Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151847 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 147 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front passes through the region tonight through Tuesday. Arctic air mid week. Turning milder for the end of the week, as the arctic high exits.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Monday... Low pressure passes north of the area tonight and into the Great Lakes and continues Northeastward during the day on Tuesday. The trailing cold front with this low slowly moves through the area tonight and during the day tomorrow, bringing a band of snow with it. With a positive tilted upper trof movement of the front will be relatively slow to push through. Model QPF equates to about 1 to 3 inches across the Western lowlands of SE OH, NE KY, Western WV and SW VA. Slightly high amounts of 2 to 4 in the higher elevations of the Eastern mountains of WV. Current advisories look good for the area. Starting in the west and continuing an eastward progression through the night tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 530 AM Monday... Upper trough and surface cold front will sweep east across the CWA in the short term period, with light snow showers continuing across the region for Tuesday. Snow will become lighter and fluffier in nature as we progress through the day on Tuesday, and accumulate easier. In addition, temps will remain somewhat steady, or fall slightly before leveling out. Winter weather advisory will continue on Tuesday, and may need to be expanded in areal coverage on subsequent shifts. Have a general 1 to 3 inches expected across much of WV and southwest VA during the day on Tuesday, with light upslope snow showers expected on Tuesday night across the higher terrain counties. Drier, but colder for Wednesday, although may continue to see light upslope snow showers or even periods of flurries. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 530 AM Monday... Dry to start the long term period, and pleasantly warmer, as upper heights build across the region in response to deepening upper trough across the western U.S., and surface low development. Warm frontal boundary associated with this low will move north across the area Saturday into Sunday, with light rain shower activity forming, with the cold front arriving by early next week, with rain changing to snow showers. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1020 AM Monday... Quick update to adjust cloud and -SHSN coverage in TAFs. Otherwise current forecast looks on track. As of 135 PM Monday... VFR conditions will prevail over the region the rest of the afternoon hours. With the possibility of some brief MVFR at PKB late this afternoon in snow showers from a PKB to HTS line. A cold front is expected to push through the region tonight and Tuesday. Southerly winds out ahead of this front will switch to the WNW behind the front. Some gusts to 15-20kts are possible near the front. MVFR to IFR conditions will progress from west to east this afternoon and overnight in cigs and vsbys in snow showers, and continue through the day on Tuesday as the front pushes through. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR to IFR in snow may vary late this afternoon and tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H M H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR likely in snow Tuesday into Tuesday night, and possibly lingering into Wednesday in the mountains, mostly in the wake of a cold front that crosses tonight and Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ520>522-525-526. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Tuesday night for WVZ024>026-033-034-515>519. OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for OHZ076-085>087. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ066-067- 075-083-084. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Tuesday night for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MC NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JS

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