Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290554 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 154 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings a stellar night, before yielding to a southwest flow of warmer and more humid air Thursday through Saturday. Cold front crosses late Saturday/Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 150 AM Thursday... Adjusted overnight lows a bit lower and dew points a bit higher per current trends, otherwise forecast remains on track. As of 9 PM Wednesday... No changes. As of 200 PM Wednesday... As usual in very tranquil weather, models are in very good agreement, with high pressure dominating our area this period. Our high pressure center will continue to shift to our east. Thus, after a milder night, increasing southerly winds and abundant sunshine on Thursday will boost temperatures well into the 80s, along with a modest increase in humidity.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Wednesday... Getting the convergence of a weak upper wave over the southeast and an approaching upper trough and cold front with gradually increasing POPs over the region Friday. Temperatures and dewpoints continue their reach into the upper 80s/ near 70 respectively, back into a more summer type pattern. Keeping the area in general thunder for now, and the QPF amounts look manageable with these systems heading through Saturday and cold front arrival. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 PM Wednesday... 850mb temperatures get knocked back again late this weekend behind the front, with high pressure regaining control for the beginning of the work week. No major temperature fluctuations expected overall, with the next chance for rain arriving midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 210 AM Thursday... VFR weather in light southwest flow with high pressure anchored off of the middle Atlantic coast. There will be a patchy, high stratocu deck Thursday afternoon and night, and high clouds coming off convective complexes upstream. Strengthening southwest flow aloft overnight will prevent fog formation overnight and Thursday night, but did carry a TEMPO for MVFR at EKN overnight as they may remain decoupled. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR in TEMPO group for EKN overnight may not happen. If it were to form and actually go IFR, that would be rather brief given less than 30 min of IFR Wednesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 06/29/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...TRM

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