Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171831 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 231 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure through the weekend and most of next week, providing warm afternoons and cool nights. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1230 PM Sunday... A high pressure system will remain over the area. Low level moisture is trapped under the high however, possible allowing for some afternoon showers in the WV mountains. Expect dense river valley fog to form again tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Sunday... Weak surface reflection of a front across central Ohio finishes its dying process this period with little to account for in the sensible weather by Tuesday. Meanwhile, Irma should remain well to our east, brushing the eastern seaboard per the latest NHC guidance. We remain under 5h ridge with weak gradient flow and some trapped boundary layer moisture. Thus, a continuation of fair forecast with unseasonably warm temperatures and a few diurnal showers still in the offing through mid week.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Sunday... Large scale anticyclonic circulation at the mid and upper levels becomes entrenched over the northeastern United States. Kept current long term trends in place. It is a weak easterly flow pattern with some low level moisture in place. Just enough there to kick off a few mountains showers each day. Also relied on blend for temperature forecast. Temperatures will run unseasonably warm for this time of year.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1230 PM Sunday... VFR cumulus can be expected this afternoon. Some showers could form this afternoon in the northern and central mountains of WV, providing a brief restriction. Expect VFR conditions early this evening, but dense river valley fog will quickly form tonight. The fog will burn off by mid morning Monday, with a VFR cumulus deck once again forming. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Scattered showers in the northern and central WV mountains this afternoon are not included in the TAFs due to their limited coverage. Timing of fog formation tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...RPY

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