Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 061609 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1036 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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10 AM UPDATE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON PER NEW GUIDANCE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH. THIS EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE. STILL DO SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR AND THE MARCH SUN. BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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16Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z... HIGH PRESSURE. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SNOW PACK TO LIFT INTO MAINLY A SCT 2000-3000 FT AGL LAYER THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS VERY MOISTURE STARVED FOR PRECIP. THUS...VFR MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H M H M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. ALL TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO RIVER HAVE RECEDED. EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW RISE TODAY. BACKWATER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL THE RIVER RECEDES BELOW FLOOD OR ACTION STAGES.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...TRM/JMV LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ HYDROLOGY...JS

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