Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 270748
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
248 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017
WARMER WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 240 AM Monday...
This will be a transition period toward warmer and unsettled
weather. Models in very good agreement on an upper disturbance
lifting a weak warm front northward across the area today.
Models actually split the energy with this upper feature as it
approaches, with one piece tracking mainly across the north
portion of the area, and a second piece tracking south of the
area. This means while clouds will be widespread today across
the area, precip chances will most likely be restricted to the
north. Since the air is initially quite dry, will keep highest
pops in the chance range today up north, and any QPF that may
occur would be very light at best. Despite the clouds today,
southerly flow behind the warm front will boost temperatures.
Look for highs today in the lower 50s north to the lower 60s far
For tonight, the upper disturbance and warm front will be north
of the area, but another upper disturbance will approach late
tonight from the southwest. So, we start out dry and bring a
low chance of rain showers late, especially west. With the
clouds and south breeze tonight, low temperatures will only be
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE UNDER DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING
ANOMALOUS PWATS OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY
12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DRIVING
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE AND
CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THIS PAST SATURDAY, BUT CURRENT TIMING
HAS THIS FRONT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
INSTEAD OF OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S AND EVEN IF THERE IS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, CAPE VALUES
STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. VERY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD YIELDS AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILE WITH
CURRENT GFS INDICATING 60 TO 70 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE
MODEST INSTABILITY COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL, BUT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS THE FORECAST DETAILS UNFOLD.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT PRECIP MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTS, BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND MOST
OF THE AREA HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS,
WITH NORTHERN AREAS AND THE MOUNTAINS BEING MOST LIKELY TO SEE
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z Monday thru 06Z Tuesday...
As of 120 AM Monday...
An upper level disturbance will lift a weak warm front northward
across the area today, with winds becoming southerly 3 to 8 KTS.
Today...This disturbance and warm front will bring widespread
clouds today, and a chance of a light rain shower across the
north. However, the low levels are quite dry when this
disturbance and warm front move across, thus, VFR ceilings
4000-10000 feet and VSBY AOA 7SM will generally prevail. The
exception may be over southeast Ohio and northern WV where brief
periods of MVFR are possible in scattered light showers.
Tonight...As one disturbance lifts north of the area early,
another will approach toward the end of the period, with a low
chance of a shower in the west by 06Z. In any case, expect VFR
conditions and light south winds.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers are not included in the TAFs
due to chances of precipitation being below 50 percent.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 02/27/17
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.