Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171833 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 233 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT POSSIBLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LAST OF THE STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS HAS NOW ERODED WITH JUST ENOUGH TIME LEFT FOR A LITTLE DIURNAL CUMULUS IN THIS AREA. LOOKING AT A CLEAR EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. NAM AND GFS HAVE A WEAKLY DISCERNIBLE TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT SHOULD BRING PASSING CLOUD COVER IN A MID LEVEL DECK TONIGHT. IN AN OTHERWISE SOLID SET UP FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN...THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON THAT FORMATION AS WE GO DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THINK RIGHT NOW THE COVERAGE WILL BE OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN NATURE...AND WITH ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...STILL THINK FOG IS A GOOD BET. ANYTHING THICKER/BETTER COVERAGE THAN THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY THWART THE VALLEY FOG TO SOME EXTENT. OPTED OUT OF THE DRIZZLE ON THOSE EASTERN SLOPES MENTIONED ABOVE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT DESPITE THE LOW STRATUS IN PLACE THERE. FOR THURSDAY...EXPECTING PRESSURE RISES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT...TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES UPWARDS JUST A TOUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND SHOULD ALSO SEE LOW 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... VERY QUIET PATTERN WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO BE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW CREEPING NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TO THE SOUTH GETS PUSHED EAST AND OFFSHORE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL BY MONDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD FORMATION TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PLAY HAVOC WITH THE AVIATION/FOG FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z...BUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS DO NOT SEE ENOUGH THERE TO KEEP LIFR CONDITIONS FROM FORMING. WITH NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION OTHERWISE...A TUG OF WAR WILL ENSUE. GIVEN THE QUICKNESS AND THICKNESS OF THE VALLEY FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS LESS THE AFOREMENTIONED PASSING CLOUDS...WILL KEEP THE LIFR IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE RH SIGNATURE IS NOT STRONG PER SE...AND IS BETTER SEEN ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ABOVE 7KFT. HOWEVER...THIS WEAK TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GOING WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE THICKNESS AND COVERAGE OF THE MID LEVEL DECK TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/JR NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...26

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