Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 142007 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 402 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE HEADING EAST MONDAY. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... QUITE DAY WEATHER WISE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING BY TO THE NORTH. DO HAVE SOME PESKY STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN REST OF CWA AND SE FLOW INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THIS EVENING...BUT LIKELY FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HAVE HAD ANOTHER DAY TO DRY THE GROUND...BUT STILL ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT MAY BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE EXTRA DAY OF DRYING. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SIDED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV ON TEMPS TONIGHT. LOCALLY RUN COOP BASED MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST EVEN COLDER...GIVING VERY SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS MID 30S. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT LOW...BUT DO HAVE SOME PIXELS INTO THE UPPER 30S AROUND GLADY. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A BIT OF MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTH OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THEN PUSH EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND EXITING THE FORECAST BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK STRONG AT ALL SO STICKING WITH MAX POPS ONLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AND EXPECTING LOW QPF WHERE THE SHOWERS DO HIT. SKIES TO CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A QUIET LIGHT WIND TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WEST WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG A LIKELY OUTCOME. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS AT START OF OF THIS TIME FRAME...WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE INTO SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WE REEMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE FIGURED FOR DAY 7/SUNDAY. THIS KEEPS THE DOOR SHUT FOR THE RETURN OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. WITH HIGH CENTER JUST TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...WILL TRY TO HAVE MINIMUM TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...INCLUDED JUST THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS E OF ELKINS. FIGURING NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HAZARDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH A E AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW THRU 850 MBS...DID KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...AND MENTIONED A 20 SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY IN THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE. WILL ACCEPT WPC MEDIUM RANGE AND START INCREASING POPS AHEAD OF THE DAY 7 FEATURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR MOST PLACES...EXCEPT AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE STILL STUCK IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE PESKY MVFR STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH. DO EXPECT THIS TO SCATTER OUT SOME THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE HAD ANOTHER DAY TO DRY OUT THE GROUND...BUT STILL EXPECT DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. SLOWED TIMING DOWN 1-2 HOURS ON FORMATIONS FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE STUCK WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. THINK LOW STRATUS WILL REFORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO GIVE EKN SOME FOG EARLY BUT THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR STRATUS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/JR NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...MZ

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