Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011830 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 230 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS NEARBY MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...IT RETREATED A BIT IF ANYTHING. SHARP GRADIENTS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...SKY COVER AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ACCOMPANY THIS SHALLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONVECTION FIRED IN THE SUNSHINE OVER THE MOUNTAINS E OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD DIE DOWN / MOVE OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND THE SUN SETS. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...TAKING SOME OF THE GRADIENT WITH IT. IT WILL ALSO TAKE THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS JUST W OF THE FCST AREA RIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW REMAINING W OF THE AREA...SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS TUE. THE WARM...MOIST AIR WILL NOT BE THAT FAR TO OUR SE...AND THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OUR SW VA COUNTIES. TRIED TO DEPICT A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS BUT STILL ENDED UP WITH MOSTLY A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BRIEF DOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE LOWLANDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE REMAINS STUCK IN THE MOUNTAINS SO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY KEEPS US IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PROGRESSION OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW...INITIALLY OVER DEEP S. KEPT SOME MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN THRU THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE BIG CHNAGE IS THAT TYHE COLD FRONT DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING..IT ACTUALLY RETREATED A BIT IF ANYTHING. THIS ALLOWED FOR VFR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWLANDS WERE SOCKED IN IFR TO LOW MVFR MAINLY ON CIGS. THESE SITES WERE MIXING HIGHER THROUGH THE MVFR ZONE BY MIDDAY. CONVECTION FIRED UP IN THE MOUNTAINS...THIS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE W OF THE AREA WILL MOVE E TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH IT WHILE PUSHING THE FRONT E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONITONS DETERIOATING TO IFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IMPROVEMENT ON TUE WILL BE RATEHR SLOW. LIGHT SW SFC FLOW E OF THE FRONT AND N SFC FLOW W OF IT WILL BECOME LIGHT N TO CALM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUE...TRENDING TOWARD SE BY TUE AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SW SE OF THE OHIO RIVER E OF THE FRONT ALOFT...AND LIGHT NE NW OF THE OHIO RIVER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONT WILL DRIVE TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY AT EKN...BKW AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU OF WV. OVAEALL TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL VARY. .AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS CEILINGS POSSIBLE WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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