Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 141334 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 934 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather to start the work and school week. High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but returning to unsettled pattern to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 935 AM Monday... Adjusted temps based on observed temps and cloud cover. Increased POPs across northwestern WV according to newest model runs and radar showing rain filling in this morning. Overall forecast was on track. As of 630 AM Monday... Surface trough and upper level ripple/vort max now pushing showers into the forecast area from the southwest. Expect this trend to continue into mid morning. Have likely POPs across the mountains of WV into SW VA today, with scattered showers across the WV lowlands tapering off to isolated shower mention along the Ohio River. Models -- other than the GFS -- show activity decreasing this evening. But then increasing again overnight as another wave passes. Opted to just go with isolated to scattered wording for showers tonight along and east/south of the Ohio River.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Monday... Weak impulse early on Tuesday may bring some scattered showers, but high pressure builds for a drier stretch of weather Tuesday night through midday Thursday. A system approaches Thursday afternoon for increased potential for showers/tstorms. Dynamics suggest a small potential for stronger storms, but believe most energy will be to our north for this system. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 AM Monday... An organized system moves to our northwest on Friday draping a cold front through our region for showers and tstorms early. High pressure builds Saturday for drier weather until the next system arrives Sunday. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 630 AM Monday... Surface trough and upper level disturbance brining showers today. With most of the activity expected to be light, only included MVFR across the mountains. Models fairly insistent on fog formation tonight, however also expect fairly decent cloud cover remaining. Opted to include IFR at typical sites due to rain today, but not very confident on this solution. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and category in showers today may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms this week. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending on clouds.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...CS/MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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