Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230636 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 236 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. DID LOWER POPS A TOUCH THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROF AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND NO REAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS IN DURNING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDDS AND CONCENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...5TH NIGHT. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WARMING FOR TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES. ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS 12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH FORECAST ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AT LOCATIONS LIKE PKB AND HTS...AND ESPECIALLY WHAT IMPACT THAT WOULD HAVE ON POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION. LOOKS LIKE HTS COULD SCATTER OUT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND HINTED AT SOME FOG THERE. COULD SEE IT GOING EITHER WAY...AND IF FOG FORMS COULD BE DENSER THAN FORECAST. ELSEWHERE HAVE CLOUDS REMAINING INTO TOMORROW...THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING INTO A CU DECK AND SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION AT HTS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/23/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H L L L L L H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26 NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...MZ

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