Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 021018 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 618 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE WEATHER MAY SETTLE DOWN A BIT ON THE 4TH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 07Z GENERALLY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST...BISECTING CWA IN HALF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATH OF THIS LOW...AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...OR TIMING. NAM TAKES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN...WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING AND NORTHERN EXTENT...WHICH KEEPS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. NUMEROUS VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...WILL HELP TO TRIGGER PRECIP AT TIMES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH TIME. MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.7 ACROSS THE SOUTH...COMBINED WITH A WEAK FLOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER/ENHANCE CONVECTION AT TIMES...COULD SEE ISSUES DEVELOP WITH TIME. SOMEWHAT GOOD NEWS IS THAT FFG VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR...AND AROUND 2-2.2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...WILL FOR NOW...CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSS FRI...THE LATTER TRACKING JUST S OF THE FCST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...GIVEN PROGGED PW VALUES IN THE 1.4-1.7 RANGE AND DECNET LOW LEVEL CONVERG4NT INFLOW. 885 FLOW INCREASES TO 25 KT FROM THE SE FOR A TIME MIDDAY FRI OVER THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. THE MENTION OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CONTINUED IN THE HWO FOR THESE AREAS GIVEN A WET PATTERN THERE IN THE NEAR TERM AS WELL. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER EVENS OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE FRI...AS SOME LATE HEATING BEHIND THE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH YIELDS JUST ABOUT AS GOOD A CHANCE IF NOT BETTER THERE AS IN SERN WV...CLOSE TO THE SFC SYSTEM WHERE THE BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. THE KEY TO THE SUMMER HOLIDAY FCST IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN PULLS OUT FRI NT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS...AND WHETHER AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY CAN MANAGE DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY ITSELF...IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A TRAILING UPPER S/W TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES SAT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER SERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH SUNSET AND THE EXITING S/W...THE WEATHER SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EVEN FURTHER SAT NT. BLENDED IN THE MET FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN GFS BASED GUIDANCE AFTER THAT. WITH A DRIER FCST...HAVE HIGHER HIGHS FOR THE 4TH...UP FROM 77 TO 81 AT CRW...FOR EXAMPLE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL DRY US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. SEMI-DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEAK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... IFR/LIFR FOG ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MVFR STRATUS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KHTS TO KCRW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE AFTER 14Z...HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. NUMEROUS WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY 15-03Z...WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN QUESTION. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...SL

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