Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 270904 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 504 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak east to west frontal boundary will dissolve over the area by this evening. Several disturbances with heavy rainfall potential Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Any morning dense fog will quickly dissipate by 13Z. A dissipating frontal boundary remains across the northern portion of the area through this evening. The combination of this boundary, together with precipitable water from 1.5 to 2 inches and diurnal heating will be enough to produce showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Some storms could produce localized heavy downpours capable to produce localized water problems along their path. High temperatures will range from around 90 degrees lowlands, to the mid 70s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Several waves, surface and aloft, will impact the forecast area through the end of the week. The first will already be arriving Thursday morning riding along a warm front. Models seem to be coming into better agreement with this now, but with some differences still in place capped POPs around 80 percent. That wave should move through Thursday and head on its way Thursday night and pull a cold front south. A weak upper level shortwave trough follows for Friday and have likely POPs with this. Weak height rises behind this wave for Friday night with just low chance POPs lingering. Next surface wave approaching for Saturday. Models having a bit harder time resolving this one, but both GFS and ECMWF show QPF max across the mountains, so included some likely POPs again for Saturday afternoon across eastern third of CWA. Only minimal changes made to temperatures. With lots of clouds, expecting warm nights with average to just below average daytime highs. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weather looks to remain unsettled for the first part of the extended period as additional disturbances move through the region. Drier weather possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens across the region. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread morning IFR/LIFR fog will quickly dissipate by 13Z. The lifting fog could end as a low level deck mainly across central WV and eastern mountains through 15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail outside any strong storms with brief IFR conditions along their path. Overnight fog could redevelop later tonight for localized IFR/LIFR conditions expected. Surface flow will be light and variable except for strong gusts in thunderstorms this afternoon. Flow aloft will continue light west. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect any TAF site Wednesday afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/27/16 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the previous afternoon or night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.