Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300749 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 349 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trof will keep the weather unsettled into early next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter interlude during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The very warm and muggy summer air remains in place this period, as an upper level trough and weak surface low pressure center reside just to the north and west of the forecast area. This spells the chance for showers and thunderstorms, most likely in the afternoon heating, but further modulated by smaller embedded ripples in the flow. One such feature moving through the middle Ohio Valley early this morning may refire showers and thunderstorms over the northern WV mountains this afternoon. Another may arrive from the west late today and move across this evening. Sped up the timing suggested by the NAM on this one by two to three hours. Areas of low clouds and fog will continue to be common during the overnight and early morning hours. Temperatures on or close to previous forecast and latest guidance except a bit lower than the higher MAV on highs today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Models showing moisture remaining over the region on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are once again possible...more likely in the afternoon and evening hours. By Monday...NAM shows a wave moving over the area that other models are not showing. Some of the other models are showing a vorticity lobe however...which does lend a bit a credence to the NAM solution. Will hedge the forecast a bit just in case...but not fully buy the NAM solution. By Tuesday...NAM still showing moisture over the region while other models are dry. Since current forecast is dry...will stay with consistency for now.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overall...drier to start next week...with high pressure...surface and aloft in control. Upper ridge strengthens across the area mid week...with increasing temperatures. Looking at generally diurnal showers and thunderstorms...mostly in the mountains...although a slight chance cannot be completely ruled out elsewhere. Frontal boundary approaches late in the extended...but at this point...lots of uncertainty in timing. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Still a low to medium confidence forecast as to the extent of stratus and fog overnight. Have IFR developing all sites but dense fog only at PKB and EKN. The stratus will again take much of Saturday morning to mix into an MVFR stratocu deck and then mix out into a VFR cu field for the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible mainly across the middle Ohio Valley and northern WV overnight, and then most likely these same area Saturday afternoon. Fog and stratus are likely to begin forming again by 06Z Sunday, but showers and thunderstorms remain possible Saturday night. Flow surface and aloft will be mainly light southwest. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The fog and low cloud forecast for overnight into Saturday morning depends upon higher clouds and precipitation, with dense fog possible at any of the sites. A thunderstorm may directly impact an airport with IFR conditions anytime through 06z Sunday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/30/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M M H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions in low clouds and/or fog during the overnight into the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, but mainly Monday, which would in turn make Tuesday morning a better candidate for fog and stratus.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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