Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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910 FXUS61 KRLX 151738 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1238 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak wave crosses today. A clipper system passes north of the area tonight. A weak system brings some light rain Sunday afternoon and night. Another clipper crosses Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 935 AM Friday... Only minor tweaks to the forecast this morning. As of 615 AM Friday... Forecast on track. GOES-R imagery shows baroclinic leaf enhancement over the upper Ohio Valley, in line with slight chance PoPs over the central WV mountains today. As of 350 AM Friday... A transient inverted surface trough near the mountains, ahead of an upper level short wave trough, may get the low level moisture depth just deep enough for light snow showers there, especially as the top of the cloud cools into the favored crystal growth temperatures later this morning. The upper level short wave pushes a cold front through late today. Strengthening westerly upslope flow in its wake, together with the short wave, continues the chance for snow showers in the northern mountains later today and tonight, and even back across the far northern tier of the forecast area for a time this evening, in deeper moisture associated with stronger mid level forcing. Any snow accumulation will be limited to the higher mountainous terrain and windward slopes, where an inch or two is possible. Winds will strengthen and become gusty in the wake of the front later today and tonight, with peak gusts around 20 mph across the lowlands this afternoon, diminishing tonight, but gusts increasing to around 40 mph across the higher ridges tonight. Low level cold advection behind the front this evening quickly reverses to warm advection overnight. Ridge top temperatures level off, even increase as a result, keeping wind chills from getting any lower than minus five or so there. Temperatures were adjusted a little upward early this morning, and again tonight, in an atmosphere that remains well mixed until overnight tonight. Trended a little higher with dewpoints early this morning into today. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM Friday... Overall, warmer and drier over the weekend. Any lingering snow showers will taper off by early Saturday morning across the northern mountains, as drier air takes hold. High pressure, with a warm southerly flow, and building upper heights, will allow temperatures Saturday and Sunday to top out in the mid to upper 40s. A weak disturbance crossing on Sunday, will allow for light rain showers, but overall, minimal impacts. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 AM Friday... Warmer temperatures, along with unsettled weather for the long term period. Another system will affect the area in the Monday night through Tuesday night time frame. Enough warm air will be in place that all precipitation should start out as rain, but transition to a light rain/snow mix across the northern mountains late Tuesday night. Gusty winds expected with this system, particularly Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure with dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday, with another system at the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 PM Friday... A weak wave is moving over the region. This wave is creating a large hole in the VFR/MVFR stratus deck. The stratus deck will gradually raise some this afternoon with the hole propagating with the upper level wave. Some cold air advection behind the wave will allow for some weak upslope this evening in the northern WV mountains. This will allow the stratus deck to solidify on the western slopes of the mountains and lower some this evening. Later tonight, the stratus deck will gradually dissipate as warm air advection sets in. After the stratus deck dissipates, VFR conditions can be expected for Saturday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Snow showers could cause restrictions in northeastern WV this evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L H M M H H H H H M L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H L L M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...RPY

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