Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271830 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 230 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front exits to the east this evening/tonight. High pressure Friday into Saturday. A weak cold front Saturday night or Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday... Cold front only a few miles from the Ohio River as of this issuance. Shower coverage has been less robust than expected from the earlier update this morning, but most locations have seen rain at some point or another through the early afternoon time. Leaving the potential in the POP grids for another weak line of showers to form along the front. but the bulk of the rain should be well into the mountains by early evening. Low stratus upstream and behind the cold front will settle in, and isolated light showers will be possible through the overnight in the northeast mountains. Could have substituted drizzle in for that time frame, but think measurable precipitation after 00Z could occur. Pressure rises expected into the overnight as high pressure settles in. Western zones may start clearing overnight with the pressure gradient decreasing and the 925mb easing. Some late valley fog cannot be ruled out tonight, but the timing is in question as to whether all 3 of these factors occur before dawn. Slightly cooler and predominantly clear conditions dominate Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 305 AM Thursday... Models show sfc high pressure under zonal flow at H500 without any shortwave running through. Under southwest flow at the sfc and H850 temps reaching 12C, expect dry weather with above normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Used a blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 305 PM Thursday... Despite of uncertainty in the extended periods, like the idea of the gfs model with a clipper like features passing north of the area Saturday and Sunday. Coded higher PoPs Saturday and Saturday night with an associated cold front. Trended drier the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 PM Thursday... Cold front is fast approaching the Ohio Valley, and with it, a wind shift of 30 to 60 degrees /veering/ can be expected with wind gusts 15 to 25kts for an hour or two behind the front. Upstream from the cold front lies a stratus deck with ceilings in the 2-3kft range, that may come down to the 1-2kft range in the mountain terminals. This stratus could start eroding overnight west to east, and leaving the potential for very late overnight/early morning fog development for the lowlands. For now, the thinking is that it may occur too late, and rainfall across the area may be too sporadic until that time to prime the boundary layer. The result is a more conservative forecast, with very little in the way of IFR in the forecast. The lower MVFR stratus should erode out lastly in the CKB area...just before 18Z Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of gusty winds or MVFR conditions later today may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H L M M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M L H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H L M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L M H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Widespread IFR not expected, although isolated valley fog in the late overnights may occur. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.