Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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131 FXUS61 KRLX 191118 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 618 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure pushes into the region tonight. Active pattern returns with a warm front crossing Friday followed by a stronger system early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 615 AM Thursday... Several forecast challenges through the near term period. The first is the clouds through this morning. Currently have low stratus in place across much of CWA, however southern edge is slowly eroding. Continued this trend, relying fairly heavily on the 4kNAM. Even as the low clouds erode, cirrus is already spreading over the forecast area ahead of surface warm front and upper level negatively tilted trough that will arrive tonight. And that is the second forecast challenge -- timing precip with the system overnight. Did not make any huge changes to previous forecast, although did revise timing and tried to tighten the leading gradient used a blend of the 4kNAM and WRFnmm. Have an area of likely POPs entering from the SW around 00Z tonight, and transitioning NE across the forecast area overnight. Generally have 0.2-0.3 inches of rain with this. Held off on any mention of thunder due to the time of day, but with decent upper level support would not be overly surprised to get a rumble or two. Although it does look like better upper level support may be lagging behind by a couple hours. Expecting a mild day today, with the pattern of above normal highs continuing. Have temps dropping a little late this evening, but then rebounding some through the pre-dawn hours of Friday as WAA kicks in.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Thursday... Warm front lifts north on Friday for another round of precipitation with 0.25" of QPF expected and temperatures still remaining well above normal. In between systems Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 AM Thursday... Deepening 979 mb low approaches from the south on Sunday night with its trajectory just to our east leaving the area in the comma head which could lay down a line of high QPF amounts and this bears watching for flooding concerns. At the same time, cold air begins to wrap around the system from the north and snow may be a concern especially in the mountains. Snow showers should linger into Tuesday in the mountains while it still looks warm enough for rain elsewhere. Weak front brushes the area Wednesday. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 615 AM Thursday... Range of categories from LIFR to VFR across the forecast area early this morning. Expect a gradual improvement through the morning, with northern sites and BKW taking the longest to improve. A warm front will lift through tonight with showers. For now will keep things MVFR, however could be brief IFR in heavier showers...mainly after 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of stratus deck clearing could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 01/19/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L M M H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M L M H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in rain into Friday, and then again at times Sunday through Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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