOUDS AND SOME PASSING SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOL FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... MESSY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES FLOWING BY AT 500MB. CURRENTLY HAVE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER DRIFTING NE ACROSS CWA...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION IN KY...HEADED TOWARD CWA AT AROUND 30-35KTS. TRYING TO REFLECT THIS LINE WITH SOME HIGHER POPS. FOR TONIGHT...GFS/NAM/RAP ALL SHOWING ONE LEADING SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER...SO ADDED SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH THAT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE FRONT MAY START WASHING OUT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING OVER...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 1500+J/KG CAPE...BUT THINK THAT IS OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...HAVE DECENT SHEAR MAX MOVING THROUGH OHIO -- 35-40KTS -- COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ALSO NOTE THAT SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FOR OHIO VALLEY PORTION OF CWA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD THAT TO HWO. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY. KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS. INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH. BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC SOLUTION. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LAST BITS OF THE LOW MVFR STRATUS FINALLY LIFTING. OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND ANY SHOWER THAT PASSES OVER A TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR. INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS. DID INCLUDE TEMPOS AT CRW AND HTS FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS COMING THROUGH KY. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF FOG AND CLOUDS. LEANED TOWARD LAV PROBABILITIES FOR VISBY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK. FOR TOMORROW WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...MVFR TO IFR MAY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM...BUT LOW TONIGHT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT. MAY NEED AMENDMENT FOR CONVECTION. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...MZ

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