-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 260522
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CHARGE THROUGH SUNDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...INCREASING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1 AM UPDATE... ADDED SOME SPRINKLES TO EXTREME WESTERN CWA PER
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ELECTED TO EXPAND FROST ADV TO OH RVR ACROSS N LOWLANDS FOR
TONIGHT. DWPTS CURRENTLY RUNNING 34 TO 35F UP THERE. WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING PKB AND CKB IN THE MID 30S...FEEL GOOD ABOUT OUTLYING
AREAS FOR FROST ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING OUT RURAL MANY OF THOSE CO
ARE AND ARE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS FOR THE AREA. MID/HI CLDS WILL CONT
TO AFFECT NE KY/S WV/SW VA TONIGHT WITH DWPTS SAFELY OUT OF FROST
ZONE ATTM. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED REGARDING N EXTENT OF CIRRUS
UPSTREAM BUT MDLS INDICATE THIS THINNING OUT AS IT APPROACHES SE
OH AND N WV. MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP BLO FRZ TONIGHT BUT SOME WAA ALOFT
TO KEEP HIGHER UP ABV FRZ...HENCE NO UPGRADE TO FROST ADV FOR
RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS. WILL MENTION IN ADV MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP
BLO FRZ. WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME RVR FG WHERE CLDS STAY OUT.

MORE OF SAME FOR TOMORROW WITH MID/HI CLDS ACROSS GENERALLY SAME
AREAS AS TDY. MDLS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WHICH
IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED NUMBERS FROM PREV
SHIFT...THUS NO CHANGE NEEDED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING.
GFS IS SLOWEST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING LESS
SPREAD. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS...BUT NOT INCLUDE THE GFS.
MODEL DYNAMICS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUES NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PUSHING NORTH INTO CANADA EXTENDS A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
SE OHIO THROUGH CENTRAL WV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AM...HELD POPS
OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WEDS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY EXITING TO THE
NORTH AND SW FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WEST ATLANTIC
ENHANCING UPSLOPE OVER EASTERN MTNS...WITH MOISTURE ADV FROM SW FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS MTN ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THURS AFT INTO THURS EVENING...MORE OF THE SAME
FOR FRI AFT AND EVE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF FRONT APPROACHING NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EURO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD BY ABOUT 12-18HRS...WENT WITH A MIX OF THE TWO OVERNIGHT
SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONTINUED IDEA OF PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...KEEPING IT IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW MVFR/IFR FOG SATURDAY
MORNING TOO. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING THROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT N/NW FLOW LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING TO CALM AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/26/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ011-019-020-
     028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/JM
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MZ