Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030546 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 8 PM UPDATE...CONFINED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. TOOK MOST OF THE THUNDER OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY HERE ON THE NEAR TERM DESK. ONE ROUND OF DOWNPOURS MOVING THRU AREAS ALONG AND S OF I64 THIS AFTN. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER KY...THE SUN IS POKING THRU AND SOME BL HEATING IS BEING REALIZED. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER WHICH MAY PROPAGATE INTO W ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. CONFIDENCE ON THAT PANNING OUT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. DO THINK A GENERAL LULL WILL BE REALIZED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE DOWNPOURS REDEVELOP ON FRI AS A BAGGY SFC LOW MAKES A RUN INTO THE AREA. DESPITE THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING S OF THE CWA FRI...THINK THE SHRA/TSRA THAT DO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS PWATS MAKE A RUN TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND WHAT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND S OF I64 CORRIDOR THRU 00 SAT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THRU TOMORROW NIGHT DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND S/W TROF. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES OVER THE REMINDER WEST AND NORTH. NAM SUGGEST PWATS FROM 1.9 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT TO 1.7 INCHES SATURDAY. SOME H200 DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL OMEGA AND H850 TO H700 THETA-E AROUND 330K SUGGEST HEAVY OR PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO. COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 80 LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN RESULT SUNDAY PER LESS CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. USED A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO PKB WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH SPREADING SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY HAVE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. EXPECT IFR AT ALL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN FOG OR LOW STRATUS OR BOTH IN SOME CASES. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SOME AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS AND OR LOW STRATUS. SHOULD BE SIMILAR TONIGHT...WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING FOG AND LOW STRATUS. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. IT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS TOMORROW MAY VARY. AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-013>015- 024>027-033>037. OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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