Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 062007 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 307 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO TOMORROW...WITH A TRANQUIL FEBRUARY ENVIRONMENT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH T850 ABOUT 5C WARMER AND ALSO WITH POSSIBLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS EFFICIENT. WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO DECIDED TO BUMP HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TOMORROW...WITH OVERALL SIMILAR CONDITIONS FORECASTED AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AIRMASS AND PRECIPITATION CHARACTERIZE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH A WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SINCE THE OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...RELIED ON THE NAM FOR THE DETAILS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE SURFACE SYSTEM COUNTERPART AS THEY TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...AND ONCE AGAIN...HAVE USED LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION TO TIME THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. EXPECTING A SLIVER OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND TRIED TO REPRESENT THIS IN A MARKED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND DROPPING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TIMING OF THIS IS ALWAYS TRICKY...HOWEVER. SHOULD BE COMPLETELY RESATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE SNOW CHANCES INCREASING EARLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS MORE OF AN AUTOCONVECTIVE SCENARIO AS OPPOSED TO AN UPSLOPE CONDITION DUE TO THE 1000-850MB STREAMLINES THAT ARE MORE WESTERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY/PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAINS. NOT DISCOUNTING THE TERRAIN INFLUENCES COMPLETELY THOUGH. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER MINUS TEENS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING...EXPECT VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY. ALSO...HAVE TAKEN THE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY DOWN FROM THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS A FEW NOTCHES...WITH THE THINKING THAT ABOVE FREEZING VALUES WILL NOT BE A GOOD PLAY HERE. GUIDANCE TENDS TO OVERPLAY THESE SITUATIONS AND HAVE THE AREA TOO WARM...SO WILL KEEP IT COLD AREA WIDE. FOR AMOUNTS...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES IN SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE IT NOT BEING A PERFECT UPSLOPE SITUATION AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THINK THERE WILL BE BETTER ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL BE A SLOW ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVER TIME IN OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER THE LOWLANDS. AS FAR AS FUTURE HEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS GOES...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON DURATION/HOW LONG IT TAKES TO GET THE ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH AS OF RIGHT NOW...SPANS WELL INTO DOUBLE DIGIT HOURS. HWO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS SUCH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...JW/MC AVIATION...MPK

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